Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

• TB -8.5, O/U 42.5
• Buccaneers vs. Steelers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Over the last two games, the Buccaneers have morphed back into their 2021 selves, ranking third in neutral pace and passing rate. Even in positive game scripts, they are chucking the rock on 78.2% of their plays (third-highest).
• In Kenny Pickett‘s first NFL start, the Steelers moved at 32.8 seconds per snap while passing on 58.8% of their neutral script plays. Those marks would put Pittsburgh 32nd in pace and 15th in neutral passing rate overall this season.

Quarterbacks

Tom Brady: Brady has done Brady things over the last two games with his weapons healthier as the QB4 and QB7 in fantasy. The GOAT has shown no signs of slowing down as he’s seventh in PFF passing grade, 12th in big time-thow rate, and 12th in accuracy rating. He should light the Steel curtain on fire this week. Pittsburgh is 30th in passing yards per game, 26th in explosive pass rate, and seventh in fantasy points per game allowed. Brady is a top-five fantasy quarterback in Week 6.

Kenny Pickett: Pickett has played fairly well through a game and a half of NFL action. He’s 15th in PFF passing grade and eighth in adjusted completion rate despite his 6.9 yards per attempt and 0:4 passing touchdown to interception ratio (minimum 50 dropbacks). He’s being subjected to the pass-defense buzzsaw with Buffalo and now Tampa Bay. Last week he finished as the QB19 in fantasy and should be slotted somewhere in that vicinity this week. The Buccaneers are a pass-defending juggernaut. They have the second-lowest success rate and fifth-lowest EPA per dropback allowed. Pickett will be under duress against a Buccaneers’ front that is 11th in pressure rate and eighth in blitz rate.

Running Backs

Weeks 4-5

Leonard Fournette: Well, it seems every down Lenny is gone. Over the last two weeks, he’s averaged 61.5% of the snaps, but that doesn’t mean his volume is obliterated. Last week Fournette still racked up 24 touches and 139 total yards (two touchdowns). The Bucs are just spelling Fournette, some with White. When Fournette is on the field, he’s heavily involved. Since Week 4, he’s eighth among running backs (minimum five targets) in targets per route run (33%). Fournette’s high-value usage and pass game excellence (13th in yards per route run) gloss over the fact that his rushing metrics show he’s slowing down. His 2.47 yards after contact per attempt (56th) would be his lowest mark since 2018, while his 12.1% breakaway rate is the lowest of his career. He’s the RB7 in fantasy, with the sixth-highest Target share locked inside of one of the league’s best offenses. Fournette can grind out another RB1-worthy game against a defense that’s 25th in rushing yards per game, 26th in EPA per rush, and 12th in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs. The Steelers are 11th in targets faced to the running back position giving up the 12th-highest yards per reception.

RBs (with at least 15 carries) below 2.0 yards after contact / attempt:

Kenyan Drake
Joe Mixon ??
Chase Edmonds
Rachaad White ?

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) October 12, 2022

Rachaad White: White has been one of the best pass-catching backs in the NFL and one of the worst on early downs. Out of 66 RBs (with at least 15 carries), he’s ranked 66th in yards after contact per attempt and in PFF’s elusive rating. He’s forced one missed tackle. Through the air, he’s 12th in yards per route run (minimum ten targets). Over the last two weeks, he’s averaged eight touches and 49 total yards as the RB18 and RB41 in fantasy. He’s a touchdown or bust flex (RB3/4).

Weeks 4-5

Najee Harris: Harris has become an early down grinder as his pass game usage has dried up throughout the year. Over the last two weeks, Warren has been the passing down back, while Harris has handled early downs and the red zone. He’s averaged 16 touches and 55 total yards per game since Week 4. While Harris hasn’t been explosive (45th in breakaway rate), that was never a massive part of his game. He’s still breaking tackles at a decent clip, ranking 19th in juke rate and ninth in evaded tackles. His biggest issue despite the loss of passing downs (8.5% Target share, 29th) is running behind an offensive line that’s 28th in second-level yards and 32nd in open field yards. He’s an RB2/3 against a Buccaneers run defense that’s allowing the sixth-highest rushing success rate while also ranking 18th in rushing yards per game and fifth-best in explosive run rate. Buccaneers have given up the third-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs and are first in DVOA against backs in the passing game.

Jaylen Warren: Warren is a high-end stash only. He’s only recorded one game above RB53 in weekly fantasy scoring. If his usage continues to trend up, he’ll make it into flex play territory, but this isn’t the week to explore that in an extremely tough matchup.

