Fantasy Football Thursday Night Football Primer: Colts vs. Broncos (Week 5)

Every week, I’ll be writing a comprehensive primer on every NFL matchup and all of the relevant players, matchups, pace and playcalling notes, and injuries. It covers everything you need to know when setting your lineups. But since that article is massive and requires a full pot of coffee, we’re also going to offer these more focused matchup overviews. Now, let’s dive into this Dolphins vs. Bengals matchup in Cincinnati on Thursday Night Football.

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Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos

• DEN -3.5, O/U 43.5
• Colts vs. Broncos Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• It won’t shock anyone, but this game likely crawls as the Colts are only 17th in neutral pace, followed by Denver at 24th.
• The passing volume won’t wow anyone, either. The Colts are tenth in neutral passing rate, which could climb if Jonathan Taylor misses, but Denver is only 17th after four games.

Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan: After four weeks of football, Ryan sits as the QB22 in fantasy, and that’s about where to view him this week as a low-end QB2. Ryan has been a game manager to this point. He is 25th in PFF passing grade with the fourth-lowest big-time throw rate and seventh-lowest aDOT. The matchup is brutal as Denver is sixth in pass defense DVOA with the third-lowest yards per attempt and passing touchdown rate allowed. If the secondary isn’t giving Ryan fits, the Broncos’ pass rush will. Denver is fourth in blitz rate and 12th in pressure rate. Ryan has fallen apart against the blitz, ranking 29th in PFF passing grade and 24th in blitzed passer rating.

Russell Wilson: This is the Russell Wilson breakout game. The Colts are a zone-heavy pass funnel that lends itself to Wilson airing it out this week. Indianapolis is 28th in pass defense DVOA utilizing zone coverage on 61-69% of their cornerbacks’ snaps. Wilson is 12th in yards per attempt and 14th in completion rate and accuracy rating against zone coverage. His play has drastically improved over the last two games. Over that short stretch, he’s tenth in PFF passing grade, eighth in big-time throw rate, and ninth in adjusted completion rate (minimum 25 dropbacks). Start him confidently this week as a top-ten quarterback option.

Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor: has been ruled out for this game.

Nyheim Hines: Hines has played 28-45% of the snaps weekly with a 12.7% Target share. He’s averaged 6.3 touches and 31.1 total yards. He remains one of the league’s best receiving backs, ranking fourth in PFF receiving grade and yards per route run (minimum ten targets). Denver is 16th in DVOA against pass-catching backs with the 12th-highest yards per reception allowed. With Taylor out, Hines could step up as the leader of this backfield. Let’s travel back in time to the pre-Taylor Colts era. In 2018, Hines had four games in which he played 58% of the snaps or higher (averaged 66.7% of the snaps), averaging 14.5 touches (averaged seven carries, 8.5 targets) and 65.2 total yards, with the bulk of his production coming through the air. Denver has the 14th-highest rushing success rate and ninth-highest explosive run rate allowed. The Broncos are 25th or lower in adjusted line yards, second-level yards, and open field yards. My bet is that Hines leads the running back group in usage, with Deon Jackson or Phillip Lindsay working in on early downs. Hines could soak up all of the red zone work in the process. Hines is an RB3 with more love in PPR formats.

Phillip Lindsay: Lindsay probably gets called up from the practice squad for this game. With his role up in the air and a possible split with Jackson impending, he’s unplayable in fantasy. This preseason Lindsay looked like a back that’s cooked. With his 16 preseason rushing attempts, he could only conjure up one missed tackle and 2.19 yards after contact per attempt. You have better options to consider flexing in Week 5.

Deon Jackson: It’s a similar story for the second-year former UDFA. Jackson has 15 career carries with 2.07 yards after contact per attempt and two missed tackles forced. His preseason numbers this year don’t look any more promising either (1.82 yards after contact per attempt). Jackson isn’t worthy of a roster spot, much less a flex start. These middling early down options coupled with Hines should make anyone with Hines feel better about his ability to grab more of the backfield work this week.

Weeks 4

Melvin Gordon: Gordon put the ball on the turf last week and then seemingly got parked on the bench. Before Week 4, he averaged 14 touches and 60 total yards working in tandem with Javonte Williams. With Williams now out, Gordon looks to be the lead back. His tires seem bald, which doesn’t bode well for Gordon. Among 57 running backs with at least 15 carries, he’s ranked 40th in yards after contact per attempt and 38th in PFF’s elusive rating. He’s managed only one run of 10 plus yards with his 37 carries. Gordon is a low-end RB2/high-end RB3 in a horrible matchup. Indy has been a shutdown unit against the run. They have allowed the seventh-lowest rushing success rate and EPA. They have stonewalled running backs to the second-lowest explosive run rate and sixth-lowest rushing yards per game.

