Green Bay Packers vs. Washington Commanders

• GB -5, O/U 41.5
• Packers vs. Commanders Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• This will be one of the slowest games on the slate. Washington is 21st in neutral pace, with the Packers pulling up the rear at 27th.
• The Packers are 13th in neutral passing rate, so that’s good, but their pace will limit their overall passing volume. Washington is 16th in neutral passing rate, but that’s subject to possibly change depending on who will be under center this week.

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers is a low-end QB1/high-end QB2. He’s yet to finish as a top-12 quarterback this season despite dancing around it over the last four weeks (QB13, QB14, QB14, QB19). Rodgers’ play has been erratic as he’s 11th in PFF passing grade and fourth in big-time throw rate, but he’s also 16th in adjusted completion rate and 25th in yards per attempt. This is a good bounce-back spot if his line can keep him clean, which is a big IF. Washington has allowed the second-highest passing touchdown rate while also ranking sixth in yards per attempt (19th pass defense DVOA). The Commanders are also third in pressure rate and sixth in blitz rate. Rodgers’ rollercoaster play again shows up against the blitz. He’s been the ninth-most pressured quarterback in the NFL this season. Against the blitz (minimum 20 blitzed dropbacks), he’s 10th in PFF passing grade and sixth in big-time throw rate while also sitting at 18th in yards per attempt and adjusted completion rate.

Taylor Heinicke: We know who Heinicke is at this point. He is a low-end QB2 that can creep into QB1 territory when his rushing is amped up. He was QB20 in fantasy points per game last season. Heinicke was 31st in PFF passing grade, 21st in yards per attempt, and 25th in adjusted completion rate (minimum 200 dropbacks). He managed six QB1 outings (15 games started). In four of those top 12 weeks, he rushed for 20 yards or more. The Packers’ pass defense has also been up and down. While they have allowed the 12th-highest yards per attempt and tenth-highest QBR, they are stout in most other metrics. Green Bay is ninth in pass defense DVOA allowing the seventh-lowest passing touchdown rate and fourth-lowest success rate per dropback.

Running Backs

Week 1-6

Aaron Jones: In Week 6, the Packers backfield reverted to a near-even split. While Jones was on the wrong side of the early down work (45% vs. 50%), he still held the upper hand in routes (55.1% vs. 38.8%). At this point in the season, Matt LaFleur’s usage of this backfield is almost comical. If the Packers want to cure part of what ails them, Jones should be running as the majority leader of this department. Jones remains one of the best runners in the NFL, ranking tenth in yards after contact per attempt and PFF’s elusive rating. He’s the RB19 averaging 14.5 touches and 88.7 total yards. Jones is 13th in yards created per touch and top-seven in breakaway runs and breakaway run rate. Washington looks like a tough on-paper matchup for Jones as they have limited the opposition to the fifth-lowest rushing success rate, seventh-lowest rush EPA, and are top 12 in adjusted line yards and second-level yards. If Jones threads the needle with his explosive ability, he could shock everyone with a wonderful week. Washington is also 24th in rushing yards allowed per game, which can be traced to their 26th ranking in open field yards. Jones remains a top-15 back.

A.J. Dillon: Dillon is the RB39 in fantasy points per game with four top 36 weeks (RB9, RB35, RB33, RB22). He’s averaged a similar volume to Jones (14.4 touches, 61 yards), but hasn’t done nearly enough with it. He’s the RB22 in expected fantasy points per game, but with his efficiency metrics, it’s easy to see how he’s underperforming. Dillon is 44th in yards created per touch, 26th in juke rate, and 49th in breakaway run rate. He’s only 42nd in yards after contact per attempt and 55th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 20 carries). Dillon is an RB3 that likely disappoints this week.