Wide Receivers

James Pierre
Arthur Maulet
Josh Jackson

All looking about the CB meeting room in PIT pic.twitter.com/9PbLsMjdwu

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) October 14, 2022

Mike Evans: In his three full games played, Evans has finished as the WR16, WR2, and WR31. He’s surpassed 70 receiving yards in each of those games as the WR9 in fantasy points per game this season. Since Week 4 with Godwin back, Evans has handled a team-leading 16.7% Target share (8.5 targets per game), 32.1% air yard share, and 60% of the end zone targets. He’s tenth among wide receivers with eight deep targets. Against a secondary that gives up a ton of explosive plays, the downfield role is the one we should covet. The Steelers’ secondary room is decimated. Cameron Sutton, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Ahkello Witherspoon, and Levi Wallace have all been ruled out this week. Pittsburgh will be starting James Pierre (career: 64.7% catch rate, 110.8 passer rating) and Josh Jackson (career: 68.7% catch rate, 115.3 passer rating) on the outside while Arthur Maulet will keep his nickel duties. Evans will run about 71% of his routes against Pierre and Jackson. Evans is an elite WR1 play this week.

Chris Godwin: Godwin is now dealing with a hip injury on top of the knee injury he battled through last week. He’s not on the injury report which is interesting, but I think more telling about his status is that he was limited on Wednesday, DNP on Thursday, and practicing in full on Friday. Last week his route run rate dipped to 51.9%. He saw a 12% Target share securing all six of his targets for 61 yards with 2.26 yards per route run. Godwin is a risk. He could easily only see a 50% route run clip again in Week 6. If he’s not as efficient with his limited volume, he could massively disappoint. He’ll run about 76% of his routes against Maulet (71.4% catch rate, 111.0 passer rating) in the slot.

Russell Gage: Last week with Godwin banged up, Gage saw a 14% Target share (tied for the team lead) while running a route on 76.9% of snaps. Gage’s usage has been a mess all year with his injuries to deal with, plus Julio Jones and Godwin in and out of the lineup. In the two games Gage has played at least 70% of the snaps, he’s averaged 39.5 routes, 9.5 targets, seven receptions, and 53.5 receiving yards. He ran from the slot on 64% of his snaps in those two games. He’ll see Arthur Maulet on 50-60% of his routes. Gage could rotate from the outside to slot evenly this week. Gage is a WR4 with upside if Godwin is limited.

Julio Jones: Jones has been listed as doubtful (knee). Don’t play him even if he’s active.

Week 5

Diontae Johnson: In Pickett’s first start, Johnson remained the unquestioned number one receiver in this offense cornering the market on high-value usage. Johnson is 11th in Target share this season and 25th in air yard share among wideouts. He’s 42nd in PFF receiving grade but 65th in yards per route run (minimum ten targets). He’s a volume based WR3 that’ll run about 92% of his routes against Jamel Dean (44% catch rate, 44.6 passer rating) and Carlton Davis (59.5% catch rate, 102.6 passer rating).

George Pickens: Pickens has now stacked back-to-back top 24 wide receiver weeks (WR18, WR21). Since Week 3, he’s seen a 21.5% Target share averaging 74.7 receiving yards with a 50% end zone Target share (32.6% air yard share). Over the last three games, he’s 12th in PFF receiving grade and 20th in yards per route run (minimum ten targets). He’ll also run about 92% of his routes against Dean and Davis. He’s a low-end WR3.

Chase Claypool: Claypool is bench worthy until further notice. He hasn’t finished higher than WR43 in any game this season or surpassed 55 receiving yards. His minuscule 0.68 yards per route run from the slot (83%) is an eye sore. He’s moved to a match-up-based start only. This isn’t the week to worry about him because Antoine Winfield has been tough in slot coverage (59.1% catch rate, 72.9 passer rating).

Tight Ends

Pat Freiermuth: Freiermuth has been ruled out (concussion) for Week 6. No other PIT tight end is worth considering in fantasy.

Cameron Brate: Brate is a low-end TE2. In Weeks 1-4, he saw a 12.4% Target share with a 63.8% route run rate. He only conjured up one top-15 tight-end finish. The Steelers have been rough on opposing tight ends, ranking third in DVOA, allowing the tenth-lowest catch rate and 13th-fewest fantasy points per game.

