The Primer: Week 7 Edition (2022 Fantasy Football)

New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos

• DEN -3, O/U 42.5
• Jets vs. Broncos Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• With Zach Wilson under center, the offense has slowed down in close games (22nd) and moved to Breece Hall as the centerpiece of their scoring (14th in neutral rushing rate).
• Denver is 24th in neutral pace while letting Captain Cringe throw at the 14th-highest rate.

Quarterbacks

Zach Wilson: Wilson is unstartable. Over the last two games, he’s averaged 19.5 pass attempts and 160 passing yards with zero passing touchdowns. The Jets are trying to cover up Wilson with a run-dominant offense as much as possible. Do we think that will change this week? Against a pass defense that’s first in DVOA, allowing the lowest passing touchdown rate in the NFL and the second-lowest yards per attempt, the Magic 8 ball says, “don’t count on it.”

Russell Wilson: Russell Wilson has been ruled out for Week 7.

Brett Rypien: Let’s travel back to 2020 when Rypien last saw game action. Among 58 quarterbacks with at least 40 dropbacks, Rypien ranked 56th in PFF passing grade largely due to his second-highest rated turnover-worthy play rate. His other ancillary metrics were impressive. Rypien was fifth in adjusted completion rate, third in big-time throw rate, and 12th in aDOT. Rypien was out there playing with a YOLO attitude. For fantasy purposes, I’d rather that over a 5.2 yards per attempt game manager that looks like a deer in the headlights. Rypien faces down a Jets’ pass defense that has morphed into a juggernaut. Since Week 4, they are fourth in pass defense DVOA with the third-lowest yards per attempt, lowest passer rating, and third-lowest explosive pass rate allowed. If that wasn’t enough, New York is also fifth in pressure rate. He’s a low-end QB2.

Running Backs

Week 4-6

Breece Hall: Hall continues to crush as he’s up to RB8 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 4, he’s averaged 20.3 touches and 132 total yards. He’s top-five in juke rate, yards per route run, breakaway run rate, and yards created per touch. He’s a weekly RB1, regardless of the matchup. Denver isn’t a swiss cheese run defense, but one that Hall can still succeed against. The Broncos are 14th in rush EPA, 15th in explosive run rate, and 21st or lower in every line-yard metric I look at. Hall will have to do most of his work on the ground as Denver is fourth in DVOA against running backs giving up the sixth-lowest yards per reception. Hall is an RB1. 

Michael Carter: Carter still holds flex appeal. Since Hall’s emergence, he’s averaged ten touches and 36.4 total yards (two touchdowns). Since Week 4, he’s played at least 41% of the snaps in every game averaging 7.6 routes. Carter is 16th in juke rate, evaded tackles, and breakaway run rate. He’s a low-end RB3 with decent touchdown equity.

Week 6

Latavius Murray: In his first game with Denver, Murray played 47% of the snaps with 16 touches and 64 total yards. This backfield has quickly evolved into a mess to avoid, if possible. I get it. Bye weeks might not allow you to do so. Denver has said that Gordon will start this week after getting benched in Week 6. Nothing makes sense in Denver. This is the upside down, and Nathaniel Hackett is Vecna. Ok, maybe he’s not nearly as strategically sound, but he’s still the villain of this Mile High story. In case you get any ideas that Murray still has juice left in his legs after last week’s stat line, let me clear it up. He doesn’t. He’s currently 50th in yards after contact per attempt and 53rd in PFF’s elusive rating with zero breakaway runs. Murray has the elusivity of Marshawn Lynch. No, not the supercharged Seattle version. The 2022 version. New York is ninth in adjusted line yards, tenth in open field yards, and allowed the eighth-lowest yards per carry. The Jets have held rushing attacks to the 11th-lowest rushing yards per game and EPA per rush. They are 17th in explosive run rate, but it’s fair to question which back on this roster has enough giddy-up to take advantage of that. Murray is an RB3 whose bottom could fall out if the backfield fully tilts back to Gordon.

