New York Giants vs. Seattle Seahawks

• SEA -3, O/U 46.5
• Giants vs. Seahawks Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Each of these teams operates at a league-average pace. Seattle is 14th in neutral pace, while New York is 17th.
• The Giants remain run-heavy with the fourth-highest neutral rushing rate. Seattle is run-balanced, ranking 17th in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Daniel Jones: With last week’s performance, Jones is up to QB9 in fantasy points per game. A better way to view him is an upside QB2, as Jones has only two top 12 weeks under his belt. His rushing upside is what has helped his floor and ceiling. Jones is third in rushing yards, second in rushing touchdowns, and fourth in red zone carries. He’s been efficient but mundane as a passer. Jones is 21st in PFF passing grade and 32nd in aDOT, but he’s first in adjusted completion rate and third in clean pocket completion rate. Jones can stack back-to-back QB1 outings this week against Seattle. The Seahawks are 11th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. His short passing approach can serve him well if his playmakers can create after the catch. Seattle is ninth in passing touchdown rate and fourth in yards per attempt. The culprit is their inability to tackle. They are second in YAC and fourth in missed tackles. Jones is at the borderline of QB1/2.

Geno Smith: Smith has continued to play well as the QB7 in fantasy points per game. Smith has been a top-seven fantasy quarterback in three of his last five games. He’s sixth in PFF passing grade, fourth in big-time throw rate and sixth in adjusted completion rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). This week, Smith is a low-end QB1 against an underrated Giants secondary that has held passers in check. The Giants are ninth in yards per attempt, eighth in passing touchdown rate, and 13th in success rate per dropback (since Week 4).

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley: Barkley continues to truck along as a top-three fantasy running back (RB3). He’s second in opportunity share and weighted opportunities. The Giants have leaned on him heavily as he is third in red zone touches, first in rushing attempts, and ninth in targets. Barkley hasn’t disappointed either, as he is ninth in yards per route run, fourth in evaded tackles, and second in breakaway runs. Barkley should destroy Seattle, who is fifth in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs. The Seahawks are also 30th in rushing yards per game, 22nd in EPA per rush, and 31st in DVOA. They are third in receptions and second in receiving yards surrendered to backs.

Weeks 6-7

Kenneth Walker: Kenneth Walker is the truth. Since taking over the starting job, he’s averaged 23.5 touches and 139 total yards as the RB8 and RB3 in fantasy. He has owned the red zone work. He’s a top-five running back this week. Walker is ninth in yards after contact per attempt, fifth in missed tackles forced (despite ranking 29th in carries), first in breakaway rate, and fourth in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 20 carries). New York can’t stop anything on the ground. They are 28th in rushing yards per game, 27th in EPA per rush, and 30th in explosive run rate. Walker will demolish them.

Wide Receivers

Darius Slayton: Since Week 5, Slayton has a 20% Target share averaging 51.7 receiving yards per game. With his route run rate sitting at 68.7% over this three-game stretch, he’s more volatile than he appears. His 72.4 PFF receiving grade and 2.18 yards per route run since Week 5 are both strong. Despite finishing as a top 24 wide receiver in two of his last three games, he’s better viewed as a WR4/5 this week with his route rate and tough corner matchups. He’ll run about 71% of his routes against Tariq Woolen (56.3% catch rate, 49.7 passer rating) and Michael Jackson (56.7% catch rate, 84.7 passer rating).

Wan’Dale Robinson ROS: pic.twitter.com/n1M0Zojkyl

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) October 27, 2022

Wan’Dale Robinson: Robinson became a full-time player last week. He handled a 27.6% Target share, 28% target per route run rate, and 80.6% route run rate. He finished with eight targets, six grabs, and 50 receiving yards as the WR35. He’ll run about 80% of his routes against the corner to target Coby Bryant (65.5% catch rate, 112.0 passer rating). Robinson is a WR3/4 with a bump in PPR formats.

