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Let’s take a look at players to buy and sell this week. And be sure to check out our weekly trade value chart with updated values for all players.
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Fantasy Football Trade Advice: Players to Buy & Sell
Players to Buy
Dalvin Cook didn’t seem limited by his shoulder injury. 22 touches for 86 yards in London, but Alexander Mattison got the TD on just four touches. Woof. Still, his 85% opportunity share is a top-8 mark for a running back, so I’d be looking to buy low after he missed out on the TD score. The Bears’ run defense – last in yards allowed per game – provides the perfect bounce-back spot.
Last season, Tee Higgins earned a higher target rate per route run than Ja’Marr Chase. It’s the same story this season. Higgins’ 22.4% target rate per route run is nearly identical to Chase’s this season (22.2%). Over the last three weeks, both guys are healthy and Higgins has a higher target share (25% versus 24%), air yards share (38% versus 35%) and higher points per game average (19.6 versus 11.9). Both guys should be viewed as fantasy WR1s. And Chase should be bought on the cheap if managers are concerned he is firmly the WR2 on the offense. His 100% route participation and standing as the WR2 in expected fantasy points say otherwise.
It’s happening. Breece Hall dominated the touches over Michael Carter (19 vs 11) in Week 4. He posted 17 carries versus Carter’s 9. Including the game-winning TD. Then consider his season-high 66% snap share and 63% route participation – we are COOKING with gas people. If someone in your league is still snoozing on Hall’s newfound bell-cow role, you need to BUY.
Drake London ranks No. 1 in the NFL in target share (35%) as a 21-year-old rookie. Fantasy football doesn’t have to be hard. Buy.
It hasn’t been great for Gabriel Davis since he returned from his ankle injury two weeks ago. He’s been running a route on nearly every one of Josh Allen‘s dropbacks but has done little to nothing in the production department. Just one catch on 3 targets in Week 4 after a 3-catch outing in Week 3. However, it was reported that he reaggravated his ankle injury and the Bills did not have other healthy WRs during the rainy game. Both Jamison Crowder and Isaiah McKenzie left with injuries. Crowder is going to miss a lot of time with a broken ankle. I’d be a buyer of Davis now, with hopes that he gets healthier. Because his role is just too good in a high-powered offense. And it’s not like anybody is stepping up – aside from Devin Singletary – and seizing a high target share behind Stefon Diggs.
J.K. Dobbins led the backfield with 17 touches for 63 yards (50% snap share) and two scores (4 carries inside the 10-yard line). The Ravens RB getting goal-line touches is super key for his fantasy success. And he’s been low-key used as a receiver, with 6 targets in the past two games. Expect the usage to climb with Justice Hill suffering a hamstring injury.
Josh Jacobs (RB – LV)
Feed Josh. Week 4 was a monster for Jacobs who rushed for 144 yards on 28 carries. But the best part about his day was that he rolled over his receiving usage from Week 3. He caught 5 balls on 6 targets while running a route on 64% of dropbacks. With receiving usage and back-to-back weeks with a top-3 elite opportunity share (92% in Week 4), Jacobs has the chance to finish the season as fantasy RB1. Zamir White had just two carries and Brandon Bolden one target in Week 4.
Buy Garrett Wilson. The Jets WR finished second in targets and route participation in Zach Wilson‘s first start of the 2022 season. Only Corey Davis saw more targets (7), but Wilson ran more routes. Leverage Davis’ TD score and Wilson’s two-catch game to buy low on the talented rookie. 22% target share this season.
The Muth is going to get loose with Kenny Pickett presumably taking over as the Steelers starting quarterback. He saw a 36% target share in Week 4 after a down Week 3, and half of his targets (8 total) came in the second half from his rookie QB. He tied rookie George Pickens for the most targets in Pickett’s debut.
Devin Singletary led the Buffalo backfield (15 touches). 80% opportunity share, 88% snap share. Zack Moss had three touches, mostly coming on the drive after Singletary fumbled. And James Cook had zero (1 target). But most importantly, Singletary was relied on in the passing game again…with four catches for 47 yards on five targets while running a route on 79% of dropbacks. He’s not doing much on the ground, but fantasy managers should be all over the receiving usage he’s seeing in the Bills’ offense. Nobody is threatening his workload.
David Njoku season LIVES ON. Seven targets. 5 catches for 73 yards. Ran a route on 87% of dropbacks. With this consistent usage over the past two weeks, Njoku is an every-week tight end play.
George Pickens tied for the most targets in Kenny Pickett‘s debut with four in the second half of Week 4. He converted his targets into 71 receiving yards in his first 100-yard game as a pro. Not to mention, Pickens earned a 48% air yards share in Week 4, seeing four targets of 20-plus yards. He ranks second to only Chris Olave in deep targets this season. Buy the Georgia product.
Buy low on Dalton Schultz. The Cowboys TE reclaimed his pre-injury usage in Week 4 running a route on 79% of dropbacks while playing 90% of the snaps. However, he struggled with Cooper Rush at quarterback again, as he has done in every single game Rush has started for Dallas the past two seasons. But with Dak Prescott coming back, there’s hope Schultz can become more involved. He’s dirt cheap and might even be dropped to waivers.
Players to Sell
Sell high on Austin Ekeler. He finished Week 4 with 13 carries for just 60 yards against the league’s worst run defense, but scored 3 touchdowns! However, he combined for just three more carries than Sony Michel and Joshua Kelley combined (10). Sell high. Keenan Allen coming back isn’t going to increase his target share.
Despite an 82% opportunity share in Week 4, Harris saw zero targets all game. With an absolutely brutal schedule upcoming for Pittsburgh against Buffalo, Tampa Bay, Miami, Philadelphia, Cincy and New Orleans…the time is now to get out from underneath Harris. His bulletproof role from last season isn’t the same.
Diontae Johnson was targeted just twice by Kenny Pickett in the second half. Conversely, rookie George Pickens was targeted four times for 71 receiving yards. Considering both guys are on the field for the majority of the team’s offensive passing plays, don’t be surprised to see Johnson’s target grip loosen to Pickens’ benefit with a new QB under center.
Sell Elijah Moore. First game with Wilson at QB and Moore finished fifth in targets (4). Woof. Just a 14% target share despite leading the team in routes run.
Sell high on Rashaad Penny. The dude shredded the league’s worst run defense. Next up are the New Orleans Saints. Perfect time to sell high on an injury-prone Penny with Kenneth Walker vying to eat into Penny’s workload as the season progresses.
Miami has a Chase Edmonds problem. Instead of using their prized free agent acquisition, they are opting for 30-year-old journeyman Raheem Mostert as the RB1 in the offense. Edmonds played just 28% of the snaps on Thursday night to Mostert’s 72% snap share. Mostert was running 67% of the routes and dominating touches 17 to 7. Edmonds has been able to survive off red zone touches converting to TDs the last two weeks, but that won’t last on such low volume. Sell high.
Beyond our fantasy football content, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Trade Analyzer – which allows you to instantly find out if a trade offer benefits you or your opponent – to our Trade Finder – which suggests trades that will help you improve your team – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
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