Melvin Gordon: Nothing is off the table. Gordon remaining on the bench. Gordon playing 56% of the snaps with 18 touches and 103 total yards as he did in Week 5. We can’t decisively say we know what is rattling around in Hackett’s head at this juncture. Gordon falls into the RB3/4 range with upside for more if he somehow reprises his previous role. Gordon is outside the top 35 running backs in juke rate, evaded tackles, breakaway run rate, and yards created per touch. He is tenth in yards per route run, but that won’t help him much against a defense that’s fourth in DVOA with top-12 marks in yards per reception and receiving yards per game allowed.

Mike Boone: Boone logged the highest route run rate of any of these three backs, but it mattered little. He played 36% of the snaps in Week 6, which amounted to two touches and four total yards. Boone is barely a low-end stash at this point.

Wide Receivers

Garrett Wilson: Since the Jets’ passing volume went in the tank in Week 5, Wilson has led the team with a 23.7% Target share, which amounted to 4.5 targets and 17.5 receiving yards per game. Wilson has been the WR74 and WR84 in those games. With his 5.9 aDOT since Week 5, he’s nothing more than a dart throw WR5/6. Zach Wilson has crushed this entire offense except for the running backs. He’ll run about 57% of his routes from the slot against K’Waun Williams (75% catch rate, 89.9 passer rating). Wilson is a dicey WR4. 

Corey Davis: Since Week 5, Davis has been the steadiest commodity in the Jets’ passing attack. He’s rocked a 91.1% route run rate and a 21.1% Target share. Continuing with the sad theme of a Zach Wilson-led offense, those numbers have equaled four targets, two receptions, and 45 receiving yards per game. Davis will likely see shadow coverage from Patrick Surtain, who has followed D.K. Metcalf, Davante Adams, Michael Pittman, and Mike Williams on 48-75% of their routes. Surtain has been amazing this season, allowing a 55.6% catch rate and 65.4 passer rating. Davis is a low-floor WR5. 

Elijah Moore: Moore is out for Week 7.

Courtland Sutton: Sutton’s stock is dropping like a stone because of his pitiful quarterback. He’s the WR26 in fantasy points per game, but he’s finished as the WR28 and WR68 over the last two weeks. Sutton is 41st in PFF receiving grade, 25th in yards per route run, ninth in deep targets, and sixth in red zone targets (minimum 15 targets). Sutton is still 19th in Target share and 21st in air yard share. His high-value usage can keep him in fantasy managers’ good graces as long as Wilson can get him the ball which is a big if. Bye weeks have thinned the herd, and Sutton is a WR2/3 who will run about 86% of his routes against the talented tandem of Sauce Gardner (43.3% catch rate, 54.2 passer rating) and D.J. Reed (51.9% catch rate, 51.2 passer rating).

Jerry Jeudy: Jeudy is the WR50 in fantasy scoring with a 19.0% Target share (40th) and 25.6% air-yard share (42nd). He’s sixth in deep targets, and 20th in red zone looks. His efficiency numbers also look disgusting, as he’s 58th in PFF receiving grade and 44th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Jeudy is WR3 that will run about 70% of his routes against the best corner matchup on the Jets in Michael Carter (73.1% catch rate, 94.9 passer rating).

Tight Ends

Tyler Conklin: The fall came fast for Conklin. He’s no longer worthy of a roster spot. Since Week 5, he’s averaged 1.5 targets per game with a 42.2% route run rate.

Greg Dulcich: In his first NFL game, Dulcich saw a 12% Target share playing 71% of the snaps with a 79.4% route run rate. He secured two of his three targets with 44 receiving yards and a score. The Jets have allowed the 11th-highest yards per reception and seventh-highest receiving yards per game (zero tds) to tight ends. Dulcich is a high-end TE2 who could sneak into the top 12 this week.

Houston Texans vs. Las Vegas Raiders

• LVR -7, O/U 45.5
• Texans vs. Raiders Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Houston will attempt to slow down (20th) the Raiders’ fast-paced attack (fifth) while the game is close.
• This will be an underrated source of passing volume as Las Vegas is fifth in neutral passing rate, with Houston also sneaking in at 11th.

