Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Miami Dolphins
Pace and playcalling notes
- With Tua Tagovailoa under center in Weeks 1-3, Miami was 28th in neutral pace but seventh in passing rate.
- The Steelers are a ho-hum offensive attack sitting at 15th in neutral pace and passing rate.
Quarterbacks
Kenny Pickett: Kenny Pickett: Pickett hasn’t wowed so far during his young career. He’s 25th in PFF passing grade, 33rd in yards per attempt, 34th in big-time throw rate, and 12th in adjusted completion rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). We also need to give some context to those numbers, though. Pickett has played the Jets, Bills, and Buccaneers. Since Week 3, each pass defense is ranked in the top 13 in DVOA. The Dolphins are not on that level. Miami is 31st in pass defense DVOA while also ranking 24th in passing yards per game and 25th in explosive pass rate allowed. They have given up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Pickett is an upside QB2 who could find his way into the top 12 this week.
Tua Tagovailoa: Tagovailoa should rip the Steel Curtain to shreds this week. Tagovailoa has been balling when he’s been active, ranking sixth in PFF passing grade, 12th in big-time throw rate, first in yards per attempt, and sixth in adjusted completion rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). The Steelers are 29th in pressure rate, so he should have all the time he needs in the pocket. Pittsburgh is 31st in passing yards per game and 26th in explosive pass rate allowed. They have surrendered the sixth-highest passing touchdown rate, the eighth-highest yards per attempt, and the eighth-most YAC.
Running Backs
Najee Harris: Harris is a volume-based RB2/3. He’s the RB28 in fantasy points per game with only three top-24 weeks on his resume. He’s averaged 16.3 touches and 55.8 total yards. He’s still been effective in breaking tackles sitting at 18th in juke rate and ninth in evaded tackles, but the big plays aren’t there. He’s 50th in breakaway run rate and 46th in breakaway runs (only one). His offensive line is pitiful, ranking 26th or lower in adjusted line yards, second-level yards, and open field yards. Miami is a tough match-up, ranking top 12 since Week 4 in rushing yards per game (sixth), EPA per rush (12th), and explosive run rate allowed (ninth). The avenue for a ceiling for Harris would be in the passing game, as Miami is 30th in DVOA against receiving backs, but Harris has seen his Target share fall to 8.8% (26th) with four or more targets in only two games.
Raheem Mostert: Since Week 4, Mostert has taken over the running back room. He’s handled 69.1% of the rushing attempts and 55.7% of the routes. Mostert has averaged 17 touches, and 83.7 total yards with at least 62% of the snaps played in each game. He’s 25th in yards after contact per attempt and 23rd in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 15 carries). Pittsburgh is a difficult run defense. They are seventh in adjusted line yards and second-level yards allowed. The Steelers have the 13th-lowest rush success rate and fifth-lowest explosive run rate allowed. Mostert is a low-end RB2.
Chase Edmonds: Since Week 4, Edmonds has only seen 11.8% of the rushing attempts and 29% of the routes. Over that span, he hasn’t played over 37% of the snaps or seen a touch in the red zone. Edmonds SZN is done.
Wide Receivers
Weeks 3-6
Diontae Johnson: Since Week 3, Johnson still leads the team in Target share while soaking up short-area targets. This isn’t to say he won’t get looks downfield because he’s 11th in deep targets (nine). This efficiency has been horrible this season, ranking 40th in PFF receiving grade and 60th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). He’s been the floor option in the Steelers’ passing offense with four games as a top 36 fantasy wide receiver but only one as a WR2 or better. Johnson will run about 90% of his routes against Xavien Howard (69% catch rate, 151.2 passer rating) and a combination of Keion Crossen (66.7% catch rate, 146.8 passer rating) and Noah Igbinoghene (20% catch rate, 41.3 passer rating). Johnson is a WR3.
George Pickens: Pickens has also garnered a Target share north of 20% since Week 3. Before crashing back to earth last week as the WR54, he had stacked back-to-back weeks as a top 24 fantasy wide receiver. Pickens is ranked 46th in PFF receiving grade and 58th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). His role has been as the team’s field stretcher with his 15.7 aDOT (eighth-highest) and 12 deep targets (third). He’s only seen two targets in the red zone. He’ll also run about 90% of his routes on the perimeter against Howard, Crossen, and Igbinoghene. Pickens is a WR3.