Tyler Lockett: Lockett is a low-end WR2 this week. Lockett is the WR24 in fantasy points per game, seeing a 25.4% Target share (18th) and 35.5% air-yard share (13th). His best asset is his usage as a downfield weapon (11 deep targets, eighth), as he has only seen four red zone targets. He’ll run about 54% of his routes on the perimeter. He could be shadowed by Adoree Jackson (52.9% catch rate, 85.5 passer rating). Jackson has shadowed three times this season following Robert Woods, Robbie Anderson, and CeeDee Lamb on 65-91% of their routes. Jackson only gave up eight targets, six receptions, and 57 receiving yards (one touchdown). Jackson has been the LCB predominantly, and Lockett will run about 46% of his routes against Jackson if they don’t move him around more. Jackson has 32 snaps this season in the slot, so he could follow Lockett inside some if they try to hide him in the slot. Lockett has been deemed a game-time call after being limited twice this week in practice (hamstring/ribs).

D.K. Metcalf: Metcalf is a game-time decision that I don’t expect to play this week. Metcalf didn’t practice on Wednesday and Thursday before sneaking in a limited session on Friday. Metcalf is the WR36 in fantasy points per game this season with a 24.9% Target share and 34.4% air yard share. He’s a staple in the deep passing game (13th in deep targets) and red zone (seventh in red zone targets). If he does suit up, he’s a risky WR2/3 that could be limited.

Marquise Goodwin: Last week, filling in as the starting receiver opposite (84% perimeter) Lockett after D.K. Metcalf left the game, Goodwin saw a 19.2% Target share with a 73.3% route run rate (3.05 yards per route run). In a limited capacity as the slot wideout, Goodwin has a 1.26 yards per route run this season. He’s drawn only three deep targets, and two red zone looks this season. If Jackson follows Lockett, Goodwin will see Fabian Moreau (57.1% catch rate, 91.5 passer rating) for most of the day. Moreau has played well this season, but he’s been burnable for most of his career (239 career targets, 67.4% catch rate, 104.8 passer rating). Goodwin is a WR4.

Tight Ends

Noah Fant: The SEA tight end situation is a weekly coinflip. Fant is the lean this week if you’re looking this way for a streamer. Fant leads Dissly with a 12.3% Target share (Dissly 9.5%) and 48.5% route run rate (Dissly 41.5%). Fant also has the slight lead in weighted opportunity (0.24 vs. 0.17). The Giants have been giving to tight ends ranking 27th in DVOA with the fourth-most receiving yards and ninth-highest yards per reception allowed.

BAL vs. TB | DEN vs. JAC | CAR vs. ATL | CHI vs. DAL | MIA vs. DET | ARI vs. MIN | LV vs. NO | NE vs. NYJ | PIT vs. PHI | TEN vs. HOU | WAS vs. IND | SF vs. LAR | NYG vs. SEA | GB vs. BUF | CIN vs. CLE

Green Bay Packers vs. Buffalo Bills

• BUF -10.5, O/U 48
• Packers vs. Bills Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Buffalo, who is tenth in neutral pace, will drag the Packers along (26th in neutral pace).
• The passing volume in this game will be bountiful as the Bills are second in neutral passing rate while the Packers are 11th. If Green Bay gets down early, the passing volume can explode as the Packers are second in trailing passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers has flopped in fantasy while his real-life level of play has remained high. Rodgers is 12th in PFF passing grade, 13th in adjusted completion rate, and sixth in big-time throw rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). Despite those facts, Rodgers is the QB25 in fantasy points per game and a QB2 this week. The Bills are a quarterback-squashing pass defense. They have permitted the eighth-lowest yards per attempt, second-lowest passing touchdown rate, and the third-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.

Josh Allen: Allen is unstoppable. He is the QB1 in fantasy points per game and hasn’t finished lower than QB5 in any game this season. That’s absolutely unreal. He’s third in PFF passing grade, seventh in true completion rate, fifth in passing yards, and fourth in accuracy rating. Green Bay has been an average pass defense, ranking 19th in passing yards per game, 22nd in EPA per drop back, and 18th in explosive pass rate. Allen will dominate again as the QB1 every week.

Running Backs

Weeks 5-7

Aaron Jones: Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Matt LaFleur. Finally, Jones has taken the backfield over. This should have happened much earlier in the season, but I’m glad that it is happening now for the Packers’ sake. Since Week 5, Jones has averaged 14.7 touches and 66.7 total yards. Jones is the RB12 in fantasy points per game. He’s ninth in yards per touch, top-ten in breakaway runs and breakaway run rate, and 15th in yards created per touch. Since Week 4, Buffalo has been fourth in rush defense DVOA, third in rushing yards per game, eighth in EPA per rush, and 20th in explosive run rate. Jones is an RB2 in this brutal matchup, but the hope is he can find a crease and break off a long run against a defense that has given up some.