Week 6

Brian Robinson: Robinson got the start in his second game back, playing 47% of the snaps with 17 carries and 60 rushing yards. Robinson handled all of the red zone work but sadly didn’t run a route. The Commanders bumped up his usage a good bit after only playing 29% of the snaps in Week 5. He played much better last week than in his first game, with 2.59 yards after contact per attempt and a 45.7 elusive rating (per PFF). Overall this season, these numbers aren’t great, as they would rank 54th and 43rd out of 70 running backs with at least 15 carries, but it’s a big improvement. Green Bay is a smash matchup for Robinson. They have allowed the highest rush success rate in the NFL. The Packers are also 27th in rushing yards per game, 31st in explosive run rate, and 11th in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs. With zero role in the passing game to this point, Robinson is in danger of getting game scripted out this Week, but if Washington can remain close, he could be an RB3 that finishes top 24 (if he gets in the end zone).

Antonio Gibson: Gibson is a high-end stash. While he was productive with his 26% snaps played (eight touches, 53 yards), this backfield remains in flux. Gibson could easily see his role turn to dust this week with the backfield narrowing to two players. Despite the solid matchup and his explosiveness last week, he’s too risky to consider flexing.

J.D. McKissic: Last week McKissic finished with 30% of the snaps, two touches, and 20 yards. He kept the edge in route rate. That shouldn’t change moving forward, as he’s the best receiving back on the roster. Usage could flip this week with this turning into a McKissic game if the Packers get out in front quickly. McKissic is eighth in Target share (14.6%) and 19th in yards per route run. Even if that happens, don’t get too excited about his prospects, as the Packers have been tough against backs in the passing game. Green Bay is tenth in DVOA with the seventh-lowest yards per reception, and fourth-lowest receptions per game surrendered. McKissic is a low-end PPR flex.

Wide Receivers

Allen Lazard: Despite only cresting 50 yards receiving twice, Lazard is the WR20 in fantasy. Why? Touchdowns. Lazard has scored in four of his five games. His peripheral metrics are solid but not outstanding. He’s 33rd in PFF receiving grade and 43rd in yards per route run (78 WRs, minimum 20 targets). Lazard has generated a 19.5% Target share (39th) and 37.0% air yard share (12th). He’s 23rd in weighted opportunity (minimum ten targets). Lazard will run about 62% of his routes against Benjamin St.-Juste (48.4% catch rate, 79.8 passer rating) and Kendall Fuller (66.7% catch rate, 137.1 passer rating). Lazard is a WR2.

Romeo Doubs: Since assuming a full-time role in the Packer offense (Week 3), Doubs is the WR35 in fantasy points per game. He’s handled a 19.6% Target share and 22.8% of the team’s air yards. He’s been the short-area weapon for Rodgers (8.6 aDOT). Now that the rookie buzz has died down, we can discuss that Doubs has struggled. He’s 69th in PFF receiving grade and 61st in yards per route run (minimum 20 targets). He’s managed four deep targets (51st) and six red zone targets (20th). Doubs is a WR3/4 who will run about 82% of his routes against St.-Juste and Fuller.

Terry McLaurin: McLaurin has been disappointing this season. He’s the WR40 in fantasy who has only created a 16.4% Target share (57th), 26.6% air yard share (34th), and 1.49 yards per route run (49th, minimum ten targets). Washington has turned him into a low-volume field stretcher (third in deep targets, 12). This is the role to hold if you want to seize upside against Green Bay, as they are 31st in DVOA against deep passing. He’ll run about 81% of his routes against Jaire Alexander (66.7% catch rate, 64.3 passer rating) and Eric Stokes (88.9% catch rate, 118.8 passer rating). McLaurin is a WR3/4.

Curtis Samuel: Samuel might be the WR29 in fantasy points per game, but he’s been on the slide. Over the last four games, he hasn’t finished higher than WR30 (WR38, WR49, WR30, WR76). He’s garnered a 22.1% Target share (30th), but he hasn’t done much with this truck load of short targets (4.8 aDOT). He’s 36th in receiving yards and 28th in YAC per reception. He’s a WR4 in PPR leagues running 70% of his routes against Rasul Douglas (78.9% catch rate, 86.2 passer rating).

Jahan Dotson: Dotson was able to practice on a limited basis Wednesday and Thursday before sitting out Friday. With Rivera stating that they’ll err on the safe side with Dotson, this feels like a smoke screen by the time. Dotson feels more doubtful than truly questionable. Even if he’s active, we can’t say that Dotson will play a full complement of snaps. With only a 13.2% Target share (73rd) this season and now operating as the third or fourth receiving option in a Heinicke-led offense, Dotson is a sit.