Carolina Panthers vs. Los Angeles Rams

• LAR -10, O/U 41
• Panthers vs. Rams Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• As bad as they have been, Carolina still has a pace silver lining, ranking first in neutral pace. They have been run balanced, ranking 17th in neutral passing rate.
• The Rams have slowed to a crawl, ranking 27th in neutral pace. However, they are still throwing a ton because of their ineffective run game (fourth in neutral passing rate). They won’t stop passing once up either, as they are third in positive game script passing rate.

Quarterbacks

P.J. Walker: The Carolina offense has been broken this season. I doubt a career backup with two NFL starts under his belt will change that. Walker has finished as the QB20 and QB26 in those games. He averaged 212.5 passing yards (6.7 yards per attempt) with a 1:3 passing touchdown to interception ratio. Without offering anything with his legs, Walker is a must-sit. Even in 2QB or Superflex leagues, you can find better options (Skylar Thompson) or a positional player to plug in a pinch.

Matthew Stafford: Stafford is a mid/low-end QB2. Yes, I said it. That’s what he has been this season. He’s finished higher than QB23 only once this season. He’s 31st in PFF passing grade while ranking 20th in yards per attempt with the 11th-highest turnover-worthy play rate. The Panthers’ pass defense is no joke. They have allowed the eighth-lowest success rate per dropback and sixth-lowest yards per attempt while generating the 11th-highest pressure rate. Stafford is 11th in pressure rate, where he’s come apart at the seams. Against pressure, he’s 23rd in PFF passing grade, ranking 17th in yards per attempt and 14th in turnover-worthy play rate. Avoid starting him this week if you can.

Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey: McCaffrey faces uphill sledding again this week. He’s the RB5 in fantasy points per game, averaging 19.6 touches and 102.4 total yards per game. He’s first in opportunity share, second in weighted opportunities, and first in Target share (22.4%). While he’s possibly lost a small step in the explosiveness category, he’s still good enough to rank 20th in yards after contact per attempt and 21st in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 15 carries). He’s a volume-based bell cow RB1 every week. Los Angeles won’t make it easy for him, though. They are top-12 in rushing yards per game (11th), explosive rush rate allowed (fourth), rushing success rate (fifth), and DVOA against pass-catching backs (third).

Weeks 2-5

Cam Akers: UPDATE: Rams HC Sean McVay announced on Friday afternoon that Akers would not be at practice or play on Sunday against the Carolina Panthers. 

Sean McVay said Cam Akers will not be at practice today or play on Sunday. He said the team is "working through" some things with Akers.

— Sarah Barshop (@sarahbarshop) October 14, 2022

Darrell Henderson: With Akers out, Henderson will assume the full-time role. When Henderson has played at least 79% of the snaps or higher in his career, he’s averaged 19.1 touches and 86.6 total yards. Henderson has not been elusive this season on the ground or through the air. Among 67 running backs with at least 15 rushing attempts, he’s 60th in yards after contact per attempt and 65th in PFF’s elusive rating. Among 41 running backs with at least ten targets, Henderson is 39th in yards per route run and 33rd in PFF receiving grade. Carolina is 16th in rushing success rate, 27th in rushing yards per game, and 23rd in explosive run rate allowed. While Carolina is 22nd in DVOA, giving up the 14th-most receiving yards and ninth-highest yards per reception to running backs, it’s questionable at best if Henderson can take advantage. Henderson is best viewed as a volume-based low-end RB2/high-end RB3.

Wide Receivers

D.J. Moore: Poor D.J. Moore. This franchise lacks a compass. A plan. Direction. Sadly, his talent is being wasted like this. I refuse to believe that a wide receiver that was tenth in total route wins last year and tenth in target separation against man this year is total dust. Outside of Moore throwing the ball to himself, there’s nothing he can do currently. He’s suffered through a 59.5% catchable target rate (85th), which has led to him ranking 54th in PFF receiving grade and 82nd in yards per route run (minimum ten targets). This is despite him sitting at 24th in Target share and 16th in air yard share. He’s finished as a top-40 fantasy wideout three times this season (WR30, WR29, WR39). I never thought I’d say this, but until Sam Darnold returns, Moore is a low-end WR3/4.

Robby Anderson: Anderson hasn’t been worth a roster spot this season. Outside of his fluke Week 1 game, Anderson has been the WR81, WR97, WR64, and WR81. He’s seen a 17.8% Target share but produced 0.76 yards per route run since Week 2 with it. Don’t play Anderson.