A.J. Dillon: No, I don’t hate Dillon, in case you’re wondering, but his play this season hasn’t matched last year’s. He is 48th in yards per touch, 45th in yards created per touch, and has one breakaway run this season. Since Week 5, he has averaged eight touches and 33.7 total yards. He has been an RB2 or better in only two games this season. The offense desperately needs to start making plays, which hasn’t happened with Dillon playing an equal role in this backfield. Dillon is a touchdown-or-bust RB4.

Devin Singletary: Singletary has played 73% or higher snaps in three of his last four games averaging 15.3 touches and 85.1 total yards. Singletary is the RB24 in fantasy points per game, which should be higher, but he has only one touchdown this season. Singletary is 15th in opportunity share, 20th in weighted opportunity, and RB21 in expected fantasy points per game. His tackle-breaking ability hasn’t been nearly as good as in previous seasons, as he’s 38th in yards after contact per attempt and 39th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 20 carries). His pass game role has helped to pad his fantasy value as he’s 14th in Target share, 11th in targets, 25th in yards per route run, and fifth in routes run. Singletary is a low-end RB2. Green Bay has conceded the fourth-highest rush success rate. The Packers are also 25th in rushing yards per game, 28th in explosive run rate, and 31st in EPA per rush.

Wide Receivers

Allen Lazard: Lazard has been ruled out (shoulder).

Romeo Doubs: All of the preseason and camp hype for Doubs is a distant memory. He’s the WR61 and has struggled for most of the season. He’s 46th in contested catch rate, 16th in drops (three), and 42nd in QBR when targeted. Doubs is 91st in PFF receiving grade and 76th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Doubs will run about 80% of his routes against Dane Jackson (60.0% catch rate, 59.4 passer rating) and Kaiir Elam (76.9% catch rate, 79.0 passer rating). Doubs is a WR4.

Sammy Watkins: Watkins returned last week with a 12.1% Target share, but his route run rate was only at 44.1%. Watkins isn’t worth playing, considering he could be limited and the tough matchup.

Christian Watson: Watson has been listed as questionable (hamstring). Watson is a must-sit even if he is active.

Stefon Diggs: Diggs is a dominant wide receiver. He’s the WR1 in fantasy, ranking second in PFF receiving grade and yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Diggs has finished no lower than WR37 in any game and has been in the top eight among fantasy wide receivers four times. Diggs has a 28.3% Target share (tenth) and 33.4% air yard share (19th). He’s third in the NFL with 12 red zone targets and 23rd in deep targets (eight). Diggs could be shadowed by Jaire Alexander, who followed Terry McLaurin on 69% of his routes in Week 7 (six targets, four receptions, 67 receiving yards, and one touchdown). If Alexander (66.7% catch rate, 91.6 passer rating) doesn’t follow him, he’ll run about 62% of his routes against Alexander and Eric Stokes (87% catch rate, 129.7 passer rating).

Gabe Davis: A healthy Gabriel Davis is a bad, bad man. In Weeks 1, 5, and 6, when he has been healthy, he has a 74.8 PFF receiving grade and 2.92 yards per route run averaging 111 receiving yards per game. That would place Davis 28th in PFF receiving grade and second in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets) this season. Davis saw a 16.2% Target share in those three weeks and 36% of the team’s air yards. He’ll run 90% of his routes against Alexander and Stokes. If Alexander follows Diggs, Davis will eat Stokes alive. Davis is a high-end WR2.

Isaiah McKenzie: McKenzie hasn’t been a full-time player at any point this season, with a 13.1% Target share and 56.7% route participation clip. He’s seen six red zone targets (23rd) and is a threat to score in any game tied to Josh Allen. He’ll run about 76% of his routes against Rasul Douglas (69.2% catch rate, 78.7 passer rating) in the slot. McKenzie is a WR4/5.