Quarterbacks

Davis Mills: Mills has been a sophomore game manager. The tall rocket-arm quarterback that we saw last year has been neutered. He’s 25th in deep ball attempts and 22nd in air yards per attempt. If there was ever a spot for Mills to be streamer worthy and flash a glimpse of his 2021 form, it’s this one. Mills is 24th in adjusted completion rate, 35th in big-time throw rate, and 32nd in yards per attempt (minimum 50 dropbacks as the QB34 in fantasy. The Raiders offer a juicy matchup this week, so if you are in a deep league, Mills is worth a look as a streamer. Las Vegas is eighth in success rate per dropback, 25th in passing yards per game, 31st in EPA per drop back, and 24th in explosive pass rate. This defense has allowed THE MOST fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.

Derek Carr: Carr is the QB12 in fantasy scoring, covering up his mediocre play. He’s finished as a top-12 fantasy quarterback in three of five games. His high-value passing attempts have helped the cover-up process, as he’s 11th in deep ball attempts (HOU 21st in DVOA vs. deep passing) and sixth in red zone passing attempts (12th in passing touchdowns). His deeper metrics are blah, as he’s 27th in PFF passing grade, 26th in adjusted completion rate, 22nd in yards per attempt, and 22nd in big-time throw rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). Houston is another favorable matchup for Carr to keep the top-12 train rolling. The Texans are 23rd in passing yards per game, 18th in EPA per drop back, and 29th in explosive pass rate.

Running Backs

Weeks 4-5

Dameon Pierce: This is Dameon Pierce‘s backfield. Since Week 3, Pierce has averaged 23.7 touches and 117.6 total yards. He’s the RB10 in fantasy. Pierce is a straight baller. He’s sixth in yards after contact per attempt, second in missed tackles forced (behind only Nick Chubb), and first in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 15 carries). Pierce will have a tough time on the ground this week, but he can make up for it through the air. Las Vegas has given up the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game, the third-lowest rush EPA, and the seventh-lowest explosive run rate. They are top 11 in adjusted line yards, second-level yards, and open field yards allowed. The area they have struggled is against receiving backs. Las Vegas has surrendered the eighth-most receptions, sixth-most receiving yards, and eighth-highest yards per reception per game. Pierce can put that 9.3% Target share (22nd) to good use. Pierce is an RB1/2.

Josh Jacobs: Apology and L owning time. I’m sorry, Josh Jacobs stans. I was wrong. Jacobs has been the truth this season. Since Week 4, he’s averaged a whopping 29.5 touches and 184 total yards as the RB5 in fantasy points per game. Over the last two games, he’s played at least 81% of the snaps. He’s fourth in yards after contact per attempt, sixth in runs of ten or more yards, 15th in yards per route run, and sixth in PFF’s elusive rating. Houston has allowed the most fantasy points per game to running backs. They have the 12th-highest rush success rate, ranking 30th in rushing yards per game and 29th in explosive run rate. Jacobs is a top-five running back.

Wide Receivers

Brandin Cooks: Cooks has seen a bevy of targets, but he hasn’t done much with them. He’s the WR45 in fantasy points per game despite a 25.9% Target share (19th) and 28.3% air yard share (31st). He’s only seen four deep targets (51st) and three red zone targets (50th). Cooks’ efficiency metrics show his age, as he’s 69th in PFF receiving grade and 55th in yards per route run. He’ll run about 75% of his routes against Amik Robertson (86.7% catch rate, 130.6 passer rating) and Rock Ya-Sin (43.8% catch rate, 62.8 passer rating). Cooks is a volume-based WR2/3.

Nico Collins: While I’ve never been a Nico Collins fan, I’m coming around to it this week. Collins is a fantastic upside flex this week. Don’t let his WR60 standing in fantasy points per game fool you. His efficiency numbers scream a breakout game is coming. He’s only seen a 16.7% Target share, but he’s 23rd in air yard share (32.7%). His 15.1 aDOT (11th) is delicious. He’s 22nd in yards per route run and 39th in PFF receiving grade (minimum 15 targets). Collins will run about 94% of his routes against Robertson and Ya-Sin. Collins is an upside WR4.

Davante Adams: Adams remains a stud. He’s the WR5 in fantasy with a 31.6% Target share (fourth-best) and 27.8% target per route run rate (17th). He is top 12 in air yard share (tenth), deep targets (11th), and red zone targets (first). Overall he’s 12th in PFF receiving grade and 19th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Houston is another zone-heavy defense (63-64%). Adams should eat them alive. He’s ninth in PFF receiving grade and eighth in yards per route run against zone, with 62% of his target volume coming against the coverage type (minimum five zone targets). Adams is a WR1.

