Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Philadelphia Eagles

• PHI -11, O/U 44
• Steelers vs. Eagles Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• It would be immaculate if a team could push the Eagles for a full four quarters. This season they are first in pace and 23rd in passing rate in the first half. Those numbers drop off a table in the second half as they have been blowing teams out. They are 31st in pace in the second half and have the third-highest rushing rate.
• Pittsburgh should help the play volume this week as they are sixth in neutral pace and 12th in passing rate in this game environment. When they are trailing, they are throwing the ball on 70.9% of their plays (18th).

Quarterbacks

Kenny Pickett: Pickett is a low-end QB2 best left on the bench this week. Against a beatable Miami secondary last week, he could only swing 5.8 yards per attempt and a QB17 fantasy finish. It won’t be pretty this week against an elite Philadelphia defense. Pickett is 23rd in PFF passing grade and 37th in yards per attempt with a 2:7 passing touchdown to interception ratio. The Eagles have surrendered the sixth-lowest success rate per dropback and the second-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They also have the ninth-lowest passing touchdown rate and lowest yards per attempt allowed in the NFL.

Jalen Hurts: The Pittsburgh Steelers’ pass defense has looked like a shell of its former self since Week 4. They are 21st in pass defense DVOA, ranking 29th in passing yards per game, 30th in EPA per drop back, and 32nd in explosive pass rate allowed. Now enters Hurts, who should continue the Pittsburgh beatdown. Hurts is the QB3 in fantasy. He’s fifth in PFF passing grade, second in adjusted completion rate, and fifth in yards per attempt. The Steelers are 30th in pressure rate, which is bad news. Hurts is top three in completion rate and accuracy rating from a clean pocket. Hurts is the QB2 behind only Josh Allen.

Running Backs

Weeks 6-7

Najee Harris: After seeing varying usage in the early going, Harris has played at least 69% of the snaps since Week 6 with 18 touches and 64.5 total yards per game. Harris has eclipsed 4.0 yards per carry only once this season. While that’s a surface-level stat, it should illuminate his struggles in 2022. While he’s 11th in evaded tackles and 21st in juke rate, Harris is 44th in breakaway run rate and yards created per touch. He’s only finished as an RB2 or better once over his last four games. Harris is a volume-based RB3 with RB2 upside if he scores a touchdown. Philadelphia can be run on, but it’s fair to wonder if Harris can produce. The Eagles have permitted the eighth-highest yards per carry while sitting at 25th in EPA per rush and 23rd in explosive run rate. Harris could take advantage if his line was even league average, but Pittsburgh is 25th or lower in adjusted line yards, second-level yards, and open field yards.

Jaylen Warren: Warren has faded back into the background over the last two games. Since Week 6, he’s averaged 27% of the snaps with three touches and 13 yards per game. Warren is a handcuff only.

Miles Sanders: Sanders is RB16 in fantasy. He’s averaged 19.3 touches and 87.8 total yards. Sanders has finished as a top-24 running back in four of six games. He’s 18th in evaded tackles, and 22nd in yards created running behind a line that’s seventh in second-level yards. After the bad touchdown luck of last season, Sanders is seventh in red zone touches and eighth in total touchdowns. Sanders is a low-end RB2 against what remains a good Pittsburgh run defense. The Steelers are top-12 in adjusted line yards, second-level yards, and open field yards. They are third in explosive run rate allowed.

Kenneth Gainwell: Gainwell is a handcuff only. He hasn’t crested 30% of the snaps played since Week 3. He’s been held without a red-zone look since Week 4. Overall he’s averaging 4.5 touches and 19.7 yards per game.

Wide Receivers

Weeks 5-7

Diontae Johnson: Johnson has been a floor play all season. He remains the Steelers’ leading receiver with Pickett under center leading the team in every meaningful category. He’s finished as a top 36 wide receiver in four of seven games, but he’s only once concluded the week as a WR2 or better. Johnson is a volume driven low-end WR3/high-end WR4. He’s 13th in Target share and 23rd in air yard share this season, but that’s helped him only rank 51st in PFF receiving grade and 69th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). He’ll run about 90% of his routes against the star tandem of Darius Slay (43.8% catch rate, 31.8 passer rating) and James Bradberry (41.5% catch rate, 32.4 passer rating.