Tight Ends

Logan Thomas: Thomas has been ruled out.

Robert Tonyan: In Weeks 1-5, Tonyan had a 12.2% Target share with a mediocre 53.3% route run rate. Last week those numbers increased to 27.3% and 75.5%. Could this be the beginning of heavier usage from Green Bay? Possibly. It could also be an anomaly. Only time will tell. After last week’s explosion, Tonyan is the TE11 overall, more of a reflection of the position. That’s only his second game this season inside the top 12 in weekly fantasy scoring. Tonyan has seen fruitful usage in the red zone with five targets (eighth). He’s 11th in PFF receiving grade and eighth in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). The matchup is ok, with Washington ranking 21st in DVOA with the 12th-highest yards per reception but second-lowest catch rate and only one receiving touchdown allowed. Tonyan is a borderline TE1.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers

• TB -10.5, O/U 40.5
• Buccaneers vs. Panthers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Despite their recent offensive shortcomings, Tampa Bay remains a volume factory. They are fourth in neutral pace and eighth in neutral passing rate.
• Carolina has been terrible, but that hasn’t stopped them from leading the NFL in neutral pace (20th in neutral passing rate).

Quarterbacks

Tom Brady: Brady is a low-end QB1. He faces a Carolina pass defense that’s 25th in DVOA, but they have been slightly below average in most metrics. Carolina is 18th in passing touchdown rate, 22nd in yards per attempt, and 11th in EPA per dropback allowed. The zone-heavy approach of Carolina helps Brady, who is 11th in EPA per play against zone. Brady hasn’t been smashing the opposition as he is seventh in PFF passing grade and 11th in big-time throw rate, but he’s also only 19th in adjusted completion rate and 25th in yards per attempt (minimum 50 dropbacks).

P.J. Walker: In his only start this season, Walker attempted only 16 passes with 3.7 yards per attempt. Sometimes fantasy football doesn’t have to be hard. Against one of the best pass defenses in the NFL, there is no reason to look at placing Walker in your starting lineup. Even in Superflex. No. Don’t do it.

Running Backs

Week 4-6

Leonard Fournette: Fournette has been a high-value touch machine as the RB6 in fantasy. He’s sixth in opportunity share and third in weighted opportunity averaging 21.1 touches and 95.9 total yards. While he hasn’t been a big play breaker (43rd in breakaway run rate), he’s been effective. Fournette is 26th in yards created per touch, sixth in evaded tackles, and 19th in juke rate. Fournette is a locked-in RB1 against a beatable Panthers defense. Carolina is 26th in rushing yards per game, 25th in explosive run rate, and 25th in DVOA (ninth-highest yards per reception) against receiving backs.

Rachaad White: White remains a high-end stash/low-end PPR flex. Since his emergence over the last three weeks, he’s averaged 7.7 touches and 40.4 total yards (4.3 targets per game). He has finished as the RB18, RB41, and RB38. If you’re strapped because of bye weeks, you’re playing him for his pass game role because he’s still one of the worst rushers in the NFL. Among all running backs with 15 or more carries (70), White is ranked dead last in yards after contact per attempt and 68th in PFF’s elusive rating. White does carry some red zone equity. If he spikes it for six points, he’ll be inside the top 24-30 running backs with his usual volume.

Steve Wilks: RB will be a committee approach, and then Panthers will ride the hot hand.