Hunter Renfrow: Renfrow could be in for a big bounceback game. There’s some concern though as he’s listed as questionable (hip) he didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday before getting in a limited session Friday. In the three games he’s been active, he has seen a 20.6% Target share with a 79.7% route run rate. Against this zone-heavy defense, he could feast in Week 7. Last year Renfrow was eighth in PFF receiving grade and 12th in yards per route run (minimum 15 zone targets). He’ll run about 90% of his routes from the slot against Desmond King (61.1% catch rate, 60.2 passer rating). Renfrow is an upside WR4/flex.

Mack Hollins: Hollins has finished outside of the top 36 fantasy wide receivers in four of five games. With Renfrow active, he’s only drawn a 12.7% Target share and 20.9% air yard share with 0.77 yards per route run. Sit Hollins. This offense should run through Jacobs, Adams, and Renfrow in Week 7. Hollins has been listed as questionable (heel).

Tight Ends

Darren Waller: Waller has been ruled out.

Foster Moreau: Moreau is a middle-of-the-road tight-end TE2/streamer. Last year in his six games without Waller, he saw a 12.2% Target share running a route on 83% of dropbacks with 1.3 yards per route run. This season in limited action (seven targets), he’s recorded the seventh-highest PFF receiving grade and ranked 11th in yards per route run. The Texans are 17th in DVOA against tight ends allowing the seventh-highest yards per reception and 12th-most receiving yards per game. Last year Moreau saw 60.9% of his targets against zone coverage.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Chargers

• LAC -7, O/U 52.5
• Seahawks vs. Chargers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Play volume shouldn’t be a problem here as the Chargers are 13th in neutral pace, followed by Seattle at 14th.
• Seattle is oddly leading the way, ranking 12th in neutral passing rate, as the Bolts have utilized the ground game more (19th in neutral passing rate).

Quarterbacks

Geno Smith: After setting the kitchen on fire last week, Chef Geno is ready to reprise his culinary mastery in Week 7. He’s a locked-in QB1 this week. He’s still the QB8 in fantasy scoring, ranking second in PFF passing grade, fifth in big-time throw rate, and seventh in yards per attempt (minimum 50 dropbacks). Smith is seventh in deep ball completion rate and ninth in deep ball attempts taking on a pass defense that’s 27th in explosive pass rate and 28th in DVOA against deep passing. Los Angeles is also fifth in passing touchdown rate. Cook. Chef. Cook.

Justin Herbert: Herbert is a stud and a top-12 quarterback weekly. He’s QB9 in fantasy scoring while ranking top 12 in true, deep ball, pressured, and play-action completion rates. He hasn’t been going deep this year which will actually help him this week. Herbert is 32nd in air yards per attempt and 33rd in aDOT. Lucky for him Seattle is 25th in DVOA against short passing. The struggles for this pass defense are centered around YAC and tackling. They have surrendered the second-most YAC in the NFL and lead the league in missed tackles. This game has all the trappings of a shootout.

Running Backs

Week 5

Kenneth Walker: Walker is THAT DUDE. I will hear no other arguments. In his first game as the starter, he played 69% of the snaps with 23 touches and 110 total yards. He’s ranked 22nd in yards after contact per attempt, first in breakaway rate, and third in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 20 carries). Walker is an RB1 in a cakewalk matchup. The Chargers have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. They are 23rd in rushing yards per game, 28th in EPA per rush, and 16th in explosive run rate. After finishing as the RB8 last week, Walker should find himself in the top ten again in Week 7.

Austin Ekeler: This is Ekeler’s world, and we’re just living in it. He’s the RB1 in fantasy averaging 21 touches and 130.4 total yards over his last three games. He’s matchup-proof with his 20.5% Target share (second) and ninth-best yards per route run. He’s first in weighted opportunities, and fourth in red zone touches. Seattle is sixth in fantasy points per game given up to running backs. The Seahawks have no clue how to stop running backs not named Eno Benjamin. They are 31st in rushing yards per game, 27th in EPA per rush, and 20th in explosive run rate. To make matters worse for the Seattle fan base, they are 31st in DVOA with the sixth-most receptions and third-most receiving yards conceded to running backs. Ekeler is my RB1 overall in Week 7.