George Pickens: Pickens is a WR3/4. He’s finished as a top-24 wide receiver in three of his last four games (WR18, WR21, WR12), overcoming tough matchups against the Jets and Bills’ outside corners, so it won’t surprise me if Pickens surpasses my expectations against two of the league’s best corners. Pickens is 46th in PFF receiving grade and 65th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). He’s fourth among wide receivers in deep targets (13). He’ll run about 91% of his routes against Slay and Bradberry.

Chase Claypool: Claypool is a WR4/5. He has only one game above WR4 status all season. He’s second among the wide receivers in Target share with Pickett under center and ranks 17th in deep targets this season. Sadly he has only 1.02 yards per route run and a sub-65.0 PFF receiving grade. He’ll run about 80% of his routes against Avonte Maddox (83.3% catch rate, 78.7 passer rating) in the slot.

A.J. Brown: A.J. Brown is your favorite alpha receivers’ favorite receiver. He’s the WR13 in fantasy points per game (WR8 in expected fantasy points per game). Brown has commanded a 30.6% Target share (sixth) and a 31.7% target per route run rate (fifth). Brown is third among receivers in air-yard share. He is fourth in PFF receiving grade and eighth in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). He’s finished as a top-24 receiver in four of six games. Brown is seventh among receivers in red zone targets, but he’s only scored two touchdowns. Regression is coming for Brown. Yes, I know I keep preaching this, but his volume and high-value usage are too good for him to keep up this touchdown drought. Brown is a WR1. He’ll run about 76% of his routes against Akhello Witherspoon (73.7% catch rate, 117.2 passer rating) and James Pierre (53.8% catch rate, 64.3 passer rating).

DeVonta Smith: Don’t look now, but Jalen Hurts…the much-maligned, pitiful passer (per social media), is supporting two top 24 wide receivers. Smith is the WR21 in fantasy points per game, with top-25 finishes in four of his last five games. He has quietly been a stud, ranking 17th in PFF receiving grade and 26th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). He only has four red zone targets (42nd) this season, but he leads the team in deep targets (six, Brown five). Smith is a WR2. He’ll match up with Witherspoon and Pierre on 79% of his routes.

Tight Ends

Pat Freiermuth: Freiermuth has drawn an 18.7% Target share (tenth) and sits at seventh in target rate per route run among tight ends. He lacks red zone targets (four, 16th), but he leads the position in deep targets (seven). Freiermuth is sixth in PFF receiving grade and fifth in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Philly has been rough on opposing tight ends ranking 11th in DVOA, holding them to the seventh-lowest catch rate and tenth-lowest yards per reception. Freiermuth is a TE1 and one of the Steelers’ best hopes to move the ball this week.

Dallas Goedert: Goedert is in the middle of a breakout season as the TE8 in fantasy. Goedert is on pace to break 1,000 receiving yards. He’s ninth in PFF receiving grade and sixth in yards per route run with five red zone targets (tenth among tight ends). Among all wide receivers and tight ends with at least 15 targets, he’s first in YAC per reception and second to only Cooper Kupp in overall YAC. The Steelers are one of the best defenses against the tight end position ranking third in DVOA with the fifth-lowest catch rate and seventh-fewest receiving yards per game allowed. There is an avenue for Goedert to finish with a good game here if he can utilize his supreme YAC skills. The Steelers are 14th in missed tackles and eighth in YAC, so if Goedert can break some tackles in the open field, he can get past this tough draw. Goedert is a solid TE1.

BAL vs. TB | DEN vs. JAC | CAR vs. ATL | CHI vs. DAL | MIA vs. DET | ARI vs. MIN | LV vs. NO | NE vs. NYJ | PIT vs. PHI | TEN vs. HOU | WAS vs. IND | SF vs. LAR | NYG vs. SEA | GB vs. BUF | CIN vs. CLE

Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans

• TEN -3.5, O/U 41
• Titans vs. Texans Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• This game will be slow. Houston is 24th in neutral pace, followed by the Titans, who are dead last in the NFL.
• Houston hasn’t been effective as a passing offense, but that hasn’t stopped them from throwing at the 14th-highest rate in close games. Tennessee is run-centric as always, ranking fifth in neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Ryan Tannehill: Tannehill is dealing with an illness and ankle injury. He logged DNPs on Wednesday and Friday. He could miss this game, leaving Malik Willis in line to make the start. Tannehill isn’t worth considering as a risky QB2 if he starts against a secondary that’s allowed the second-lowest passing touchdown rate and ranks 17th in success rate per dropback.

