The Primer: Week 7 Edition (2022 Fantasy Football)

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Notable players on bye this week:

QB: Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford

RB: Devin Singletary, Darrell Henderson, Dalvin Cook, Miles Sanders

WR: Stefon Diggs, Cooper Kupp, Gabe Davis, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith

TE: Tyler Higbee, Dallas Goedert

No big deal, right? That’s just 30% of the top-ten fantasy quarterback pool, three top-20 running backs, 25% of the top 24 wide receiver room, and two top-seven tight ends. And we thought last week’s round of byes was rough. This is fine…

Bye weeks are a part of life, like migraines and stress diarrhea. This, too, shall pass, but we have to grin and bear it for now. If you’re 2-4 or 3-3 and holding onto hope to salvage your fantasy season, don’t worry. The Primer is here to help. I’ll take some swings into the deeper recesses of flex territory every week to give you players to pick up at the last second or in a bye-week pinch.

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Atlanta Falcons vs. Cincinnati Bengals

• CIN -5.5, O/U 47.5
• Falcons vs. Bengals Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Bengals have scratched and clawed their way to the top of the hill. Cincinnati leads the NFL in neutral passing rate. They’re also tenth in neutral pace.
• Atlanta also leads the league in an offensive category. The Falcons are first in neutral rushing rate while moving at a snail’s pace (26th in neutral pace).

Quarterbacks

Marcus Mariota: Mariota has been discount Kyler Murray. Putrid passing stats saved by rushing upside. Mariota is the QB15 in fantasy points per game due to ranking seventh in rushing yards and second in rushing touchdowns among quarterbacks. When he takes to the air, he’s 23rd in PFF passing grade, 36th in adjusted completion rate, and ninth-worst in turnover-worthy play rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). Cincinnati has not been kind to quarterbacks. The Bengals have given up the third-lowest success rate per dropback, second-lowest passing touchdown rate, and fourth-lowest yards per attempt. Mariota is a mid-QB2 based on his legs.

Joe Burrow: The Falcon’s pass defense has surrendered the second-highest success rate per dropback and ranks 12th in yards per attempt and 14th in QBR. Atlanta’s struggles to get pressure on the quarterback (32nd in pressure rate) will loom large in Week 7. Burrow has been heating up. Since Week 4, he’s 13th in PFF passing grade, ninth in yards per attempt, and eighth in adjusted completion rate as the QB3 in fantasy. Start him confidently this week as a QB1.

Running Backs

Weeks 5-6

Tyler Allgeier: Since assuming the starting role, Allgeier has averaged 14 touches and 48 total yards. Despite a 67.3% route run rate, he’s earned nothing through the air. Allgeier’s value is early down dependent. Among 61 running backs with at least 20 carries, Allgeier is 26th in yards after contact per attempt and 39th in PFF’s elusive rating. The matchup on the ground is a good one for him this week to retain RB3 value. The Bengals’ run defense has fallen off the map since Week 4. Over the last three weeks, they have allowed 5.56 yards per carry collectively to Raheem Mostert, Kenyan Drake, J.K. Dobbins, Alvin Kamara, and Mark Ingram. Overall in this three-game span, they are 11th in yards per carry with the fifth-highest rushing success rate and eighth-highest rush EPA allowed. If Allgeier gets his usual 12-15 touches and gets in the end zone, he’ll likely end up as a low-end RB2 or high-end RB3.

Caleb Huntley: Huntley is a similar story to Allgeier. Over the last two games, Huntley has averaged 12 carries and 46.5 yards. The main difference between the two backs is Allgeier is running routes despite not drawing any targets. Huntley isn’t involved in the passing game, but his red zone usage has exceeded Allgeier’s. Huntley’s rushing efficiency is a watered-down of Allgeier’s, as he ranks 35th in yards after contact per attempt and 41st in PFF’s elusive rating in the same sample of backs. Allgeier is a low-end touchdown or bust flex.