— Joe Person (@josephperson) October 21, 2022

2021

2022

D’Onta Foreman: After the trade of Christian McCaffrey to the 49ers, the hot-button question is, “who will be the running back to target here?” My answer is…shoulder shrug. The interim head coach has said it will be a hot-hand situation. The reality is that usage here could be variable in-game or week-to-week. Yes, the Panthers added Foreman last offseason after Hubbard’s ineffectiveness in 2021, but we’re guessing on how much involvement the front office versus Matt Rhule had in that decision. With Rhule gone, all cards are off the table. The 2022 samples for each back are small, so take this data with a grain of salt. We have much larger sets to work with for each player in 2021. From that, Foreman was better than Hubbard by a mile. Foreman was 15th in yards after contact per attempt, 12th in breakaway rate, and 19th in PFF elusive rating (minimum 100 carries). He also bested Hubbard in yards per route run and pass-blocking grade. Foreman was seventh in yards per route run among all running backs with at least ten targets. Foreman is a low-floor RB3 in a terrible matchup. The Buccaneers are a tough defense, so don’t expect sexy stat lines. Tampa Bay has allowed the 11th-highest rush success rate, but they have also held opposing offenses to the fourth-lowest explosive run rate and are 14th in rushing yards per game. These backs will also have an uphill battle in the passing game. Tampa Bay is second in DVOA, conceding the lowest yards per reception and third-fewest receptions per game.

Chuba Hubbard: Hubbard’s numbers from last season aren’t as good as Foreman’s, but he’s not a total scrub. He’s a different type of rusher. He isn’t a prolific tackle breaker but more of a runway back with breakaway speed. Hubbard was 39th in yards after contact per attempt, 21st in breakaway rate, and 41st in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 100 carries). He logged seven games last year in which he played at least 50% of the snaps. He was a top 36 running back in fantasy in 85.7% of games and an RB2 or better 57.1% of the time. Hubbard is a desperation flex that’s better off avoided this week.

Wide Receivers

Mike Evans: Despite Evans bricking with a WR45 finish last week, he remains the WR14 in fantasy points per game. Evans has drawn a 16.8% Target share in full games played with a 45.5% end zone Target share and 26.8% air yard share. He’s 21st in PFF receiving grade and 20th in yards per route run (minimum 20 targets). The Panthers remain a zone-centric defense, with their corners deployed in zone on 64-68% of their snaps. Evans has seen 42.4% of his target volume against zone, ranking 30th in PFF receiving grade and 23rd in yards per route run (minimum five zone targets). Jaycee Horn (38.9% catch rate, 23.8 passer rating) sat out last week (ribs). We’ll see if he’s able to suit up this week. If not, Evans will run about 72% of his routes against Donte Jackson (73.1% catch rate, 89.4 passer rating) and C.J. Henderson (75% catch rate, 103.4 passer rating). Horn worked in limited practices on Wednesday and Thursday before upgrading to full on Friday. I think he’ll be back this week, so that’ll put Evans matching up with Horn and Jackson if he is. Horn has only shadowed once this season as he followed Amari Cooper on 46% of his routes, limiting him to two receptions and eight receiving yards. Evans is a borderline WR1/2.

Chris Godwin: After only logging a 51.9% route run rate in Week 5, Godwin announced he was fully back in Week 6. He swallowed up a 34.2% Target share, 48.4% of the team’s air yards, and a 92.9% route run rate. Godwin is eighth in PFF receiving grade and 16th in yards per route run (minimum 20 targets). He’s in line to eviscerate the Panthers’ zone defense. Godwin has seen 83.3% of his target volume against zone. He’s seventh in PFF receiving grade and third in yards per route run against zone (minimum five zone targets). He’ll run about 76% of his routes from the slot against Myles Hartfield (75% catch rate, 133.2 passer rating). Godwin is a top-ten wide receiver.

Julio Jones: Jones has been ruled out.

Russell Gage: Over the last three games, Gage has been an afterthought in this offense. He’s only seen a 10.7% Target share and 12.5% of the team’s air yards. He’s finished as the WR72, WR69, and WR61. Gage’s aDOT (5.5) has been pitiful. He has been involved in the red zone with five looks over that stretch, but he’s a touchdown-dependent WR5/6. He’ll run about 53% of his routes against Jackson and Henderson.

D.J. Moore: Moore is unstartable with P.J. Walker under center. Even though he drew seven targets last week, he finished with three receptions and seven receiving yards. Moore is a hold on your roster until we presumably get Sam Darnold or Baker Mayfield back under center. This offense has cratered outside of McCaffrey. Sad times.