Malik Willis:  If Tannehill is out, Willis is on the QB2 radar with massive upside based on his rushing ability alone. In the preseason, among 67 quarterbacks with at least 25 dropbacks, Willis was 56th in PFF passing grade and 54th in adjusted completion rate. However, he carried the ball four times for 159 rushing yards with seven missed tackles forced. With the state of Houston’s run defense, Willis could rush for 100 yards or at least enough to make his passing numbers icing on the cake.

Davis Mills: Mills was one of my favorite QB2/streamers last week. He’s back on the list this week. He logged his first QB1 performance of the year last week as the QB7 in fantasy with 302 passing yards and two passing touchdowns. The Titans have yielded the eighth-highest success rate per dropback, third-highest yards per attempt, and third-highest passing touchdown rate. They are seventh in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. Mills is only 26th in deep attempts, but he is sixth in deep ball completion rate. He’ll find success winding up downfield this week against a secondary that’s 32nd in DVOA versus deep passing.

Running Backs

Derrick Henry: In King Henry’s last two games against Houston, he has averaged a ridiculous 28 rushing attempts, 231 rushing yards, and two rushing touchdowns. Yes, you read that right. Henry has seen his two highest rushing attempt totals of the year in the last two weeks, with 28 and 30 carries. Overall he’s averaged 24.7 touches and 111.1 total yards as the RB5 in fantasy points per game. Henry has remained effective, but he’s not the same rusher, ranking 23rd in yards after contact per attempt and 40th in PFF elusive rating (minimum 15 carries). He’s ninth in breakaway runs, but he hasn’t snapped off the home runs at the same rate as previous seasons (32nd in breakaway run rate). Houston has no chance of stopping Henry this week. They have allowed the most fantasy points per game and the third-most rushing touchdowns to running backs. Houston is 32nd in rushing yards per game and 32nd in explosive run rate. Henry is a top-three running back this week.

BETTLE MATCHUP OF THE WEEK

Each week, we’ll pick a matchup of the week, presented by Bettle. For Week 8, Derek Henry is our Bettle Matchup of the Week.

Dameon Pierce: Since Week 3, Pierce hasn’t finished lower than the RB18 in any week. He’s averaged 23.8 touches and 117.5 total yards. As last week displayed, he can still be game-scripted out to an extent. In Week 7, his route run rate was only 26.2%, while Rex Burkhead was at 42.9%. Pierce has been among the best rushers in the league, ranking 11th in yards after contact per attempt and fourth in PFF’s elusive rating. He ranks second in missed tackles forced behind only Nick Chubb. With script issues still a slight concern, Pierce is a high-end RB2. The Titans are a run-stopping behemoth, so mute your expectations for Pierce this week. Tennessee is first in rush success rate this season. Since Week 4, they are first in rushing yards per game, EPA per rush, and explosive run rate allowed.

Wide Receivers

Robert Woods: Woods remains in the WR5/6 bucket. He hasn’t found himself inside the top 40 fantasy wide receivers since Week 4, and that was the only time this season. He’s the WR68 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 22.4% Target share (5.3 targets per game). The Titans don’t need Woods, his 1.62 yards per route run, and three red zone targets to win this game. He’ll run about 65% of his routes against Steven Nelson (61.5% catch rate, 91.3 passer rating) and Derek Stingley (66.7% catch rate, 84.9 passer rating).

Brandin Cooks: Cooks is slowing down, but the matchup this week gives him another chance to turn back the clock. Cooks has a 23.3% Target share with 26.8% of the team’s air yards. He has two games this year as a WR2 or better. With Nico Collins likely out this week, Cooks and the next wide receiver I’ll discuss could absorb the downfield looks. Cooks is second on the team with five deep targets. He’s secured three with a 143.8 passer rating. Cooks could be shadowed by Kristian Fulton, who followed Michael Pittman on 56% of his routes last week, limiting him to three targets, one reception, and four receiving yards. Cooks has been listed as questionable (wrist). He practiced in full all week, so he’ll play. The Texans are having fun with their designations this week. Cooks is a WR3.

Phillip. Dorsett.