Tight Ends

Robert Tonyan: It took only one game for Tonyan to turn back into a pumpkin. Since Week 4, he has had a 15% Target share but a 56.2% route run rate. Week 6 is the only game this season in which Tonyan has more than 40 receiving yards. Tonyan is a TE2 in a terrible matchup. Buffalo is second in DVOA against tight ends, limiting them to the seventh-lowest yards per reception and zero touchdowns.

Dawson Knox: Knox only had a 7.9% Target share in Week 6, but the positive is this is probably the healthiest we’ve seen him all season. We can surmise this from his season-high 75% route run rate. Coming off a bye, as long as Knox is practicing in full this week or we hear positive reports, we could see his route rate climb even higher. Knox has two of his three red zone targets in his last two games played. Green Bay is 18th in DVOA against tight ends. Knox is a TE2 with quiet upside.

BAL vs. TB | DEN vs. JAC | CAR vs. ATL | CHI vs. DAL | MIA vs. DET | ARI vs. MIN | LV vs. NO | NE vs. NYJ | PIT vs. PHI | TEN vs. HOU | WAS vs. IND | SF vs. LAR | NYG vs. SEA | GB vs. BUF | CIN vs. CLE

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns

• CIN -3, O/U 47.5
• Bengals vs. Browns Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Bengals won’t shock anyone with their offensive approach. They are 11th in neutral pace and first in neutral passing rate.
• The Browns have picked up the play volume, ranking 16th in neutral pace. They have also slightly backed off the rushing volume as they are 11th in neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Joe Burrow: Burrow is in his bag. He’s finished as the QB1 overall in each of the last two weeks. He’s been a QB1 in six of seven games this season. Since Week 6, he’s first in PFF passing grade, first in passing touchdowns, second in adjusted completion rate and fourth in big-time throws (minimum 25 dropbacks). The Browns can’t slow him down, as they are 15th in passing yards per game, 25th in EPA per drop back, and 17th in explosive pass rate. Burrow is a top-five fantasy QB option.

Jacoby Brissett: Brissett is a QB2, taking on a strong secondary. Cincinnati has given up the third-lowest success rate per dropback. The Bengals are also ninth in passing yards per game, sixth in EPA per drop back, and 11th in explosive pass rate. The Browns would be wise to limit Brissett this week and feed their ground game. There are plenty of QB2 options on the board in good matchups that Brissett shouldn’t be in starting consideration.

Running Backs

Joe Mixon: Mixon is the RB14 in fantasy points per game. He remains a low-end RB1, living on high-value touches. He’s averaged 21.3 touches and 83.9 total yards. Mixon is fifth in opportunity share, third in weighted opportunity, and first in red zone touches. He’s also 56th in juke rate, 38th in evaded tackles, and has one breakaway run all season. The Browns’ horrible run defense can help cover up his continued inefficiencies. Cleveland is 24th in rushing yards per game, in EPA per rush, and 29th in explosive run rate. They have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to running backs.

Nick Chubb: Chubb is on a tear. He’s the RB4 in fantasy points per game, with only one game finishing outside the top 20 running backs. He has averaged 19.2 touches and 115.3 total yards. He’s top ten in nearly every efficiency metric you can find. Chubb should have his way with this Bengals’ run defense. Since Week 4, Cincinnati has been 21st in rushing yards per game, 25th in EPA per rush, and 28th in explosive run rate. Chubb is a high-end RB1.

Kareem Hunt: On the flip side, Hunt has had a tough time this season. Not because he’s been bad or inefficient, but because his volume has dried up, and his pass game role hasn’t been lucrative with Brissett. Hunt has no games this season with more than four targets. He has six total targets and 24 touches over his last three games. The Bengals’ run defense could be the get-right elixir Hunt needs, though. Hunt is 11th in juke rate, 13th in evaded tackles, and 26th in breakaway runs. If Cleveland wants to keep the ball on the ground this week, Hunt could get a volume spike. He’s fourth in red zone touches with only four touchdowns to show for it. Hunt is an RB2/3.

Wide Receivers

Ja’Marr Chase: Chase is now expected to be out for the next 4-6 weeks with a hip injury. Sadness.