Tight Ends

Cade Otton: Cameron Brate has been ruled out (neck). The last time Brate was out, Otton drew a 14% Target share (seven targets), securing six receptions for 43 yards (0.88 yards per route run). He played 96.1% of the snaps with a 94.2% route run rate as the TE12 for the week. Carolina is 23rd in DVOA against tight ends with the third-highest catch rate allowed. Otton is a TE2 and a decent streaming option.

New York Giants vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

• JAC -3, O/U 42.5
• Giants vs. Jaguars Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Giants have slowed to 17th in neutral pace while continuing to feed Saquon Barkley (fourth in neutral rushing rate).
• Jacksonville moves at lightning speed (sixth in neutral pace), but they are a run-balanced affair (18th in neutral passing rate).

Quarterbacks

Daniel Jones: Jones is a solid mid-range QB2. He’s the QB19 in fantasy points per game with one QB1 finish under his belt. The Giants have turned him into a glorified game manager. He’s 19th in PFF passing grade and 1st in adjusted completion rate because he’s been a play-it-safe always quarterback (minimum 50 dropbacks). He has the sixth-lowest big-time throw rate, lowest aDOT, and eighth-lowest yards per attempt (minimum 50 dropbacks). The only avenue offering him any ceiling is his rushing ability, as he’s fifth among quarterbacks in rushing yards per game and third in rushing touchdowns. The Jaguars overall are 13th in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve been more pliable since Week 4. Over their last three games, they are 21st in pass defense DVOA, ranking 20th in passing yards per game, 18th in EPA per drop back, and 27th in explosive pass rate.

Trevor Lawrence: Speaking of game managers, that’s the role Jacksonville is asking Lawrence to fill. He’s the QB14 in fantasy points per game, but there’s some noise there. He does have three top 12 weeks, but two rushing touchdowns fueled one. He’s only eclipsed 250 passing yards in 50% of his games. Lawrence is 30th in PFF passing grade, 17th in big-time throw rate, 11th in adjusted completion rate, and 22nd in aDOT and yards per attempt. Since Week 4, the Giants are 12th in pass defense DVOA, but most of their metrics are middle-of-the-road. Over the last three games, they are 18th in success rate per dropback, 17th in EPA per drop back, and 17th in explosive pass rate. Lawrence is a good QB2 who will surprise with some more top 12 weeks moving forward.

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley: Barkley remains the king of the hill as RB2 in weekly fantasy scoring. He hasn’t finished lower than RB17 in any week averaging 23.3 touches and 128.5 total yards. Barkley is top-three in snap share, opportunity share, and weighted opportunity. He’s top 15 in nearly every efficiency metric, namely breakaway run rate (15th), yards per route run (13th), yards created per touch (15th), and evaded tackles (fifth). The Jaguars’ run defense has taken a nosedive since Week 4. Over the last three weeks, they are 17th in run defense DVOA, 19th in rushing yards per game, 25th in rush EPA, and 19th in explosive run rate allowed. They have also conceded the second-most receptions and receiving yards to running backs. Start Barkley weekly.

Week 3-6

Travis Etienne: Since Week 3, Etienne has been a big-play waiting to happen. He’s averaging 12.3 touches and 82.3 total yards. Over the last four games, he’s 22nd in yards after contact per attempt, fifth in breakaway rate, and 19th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 15 carries). He’s the RB37 in fantasy points per game, but he’s been a top 36 back in five of six games including a top 24 fantasy back in each of the last two weeks. The Giants offer a SMASH matchup in Week 7. New York is 28th in rushing yards per game, 29th in EPA per rush, and 30th in explosive run rate allowed. The Giants are also giving up the highest yards per reception to backs. Etienne is a high-upside RB2.

James Robinson: Robinson’s decline continues. His snap share has settled into the low 40% range (42% over his last two games). He’s the RB21 in fantasy points per game, but he’s only mustered one top-24 game since Week 3. He just logged his fifth game in a row under 2.2 yards per contact per attempt and hasn’t recorded a breakaway run over his last three games. Since Week 3, he’s averaged 13.3 touches and 59.8 total yards. His lack of explosiveness can be mitigated with a beautiful matchup on deck. He’s an RB3 with red zone usage and RB2 upside if he scores a touchdown.