Joe Mixon: Mixon is the RB16 in fantasy points per game, averaging 21.3 touches and 82.6 total yards. He’s been one of the most inefficient rushers thus far, and it hasn’t mattered because of his high-value touch usage. He’s tied with Fournette for the most high-value touches among running backs. He’s third in carries inside the five-yard line. This week’s matchup should help Mixon’s numbers. The Falcons have been unable to stop opposing rushing attacks. They are second in rush success rate and ninth in rush EPA. Atlanta also sits at 29th in adjusted line yards, and 22nd in second-level yards conceded. Mixon can also put his 14.2% Target share (11th) to good use against a defense that’s sixth in receptions and 10th in receiving yards surrendered to backs. Mixon is an RB1.

Wide Receivers

Drake London: London has been reduced to WR3 status (WR35 in fantasy points per game) by Atlanta’s run-first offensive approach. His metrics scream stud, but the limited volume (21st in targets) has neutered him. London is fourth in PFF receiving grade and 16th in yards per route run (minimum ten targets). He’s seen a 32.8% Target share (second-best) and 32.3% air yard share. He’ll run about 87% of his routes against Chidobe Awuzie (40.5% catch rate, 58.1 passer rating) and Eli Apple (64.3% catch rate, 85.9 passer rating).

Ja’Marr Chase: Chase reminded everyone last week that he’s still “THAT DUDE.” He’s quietly now the WR8 in fantasy points per game with continuing elite usage, ranking 12th in Target share, 16th in air yard share, and first in red zone targets. Chase is 19th in PFF receiving grade and 36th in yards per route run (minimum ten targets). The worry for Chase this week is absorbing shadow coverage from A.J. Terrell. Terrell hasn’t been great overall this season, but in shadow coverage, he has been magnificent. In three shadow matchups, he’s followed D.K. Metcalf, Amari Cooper, and Mike Evans on 76-82% of their routes, limiting them to nine total receptions and 136 receiving yards (zero Tds). Chase remains a WR1 that can overcome tough matchups.

Tee Higgins: Higgins gutted through injury last week to draw a 27.8% Target share, 27.9% air yard share, and an 88.4% route run rate. If his practice reports aren’t negative, he’ll remain a top-20 wide receiver who could get a bump if Chase gets shadowed. Higgins is 14th in PFF receiving grade and 21st in yards per route run (minimum ten targets). Higgins will run about 81% of his routes against Terrell (66.7% catch rate, 130.2 passer rating) and Casey Hayward (57.1% catch rate, 80.2 passer rating).

Tyler Boyd: Boyd remains a WR4. He’s the WR43 in fantasy points per game with three top 36 wideout weeks and three games outside the top 50 fantasy wide receivers. He’s only drawn a 12.9% Target share and two red zone targets this season. He’ll run about 82% of his routes inside against Isaiah Oliver (last year: 60% catch rate, 96.8 passer rating) and Richie Grant (60%, 44.6 passer rating).

Tight Ends

Kyle Pitts: Pitts returned to the lineup with a 21.4% Target share (three targets) and an 82.4% route run rate. The route rate matters more than the Target share if we’re looking for silver linings here. Like London, Pitts is hampered by Arthur Smith’s obsession with the run, but his metrics remain amazing. He’s third in Target share, second in target per route run rate and seventh in yards per route run. All of this efficiency hasn’t translated to fantasy production (TE23), but with his talent profile, if Smith doesn’t cut his routes, it’s only a matter of time. The Bengals have been a favorable matchup for tight ends, ranking fourth in receiving yards, 12th in catch rate, and fifth in receptions allowed. Pitts is a top-ten tight-end option with huge upside this week. He could walk away from Week 7 with a top-three tight end game.

Hayden Hurst: Hurst finds himself inside the top-12 tight ends this season (TE12) which is more of a statement of the position than a ringing endorsement for Hurst. Hurst does have three distinct feathers in his cap that we look for in tight ends with high route participation (76.0%, 10th), red-zone involvement (fifth in red-zone targets), and a plus matchup. Atlanta is second in receptions and third in receiving yards allowed to the position. Hurst is a TE1.

Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys

• DAL -7, O/U 48
• Lions vs. Cowboys Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• These two teams have been mirror images in close games. They have been middle-of-the-pack pace teams (DET 18th, DAL 16th) with run-heavy approaches in close games (DET ninth, DAL 10th).