Cooper Kupp: Kupp is a top-five wide receiver weekly. Yes, Stafford has been terrible. Has it mattered to Kupp in fantasy land? No. He’s been the WR2, WR5, WR22, WR3, and WR5 in weekly scoring. He’s second in Target share, second in receiving yards, and first in total touchdowns as the WR1 in fantasy. Matchups don’t matter for Kupp. He’s been listed as questionable this week after he popped up with a foot injury. If he plays, you start him.

Allen Robinson: Robinson has surpassed 25 receiving yards once this season. Once. He’s drawn a 12.1% Target share (WOOF), turning it into 0.60 yards per route run. Robinson has finished as the WR77 or lower in four of five games. The picture doesn’t look any better in Week 6, running about 68% of his routes against Jaycee Horn (38.9% catch rate, 23.8 passer rating) and Donte Jackson (66.7% catch rate, 87.6 passer rating). Robinson is a must-sit.

Tight Ends

Tyler Higbee: Captain’s log. “The year is 2022. I’ve arrived in this strange land where Tyler Higbee is tied with Mark Andrews for the most targets for a tight end.” Yes, it’s true. Higbee has been eye-opening this year. He’s the TE7 in fantasy, ranking ninth in yards per route run (second-highest of his career) and fourth in receiving yards. Higbee is a top-three tight end this week against a Panthers defense that’s 24th in DVOA with the second-highest catch rate and ninth-most receiving touchdowns (tied) allowed to tight ends. Higbee has been listed as questionable (ankle), but he’s expected to play after back-to-back limited practices to close out the week.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks

• ARI -3, O/U 51.5
• Cardinals vs. Seahawks Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Despite being an ineffective offense to this point in the season, Arizona has operated in a way that’s still appealing for fantasy. They are second in neutral pace and 13th in passing rate in the same environment.
• Seattle has been an explosive offense operating as a balanced unit, ranking 20th in neutral pace and 16th in passing rate in close games.

Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray: Murray is the QB5 in fantasy, finishing as a top-12 quarterback in four of five games despite playing poorly in real life. He’s 21st in PFF passing grade with the seventh-lowest big-time throw rate. The pluses for Murray are that he’s 11th in adjusted completion rate and first in pass attempts, so accuracy and volume have been on his side. He’s also started to run more, as his rushing yards have increased in each of the last three games. Murray is a top-five fantasy option this week with breakout potential. Seattle has been generous to quarterbacks ranking fifth in success rate and first in EPA per dropback. They are allowing a ton of production through the air sitting at 24th in passing yards and explosive pass rate.

Geno Smith: Chef Geno heads back to the friendly culinary confines of the Northwest. Smith has the kitchen smelling good over the last three weeks as the QB7, QB2, and QB4 in fantasy. He’s first in PFF passing grade, third in yards per attempt (tied with Josh Allen), and first in big-time throw rate. He’s passed for at least 300 yards completing at least 72% of his passes in two of his last three games. Smith is about to stick the Cardinals in the oven and set it to broil. Arizona is first in success rate per dropback, fifth in EPA per dropback, 21st in passing yards per game, and 31st in explosive pass rate allowed. This is bad news against a Seattle passing attack that leads the NFL in explosive passes. Smith has top-three upside this week.

Running Backs

James Conner: Conner has been ruled out.

Darrel Williams: Williams has been ruled out (knee) this week.

Eno Benjamin: Eno SZN. Benjamin will be the lead back with Conner and Williams out. He’s in a smash spot as a top 15-20 running back play this week. He handled 30.8% of the rushing attempts last week with a 10.5% Target share (59.5% route run rate). He played 54% of the snaps with 11 touches that he turned into 53 total yards. When Benjamin has gotten opportunities, he’s produced. He’s tenth in yards created per touch, 13th in juke rate, 21st in breakaway run rate, and 16th in yards per route run. Seattle is 16th in rush success rate, 32nd in rushing yards per game, and 18th in explosive run rate. They have been even worse against receiving backs ranking 26th in DVOA, allowing the third-most receiving yards and sixth-highest yards per reception. Benjamin has top 12 upside this week.

Ken Walker III: Walker is a top-15 running back this week. Arizona’s run defense has faltered when tested extensively. The Cardinals are ninth in rush success rate allowed and 26th in explosive run rate allowed. They are tied with the Eagles for the fewest rushing attempts defended this season, but they are 22nd in adjusted line yards and 29th in second-level yards allowed. The Chiefs running backs rolled up 5.4 yards per carry against them. Cam Akers, of all people, rattled off 5.0 yards per carry. Behind Seattle’s offensive line that’s ninth in second-level yards, and first in open field yards, Walker could explode in his first week as the starter. He’s been amazing on limited volume this season. He’s 11th in PFF’s elusive rating (immediately behind Rhamondre Stevenson), eighth in juke rate, second in yards created per touch, and tenth in breakaway run rate.