Wide Receivers

Darius Slayton: Over the last two games, Slayton has a 71.4% route run rate with a 19.6% Target share (five targets per game) and 35.7% air yard share. He disappeared last week against the Ravens outside corners after a WR22 showing in Week 5. Since Week 5, Slayton has posted a solid 72.1 PFF receiving grade and 2.16 yards per route run, running about 68% of his routes on the perimeter. He’ll match up with Tyson Campbell (60.6% catch rate, 83.9 passer rating) and Tre Herndon (2021: 96.2% catch rate, 147.9 passer rating) for most of the day as an upside WR4.

Wan’Dale Robinson: In his first action since Week1, Robinson played 22.6% of the snaps drawing four targets which he turned into three receptions and 37 receiving yards (one score). He only ran 11 routes (34.4% route run rate). He split the slot role with Richie James. His usage may bump up this week, but until it does, I’m not starting him. It’s too risky to drop a player with a limited snap role into your flex. If he didn’t get into the end zone last week, this wouldn’t even be a conversation for Week 7.

Christian Kirk: Kirk has seen his production fall apart with Lawrence pigeonholed into a game manager role. He hasn’t recorded a game with a PFF receiving grade over 65.0 since Week 3. Over the last two games, he has only managed 0.23 and 0.86 yards per route run. He’s dipped to 36th in yards per route run playing from the slot on 73.3% of his snaps. After piling up seven red zone targets in Weeks 1-3, he has only one since Week 4. Overall he has a 22.6% Target share and 26.1% of the team’s air yards. He’ll match up with Julian Love (70.6% catch rate, 88.6 passer rating) and Dane Belton (45.5% catch rate, 68.8 passer rating) inside for most of the day as a low-end WR2.

Zay Jones: Zay Jones is a dicey WR5/6 this week. Over the last two weeks, he’s seen a 19.4% Target share (6.5 targets per game) which has only produced 32.5 receiving yards per game and 0.94 yards per route run. The Jaguars’ offensive attack plan has hurt Jones from a raw volume standpoint, but his production hasn’t been there either, with only two weeks as a WR3 or better. With Zay Jones running about 67% of his routes on the perimeter, he could draw shadow coverage from Adoree’ Jackson. Jackson has shadowed three times this season following Robert Woods, Robbie Anderson, and CeeDee Lamb on 65-91% of their routes, limiting them to eight targets and 57 total receiving yards (one score).

Marvin Jones: Jones has been listed as questionable. He’s the WR55 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 17.3% Target share (49th) but only managing 1.25 yards per route run. Jones has been held below 1.2 yards per route run in four of five games played this season. He’s been ineffective outside of the Week 5 blip on the radar. Now with him dinged up, I doubt he will be a more efficient wide receiver in Week 7. Jones is a sit.

Tight Ends

Daniel Bellinger: After playing a part-time role for much of the season, Bellinger saw his snap rate jump to 96.8% and his route run rate climb to 81.2%. He drew a 20% Target share with an end zone target and 1.46 yards per route run. Overall this season, he’s fourth in PFF receiving grade, 13th in yards per route run, and fourth in YAC per reception (minimum 15 targets). Jacksonville is 20th in DVOA and sixth in yards per reception allowed to tight ends. Bellinger is a TE1/high-end TE2.

Evan Engram: Engram has bumbled and stumbled his way to TE19 in fantasy points per game despite ranking 11th in Target share, 13th in route participation, 11th in routes run, and sixth in deep targets. The sad thing is that his athleticism doesn’t translate to being good as a tight end. He’s 26th in PFF receiving grade, 20th in yards per route run, and 18th in YAC per reception (minimum 15 targets). New York is a decent matchup for Engram to retain low-end TE1/TE2 status. The Giants have allowed the 11th-highest catch rate, fourth-most receptions, and fifth-most receiving yards to tight ends.

Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens

• BAL -6, O/U 46.5
• Browns vs. Ravens Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Another snooze-filled pace fest, with the Browns ranking 23rd in neutral pace and the Ravens, are matching their slo-mo movements (30th).
• Each team is known for its run-loving ways. They both rank inside the top 12 in neutral rushing rate (CLE fifth, BAL 12th).

Quarterbacks

Jacoby Brissett: Brissett is a basement-level QB2 this week. He’s seen his metrics decline to levels we would expect with a quarterback like Brissett. He’s 16th in PFF passing grade, 29th in yards per attempt, and 28th in adjusted completion rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). He’s the QB23 in fantasy points per game. Baltimore isn’t a cakewalk like many think. Since Week 4, they have allowed the eighth-fewest passing yards per game, the 14th-lowest explosive pass rate, and the seventh-fewest yards per attempt.

Lamar Jackson: Jackson has dominated the competition as the QB2 in fantasy points per game. He’s 17th in yards per attempt, sixth in big-time throw rate, and third in passing touchdowns. His rushing equity is a given, which adds to his ceiling and floor. The Browns are a struggling pass defense. They rank 27th in pass defense DVOA, with the eighth-highest EPA per dropback and yards per attempt allowed. Cleveland also sits at 21st in explosive pass rate. Jackson should shred this defense.

Running Backs

Week 1-6

Nick Chubb: Chubb has been fantastic this season, and if you have him, you’re starting him, but this is a bad matchup. He’s the RB3 in fantasy points game, averaging 19.5 touches and 116.7 total yards per game. Last week was the first game he hasn’t finished with at least 100 yards rushing or a touchdown. Chubb is seventh in yards after contact per attempt, first in missed tackles forced, 12th in breakaway run rate, and second in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 20 carries). The Ravens have been a brick wall this year against running backs. They are 18th in rush success rate, having surrendered the ninth-fewest rushing yards per game, the eighth-lowest explosive run rate, and the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to backs. Chubb remains an RB1 despite the grueling assignment.

Kareem Hunt: Hunt is the RB26 in fantasy points per game and an RB2/3 this week. He’s averaged 12.5 touches and 57.0 total yards. He remains a talented runner, ranking eighth in juke rate, ninth in evaded tackles, and 28th in yards created per touch. His pass-game usage has dried up with Brissett, though. He’s only seen an 8.6% Target share (27th) with two games over three targets. Hunt is due for touchdown regression. He’s only scored once since Week 1 despite seeing more red zone opportunities than Chubb. The uphill battle on the ground has been documented, but there’s an avenue for Hunt to walk away with a solid stat line through the air if Brissett looks his way. Baltimore is 15th in DVOA against running backs giving up the third-most receptions and sixth-most receiving yards.

J.K. Dobbins: Dobbins is out for the next 4-6 weeks (knee). He’s been placed on the IR.

Ravens RB Justice Hill (hamstring) was taken off injury report after full practices all week. With J.K. Dobbins out, Hill will team with Kenyan Drake in backfield vs. Browns. It’s TBD with Gus Edwards (PUP).

— Jamison Hensley (@jamisonhensley) October 21, 2022

Justice Hill: Hill will be back this week after practicing in full all week. Hill should split the work with Drake on the ground if Edwards remains out. Among running backs with 15 or more rushing attempts, he’s 11th in yards after contact per attempt, 31st in breakaway run rate, and 40th in PFF elusive rating. In Weeks 3-4, he averaged 41% of the snaps with a 28.2% route run rate. He saw eight touches per game, averaging 58.5 total yards. Cleveland is a fantastic rushing matchup allowing the 13th-highest rushing success rate. The Browns are 25th in rushing yards per game, 32nd in rush EPA, and 27th in explosive run rate. If you’re looking for a moonshot flex play, Hill is your guy. I won’t be surprised if he ends up with more work in Week 7 than Drake if this backfield is left to the two of them. Hill is an upside RB3 if it’s only him and Drake getting the work, but with Edwards now active they each fall into RB4 territory.