Quarterbacks

Jared Goff: Goff might be the QB6 in fantasy points per game, but shootout game scripts and easy matchups, along with ranking fifth in passing touchdowns, have puffed up the perception of his skills. The real truth is that he’s 25th in PFF passing grade, 32nd in adjusted completion rate, and 22nd in time throw (minimum 50 dropbacks). Goff’s internal clock will need to speed up some against the Cowboys this week. Dallas is first in pressure rate while also allowing the fifth-lowest success rate and sixth-lowest EPA per dropback. They have held quarterbacks to the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game. While Goff is eighth in PFF passing grade and yards per attempt against pressure (minimum 25 pressured dropbacks), this is still an uphill battle for him. He’s a decent QB2 option that could find his way into the top 12 if this game also shoots out.

Dak Prescott: Prescott has been practicing in full all week and carries no injury designation into Week 7. He’s set to return after his five-game hiatus. It’s not worth diving into his only game played this season for context. Let’s discuss his matchup with Detroit. The Lions have been pitiful against the pass. They are allowing the third-highest success rate per dropback and explosive pass rate. Detroit is first in EPA per dropback and second in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. They blitz at the fifth-highest rate (16th pressure rate), which should benefit Prescott. Last year among quarterbacks with at least 25 blitzed dropbacks, Prescott was tenth in PFF passing grade, first in blitzed passing touchdowns, and sixth in big-time throw rate against the blitz. Prescott is a top-ten fantasy quarterback.

Running Backs

D’Andre Swift: Update: Swift is not expected to play. Monitor inactives. The Lions’ coaching staff has said that Swift is doing “a little more every day” and that they are taking it “one day at a time.” These don’t sound like statements of supreme confidence for a player coming off a bye that we hoped would be 100%. Swift has been limited all week in practice. After Week 1, Swift averaged 46% of snaps played with 8.5 touches and 66.5 total yards. He finished as the RB6 and the RB39 in those games. This quickly displays his volatility this week. Yes, Swift is a talented and efficient player who is first in yards per touch, first in yards created per touch, and first in breakaway run rate, but his volume is concerning, given the reports and previous usage when less than 100%. It’s difficult to consider him as anything more than a low-end RB2/high-end RB3 if he is active.

Jamaal Williams: In Weeks 3-5, Williams played 33-49% of the snaps averaging 19 touches and 90.7 total yards. He finished as the RB39, RB3, RB7, and RB52, so at least the Lions’ backs are consistent in their volatility. Williams is an RB3 this week that bumps up to low-end RB2 territory if Swift is out. Williams doesn’t have the jets that Swift does, ranking 47th in juke rate, 41st in evaded tackles, and 56th in yards created per touch. Besides possibly falling in the end zone twice, Williams’ ceiling is lower, considering the matchup and Williams’ skill set and usage. Dallas has the eighth-lowest rush success rate allowed, but they are also 18th in rushing yards per game and 24th in explosive run rate allowed.

Week 2-6

Ezekiel Elliott: Elliott continues to trudge along as the RB35 in fantasy points per game. Last week with his touchdown dive, Elliott logged only his second game inside the top 20 in weekly scoring. It was only his third time even finishing inside the top 30. Elliott has averaged 16.7 touches with an inefficient (but nice) 69.6 total yards. He’s up to 29th in yards after contact per attempt while still lagging at 40th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 20 carries). He’s outside the top 40 rushers in juke rate, yards per touch, breakaway runs (only one), and yards created per touch. Elliott is matchup and volume-based RB2 this week. If any defense can make him look like he has been bathed in the waters of the fountain of youth, it’s the Detroit Lions. They are giving up the fourth-highest rush success rate while ranking bottom-three in the NFL in rushing yards, EPA per rush, and explosive run rate allowed. Elliott is a lock for 15-20 touches and red zone work.

Tony Pollard: Pollard continues to outplay Elliott on a per-touch basis, and Dallas doesn’t seem to care. He has averaged 11.2 touches and outpaced Elliott with 69.8 total yards per game. Pollard is fifth in yards after contact per attempt, 18th in PFF’s elusive rating, and sixth in breakaway rate (minimum 20 carries). Pollard is the RB36 in fantasy points per game with more top 30 finishes (four) than his backfield mate. Pollard is an RB2/3 this week. His explosive ability against a cakewalk defense could lead to multiple long runs or big plays through the air. The Lions are also 23rd in DVOA against receiving backs. Pollard is seventh in yards per reception and 17th in yards per route run.

