Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles

• PHI -5, O/U 43.5
• Cowboys vs. Eagles Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• This is another game that sets up for a healthy amount of plays but will feature two teams determined to run the ball. Philadelphia is eighth in neutral pace, and Dallas is close behind them at 13th. Each of these teams ranks inside the top 12 in neutral rushing (PHI third, DAL 11th).

Quarterbacks

Cooper Rush: Rush looks in line to make his fifth start barring a miraculous recovery by Dak Prescott. In his four starts, for a large part, Rush has been a solid QB2, finishing as the QB20, QB23, and QB13 before falling off last week as the QB31. Rush is 22nd in PFF passing grade and 18th in yards per attempt (minimum 25 dropbacks). This is a matchup where you should consider benching him in Superflex or 2QB leagues. The Eagles have held quarterbacks to the ninth-lowest success rate per dropback and the sixth-lowest EPA per dropback. Philadelphia’s secondary has yielded the 11th-lowest passing touchdown rate and lowest yards per attempt in the NFL.

Dak Prescott: Rush has been expected to start. Prescott has been listed as questionable, but I would be surprised if he plays this week.

Jalen Hurts: Hurts is the QB3 in fantasy. Along with this rushing prowess (second in rushing yards, sixth in rushing touchdowns), he’s taken a step forward as a passer. He’s third in PFF passing grade, second in yards per attempt, and second in adjusted completion rate. The Cowboys’ secondary is a formidable test for Hurts. They are top seven in success rate per dropback, passing yards per game, EPA per drop back, and explosive pass rate allowed. The one area this defense has struggled against is YAC. They are 11th in YAC allowed and 15th in missed tackles. Hurts should look to get the ball out quickly against the highest pressure rate in the league and let his playmakers do the work. Hurts is 12th in big-time throw rate against pressure, but he’s also 24th in yards per attempt with pressure in his face. Hurts is a top-five option every week.

Running Backs

Weeks 3-5

Ezekiel Elliott: Elliott is an early down plodder. That’s it. Over the last three games, he averaged 19.7 touches and total 78 yards. He’s the RB42 in fantasy points per game that’s only managed two games inside the top 30 fantasy running backs. Among 66 running backs with at least 15 carries, he’s 50th in yards after contact per attempt and 55th in PFF’s elusive rating. Yuck. He’s recorded one breakaway run all season. Count it on one hand. ONE. His pass-game usage has evaporated, as he’s seen no more than two targets in any game. This matchup won’t be kind to him. Over the last four weeks, Philadelphia is top 12 in rushing yards per game, EPA per rush, and explosive run rate. Elliott is a touchdown-or-bust RB3.

Tony Pollard: It doesn’t matter how bad Elliott is and how explosive Pollard is. They won’t push him to the forefront. It’s ridiculous, but it’s true. Over the last three games, Pollard has averaged 41.6% of the snaps with ten touches and 66.4 total yards. Pollard is the RB36 in fantasy points per game with more top-30 finishes (three) than his counterpart. Pollard is an efficiency machine. He’s fourth in yards per touch, 19th in breakaway run rate, 18th in yards per route run, and second in yards after contact per attempt. Pollard is a dice-roll RB3 each week. If he breaks some big plays or scores, he has top-24 upside.

Weeks 1-5

Miles Sanders: Sanders is the RB13 in fantasy points per game. Remember when Sanders told the fantasy community not to draft him? Fun times. He’s averaged 19.4 touches and 91 total yards. He’s finished as RB37 or better in four of five games. He’s fourth in red zone touches and seventh in total touchdowns. He’s been above average in explosive metrics ranking 19th in breakaway runs, 19th in evaded tackles, and 16th in yards created. He faces a Cowboys’ run defense that’s given up the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game due to allowing only one touchdown. The rest of their metrics scream that you can run on this team. They are 15th in rushing yards per game, 23rd in rush EPA per play, and 26th in explosive run rate. The Eagles could lean on Sanders this week to protect Hurts.

Kenneth Gainwell: Gainwell hasn’t seen more than seven touches or played more than 31% of the snaps in any game. He’s only seen six red zone touches and finished outside the top 60 RBs in three of five games. He’s a stash only.