Chase Claypool: Claypool’s 17.9% Target share since Week 3 isn’t far off his full season share (17.6%). Last week’s seven grabs and 96 receiving yard day (WR6) stands head and shoulders above the rest of his weeks as his best game of the season. Claypool hasn’t finished higher than WR43 in any other week. He has barely been used in the red zone (three targets) like Pickens. Claypool has only generated 1.02 yards per route run with his 80% slot rate. He’ll see Justin Bethel (career: 57.1% catch rate, 97.1 passer rating) for most of the day as a WR4/5.
Tyreek Hill: Hill has been elite this season by any measure. He’s the WR3 in fantasy, with three games inside the top five scoring wide receivers for the week. Hill is fifth in Target share (31.6%), third in target per route run rate (34.6%), 13th in air yard share (36.8%), and second in deep targets (13). He leads all wide receivers in PFF receiving grade and yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). He’s matchup-proof and a must-start weekly.
Jaylen Waddle: Waddle has been listed as questionable (shoulder) after practicing on a limited basis all week. Waddle is the WR11 in fantasy points per game, commanding a 23.3% Target share (26th) and 28.5% air yard share (30th). He’s 13th in PFF receiving grade and fifth in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). While Hill has been the deep weapon, Waddle has been the YAC master. He’s fifth in YAC per reception (minimum 15 targets). The Steelers are eighth in YAC allowed and 13th (tied) in missed tackles. Waddle is a WR1.
Tight Ends
Pat Freiermuth: Freiermuth is quietly having a breakout season as the TE9 in fantasy points per game. He’s ninth in Target share, seventh in target per route run rate, and fifth in air yard share. He leads all tight ends with seven deep targets while sitting at 15th in red zone looks. Freiermuth ranks sixth in PFF receiving grade and yards per route run (minimum ten targets). He gets a solid matchup against Miami, who is 25th in DVOA while ranking 13th in receiving yards and first in catch rate allowed. Freiermuth is a top-ten tight end.
Mike Gesicki: Gesicki is coming off a big game, but this isn’t a week to go back to him if you have better options. He’s seen his involvement in the offense tick up, with a 12.3% Target share and 67.9% route run rate over the last three games (three red zone targets). Over that stretch, his efficiency has still been uninspiring, with 1.37 yards per route run. He’s a TE2 this week against a Steelers defense that’s a longstanding no-fly zone for tight ends. They are fourth in DVOA with the eighth-lowest catch rate and only one touchdown allowed.
Chicago Bears vs. New England Patriots
Pace and playcalling notes
- Since Week 3, the Bears have picked up their offensive speed (14th in neutral pace) while continuing to run the ball religiously (third in neutral rushing rate).
- The Patriots love to play slow (29th in neutral pace) and feed their running backs (seventh in neutral rushing rate).
Quarterbacks
Justin Fields: Fields has stacked QB13 and QB8 finishes since Week 5. The fantasy finishes have been encouraging, but his overall passing numbers are still not great. Over his last two games, he’s 24th in PFF passing grade, 21st in adjusted completion rate, and tenth in big-time throw rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). The use of his legs is always a help to his floor and ceiling, as he’s third in rushing yards and red zone carries. New England is a buzzsaw pass defense for him, though. They are sixth in pass defense DVOA, ranking 24th in yards per attempt. The Patriots pass rush, which is tenth in pressure rate and eighth in blitz rate, is the biggest concern. Fields ranks 24th in PFF passing grade against pressure with the tenth-highest turnover-worthy play rate (minimum 25 pressured dropbacks). Fields is a low-end QB2.
Mac Jones: After missing the last three weeks, Jones is expected to start this week. Jones hasn’t been great this season, but he could walk away with a solid stat line this week. Jones is 33rd in PFF passing grade and adjusted completion rate, ranking second in big-time throw rate and aDOT (minimum 50 dropbacks). Jones has been pushing the ball down the field at an insane rate. Among all quarterbacks with at least ten deep attempts, he’s first in deep ball rate (20.6%). Chicago is 25th in DVOA against deep passing. Overall the Bears’ secondary allows the 11th-highest success rate per dropback while ranking 21st in EPA per dropback. Jones is a solid QB2.
Running Backs
Weeks 5-6
David Montgomery: Since his return from injury, Montgomery has played at least 72% of the snaps averaging 16 touches and 81 total yards as the RB16 and RB23 in weekly scoring. The Bears have stated they will “ride the hot hand” moving forward, which is bad news for Montgomery. His appeal has come from volume and snap share. If that evaporates, then so does his fantasy appeal. While he’s 12th in evaded tackles, he has one breakaway run this season. Montgomery is 16th in yards created per touch and 24th in yards per touch. While Herbert could eat into his rushing share, he should retain his pass-game role because that’s an area Herbert has never carved out. New England is 17th in rushing yards per game, 22nd in EPA per rush, and 18th in explosive run rate allowed. They have given up the third-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs, as they still have not allowed one touchdown to a running back. Montgomery is a low-floor RB3.