Wide Receivers

Amon-Ra St. Brown: The last time we saw St. Brown was limping his way to a 32% snap share with six targets and 18 receiving yards as he was gutting it out through an ankle injury. St. Brown carries no injury designation into Week 7 and should be 100%. In Weeks 1-3, St. Brown was the WR6 drawing a 28.3% Target share (ninth) and ripping off 2.3 yards per route run (14th, minimum ten targets). Despite the missed time, he’s still 20th in red zone targets. St. Brown will run about 66% of his routes inside against Jourdan Lewis (84% catch rate, 113.2 passer rating. His prowess against zone and with the ball in his hands will be needed. Dallas utilizes zone coverage on 71-74% of their snaps with their corners. St. Brown has seen 59% of his target volume against zone, ranking 15th in yards per route run against the coverage type (minimum five zone targets). He’s also 23rd in YAC per reception (minimum 20 targets), taking on a defense that is 12th in YAC allowed and 13th in missed tackles. Assuming health and a full-time role, St. Brown is a WR1.

BETTLE MATCHUP OF THE WEEK

Each week, we’ll pick a matchup of the week, presented by Bettle. For Week 7, Amon-Ra St. Brown is our Bettle Matchup of the Week.

D.J. Chark: Chark has been ruled out.

Josh Reynolds: We have to give credit where credit is due. Reynolds has been exceptional this season. He’s the WR25 in fantasy points per game with top 36 finishes (WR34, WR26, WR9, and WR19) in each of his last four games. He’s also 24th in PFF receiving grade and 23rd in yards per route run (minimum 20 targets). He’s been involved in the deep passing game (seven targets, 25th) and the red zone (nine targets, sixth). He’s seen 42.4% of his targets against man coverage with better PFF receiving grades and yards per route run against man, so this might not be the week to trust Reynolds as anything more than a WR3/4. He’ll run about 68% of his routes against Trevon Diggs (62.2% catch rate, 88.9 passer rating) and Anthony Brown (59.6% catch rate, 89.2 passer rating). Reynolds has been listed as questionable.

CeeDee Lamb: Lamb remains trucking along at WR19 in fantasy points per game. He’s seeing elite volume ranking first in Target share (33.3%) and fourth in target per route run rate (33.1%). Lamb is 28th in PFF receiving grade and 14th in yards per route run (minimum 20 targets). Detroit is one of the few teams in the NFL that is man coverage heavy (49-62% of corner snaps). Lamb has seen 36.4% of his target volume against man coverage, ranking 23rd in PFF receiving grade and 28th in yards per route run (minimum ten man targets). Lamb will run about 57% of his routes from the slot against Mike Hughes (78.3% catch rate, 125.7 passer rating). Detroit is also 30th in DVOA against deep passing. Lamb leads the team with eight deep targets. Lamb is a WR1.

Michael Gallup: Since his return Gallup’s route run rate has hovered in the 81.6-89.5% range, which is good to see. Last week he drew a season-high seven targets, even against Philly’s tough outside corner duo. Overall he’s handled a 19.0% Target share with a meh 1.19 yards per route run. His aDOT has been solid at 13.1. Last year Gallup was also strong against man coverage, ranking 25th in PFF receiving grade and 26th in yards per route run (minimum 20 man coverage targets). Gallup is an upside WR3/4 who will run about 85% of his routes against Jeffrey Okudah (70.4% catch rate, 99.2 passer rating) and A.J. Parker (career 59 targets, 72.9% catch rate, 109.9 passer rating). Especially if Prescott returns, this could be Gallup’s breakout game. Since Week 4, Gallup has led the team with two deep targets. Gallup is a strong WR3. 

Noah Brown: Since Gallup’s return, Brown has fallen in the pecking order with a 13.9% Target share and 16% air yard share. He’s finished as the WR42, WR107, and WR83 over that span. Brown, in performance of “Gallup’s role,” this season has seen 44.8% of his target volume against man coverage, ranking tenth in PFF receiving grade and sixth in yards per route run (minimum ten man targets). Brown is a strong flex this week who could surprise if Prescott is back. If Prescott sits, bump Brown down because the passing rate will likely also decline. Brown is a WR5/6. 