Wide Receivers

CeeDee Lamb: Lamb is a target vacuum. He’s the WR22 in fantasy on the strength of a 35% Target share (first) and 34.5% target per route run rate (seventh). While he’s 17th in deep targets (seven), he’s only seen two red zone targets. He’s 24th in yards per route run and could see his 54.5% slot rate bump up this week. Darius Slay (46.7% catch rate, 47.6 passer rating) and James Bradberry (45.2% catch rate, 29.9 passer rating) have been elite on the outside. Avonte Maddox is the easiest corner that Philly has to target. He’s allowed an 80% catch rate and 70.3 passer rating. Lamb is a WR1 that should get peppered this week.

Michael Gallup: Since his return to the lineup, Gallup has seen a 19% Target share which sounds better than it really is. With the Cowboys’ run-balanced offense with Rush, that has amounted to four targets per game. He has been a full-time player with an 85.4% route run rate. This isn’t the week to flex Gallup when he’ll run about 91% of his routes against Slay and Bradberry. Sit him this week.

Noah Brown: It’s a similar story with Brown. He’s handled the same Target share (19%) over the last two weeks (four targets per game). While Brown has only run about 51% of his routes on the perimeter, I think that number will go up this week as he and Gallup are sacrificed to the coverage gods Bradberry and Slay. I want no part of matchups against these corners. There are superior flex plays to find on the waiver wire over playing Brown.

A.J. Brown: Brown is the WR14 in fantasy points per game. He’s finished as the WR22 or higher in three of five games. He’s eighth in Target share (29.4%), third in air yard share (43.4%), and third in weighted opportunity among wide receivers (minimum ten targets). Brown will be integral if the Eagles are looking to exploit the Cowboys’ struggles after the catch. He’s 18th in YAC per reception and fifth in overall yards after the catch (minimum ten targets). He’ll run about 77% of his routes against Trevon Diggs (62.9% catch rate, 90.2 passer rating) and Anthony Brown (58.3% catch rate, 87.5 passer rating). Dallas is another zone-heavy defense (72.6-76% of their corner snaps). Brown is 17th in PFF receiving grade and 34th in yards per route run against zone (minimum five zone targets). Brown is a WR1/2.

DeVonta Smith: After a sleepy Week 1, the Slim Reaper has come on strong with WR25 games in three of his last four. He’s handled a 25.0% Target share (22nd) and 34.2% air yard share (19th). Smith is a zone coverage beater like no other. He’s seen 72.2% of his target volume against zone, ranking third in PFF, receiving grade behind only Justin Jefferson and Drake London (minimum five zone coverage targets). He’s also ninth in yards per route run against zone. Smith is a strong WR2. He’ll run about 78% of his routes against Brown and Diggs.

Tight Ends

Dalton Schultz: Schultz aggravated his sprained PCL in Week 5, but he was able to log limited practices all week before upgrading to full on Friday. In two full games with Rush at quarterback, Schultz has seen a 12.5% Target share (3.5 targets per game) and nine receiving yards. The Eagles are 11th in DVOA against tight ends, sitting at 20th in receiving yards with the 11th-lowest yards per reception allowed. Schultz is a low-floor TE2.

Dallas Goedert: Goedert is so underappreciated. He’s the TE6 in fantasy points per game and a metric behemoth. I love drooling over his stats weekly. He’s sixth in Target share, 12th in target per route run rate, and second in yards per route run. He’s an elite YAC producer. Elite. Among all wide receivers and tight ends with ten or more targets, he’s first in YAC per reception and first in YAC. He’s 18 yards after the catch better than Cooper Kupp. Yep. You read that correctly. Dallas has been tough on opposing tight ends ranking ninth in DVOA with the fourth-fewest receiving yards and lowest yards per reception allowed. Honestly. I could care less. They have faced Cameron Brate, Hayden Hurst, Logan Thomas, Daniel Bellinger, and Tyler Higbee. None of these tight ends are in Goedert’s talent area code. None of them. Goedert will crush again this week.

Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers

• LAC -6, O/U 46
• Broncos vs. Chargers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• While the Chargers continue to push the pace similarly to last season (ninth in neutral pace), they have dialed back the passing (20th neutral passing rate).
• The Broncos’ mediocrity extends to the pace and passing rate, as they are 23rd and 18th in these categories.

Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson: The cringe-worthy king of Mile High has been putrid this year. He’s finished as a top-12 fantasy quarterback once. He’s 29th in PFF passing grade and 28th in adjusted completion rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). He’s managed multiple passing touchdowns only once. Now, with all of that said, this is a plus matchup for Wilson. The Chargers’ secondary has floundered in the early going. They have allowed the 13th-highest pass success rate. Los Angeles is 27th in explosive pass rate, seventh in passing touchdown rate, and 13th in passer rating. As bad as Wilson has been, the Broncos’ passing offense is still 14th in explosive pass rate generated. Wilson is a gag-inducing QB2 that could finish inside the top 12 this week.

Justin Herbert: Herbert is the QB10 in fantasy points per game with top ten finishes in three of five games. He’s first in money throws, ninth in true completion rate, fifth in passing touchdowns, and 14th in yards per attempt. The matchup is a tough one against a Broncos’ secondary that’s second in pass defense DVOA and third-best in passing touchdown rate and yards per attempt allowed. Another week out from the rib injury, Herbert is the top 12 bet you make, even in bad matchups. Start him as a QB1.

Running Backs

Week 5

Melvin Gordon: In his first start since Javonte Williams‘ injury, Gordon played 56% of the snaps handling 18 touches and churning out 93 total yards in a brutal matchup against the Colts. Gordon’s numbers resemble those of a 29-year-old running back. He’s outside the top 35 running backs in juke rate, breakaway run rate, yards per touch, and evaded tackles. Luckily for him, this is an easier matchup. The Chargers are 24th in rushing yards per game and 28th in rush EPA per play. They have allowed the most fantasy points per game and the highest yards per carry to running backs. Gordon is a solid bet for 20 touches with all of the red zone work this week. Gordon has been listed as questionable with neck and rib issues. He’s an RB1/2.

Mike Boone: Boone has looked explosive when given opportunities. Last week he played 41% of the snaps, turning ten touches into 85 total yards. Among backs with at least ten carries, he’s 12th in yards after contact per attempt and 22nd in PFF’s elusive rating. Boone could be a sneaky play that receives 15 or more touches if the Broncos choose to pound the rock all day. He’s an RB3 with upside.

Austin Ekeler: The air guitar is back! It’s beautiful. Ekeler is the RB1 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 4, he has averaged 19.5 touches with an astounding 154 total yards. After worries about his work inside the 20 crept in during the first few weeks, Ekeler has handled 63.6% of the red zone carries since Week 4. He’s fifth in weighted opportunity, 16th in opportunity share, third in Target share (17.8%), and ninth in red zone touches. The explosive plays are back, as he’s seventh in yards per route run, fifth in breakaway run rate, and seventh in yards created per touch. Denver is 15th in rushing yards per game, 21st in explosive run rate, and 25th or lower in adjusted line yards, second-level yards, and open field yards. Ekeler is a top-three running back.

Wide Receivers

Courtland Sutton: Despite Wilson’s struggles, Sutton is still balling. He’s the WR15 in fantasy points per game. Sutton is top-ten in receptions, receiving yards, and red zone targets. He’s only scored one touchdown. He’d be even higher up the fantasy receiver ladder if not for that. Sutton is 23rd in yards per route run (minimum ten targets). He’s a dependable WR2 that will run about 87% of his routes against Asante Samuel Jr. (65.8% catch rate, 90.5 passer rating) and J.C. Jackson (75% catch rate, 149.0 passer rating).

Jerry Jeudy: While Sutton has been immune to his quarterback’s issues, Jeudy hasn’t. Jeudy is the WR48 in fantasy points per game. He’s finished as the WR51 or lower in three of five games. He’s seen a 17.7% Target share and 23.4% air yard share with a disappointing 1.69 yards per route run (53rd). Jeudy is a WR3/4 that will run about 72% of his routes against Bryce Callahan, arguably the Chargers’ best corner. Callahan has permitted a 57.9% catch rate and 62.3 passer rating in coverage.

Mike Williams: After a disappearing act in Week 1 and another ghost performance in Week 3, the fantasy community was ready to write off Williams as a bust. How the tides have turned. Williams now has three games with ten or more targets, at least seven receptions, and 113 receiving yards or higher. Overall he’s the WR13 in fantasy points per game sporting a 25.5% Target share and 46.9% air yard share without Keenan Allen on the field. Since Week 2, he’s 11th in PFF receiving grade and 22nd in yards per route run (minimum ten targets). He’ll run about 83% of his routes against Patrick Surtain (61.3% catch rate, 72.4 passer rating) and Damarri Mathis (80% catch rate, 103.1 passer rating). It’s possible Surtain shadows him. Surtain shadowed in Weeks 1 and 4 following D.K. Metcalf and Davante Adams on 72-76% of their routes, allowing 7.5 targets, 5.5 receptions, and 44.5 scoreless receiving yards per game. Williams is a low-end WR1 or high-end WR2.