Tee Higgins: With Chase hitting the injury shelf, Higgins now steps into the alpha role for the Bengals.  In the five games Higgins has been a full-time player, he has a 22.7% Target share and 30.4% air yard share. In his five healthy games, he has a 77.0 PFF receiving grade and 2.24 yards per route run mark. This season, among all wide receivers with 15 or more targets, those numbers would rank 17th in PFF receiving grade and 14th in yards per route run. Higgins is a WR1 that will run about 77% of his routes against Emerson and Williams.

Tyler Boyd: After last week’s 155-yard explosion, Boyd is the WR25 in fantasy points per game. He’s only finished as a top-30 fantasy wide receiver in three of seven games. Before the Chase news, he was best seen as a WR3 with explosive upside in any game that Burrow goes nuclear, but now Boyd is a weekly WR2. Boyd has a 14.2% Target share (65th), six deep targets (35th), and three red zone targets (55th). He’ll run about 83% of his routes against Greg Newsome (65.5% catch rate, 99.2 passer rating).

Amari Cooper: Cooper is the WR20 in fantasy points per game with a 26.6% Target share (16th) and 38% air-yard share (ninth). He has nine deep targets (17th) and eight red zone targets (16th) This game doesn’t set up well for him, though. Since Week 4, the Bengals have deployed their corners in zone on 56-60% of their snaps. Cooper has seen most of his target volume against man coverage. Cooper only has 33.3% of his target volume against zone with 1.45 yards per route run (51st, minimum five zone targets). Cooper is a WR3 that will run about 76% of his routes against Chidobe Awuzie (43.9% catch rate, 60.9 passer rating) and Eli Apple (65.5% catch rate, 108.1 passer rating).

Donovan Peoples-Jones: Peoples-Jones is the WR67 in fantasy points per game this season. He has drawn an 18.9% Target share (43rd). He hasn’t fared much better than Cooper against zone with 1.54 yards per route run (46th, 45% of his target volume). He’ll run about 72% of his routes against Awuzie and Apple. Peoples-Jones is a WR5/6.

Tight Ends

Hayden Hurst: Hurst is a low-end TE1. He’s the TE12 in fantasy points per game with a 14.6% Target share (16th), seven red zone targets (sixth), and the third-most routes run. He’s the poster child for volume is king. He’s been terribly inefficient, ranking 22nd in PFF receiving grade and 41st in yards per route run (minimum ten targets). The Browns are 12th in DVOA against tight ends with the lowest catch rate allowed while also ranking first in yards per reception.

Harrison Bryant: With Njoku on the shelf, Bryant likely takes the mantle as the leading tight end for the Browns. Bryant is one of the best streaming tight-end options for the week. This week, Bryant could be the Browns’ best weapon against the Bengals’ zone coverage. In 2021, Bryant saw 64.3% of his target volume against zone. He was one of the best tight ends in the NFL against the coverage, ranking 16th in PFF receiving grade and 11th in yards per route run (minimum five zone targets). Bryant is a TE2 with sneaky TE1 upside in Week 8.

BAL vs. TB | DEN vs. JAC | CAR vs. ATL | CHI vs. DAL | MIA vs. DET | ARI vs. MIN | LV vs. NO | NE vs. NYJ | PIT vs. PHI | TEN vs. HOU | WAS vs. IND | SF vs. LAR | NYG vs. SEA | GB vs. BUF | CIN vs. CLE

Baltimore Ravens vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• BAL -1.5, O/U 44.5
• Ravens vs. Buccaneers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Each team’s offensive plan is well known. The Ravens love to slow the pace down (30th) in close games, while the Buccaneers are sprinters (seventh in neutral pace).
• The Ravens remain a run-based offense (sixth in neutral rushing rate), while Tampa Bay remains pass-heavy (fifth in neutral passing rate).
• The Buccaneers are also third in red zone passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson: Since Week 5, the Buccaneers’ pass defense has shown some cracks. Over the last three games, they are 15th in pass defense DVOA. Marcus Mariota, Mitchell Trubisky, and P.J. Walker completed 66.1% of their passes with 7.9 yards per attempt and a 4:0 passing touchdown to interception ratio. This could be a quiet bounce-back spot for the struggling Jackson. Since Week 4, he’s been the QB16 in fantasy points per game, with his passing metrics falling into the toilet. Over that span, he’s 31st in PFF passing grade, 33rd in yards per attempt, 17th in big-time throw rate, and 26th in adjusted completion rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). Jackson remains a QB1.