Tight Ends

T.J. Hockenson: Hockenson is the TE4 in fantasy points per game with a 19.0% Target share (eighth). He ranks eighth in PFF receiving grade and sixth in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Dallas is a tough defense for tight ends, but Hockenson should be a big part of Detroit’s attack plan. With their issues with YAC, Hockenson should be peppered as he’s third among tight ends in YAC per reception (minimum 15 targets). The caveat on top of Dallas’s prowess in defending tight ends is Hockenson’s struggle against zone. He is 21st out of 24 tight ends in yards per route run against zone and 22nd in PFF receiving grade (51.5% of his target volume). Dallas is eighth in DVOA against tight ends, limiting them to the lowest yards per reception and sixth-lowest receiving yardage. Hockenson is a TE1.

Dalton Schultz: Schultz was a late inactive last week. Over his final two games, he’s seen four total targets. Over that span, I’m tied with Schultz with receiving yards earned (zero). Schultz has practiced in full all week and carries no injury designation into this game. In Week 1, Schultz saw nine targets securing seven for 62 receiving yards as the TE6 for the week. I’m willing to toss out the remaining games this season that were played at less than 100% or with Cooper Rush. Last year Schultz saw a 16.4% Target share (13th) while ranking 13th in red zone targets and 11th in yards per route run. The matchup on paper for Schultz is nice. Detroit is 28th in DVOA against the tight ends ranking 12th in receiving yards and fifth in yards per reception. The concern is with how much man coverage the Lions run, Schultz might not be the focus of the Cowboys’ passing attack. Schultz saw 64.8% of his target volume against zone last season. Even with those concerns, Schultz is a low-end TE1.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans

• TEN -3, O/U 42.5
• Colts vs. Titans Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Colts have undergone an offensive transformation. They have shifted to a pass-happy offense that wants to move fast. Indianapolis is third in neutral pace and fourth in neutral passing rate.
• No surprises in Tennessee as the Titans are 32nd in neutral pace, and King Henry leads the charge as they are sixth in neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan: Ryan is a solid QB1 this week. Since Week 4, he’s second in passing attempts, first in passing yards, 15th in yards per attempt, and sixth in adjusted completion rate (minimum 50 dropbacks) as the QB8 in fantasy. This week he gets a cakewalk passing matchup. The Titans have conceded the second-most passing touchdowns, seventh-highest success rate per drop back, and the fifth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.

Ryan Tannehill: Since Week 4, the Colts have morphed from a pass funnel into a run funnel. Over the last three games, they are 13th in pass defense DVOA with the ninth-lowest EPA per dropback and 12th-lowest yards per attempt allowed. Tannehill remains a low-end QB2. You likely have better options to start at this point, even in Superflex leagues. Tannehill is the QB26 in fantasy points per game which unfortunately matches his disappointing metrics. He’s 17th in PFF passing grade and passing touchdowns while sitting at 22nd in big-time throw rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). Sit Tannehill if you can.

Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor: Taylor has practiced in full all week. Consider him to be back to 100%. Taylor has averaged 22.6 touches and 93 total yards this season as the RB20 in fantasy points per game. Taylor’s explosive efficiency last year hasn’t shown up consistently in 2022. He’s 28th in yards after contact per attempt, 39th in breakaway rate, and 21st in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 20 carries). He hasn’t rushed for over 100 yards or finished with over 100 total yards since Week 1. The last time he faced Tennessee, he only mustered 42 rushing yards on 20 carries. Taylor remains an RB1 this week based on projected workload and volume, but the matchup is tough. Tennessee has allowed the lowest rushing success rate in the NFL. They also have limited opponents to the fifth-fewest rushing yards and eighth-lowest rush EPA. The sliver of hope for Taylor is that his ability to break off long runs is renewed with the time off. For all their run defense prowess, the Titans are also 29th in open field yards and 22nd in explosive run rate allowed. If Taylor can reinvigorate memories of his 2021 season, he could surprise here.