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) October 27, 2022

Phillip Dorsett: Dorsett is a high-upside flex wild card this week, especially if Fulton shadows Cooks. Dorsett is third on the team in deep targets securing both with a 158.3 passer rating. Going back to 2019, when he saw his last substantial usage in the NFL, 30% of his target volume was deep. He had a 111.1 passer rating when targeted deep, with three receiving touchdowns. Dorsett will run most of his routes against Terrance Mitchell (65% catch rate, 112.5 passer rating) if Fulton follows Cooks.

Nico Collins: Collins has been listed as questionable despite not practicing all week. I doubt Collins plays this week.

Tight Ends

N/A: No tight end in this game is fantasy viable.

BAL vs. TB | DEN vs. JAC | CAR vs. ATL | CHI vs. DAL | MIA vs. DET | ARI vs. MIN | LV vs. NO | NE vs. NYJ | PIT vs. PHI | TEN vs. HOU | WAS vs. IND | SF vs. LAR | NYG vs. SEA | GB vs. BUF | CIN vs. CLE

Washington Commanders vs. Indianapolis Colts

• IND -4, O/U 41.5
• Commanders vs. Colts Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Washington has slowed down, ranking 23rd in neutral pace while emphasizing the run (13th in neutral rushing rate).
• The Colts are second in neutral pace, but we’ll see if that holds with the quarterback change.

Quarterbacks

Taylor Heinicke: In a down week for quarterback production last week, Heinicke was the QB13 in fantasy. Among 43 quarterbacks with at least 25 dropbacks, he’s 43rd in PFF passing grade (Ewww), 41st in adjusted completion rate, and 38th in yards per attempt. Heinicke’s fantasy value is tied to his legs. The Colts continue to be a run funnel. Since Week 4, they are 13th in pass defense DVOA (26th in rush DVOA), allowing the second-fewest passing yards per game while sitting at tenth in EPA per dropback and fourth in explosive pass rate. Heinicke is a low-floor QB2.

Sam Ehlinger: The Sam Ehlinger experiment has left the station. Ehlinger offers intrigue this week as a QB2. In the preseason, he was third in PFF passing grade, first in yards per attempt, and first in adjusted completion rate (minimum 25 dropbacks). Yes, it was the preseason, but these numbers at least offer hope. Over the last two years in the preseason, he’s rushed eight times for 126 yards (7.4 per carry) with a rushing score. Ehlinger takes on a Commanders’ pass defense, starting to hit its stride behind a stout pass rush. Since Week 4, Washington is 19th in pass defense DVOA, but they have held opponents to the fifth-fewest passing yards per game, 11th-lowest EPA per drop back, and 14th in explosive pass rate. Washington is also sixth in pressure rate. In the preseason (only 13 dropbacks), Ehlinger had a 149.3 passer rating with 13.2 yards per attempt and three passing touchdowns. Ehlinger could spark this offense with his willingness to chuck it deep and his mobility.

Running Backs

Week 7

Brian Robinson: Last week Robinson matched his season-high snap count (47%) while handling 22 touches and producing 86 total yards. Robinson saw his route run rate climb from 7.7% to 25.7%. Over the last two weeks, among 49 running backs with at least ten carries, he has ranked 31st in yards after contact per attempt and 28th in PFF’s elusive rating. Robinson split the red zone work with Gibson last week. Robinson is a rock-solid RB2 against an ailing Colts run defense. Since Week 4, Indy has had the seventh-highest rush success rate. They are also 29th in rushing yards per game and 26th in explosive run rate.

Antonio Gibson: Over the last two weeks, Gibson has run hot, averaging 32% of the snaps with 10.5 touches and 65 total yards as the RB24 and RB16. Gibson’s new part-time role has brought back his explosive playmaking ability, though. Since Week 6 (minimum ten carries), he’s ninth in yards after contact per attempt, tenth in breakaway run rate, and 23rd in PFF’s elusive rating. Gibson is volatile but upside flex with his home run ability and red zone usage.

J.D. McKissic: McKissic is droppable at this point. He’s been squeezed with Gibson and Robinson occupying the major roles. McKissic has only three touches and 24 yards since Week 6.