Tom Brady: Brady’s real-life quarterback play and his fantasy production haven’t matched up. The Buccaneers offense has been a tick-off all season with injuries and missed opportunities. Brady is seventh in PFF passing grade, tenth in big-time throw rate, 19th in adjusted completion rate, and holds the third-lowest turnover-worthy play rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). These numbers don’t line up with a quarterback that’s QB22 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 5, the Ravens have been a much improved secondary, ranking 13th in pass defense DVOA with the 14th-lowest yards per attempt allowed. They are, however, 17th in DVOA against deep passing. Brady is third in PFF deep passing grade and ninth in deep ball accuracy rating, but he’s also 26th in deep adjusted completion rate. These metrics scream that deep ball regression is coming. Is it in Week 8? Possible. Brady remains a QB1 despite his lackluster fantasy numbers and the tough-on-paper matchup.

Running Backs

Week 7

Gus Edwards: Ok. Edwards looked good in his first game action of the 2022 season. He played 36% of the snaps with 16 carries for 66 yards and two scores. Among 75 running backs with at least 15 carries, he ranks 59th in yards after contact per attempt and 45th in PFF’s elusive rating, so let’s not get carried away. Edwards also saw competition for red zone touches with Kenyan Drake and didn’t run a route in Week 7. Arizona is a beatable defense on the ground. They rank 15th in rush success rate, 26th in explosive run rate, and 26th in second-level yards (19th – open field yards) allowed. Edwards is a game script dependent RB3.

Justice Hill: Hill played 31% of the snaps with five rushes for 26 yards (zero targets). He ran the most routes among the running backs with a 35% rate. Without a red zone role and on a team that doesn’t utilize their backs in the passing game, Hill is best left to the waiver wire.

Kenyan Drake: The Drake waiver frenzy and hope lasted about half of a week. Drake played 27% of the snaps turning his 11 carries into five rushing yards. Drake challenged Edwards in the red zone in Week 7 with one less touch, but that could easily flip more in Edwards’ favor in Week 8. Drake is a low-end stash only. He’s not worth considering for your lineup, even in the deepest of leagues.

Week 7

Weeks 4-7

Leonard Fournette: Fournette is still rocking along as the RB8 in fantasy points per game. Since White’s inclusion in the backfield rotation (Week 4), Fournette has averaged 17.8 touches and 80.1 total yards. He’s also seen less than 15 touches in two of his last four games. His snaps have hovered in the 60-62% range in three of his last four games. Fournette could be headed for a bounceback week against Baltimore, but there are concerns. The Ravens have allowed the 11th-fewest rushing yards, but they have also faced the sixth-fewest rushing attempts. Baltimore can be run on, as they have allowed the fifth-highest yards per carry. The Ravens are also 24th in adjusted line yards and second-level yards allowed. The biggest worry for Fournette is that his offensive line has been terrible, ranking 28th or lower in adjusted line yards, second-level yards, and open field yards. Another worrisome factor for Fournette is that he hasn’t been particularly elusive. Among 58 running backs with 25 or more carries, he ranks 55th in yards after contact per attempt, 47th in breakaway run rate, and 48th in PFF’s elusive rating. His heavy Target share in the Bucs’ offense could help save him, though, as Baltimore has given up the third-most receptions and receiving yards to running backs. Fournette remains an RB1.

Rachaad White: White played a season-high 43% of snaps in Week 7. While he did see a season-high six carries last week was the first game since Week 3 in which he didn’t have at least four targets through the air. Since Week 4, White has averaged 35% of the snaps with 7.5 touches and 38.3 total yards. His value as a touchdown or bust low-end PPR flex is found through the passing game because he’s still among the worst rushers in the league. Among the same sample of backs as Fournette, the only player with a lower yards after contact per attempt is Kenyan Drake. With his 26 rushing attempts, White has only managed one run of ten or more yards, and he still hasn’t recorded a breakaway run.