Wide Receivers

D.K. Metcalf: Metcalf is the WR27 in fantasy with a 27.3% Target share (16th) and 37.5% air yard share (eighth). He’s also ninth in deep targets and 11th in red zone targets. Metcalf ranks 31st in PFF receiving grade and 18th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). He’s a strong WR2 that will run about 82% of his routes on the perimeter, but mostly against Asante Samuel (61.4% catch rate, 86.4 passer rating) since Seattle plays sides with their receivers.

Tyler Lockett: Lockett is the WR21 in fantasy points per game, but he’s a WR1 this week in a shootout. He has shown no signs of skill erosion, ranking 17th in PFF receiving grade and 15th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). He leads the team with 11 deep targets (sixth-best). He’s a big play threat that hasn’t seen many looks in the red zone (three red zone targets). When he’s not in the slot (42%) against Bryce Callahan (63.6% catch rate, 63.3 passer rating), he’ll be lighting up J.C. Jackson (73.9% catch rate, 155.3 passer rating), who can’t catch a cold these days.

Mike Williams: Big Mike has been feast or famine as the WR24 in fantasy. Williams has three games as the WR13 or better. In his three other games, he’s finished as the WR97, WR54, and WR65. This week feels more like forced starvation than early Thanksgiving dinner. Williams is 36th in PFF receiving grade and 47th in yards per route run, which aren’t exactly rosy results (minimum 15 targets). He’s seen solid usage both deep (15th in deep targets) and inside the 20 (11th, eight red zone targets). The issue for Williams is he’ll match up with two outstanding corners for about 82% of his routes in Tariq Woolen (55.6% catch rate, 38.6 passer rating) and Michael Jackson (59.1% catch rate, 91.3 passer rating). Williams is a volatile WR2.

Keenan Allen: Allen has been listed as questionable (hamstring). He’s been limited in practice all week. Currently I think Allen returns this week. He’s been deemed a game-time decision. Per reports if he is active he could be on a snap count. In his only game action this year, he snagged all four of his targets for 66 yards with 5.08 yards per route run (50% slot). Last year he handled a 25% Target share with 30.5% of the team’s air yards. If he’s in the lineup expect him to be utilized when he’s on the field. While his overall snaps might be limited his target per route rate could be high. Last year he was 20th (26.7%) in target per route rate (TPRR). Mike Williams has averaged 39 routes per game. Even cutting that route total in half with Allen’s target per route rate from last year we’re staring at 5.2 projected targets. Even bumping it up to the 33% he saw in Week 1 puts him at 6.4 targets, so on a conservative pitch count this is about the volume you’re looking at with Allen, so he’s only in WR3 territory. He’ll run about half of his routes against Coby Bryant (60.9% catch rate, 115.9 passer rating).

Joshua Palmer: Palmer has been ruled out (concussion).

Tight Ends

Gerald Everett: Everett has been a trusted weapon for Herbert, with a 15.1% Target share (13th) and five red zone targets (eighth). He’s the TE10 in fantasy with the sixth-most routes run. Everett is 13th in PFF receiving grade, 17th in yards per route run, and 17th in YAC per reception. He should be peppered this week. Seattle is 30th in DVOA against tight ends, with the highest yards per reception allowed. They are also second in receiving yards and third in touchdowns allowed. Everett is a top-five tight end this week.

Noah Fant: Flip a coin. Pick a name out of a hat. That’s how it feels attempting to pick which SEA tight end to play weekly. Fant leads Dissly with a 12.4% Target share, but their route run rate and red zone usage are nearly identical. Fant is ninth in PFF receiving grade and 16th in yards per route run facing off against a defense ranked 23rd in DVOA against tight ends. Los Angeles has the tenth-lowest catch rate permitted, but they are also third in yards per reception allowed. Fant is a dice roll streamer.