Jonathan Taylor: Taylor only played 55% of the snaps as the Colts eased him back in. Taylor looked all the way back on paper. He logged his highest PFF rushing grade (79.3) and yards after contact per attempt (4.60) of the season. He forced five missed tackles on ten rushing attempts. For context, in his two previous games played, he managed only eight missed tackles with 41 rushing attempts. Taylor has played 74-88% of the snaps in every other game of the season, so I expect his snaps to trend upward this week. Taylor also walked away from Week 7 with a season-high eight targets and seven grabs, but I don’t expect that to continue moving forward with the mobile Ehlinger. The Commanders are a strong run defense. Since Week 4, they have been second in rush DVOA with the eighth-lowest rush success rate allowed. Over the last month, they are also 15th in rushing yards per game, seventh in EPA per rush, and second in explosive run rate allowed. Taylor remains an RB1.

Nyheim Hines: In Week 7, Hines saw his second-highest snap count of the season (38%) with nine touches and 43 total yards. It was his first game since Week 3 with more than two targets. Hines is a low-floor flex with an uncertain role and volume expectation with a new mobile quarterback under center. The match up is right though if you need an upside flex especially in PPR leagues. Washington is 26th in DVOA allowing the eighth-highest yards per reception and most receiving touchdowns to running backs.

Wide Receivers

Terry McLaurin: Despite Jaire Alexander shadowing McLaurin on 69% of his routes, he saw his highest Target share (25%) and second-highest target total of the season. McLaurin could be primed for another shadow matchup with week against Stephon Gilmore. Gilmore has shadowed twice this year following Brandin Cooks and Courtland Sutton on 57-84% of their routes, limiting them to four receptions (11 targets) and 33 receiving yards (zero touchdowns). McLaurin is 43rd in PFF receiving grade and 52nd in yards per route run this season (minimum 15 targets) with a 17.4% Target share. If Heinicke will force him the ball weekly, McLaurin is a WR3.

Curtis Samuel: Samuel also saw a 25% Target share from Heinicke last week, finishing as the WR25 in fantasy. It was Samuel’s highest fantasy finish since Week 2. Overall this season, he has a 22.5% Target share, with eight red zone targets (16th) running about 69% of his routes from the slot. Samuel will see Kenny Moore in coverage for most of the day. Since Week 4, Moore has picked up his level of play, allowing only a 54.5% catch rate and 65.7 passer rating. Samuel is a WR3/4.

Jahan Dotson: Dotson has been ruled out.

Michael Pittman: Pittman is the WR12 in fantasy points per game with a 24.0% Target share (23rd) and 26.6% air yard share (36th). He’s only drawn five red zone targets (33rd) this season with none since Week 4. With Ryan he’s 31st in PFF receiving grade and 45th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Pittman will run about 76% of his routes on the perimeter seeing Kendall Fuller (65.7% catch rate, 135.1 passer rating) and Benjamin St.-Juste (48.6% catch rate, 77.4 passer rating) in coverage. Pittman runs more routes as the LWR which means he’ll see slightly more Fuller in this matchup as Fuller plays on one side of the field (RCB). If the Colts wish to pick on Fuller with Pittman it should be easy to do. Pittman is a WR2.

Parris Campbell: Over the last two games, Campbell has commanded a 22.5% Target share averaging 8.5 targets and 63.5 receiving yards with scores in each game. Since Week 6, he has had a 70.0 PFF receiving grade and 1.21 yards per route run. Campbell will run about 78% of his routes in the slot against Rachad Wildgoose (57.9% catch rate, 71.6 passer rating). Despite the recent surge, Campbell is a WR4, considering the tougher corner matchup and quarterback change.

Alec Pierce: FINALLY. Pierce has become a full-time player in this offense. Despite the 9.8% Target share last week, the positive is that Pierce saw a 91.5% route run rate. Pierce has a 13.0% Target share this season and ranks 51st in yards per route run. He still leads the team in deep targets and now gets another secondary that is vulnerable against the deep ball (29th in DVOA against deep passing). Pierce has secured five of six deep targets with a 158.3 passer rating. He’ll run about 93% of his routes against St.-Juste and Fuller with a slightly larger share against St.-Juste. Pierce is an upside WR4 with a good ceiling if Ehlinger is more aggressive than Ryan was.