Khalil Herbert: Since Week 5, Herbert has averaged 5.5 touches and 43 rushing yards. Chicago can no longer ignore a running back that’s first in yards after contact per attempt, ninth in breakaway rate, and fifth in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 20 carries). While Herbert likely remains near a zero in the passing game, he can still be a high-ceiling weekly flex based on his rushing talent alone if he can garner 10-12 touches weekly.
Damien Harris: Harris has practiced in full all week and looks to be returning this week. In Weeks 1-4, Harris averaged 15.6 touches and 68.8 total yards. He finished as a top-24 running back in three of four games (RB6, RB22, RB16). Harris is 28th in yards after contact per attempt and 41st in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 15 carries). The Bears are a beautiful matchup for this ground game. Chicago has allowed the sixth-highest rush success rate while also ranking 29th in rushing yards per game and 28th in explosive run rate allowed. Harris is a lock for 15-20 touches as an RB2/3.
Rhamondre Stevenson: Stevenson will be lumped back into a shared backfield after balling out the last two weeks. In Weeks 1-4, he averaged 13.6 touches and 67.1 total yards. He was a top-24 running back in only half of those games. The issue when both Harris and Stevenson are active is Harris has dominated the red zone work. Maybe that swings to a near-even split after Stevenson crushed in Harris’s absence, but it’s not a given. Stevenson is tenth in yards after contact per attempt, 20th in breakaway rate, and 17th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 15 carries). He’s an RB3 with RB2 upside.
Wide Receivers
Darnell Mooney: Since Week 4, Mooney has come alive. He’s ranked 24th in PFF receiving grade and 16th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). He’s the WR28 with a 32.4% Target share (7.3 targets per game) and 54.8% air yard share. Mooney will run about 65% of his routes from the slot against Myles Bryant (72% catch rate, 117.1 passer rating). He’s a low-floor WR3/4.
Jakobi Meyers: Meyers remains an underrated stud. He’s 17th in Target share (26.7%) and eighth in target per route run rate (31.6%) as the WR13 in fantasy points per game. He’s ranked ninth in PFF receiving grade and third in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). While he’s drawn six deep targets in four games played, he’s still yet to see a target in the red zone. Meyers is a strong WR2 who will run about 68% of his routes against one of the worst slot corners in the NFL, Kyler Gordon (80% catch rate, 126.0 passer rating).
Tyquan Thornton: Thornton built upon his 39% snap share in Week 5 to 50% in Week 6. Thornton logged a 72.2% route run rate drawing a 14.7% Target share and three rushing attempts. Thornton made the most of his touches, with 53 total yards and two scores. Thornton is a WR5/6 this week, running about 79% of his routes against Jaylon Johnson (44.4% catch rate, 58.6 passer rating) and Kindle Vildor (56% catch rate, 75.6 passer rating).
DeVante Parker: Parker has finished outside the top 100 fantasy wide receivers in half of his games this season. His 13.1% Target share and 1.51 yards per route run can happily sit on my bench this week. He’ll run about 91% of his routes against Johnson and Vildor.
Tight Ends
Cole Kmet: The Cole Kmet experiment isn’t worth bothering with this week. Not against New England, who is fifth in DVOA against the position allowing the 13th-lowest receiving yards and fifth-lowest catch rate. Kmet has surpassed 20 receiving yards only twice this season.
Hunter Henry: Henry has now stacked three consecutive weeks above 80% snaps. Since Week 4, he’s seen a 22.2% Target share (5.3 targets per game) with a 71.1% route run rate, 2.17 yards per route run, and four red zone targets. Chicago is 19th in DVOA against tight ends ranking 21st in yards per reception and 25th in receiving yards allowed. Henry is a low-end streaming option / TE2.