Nyheim Hines: In Weeks 1-4 with Taylor, Hines averaged 6.3 touches and 31.3 total yards. He is a thin PPR flex play at best. With the bulk of Hines’ value coming through the passing game, don’t expect him to do much in Week 7. The Titans are first in DVOA against receiving backs, holding them to the third-lowest yards per reception and the fifth-fewest receiving yards.

Derrick Henry: Henry is a lock for 20 touches, having hit this volume mark in four of five games. Henry has averaged 22.8 touches and 105.8 total yards with an 11.4% Target share (36.8% route run rate). He’s eclipsed 30 receiving yards in each of his last three games. While Henry has been good as the RB7 in fantasy points per game, this isn’t the Big Dog of old. Henry is 19th in yards after contact per attempt and 34th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 20 carries). His yards after contact per attempt mark is his lowest since 2017, and his elusive rating is the second-lowest of his career. Since Week 4, the Colts have become an extreme run funnel with the third-highest rush success rate, rush EPA, fifth-highest rushing yards per game, and fourth-highest yards per carry allowed. Henry should again roll up 100 rushing yards and multiple scores in Week 7.

Wide Receivers

Michael Pittman: Pittman is the WR9 in fantasy points per game with a bounce-back game in his back pocket. He’s seen a 24.5% Target share and a 24.1% target per route run rate. The Titans are 32nd in DVOA against deep passing. Pittman has yet to see a deep target this season, but this is a fantastic spot to get a few. The worry with Pittman, although it’s small, is that Kristian Fulton shadows him. Fulton has shadowed twice over the last two seasons following Terry McLaurin and Brandin Cooks on 61-63% of their routes, limiting them to 3 total targets, one reception, and ten receiving yards (0 tds). A Fulton shadow could be a blessing in disguise, though, as he hasn’t been very good this season. If Pittman isn’t shadowed, he’ll run about 75% of his routes against Fulton (71.4% catch rate, 138.2 passer rating) and Terrance Mitchell (58.8% catch rate, 108.9 passer rating). Pittman is a top 20 wide receiver with WR1 upside.

Alec Pierce: Pierce played a season-high 65% of snaps last week. As good as Pierce has been, the Colts have been reluctant to make him a 90% route run wide receiver as he’s seen a 75% and 69.5% rate over the last two weeks. Pierce’s star is rising, though, as his snaps have crept up in three straight games. He’s finished with at least 61 receiving yards (16.4% Target share) or a touchdown in each of his last four games. He’s 28th in yards per route run, immediately behind DeVonta Smith (minimum 15 targets). He’ll run about 93% of his routes against Mitchell and Fulton. Pierce also leads the team in deep targets (five). Pierce is a WR3 with upside this week.

Parris Campbell: Campbell finally showed a heartbeat last week. He saw a 19.3% Target share (11 targets) with seven grabs, 57 receiving yards, and a score. Campbell’s full-season numbers are frightening, with a 10.7% Target share and 0.69 yards per route run, but this is another matchup for him to keep the production train rolling for at least another week. Campbell will run about 76% of his routes against Roger McCreary (75.9% catch rate, 116.2 passer rating). Campbell is a WR5 with low-end flex appeal.

Robert Woods: Woods is the WR58 in fantasy points per game with only one week inside the top 30 in weekly scoring. His 22.8% Target share has amounted to 5.6 targets per game which he’s produced 1.66 yards per route run (38th, minimum 20 targets). With Woods running about 65% of his routes on the perimeter, he could be shadowed by Stephon Gilmore. Gilmore has shadowed twice this year, following Brandin Cooks and Courtland Sutton on 57-83% of their routes, allowing a total of four receptions (11 targets) and 32 scoreless receiving yards. Gilmore remains a stud allowing a 61.1% catch rate and 71.8 passer rating in coverage. Woods is a WR5/6.

Tight Ends

Mo Alie-Cox: Alie-Cox is a matchup-based streaming candidate. Since Week 4, he has led the Indy tight end rotation with a 9.3% Target share, 33.7 receiving yards per game, and a 51.1% route run rate. The last time these two teams met, Alie-Cox crushed this defense, securing all six of his targets for 85 receiving yards and two scores. Tennessee is 31st in DVOA, sixth in receptions per game, and fourth in receiving yards allowed per game to tight ends.