Tight Ends

Commanders’ TE Logan Thomas, listed as questionable for Sunday due to a calf injury, is expected to play vs. the Colts, per source.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 30, 2022

Logan Thomas: Thomas has been listed as questionable after limited practices all week. Thomas will be on the TE2/streamer radar if he’s back this week. Thomas has a 12.0% Target share and 68% route participation mark this season. He’s seen three deep and red zone targets in his four games played. Indy has been a good matchup for tight ends, ranking 25th in DVOA, allowing the ninth-highest catch rate, tenth-highest yards per reception, and the fifth-most touchdowns.

Mo Alie-Cox: The Colts’ tight-end roulette wheel isn’t worth spinning against Washington. The Commanders are a brick wall against tight ends, ranking fourth in DVOA, yielding the fourth-lowest catch rate, and receiving yards.

BAL vs. TB | DEN vs. JAC | CAR vs. ATL | CHI vs. DAL | MIA vs. DET | ARI vs. MIN | LV vs. NO | NE vs. NYJ | PIT vs. PHI | TEN vs. HOU | WAS vs. IND | SF vs. LAR | NYG vs. SEA | GB vs. BUF | CIN vs. CLE

San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams

• SF -2, O/U 42
• 49ers vs. Rams Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• This game will challenge for the “Molasses Title” as the slowest of the slate. The 49ers are 29th in neutral pace, while Los Angeles has slowed to a crawl (29th).
• Despite their pitiful pace, the Rams are sixth in neutral passing rate. The 49ers are 12th in neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Jimmy Garoppolo: Garoppolo has finished as the QB9 in three consecutive weeks. He’s a borderline QB1/2 this week against the Rams. Garoppolo’s numbers illustrate the worrisome highwire act that is Jimmy G. He’s eighth in yards per attempt and 12th in big-time throw rate, which are great. Still, Garoppolo is also 27th in PFF passing grade, 22nd in aDOT, and 31st in adjusted completion rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). In his last two matchups against Los Angeles, he has finished as the QB13 and QB19 in fantasy. Los Angeles is eighth in passing yards per game, 13th in EPA per drop back, and second in explosive pass rate. After opening the season wobbly, since Week 4, Los Angeles is sixth in pass defense DVOA.

Matthew Stafford: Stafford has been a mess this season as the QB29 in fantasy points per game. He’s only managed two passing touchdowns over his last four games. The last time he faced the 49ers, he finished as the QB29 with 5.3 yards per attempt and 254 passing yards. Stafford is a QB2 in this matchup. Since losing Emmanuel Moseley, the 49ers’ pass defense is first in success rate per dropback, 26th in passing yards per game, and 30th in explosive pass rate. Yes, in this two-week sample, Patrick Mahomes sways the numbers heavily, but also, they allowed Marcus Mariota to complete 92.8% of his passes with 9.2 yards per attempt. Overall the 49ers are 31st in DVOA against deep passing. The biggest worry for Stafford is the 49ers’ pass rush. They are second in pressure rate. Stafford is third in pressure-adjusted completion rate but ninth in turnover-worthy play rate with pressure in his face (minimum 50 dropbacks).

Running Backs

Week 7

Christian McCaffrey: With little time to learn the playbook, McCaffrey played 28% of the snaps with ten touches for 62 total yards. Expect all of these numbers to trend upward this week. It’s impossible to project his workload this week, but expecting him to take the lion’s share of the work should be the baseline. McCaffrey should have the opportunity to show off his skills. He ranks 15th in evaded tackles, fourth in yards per route run, and 14th in breakaway runs. Since Week 4, the Rams’ strong run defense has relented some, ranking 18th in rushing yards per game. They remained 11th in EPA per rush and fifth in explosive run rate. McCaffrey should be able to make the most of his targets against a defense that’s quietly allowed the seventh-highest yards per reception to backs. With the uncertainties around his usage, McCaffrey is a low-end RB1.

Jeff Wilson: With the 49ers investing heavily in McCaffrey, Wilson is unstartable and a handcuff only now.

Darrell Henderson Jr. good to go on Sunday https://t.co/gSgZwa9rOw via @j_epp22 #RamsHouse

— FantasyPros (@FantasyProsNFL) October 28, 2022

Darrell Henderson: Henderson opened the week missing practice dealing with an illness. He looks good to go this week, though. In Week 6, returning to the starting gig, he played 71% of the snaps with 14 touches and 52 total yards. Behind a struggling Rams offensive line, Henderson is 46th in juke rate, 30th in yards created per touch, and 33rd in breakaway run rate. He faces a 49er run defense that’s permitted the sixth-lowest rush success rate, second-fewest rushing yards per game, and is first in explosive run rate. Henderson is an RB3.