Wide Receivers

Mike Evans: Evans is the WR11 in fantasy points per game. He has garnered a 19% Target share with 33.2% of the team’s air yards. Evans is 19th in PFF receiving grade and 23rd in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). He leads Tampa Bay with a 41.7% end zone Target share. Evans is a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 who will run about 72% of his routes against Marlon Humphrey (71% catch rate, 57.5 passer rating) and Marcus Peters (64.5% catch rate, 92.5 passer rating). The matchup this week against the Ravens’ outside corners is no joke, but it’s impossible to bench Evans with his downfield role (leads the team in deep targets) and touchdown equity in the Bucs offense.

Chris Godwin: In the three games Godwin has played at least 80% of the snaps this season, he has seen a 26.1% Target share with 29.1% of the team’s air yards. In those three games, he has logged at least ten targets and seven receptions in each outing. Godwin is 26th in PFF receiving grade and 35th in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). Godwin will run about 73% of his routes in the slot against Damarion Williams (74.1% catch rate, 135.3 passer rating). Williams is the weak link in the Baltimore secondary. Expect Brady to zero in on it and pepper Godwin with another ten-plus target game. Godwin is a top-ten wide receiver.

Russell Gage: Gage has been ruled out.

Julio Jones: Jones has been listed as a game-time decision. I doubt he plays, but if he does, he still isn’t worth starting. Jones could easily be a part-time player splitting routes with Scotty Miller.

Rashod Bateman (undisclosed) misses practice Tuesday https://t.co/sDfgwODdSC via @jesseg628 #RavensFlock

— FantasyPros (@FantasyProsNFL) October 25, 2022

Rashod Bateman: Last week, Bateman returned to the lineup, and while his 56% snap rate doesn’t look impressive, he saw a 75% route run rate, so Baltimore was utilizing him on passing plays and not in meaningless run-blocking situations. In the four games in which Bateman has played at least 50% of the snaps, he’s seen a 20.8% Target share with a 67.1 PFF receiving grade and 3.01 yards per route run. Among wide receivers with 15 or more targets, that would place him 51st in PFF receiving grades and second in yards per route run. Bateman is a WR3 that’ll run about 85% of his routes against Jamel Dean (48.5% catch rate, 49.9 passer rating) and Zyon McCollum (80% catch rate, 147.9 passer rating). Monitor Bateman’s practice reports. If he misses this game, Duvernay’s outlook will change.

Devin Duvernay: In the four games, Bateman has played close to a full complement of passing down snaps, Duvernay has faded into the background with a 10.9% Target share averaging 40.8 receiving yards. In a low-volume passing offense, Duvernay is nothing more than a WR4/5 who will run about 61% of his routes on the perimeter against Dean and McCollum.

Tight Ends

Cade Otton: If Cameron Brate remains sidelined, Otton will be the full-time tight end in Week 7. In the two games, he’s been in the starter’s chair, he’s played at least 81% of the snaps with a 12.2% Target share and 83.5% route run rate. He averaged six targets, five receptions, and 53.5 receiving yards as the TE10 and TE12 in fantasy scoring. Baltimore is 24th in DVOA against tight ends allowing the highest catch rate and fourth-most receiving touchdowns to the position. If Otton draws the start, he’s a TE1.

Mark Andrews (ankle) does not practice Tuesday https://t.co/qecmcHRb6w via @jesseg628 #RavensFlock

— FantasyPros (@FantasyProsNFL) October 25, 2022

Mark Andrews: Andrews leads all tight ends in Target share (31.6%), endzone targets per game, and weighted opportunity. He’s second in receiving yards per game and third in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Tampa Bay might be 14th in DVOA against tight ends, but they have surrendered the ninth-highest catch rate and 11th-most receiving yards per game. Andrews is a top-two tight-end option weekly. Monitor Andrews’ practice reports this week as he didn’t practice on Tuesday (ankle). If Andrews misses this game, Isaiah Likely would enter the streaming / low-end TE1 conversation in Week 8.

BAL vs. TB | DEN vs. JAC | CAR vs. ATL | CHI vs. DAL | MIA vs. DET | ARI vs. MIN | LV vs. NO | NE vs. NYJ | PIT vs. PHI | TEN vs. HOU | WAS vs. IND | SF vs. LAR | NYG vs. SEA | GB vs. BUF | CIN vs. CLE