Will Dissly: Dissly is 15th in PFF receiving grade and 11th in yards per route run among tight ends (minimum ten targets) with the same plus matchup. If Fant is rostered, then your streamer decision is easy with Dissly. Dissly has three games this season as a top-eight fantasy tight end. In the other three weeks, he was TE28 or lower.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers

• KC -3, O/U 48
• Chiefs vs. 49ers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• No major shockers in this game. The Chiefs move fast (12th in neutral pace) and like to pass a lot (third in neutral passing rate). The 49ers are allergic to both of those avenues as they are 28th and 11th in neutral pace and neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes: Mahomes torched a vaunted Bills’ secondary last week with 338 passing yards and 8.5 yards per attempt (QB6). This week, he gets another stiff test against the 49ers’ elite pass defense. Never count out elite quarterbacks, even in bad matchups. Mahomes is fourth in PFF passing grade and 12th in adjusted completion rate as the QB4 in fantasy points per game. San Francisco has held quarterbacks to the lowest EPA per dropback, the third-lowest explosive pass rate, the second-lowest passing touchdown rate, and the sixth-lowest yards per attempt. The 49ers can also bring pressure (second in pressure rate) without blitzing (18th in blitz rate). Mahomes is first in PFF passing grade against pressure and fifth in pressured passer rating (minimum 25 pressured dropbacks).

Jimmy Garoppolo: Garoppolo has stacked back-to-back games as the QB9 in fantasy. He’s a borderline QB1/2 this week. Garoppolo is 21st in PFF passing grade, 29th in adjusted completion rate, and eighth in yards per attempt (minimum 50 dropbacks). Kansas City has been a burnable pass defense, ranking 28th in DVOA, 24th in EPA per drop back, and fourth in passing touchdown rate. Garoppolo’s day will be made or wrecked by the Chiefs’ pass rush. Kansas City is fourth in pressure rate and seventh in blitz rate. Garoppolo is 28th in PFF pressured passing grade and 24th in adjusted pressured completion rate (minimum 25 pressured dropbacks). If Kansas City’s pass rush can get home, Garoppolo will fold. If not, he can have himself a day.

Running Backs

Weeks 1-6

Clyde Edwards-Helaire: Edwards-Helaire has averaged 12.5 touches and 65.5 total yards this season as the RB17 in fantasy. He’s 32nd in opportunity share, 26th in weighted opportunities, and 16th in red zone touches. With a limited workload, he’s relied upon touchdowns and efficiency. He ranks 15th in breakaway runs, 19th in yards per touch, and 15th in yards per route run. This is a brutal matchup that downgrades Edwards-Helaire to volatile RB3 status. The 49ers are top-ten in rushing yards per game, EPA per rush, and explosive run rate allowed. They have given up the fewest fantasy points per game to running backs this season.

Jerick McKinnon: McKinnon is the same weekly proposition as Edwards-Helaire. He’s just the watered-down version. McKinnon has averaged only 6.3 touches and 31.1 total yards. His efficiency has been good, ranking 11th in juke rate, 26th in yards per touch, and 17th in breakaway run rate. His volume and red zone usage (28th in red zone touches) is a step down from Edwards-Helaire. This isn’t the week to flex McKinnon.

Isiah Pacheco: Pacheco’s value rests entirely on early down production. That’s not a role to remotely consider even in the deepest of leagues this week, considering the matchup.

Weeks 5-6

Christian McCaffrey: Arguably the best running back in the NFL now resides on a team that loves to run the ball. McCaffrey might be inactive this week or be regulated to limited snaps. If McCaffrey is active, it’s simple. You play him. If active, McCaffrey will be a top-15 running back, even on a snap count this week. The 49ers are third in red zone rushing rate, so McCaffrey could easily finish with multiple touchdowns, even on a pitch count. He’s the RB4 in fantasy points per game, ranking first in opportunity share and second in weighted opportunities. He has averaged 19.7 touches and 111.7 total yards with a 22.4% Target share (first). He’s tenth in breakaway runs, ninth in yards created per touch, and 11th in evaded tackles. The Chiefs have not been kind to rushing production, with the fourth-lowest rushing yards per game, tenth-lowest rush EPA, and second-lowest explosive run rate allowed. Kansas City is 26th in DVOA against pass-catching running backs, surrendering the most receptions and receiving yards to the position. McCaffrey could get a few targets here, especially in the event the 49ers are trailing. While McCaffrey won’t have time to learn pass protection assignments this week, asking him to get on the field and run angle routes or take check downs in the flat isn’t a tall order.