New Orleans Saints vs. Arizona Cardinals
NO QB: TBD on whether we see another game from Andy Dalton or if Jameis Winston reassumes the starting gig. Dennis Allen has stated they’re taking the starting decision up to kickoff. Fun times. Dalton has played better than his fantasy finishes have indicated (QB23, QB26, QB22). He’s third in PFF passing grade, 17th in adjusted completion rate, and 16th in big-time throw rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). Winston has fared better as a fantasy option with QB7, QB26, and QB14 outings, but he has been worse from a real football perspective. Winston ranks 19th in PFF passing grade and 29th in adjusted completion rate, but he’s flashed the trademark big strikes ranking third in big-time throw rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). Whichever player is under center returns to a surprisingly tough matchup against Arizona. Since Week 4, this pass defense has tightened up. They are eighth in pass defense DVOA while also ranking inside the top 12 in passing yards per game (tenth-fewest), EPA (eighth-lowest), and explosive pass rate (11th-lowest). Dalton and Win
Kyler Murray: Murray’s rushing equity has helped prop up his fantasy value. He’s QB6 in total points thanks to ranking sixth in rushing yards (among quarterbacks). His performance as a passer has been terrible. Terrible is probably still being kind. Among 38 quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks, he’s 27th in PFF passing grade, 36th in yards per attempt, and 29th in big-time throw rate. Because of his legs and a soft matchup, Murray remains a top-ten fantasy quarterback. The Saints’ secondary has been disappointing, ranking 21st in pass defense DVOA while sitting top-ten in passing touchdown rate, passer rating, and yards per attempt allowed.
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara: Kamara has been on a tear since his return from injury. Over the last two games, he’s been the RB8 and RB10, averaging 27 touches and 159 total yards. He’s handled a ridiculous 26.8% Target share averaging 7.5 targets and 58 receiving yards. His yards after contact per attempt have increased in each of the last three games he’s played from 2.20 to 2.63. While the Cardinals’ secondary has played well, you can still run on this defense. Arizona is 26th in explosive run rate while ranking 28th in second-level yards and 21st in open-field yards. Kamara will have a field day against a defense that is DEAD LAST in DVOA against receiving backs giving up the most receiving touchdowns and sixth-highest yards per reception. Kamara is a top-five running back.
Mark Ingram: Ingram isn’t playable with Kamara back. Since Week 5, he’s averaged 27% of the snaps with 9.5 touches and 36.5 total yards. He has only seen a 3.6% Target share and an 18.8% route run rate without any opportunities in the red zone.
James Conner: Conner has been listed as a game-time decision. I doubt he will play this week. It feels like Kingsbury being cagey. In the three games, Conner has played at least 60% of snaps, he has averaged 16.3 touches and 63 total yards. He’s the RB34 in fantasy points per game, ranking 31st in evaded tackles, 35th in juke rate, and 35th in yards created per touch. If he’s active, Conner is a risky RB3.
Darrel Williams: Williams has been ruled out.
Eno Benjamin: Benjamin practiced in full on Wednesday. He isn’t listed on the injury report, so expect a full workload. Last week in a plus matchup, Benjamin crapped the bed with 87% of the snaps, 18 touches, and 65 total yards. He managed only 2.36 yards after contact per attempt and a 41.6 elusive rating. After producing a long run of six yards and 0.72 yards per route run against Seattle, don’t be surprised if Arizona works in Keaontay Ingram more this week. Since Week 4, New Orleans has resumed shutting down the run as they are tenth in rushing yards per game and 13th in explosive run rate allowed. They are ninth in second-level yards and 13th in DVOA against receiving backs (fourth-lowest yards per reception). Benjamin is an RB3.
Keaontay Ingram: Ingram could work in tandem with Benjamin this week or be regulated to a breather role. His 3.6 yards per carry, 2.19 yards after contact per attempt, and zero breakaway runs in the preseason don’t inspire much confidence. Those numbers, though, sell Ingram short. In his final season at USC, he was 22nd in yards after contact per attempt and 41st in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 125 carries). Ingram is a low-floor RB4.
Wide Receivers
Michael Thomas: Thomas has been ruled out.
Jarvis Landry: Landry has been ruled out.
Chris Olave: In Weeks 1-4, Olave commanded a 26.2% Target share (wow) and a 41.9% share of the team’s air yards. He averaged 9.2 targets, 5.2 receptions, and 83.8 receiving yards, with an outstanding 2.46 yards per route run. Overall he’s seventh in yards per route run and sixth in PFF receiving grade (minimum 20 targets) as the WR17 in fantasy points per game. He’ll run about 77% of his routes on the perimeter against Byron Murphy (61.5% catch rate, 94.4 passer rating) and Marco Wilson (61.1% catch rate, 82.2 passer rating). Olave has been a stud. He’s a WR2.