Keenan Allen: Allen has been listed as questionable. He was limited in Friday’s practice. In Allen’s only game this season he drew an 11.4% Target share with 5.0 yards per route run. If active, he should hover in the 18-20% Target share range while running most of his routes from the slot against K’Waun Williams (81.3% catch rate, 95.3 passer rating). Allen is a risky WR3 if he suits up.

Joshua Palmer: Palmer was an off-season hype piece for many. He’s failed to live up to the billing to this point. He’s finished as the WR75 or lower in three of five games. He’s only drawn a 15.1% Target share, 14.2% air yard share, and four red zone targets. Palmer could be decent flex this week if Surtain follows Williams. This would mean more Mathis in coverage, a matchup Palmer can likely win. Palmer is a WR4/5.

Keenan Allen: Allen remains day to day. It doesn’t sound like he’ll be back this week.

Tight Ends

Gerald Everett: Everett is the TE9 in fantasy points per game. He has a 15.7% Target share (11th), 69.0% route participation (15th), and ranks eighth in routes run. He’s tenth among tight ends in red zone targets (four). Denver is a worrisome assignment for tight ends, ranking fifth in DVOA and 19th in receiving yards and yards per reception allowed. Everett is a low-end TE1.

Washington Commanders vs. Chicago Bears

• CHI -0.5, O/U 39.5
• Commanders vs. Bears Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• This game won’t be full-on molasses, but we should lower our volume expectations. Washington is 14th in neutral pace, but Chicago creeps in at 24th.
• While Chicago has remained run-centric with the league’s top neutral rushing rate, Washington has skewed more to the air and is now 11th in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Carson Wentz: The Bears’ pass defense started the year surpassing expectations, but they have since come back down to earth. Outside of keeping opposing passers out of the endzone (eighth-lowest passing touchdown rate), they have been a below-average unit. They have yielded the seventh-highest success rate and eighth-highest EPA per dropback. Wentz has outplayed anyone’s preconceived notions of his fantasy value entering this season as the QB8 in fantasy. His real-life play has been lackluster, as he’s 26th in PFF passing grade and 21st in adjusted completion rate (minimum 25 dropbacks). What has propelled Wentz to top-12 status is the fact that he is second in passing attempts (fourth in passing yards) and has connected on big plays (11th in big-time throw rate). If Washington can hold off Chicago’s pass rush (tenth in pressure rate), Wentz could be in for another big day. Chicago is 29th in DVOA against deep passing, while Wentz is second in deep pass attempts with the fifth-highest deep passing grade per PFF. Wentz is on the QB1/2 borderline this week.

Justin Fields: Over the last two games, Fields has shown growth. While he is still 25th in PFF passing grade, he’s also ranked 16th in adjusted completion rate and tenth in big-time throw rate. Still, with his limited passing volume, it’s difficult to trust him as anything more than a low-end QB2 despite a burnable secondary on deck. Washington has conceded the seventh-highest EPA per dropback, the highest passing touchdown rate, and the sixth-highest yards per attempt. The issue that could lead to Fields’ unraveling his Washington is also eighth in pressure rate and ninth in blitz rate. Fields could be under duress all day as the NFL’s second-most pressured quarterback.

Running Backs

Week 5

Brian Robinson: In his first game action of the season, Robinson led the team in carries (nine, 22 rushing yards) and played 29% of the snaps. He was a total zero in the passing game as the team worked him in slowly as the early down thumper and nothing more. He only managed 1.56 yards after contact per attempt with zero missed tackles forced. After a long layoff and a limited sample in his first game back, I’m willing to give these ugly numbers a pass. Last week’s matchup against Tennessee was rough for rushing, but that’s definitely not the case this week. Chicago’s run defense has been a laughing stock this year. They have yielded the tenth-highest rushing success rate, third-highest explosive run rate, and second-most rushing yards per game. They are eighth in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs. Robinson could flirt with 15 touches in this game, making him a solid RB3 with upside.