Wide Receivers

Deebo Samuel officially out for Week 8 https://t.co/UhrPFP4QE8 via @j_epp22 #FTTB

— FantasyPros (@FantasyProsNFL) October 28, 2022

Deebo Samuel: With Garoppolo under center, Samuel has a 24% Target share (eight targets per game) with a 20.2% air yard share. He’s been a top-36 wideout in three of five games. Overall he’s the WR19 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 3, Samuel has been 22nd in PFF receiving grade and 22nd in yards per route run with eight red zone targets (16th). Samuel will run about 63% of his routes . Samuel is a WR2.

Brandon Aiyuk: Since Week 3, Aiyuk has had a 22.2% Target share with 26.3% of the team’s air yards. Over the five weeks, he’s fifth in PFF receiving grade and 36th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). He’s seen 11 targets in back-to-back games as the WR4 and WR18 in fantasy. Aiyuk has five deep targets and seven red zone targets (21st) this season. He’ll run about 74% of his routes on the perimeter against Jalen Ramsey (63.6% catch rate, 107.0 passer rating) and Derion Kendrick (61.3% catch rate, 98.1 passer rating) as a WR2. Expect Garoppolo to lean on Aiyuk and McCaffrey more with Samuel out.

Cooper Kupp: Kupp is the WR2 in fantasy. Kupp has a 32.6% Target share (first) and 36.6% air yard share (12th). He’s 16th in red zone targets, first in YAC, and fifth in receiving yards. In their last meeting, he destroyed the 49ers with 19 targets, 14 receptions, and 122 receiving yards. You’re never sitting, Kupp. Ever.

Allen Robinson: Robinson has been one of the biggest disappointments this season. He’s the WR73 in fantasy points per game with two games as a WR2 or better. In Week 4 against this secondary, he drew six targets and turned them into two receptions and seven receiving yards. Robinson has ten red zone targets (fourth) this season, but he’s only come down with two touchdowns. Robinson will run about 66% of his routes against Charvarius Ward (60.6% catch rate, 85.7 passer rating) and Deommodore Lenoir (83.3% catch rate, 103.8 passer rating. Robinson is a WR5/6.

Van Jefferson: Jefferson could make his season debut this week, but his routes could be limited. Stash Jefferson if you’re hurting at WR, but don’t look to start him in Week 8.

Tight Ends

George Kittle: Kittle has come alive over the last two games with a 21.8% Target share averaging 9.5 targets, seven receptions, and 90.5 receiving yards (2.26 yards per route run). Thank you, Kyle Shanahan, for featuring an elite player. Congrats. It’s about time. Kittle is now the TE6 in fantasy points per game, ranking sixth in yards per route run and seventh in YAC. Kittle only has four red zone targets this season (16th). After destroying the Rams earlier in his career, Kittle has been held under 60 receiving yards in each of their last three meetings. Kittle is a TE1 weekly, but mute your expectations this week. The Rams are eighth in DVOA against the position with the fifth-lowest yards per reception, third-lowest catch rate, and zero touchdowns allowed to tight ends.

Tyler Higbee: Higbee has taken over the role as the WR2 in this offense. He is fourth in targets and Target share (22.6%) among tight ends. He is sixth in route participation, tenth in red zone targets, and 14th in yards per route run. In their last meeting, he saw 14 targets with ten grabs and 73 receiving yards as the TE4 for the week. San Francisco is still 13th in DVOA against the position with the second-lowest yards per reception and seventh-fewest receiving yards allowed. The 49ers deployed zone coverage on 53-61% of their snaps last week. Higbee has seen 68.8% of his target volume against zone as he ranks ninth in yards per route run against zone (minimum five zone targets).

BAL vs. TB | DEN vs. JAC | CAR vs. ATL | CHI vs. DAL | MIA vs. DET | ARI vs. MIN | LV vs. NO | NE vs. NYJ | PIT vs. PHI | TEN vs. HOU | WAS vs. IND | SF vs. LAR | NYG vs. SEA | GB vs. BUF | CIN vs. CLE