Mike Boone: Last week Boone mixed in with 36% of the snaps, four touches, and 29 total yards. He saw a higher Target share with a higher route run rate than Gordon. This is such a small sample that it could easily be noise. If Boone takes over a larger portion of the passing down work, he could be flex worthy in deep leagues. Indy is 20th in DVOA against receiving backs with the fifth-most receptions and seventh-most receiving yards allowed. This could just be another feather in the cap for Gordon if he garners that work. It would have to be a deep league and dire situation for me to consider playing Boone this week.

Wide Receivers

Michael Pittman: Even after tossing a dud in Week 4, Pittman is the WR14 in fantasy points per game. He’s handled a 23.1% Target share with 24.2% of the team’s air yards as the 31st highest graded wide receiver per PFF (minimum ten targets). Pittman has seen at least nine targets in two of his three games surpassing 70 receiving yards in those contests, so we can chalk up the Week 4 wet fart to being a bump in the road. While the volume should bounce back this week we should temper expectations against a tough secondary with Denver. Pittman will run about 77% of his routes against Patrick Surtain ll and Ronald Darby. Surtain has given up a 57.7% catch rate and 67.1 passer rating. Darby has been even tougher with a 47.1% catch rate and 64.1 passer rating allowed. Surtain could shadow Pittman like he did D.K. Metcalf in Week 1. In that game, he followed Metcalf on 76% of his routes, limiting him to 35 receiving yards on six targets.

Parris Campbell: It’s not Halloween but Campbell is a ghost masquerading as an NFL receiver. He’s only drawn an 8% Target share and 9% target per route run clip with 0.64 yards per route run. You shouldn’t have Campbell on any rosters at this point, but if you do, there is no way that you’re even remotely considering starting him.

Alec Pierce: Despite his 80-yard receiving outing last week, Pierce isn’t startable in any format. While Pittman and Campbell are full-time players in this offense, Pierce is not. He’s only seen a 10.7% Target share this year and hasn’t surpassed a 50% route run rate since Week 1. Last week he split routes with Ashton Dulin and Michael Strachan.

Courtland Sutton: Sutton has been the alpha we thought he would be. He’s the WR13 in fantasy commanding a 27.8% Target share (14th) and 36.3% air yard share (ninth). He’s 19th in yards per route run immediately behind Cooper Kupp (minimum ten targets). He’s tied with Jeudy for the team lead in deep targets. Wilson will chuck it deep this week against a secondary that’s 30th in DVOA against deep passing. Sutton will run about 85% of his routes against Stephon Gilmore and Isaiah Rodgers. Gilmore has allowed a 60.9% catch rate and 79.6 passer rating. Rodgers took over for Brandon Facyson last week. In his career, Rodgers (70 targets) has surrendered a 62.9% catch rate and 78.5 passer rating. Sutton is a top 15 wide receiver.

Jerry Jeudy: Jeudy has two games this year (Week 1 & 4) in which he played a full complement of snaps (due to injury). In those games, he saw an 18.5% Target share with 22% of the team’s air yards. He ran from the slot on 69% of his routes. Jeudy could easily lead the team in receiving this week as he’ll be matching up with one of my favorite corners to target in fantasy, Kenny Moore. Moore has been burnt this year to the tune of a 75% catch rate and 140.8 passer rating. Jeudy is a top 20 wide receiver option in Week 5.

Tight Ends

Mo Alie-Cox: Alie-Cox is the only Colts’ tight end to bother with. Kylen Granson saw four targets last week, but his 41.5% route run rate equals trap. The gentle red zone giant has seen his route run rate climb each week from 35.2% to 63.4% in Week 4. He’s handled a 9.3% Target share with three red zone looks (tenth). He’s been efficient with his targets ranking 14th in yards per route run. Alie-Cox is a solid streaming option against a Broncos’ defense that’s allowed the 11th-highest catch rate to tight ends and the third-most fantasy points to inline tight ends (Alie-Cox, 64.3% inline).

Eric Saubert: The Albert Okwuegbunam dream has expired. Saubert logged an 87.1% route run rate in Week 4. Saubert isn’t a fantasy option with his 4.8% Target share and 0.90 yards per route run.

*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, SharpFootball Stats, Football Outsiders, FTN, Rotoviz, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*

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If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.