Marquez Callaway: Since Week 4, Callaway has been pressed into action with the Saints overrun by injuries. He’s responded by doing little to nothing. He’s seen an 18.8% Target share (5.3 targets per game) without eclipsing 60 receiving yards in any game. His 1.15 yards per route despite an 86.3% route run rate is mediocre. Even in a bye week crunch, Callaway isn’t a player I would be rolling into my lineup. Olave is likely to gobble up targets while Callaway gets his cardio in running about 94% of his routes against Murphy and Wilson on the outside.
Tre’Quan Smith: Smith will likely take over the slot role with Keith Kirkwood looking likely to miss this game. Over the last two games with Smith also called into action, he’s been unimpressive with a 12.5% Target share and 1.13 yards per route run (73.4% route run rate). Smith likely matches with Murphy inside when the Saints go three wide. Murphy has played outside corner except when teams utilize 11 personnel then he goes inside while Antonio Hamilton helps out on the outside. The Saints could bump their use of three wide this week to sacrifice Smith to Murphy. This would give Olave better matchups on the outside against Wilson and Hamilton (career 67.1% catch rate, 110.1 passer rating). Don’t play Smith.
DeAndre Hopkins: There’s no disputing that Hopkins wasn’t at his peak anymore last year, but he wasn’t bad, either. Hopkins drew a 20.5% Target share (35th) while ranking 15th in PFF receiving grade and 33rd in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets). He was the WR20 in fantasy points per game, ranking 30th in route win rate. He’ll likely reprise his perimeter role, running 80% or more routes on the boundary. He’ll see Bradley Roby (45.7% catch rate, 77.3 passer rating) and Paulson Adebo (78.6% catch rate, 156.0 passer rating) for most of the day. Hopkins is a WR2 with WR1 upside in his first game back.
Rondale Moore: Moore should continue vacuuming up targets in Week 7. Over the last two weeks, he’s seen a 24.3% Target share (nine targets per game) with 1.34 yards per route run as the WR24 and WR34 in weekly scoring. He’s seen three red zone targets in three games played. He’ll run about 83% of his routes against the dust ball known as Chris Harris. Once upon a time, Harris was one of the best slot corners in the league. That fairy tale has long since passed. Harris has allowed all nine targets in his coverage to be secured with a 103.2 passer rating this year. Last year he gave up a 62.7% catch rate and 95.1 passer rating. Moore is a strong WR3.
A.J. Green: Green is a fossil. He’s the WR104 with 56 receiving yards and a 10.4% Target share. He shouldn’t be rostered or played in any league. Any.
Robbie Anderson: Anderson isn’t playable this week. Kliff Kingsbury has stated he’ll be on a snap count if he’s even active.
Tight Ends
Taysom Hill: Hill is slowly on his way to debunking my disdain for his positional eligibility, as he’s up to 31 snaps as a receiver (35 at QB). Hill remains stalled at 3.6 routes per game with only one reception for the year. Hill is the TE5 for the year, thanks to two massive outings. In the other three games, he finished as the TE50, TE16, and TE28. He’s averaging 5.3 rushes and 53.2 rushing yards per game which is skewed by his 112-yard performance. Hill has three games with 35 or more rushing yards. He’s tied with Kamara with five red zone rushing opportunities. He is a weekly home run swing or whiff at the tight end position.
Juwan Johnson: Johnson is the ultimate matchup-based streaming TE2 this week. Arizona has returned to the flow chart days. They are 29th in DVOA against tight ends allowing the most receptions, the fourth-highest catch rate, the most receiving yards, and the third-most fantasy points per game. Johnson saw his route run rate jump to 81.1% last week. He should soak up snaps with Adam Trautman out. Johnson has seen a 12.7% Target share this season with three deep targets, and three red zone looks. He’s 22nd in PFF receiving grade and 30th in yards per route run.
Zach Ertz: Ertz continues to prove that age is just a number. By tight-end standards, he’s not ready for the nursing home just yet, but in his age-32 season, he’s the TE3 in fantasy points per game. He’s managed a 21.6% Target share (sixth-best) while ranking second in route participation and fourth in air yard share. He’s third in red zone targets and 21st in yards per route run. Mute your expectations for this week, though. New Orleans dominates tight ends, ranking first in DVOA with the third-lowest catch rate, fifth-lowest receiving yards, and second-lowest fantasy points per game allowed. Considering bye weeks and the state of the tight end position, you’re starting Ertz based on projected volume alone, but he’s likely a touchdown or bust option this week.