Antonio Gibson: Well, that didn’t take long. Robinson stole Gibson’s early down role in his first game back. Robinson also almost out-snapped Gibson, who handled 32% of the snaps with six touches and 39 total yards. I expect Robinson’s snaps and workload to climb further in his second game back, so Gibson is unplayable. He’s a stash-worthy play only.

J.D. McKissic: McKissic has been regulated to a passing-down option only with Robinson back. While McKissic remains among the best-receiving backs in the league, this game doesn’t set up like one where his services will be heavily needed. He’s seventh in Target share, fourth in receptions per game, seventh in receiving yards per game, and 20th in yards per route run among running backs (minimum five targets). Chicago is 13th in DVOA against passing down backs facing the sixth-fewest targets to the position. Opposing teams have had so much success running the ball they have had little need for their backs through the air. McKissic is a low-end flex play in PPR leagues only.

Week 5

David Montgomery: Last week Montgomery returned to the lineup, handling close to his customary workload as the Bears’ primary back. He played 72% of the snaps with 16 touches and 82 total yards. He did most of his damage against the Vikings in the receiving department, with 62 receiving yards. He also handled both red zone opportunities for this backfield in Week 5. Montgomery’s effectiveness might not be back to 100% as he logged his second-lowest yards after contact per attempt (2.08) and elusive rating (52.1) of the season out of his full games played. Montgomery is a volume-based low-end RB2/RB3 in a dreadful matchup. Washington has been a horrible defense for running backs to face this year. They have permitted the fourth-lowest rushing success rate and fifth-lowest rush EPA. Washington has also held backs to the ninth-lowest explosive run rate and rushing yards per game. Fantasy managers have to hope he can get it done in the passing game again this week. Washington is 18th in DVOA against receiving backs, and while they have faced the seventh-fewest targets to the position, they are tied for the most receiving touchdowns allowed.

Khalil Herbert: Herbert returns to high-end handcuff status. He only saw four touches last week (11 rushing yards) while playing 28% of the snaps with a route run rate that’s likely to fall further in Week 6.

Wide Receivers

Terry McLaurin: Washington has sadly rendered McLaurin to mid WR3 status. He’s the WR36 in fantasy points per game seeing a 15.9% Target share (60th, minimum ten targets) with a 28.7% air yard share. He’s only 44th in weighted opportunity (minimum ten targets). McLaurin will run about 80% of his routes against Kindle Vildor and Jaylon Johnson. Vildor has allowed a 59.1% catch rate and 81.3 passer rating. Johnson has only seen three targets in coverage this season (two games) allowing one to be secured and a 42.4 passer rating.

Curtis Samuel: Samuel has been a high-floor WR3 play this year with spike week potential in PPR formats. He’s seen seven or more targets in every game with only two weeks below 50 yards receiving. He’s the WR20 in fantasy points per game (PPR), handling a 21.7% Target share (31st, minimum ten targets). Wentz should lean on Samuel in a smash matchup this week. Samuel will run about 71% of his routes against Kyler Gordon, who continues to be a slot corner that teams pick on. Gordon has allowed an 80.6% catch rate and 131.1 passer rating. He has seen the third-most slot targets giving up the second-highest yards per snap (minimum 25 coverage snaps).

Jahan Dotson: Dotson has been ruled out for Week 6.

Darnell Mooney: Mooney’s 24.4% Target share and 44.2% air yard share look sexy on paper until you realize that has only resulted in 4.2 targets per game. Chicago’s low-volume passing offense has limited Mooney to WR4/5 status. He has shown some life over the last three weeks averaging 5.3 targets, 2.7 receptions, and 56.3 receiving yards per game. The limited volume and 1.42 yards per route run are too thin to count on weekly. He’ll run about 63% of his routes against Rachad Wildgoose, who has only seen four targets in coverage in his short career, allowing three receptions and a 95.8 passer rating.

Tight Ends

Logan Thomas: Thomas has been ruled out for Week 6.

Cole Kmet: Despite his 14% Target share and 84.5% route run rate, Kmet is only a desperate TE2 target. His Target share has only amounted to 2.4 targets per game. He’s been held below 20 receiving yards in three of five games. Washington is 15th in DVOA, facing the third-fewest tight end targets and yielding the sixth-fewest receiving yards.

*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, 4for4, SharpFootball Stats, Rbsdm.com, Football Outsiders, FTN, Rotoviz, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*