Kenyan Drake: Drake should split the work with Hill and Edwards. During the last two games that they both were healthy (Weeks 3 & 4), Hill played while Drake was inactive. Reading those tea leaves, I think Hill could lead the backfield this week, assuming Edwards is out. Over the last two weeks, Drake has averaged eight touches and 77 total yards. His Week 6 performance is falsely puffing up his efficiency and volume numbers. While he’s sixth in breakaway rate, his yards after contact per attempt (37th) and PFF elusive rating (69th) paint a much clearer picture of his skills at this point. In three of four games active, he’s recorded elusive ratings of 0 and yards after contact per attempt of less than 2.2. Drake is a viable flex play or RB3/4.

Gus Edwards: Edwards has been activated to return. We still have to ensure he’s active, but all signs point to yes. Edwards isn’t playable. We have no idea how to project his volume and the snaps played. Edwards could touch the ball a handful of times or get near double digits. This week, his inclusion into the equation just nuked volume projections for Hill and Drake.

Wide Receivers

Amari Cooper: Cooper is a WR2 with a nasty Week 7 matchup. Yes, the common narrative is that Baltimore is a bad pass defense, but that’s grossly inaccurate. Their outside corners have been playing quite well. Cooper is the WR18 in fantasy points per game while also ranking 25th in PFF receiving grade and 32nd in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). He’s garnered a 27.9% Target share (14th) and 32.4% air yard share (fifth-best) with eight red zone targets (11th). He’ll run about 77% of his routes against Marlon Humphrey (67.9% catch rate, 52.7 passer rating) and Marcus Peters (59.3% catch rate, 84.5 passer rating).

David Bell: Bell is coming off a season-high 58% snap rate and 66% route run rate. He’s only drawn a 4.1% Target share this year with 0.77 yards per route run. I know you’re wondering. Why is he including his name here? It’s because Bell will run about 81% of his routes from the slot, which IS the area you attack this secondary at. Brandon Stephens (52% catch rate, 95.3 passer rating) and Damarion Williams (76% catch rate, 141.0 passer rating) have shared slot coverage duties. Bell is a matchup-based flex prayer in deep leagues. Trust the process.

Rashod Bateman: Bateman has been listed as questionable (foot) after practicing in a limited capacity all week. In Weeks 1-3, Bateman saw an 18.8% Target share averaging 5.3 targets, 2.7 receptions, and 75.3 receiving yards. He played 64.2% of the snaps and saw a 74.7% route run rate. In Weeks 1-3 Bateman was 35th in PFF receiving grade and third in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Bateman will run about 85% of his routes against Williams and Emerson. He’s a WR3.

Devin Duvernay: Duvernay is the WR36 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 15.1% Target share and 19.0% air yard share overall. In Bateman’s absence, his Target share bumped to 20.7%, and his air yard share increased to 30%. In those last two games, he finished as the WR26 and WR78. He’s 26th in PFF receiving grade and 37th in yards per route run with eight deep targets (15th). He’ll run about 70% of his routes outside against Greedy Williams (last year: 58.1% catch rate, 71.7 passer rating) and Martin Emerson (59.4% catch rate, 86.8 passer rating). Duvernay is a WR4.

Tight Ends

David Njoku: Njoku is the TE7 this season, drawing a 17.8% Target share (tenth) and 22.7% target per route run rate (tenth). He’s also 12th in route participation and fourth in red zone targets (seven). Njoku ranks second in PFF receiving grade, fourth in yards per route run, and 11th in YAC per reception (minimum ten targets). His YAC skills will be needed against Baltimore, who has allowed the sixth-most YAC and the fourth-most missed tackles. The Ravens are 21st in DVOA, giving up the eighth-highest catch rate and third-most receiving touchdowns to tight ends. Njoku is a top-five tight end.

Mark Andrews: Andrews has been dominant. He’s the TE2 in fantasy points per game, ranking first in Target share (34.3%) and target per route run rate (32.0%). He’s second in PFF receiving grade, first in yards per route run, and second in deep and red zone targets. The Browns are 15th in DVOA against tight ends, holding them to the lowest catch rate but second-highest yards per reception. In Andrews’ last four games against Cleveland, he averaged 8.2 targets, 6.2 receptions, and 79 receiving yards with four touchdowns. Andrews is a top-two tight-end option.