Jeff Wilson: Wilson is a low-end RB2 if McCaffrey is out. If McCaffrey is active, Wilson is a low-end RB4. Last week broke Wilson’s streak of four straight games as the RB25 or better in fantasy. As the starter, he averaged 15.6 touches and 88.0 total yards. With only eight targets over the last five games, his value is entirely tied to early down production. Wilson has been an effective volume rusher, ranking 11th in breakaway run rate, 16th in evaded tackles, and 16th in yards per touch. Wilson’s upside in this game lies from the 49ers running away with the game. The thesis or hope would be that Wilson would be used to salt the clock away.

Wide Receivers

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Valdes-Scantling is a WR5/6. He’s garnered a replaceable 15.6% Target share producing 1.21 yards per route run and only two games as WR40 or better in fantasy. The 49ers are a zone-heavy defense (62-66%). Valdes-Scantling has only seen 35.5% of his targets against zone with putrid results (1.31 yards per route run).

JuJu Smith-Schuster: Smith-Schuster has been the most consistent source of volume in the Chiefs’ passing attack outside of Kelce with a 18.6% Target share and at least eight targets in four of six games. He’s been more of a floor option with four weeks inside the top 40 fantasy wide receivers (WR37, WR35, WR38, WR7), but only one game inside the top 20. He’s 32nd in yards per route run and 16th in red zone targets among wide receivers. The 49ers’ cornerback room is banged up, so Smith-Schuster could leave Week 7 with a nice stat line. He’ll run about 56% of his routes against Samuel Womack (72.7% catch rate, 109.7 passer rating) and Dontae Johnson (career: 64.9% catch rate, 104.2 passer rating). Smith-Schuster is a WR3 with WR2 upside.

Deebo Samuel: Samuel is a WR1 this week. He’s commanded a 29.3% Target share (ninth-best) and 32.0% target per route rate (sixth). His 5.1 aDOT could be in line to change with McCaffrey on the team. We could see Samuel utilized more in the intermediate and deep areas of the field as soon as this week. Last season Samuel was first in yards per route run and second in passer rating when targeted deep (minimum ten deep targets, per PFF). The Chiefs are 27th in DVOA against deep passing. Samuel is ranked 29th in PFF receiving grade and 23rd in yards per route run. Samuel will run about 63% of his routes against Joshua Williams (60% catch rate, 131.3 passer rating) and Jaylen Watson (61.5% catch rate, 84.3 passer rating).

Brandon Aiyuk: Aiyuk has a 22.6% Target share and a 22.8% target per route run rate. His WR4 finish last week has puffed up his standing in fantasy points per game to WR30. That’s the only game he’s finished as a top-30 wide receiver this season. Aiyuk is better viewed as an upside WR4. He’s ranked tenth in PFF receiving grade and 32nd in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). He’ll run about 75% of his routes against Joshua Williams (60% catch rate, 131.3 passer rating) and Jaylen Watson (61.5% catch rate, 84.3 passer rating).

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce: Kelce remains the king of tight ends. He’s the TE1 in fantasy points per game while also ranking second in Target share, first in receiving yards, first in red zone targets, and third in route participation. Kelce is first in PFF receiving grade and second in yards per route run behind only Mark Andrews (minimum ten targets). He’s a zone crusher ranking sixth in PFF, receiving grade and yards per route run (42.3% of his target volume) among all tight ends and wide receivers with at least five zone targets.

George Kittle: Kittle finally finished with a top-five tight end week against ATL (TE5). The alarm whistles were starting to signal. Could his laundry list of injuries have caught up to him? He’s ranked 17th in PFF receiving grade and 12th in yards per route run (minimum ten targets). Kittle has drawn a 21.4% Target share (fifth) and 11.3% air yard share (14th). This week he faces a team that’s 18th in DVOA, ranking 22nd in receptions with the tenth-lowest yards per reception allowed to tight ends. The Chiefs are tied for the third-most receiving touchdowns allowed to tight ends.