Wide Receivers

Marquise Brown: Brown has been everything the Cardinals could have hoped for when they traded for him. He’s the WR7 in fantasy points per game, commanding a 26.6% Target share (18th) and 36.3% air yard share (15th). He’s second in targets, fourth in receptions and sixth in receiving yards. He’s 15th in PFF receiving grade and 38th in yards per route run (minimum ten targets). While he’ll run about 76% of his routes on the perimeter against Tariq Woolen (55.0% catch rate, 40.2 passer rating) and Michael Jackson (57.9% catch rate, 93.5 passer rating), he’s 16th in slot targets (30.8% of his target volume). He’s excelled there, ranking 12th in slot yards per route run (minimum ten slot targets). This means plenty of targets against the weak link in the Seattle secondary, Coby Bryant (68.8% catch rate, 148.2 passer rating). Brown is a WR1 in a potential shootout.

Rondale Moore: With A.J. Green back in the lineup, Moore returned to his customary role in the slot (82.9%) last week. He put up a very Greg Dortch-esque stat line with eight targets (21.1% Target share), seven receptions, and 68 receiving yards (1.66 yards per route run). Moore is 15th among wide receivers in YAC per reception (minimum ten targets) which will serve him well this week. Seattle has allowed the fourth-most YAC. Moore is a WR3 this week that could finish much higher if this game shoots out. He’ll run nearly all of his routes against Bryant.

A.J. Green: Green will be sacrificed on the outside to Woolen and Jackson this week. He’s failed to top 25 receiving yards in any game this year. His 10.2% Target share and 0.40 yards per route run shouldn’t be on your rosters.

Tyler Lockett: Lockett might be 30 years old, but he has shown no signs of slowing down. He’s the WR12 in fantasy with a 26.1% Target share (19th) and 38.3% air yard share (ninth). Over the last three games, the Cardinals have converted into a zone-heavy defense (63% of their coverage snaps). Do you know what that means? LOCKETT SMASH WEEK 2.0. Lockett is Seattle’s go-to weapon against zone, with 66.7% of his target volume coming against the coverage type. Lockett is fifth in the NFL in receiving yards against zone, fourth in PFF receiving grade, and fourth in yards per route run (minimum five zone coverage targets). Lockett will run most of his routes against Byron Murphy (60.6% catch rate, 94.8 passer rating). Lockett is a high-end WR2 with WR1 upside.

D.K. Metcalf: Metcalf hasn’t been chopped liver this year either as the WR24 in fantasy points per game. He’s finished as a top-20 fantasy wideout in each of the last three games (WR18, WR7, WR13). He’s 12th in Target share, 11th in air yard share, and 24th in yards per route run. Metcalf has seen 41.9% of his target volume against zone with only 1.50 yards per route run (Lockett, 3.28). Metcalf will run most of his routes against Marco Wilson (59.4% catch rate, 82.4 passer rating). Metcalf is a WR2.

Tight Ends

Zach Ertz: Ertz is the TE5 in fantasy points per game with a 19.8% Target share (fifth) and 20.2% air yard share (fourth). He’s garnered the second-most red zone targets at the position. He’s 22nd in yards per route run and 14th in PFF receiving grade (minimum ten targets). Ertz is another must-start player this week from this game. Seattle is 32nd in DVOA against tight ends allowing the second-most receiving yards. The Seahawks have given up the highest yards per reception and most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Weeks 1-5

Noah Fant: Both of these Seattle tight ends are streamer worthy this week. The matchup is that good. These two have split the receiving role weekly and shared the field on many plays. SEA has utilized 12 personnel at the fourth-highest rate, which means both of these players will see plenty of snaps. Arizona is 30th in DVOA against tight ends allowing the fifth-highest catch rate, seventh-best yards per reception, and second-most fantasy points per game.

Will Dissly: If Fant and Dissly are both on the waiver wire and you’re flipping a coin on which to stream this week, I lean in Dissly’s favor. Dissly has been slightly more efficient with his target volume besting Fant in yards per route run (1.78 vs. 1.18) and YAC per reception (4.8 vs. 3.1). Overall Dissly is 12th in PFF receiving grade, sixth in yards per route run, and 20th in YAC per reception (minimum ten targets). Stream Dissly if you need a tight end this week.

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs

• BUF -2, O/U 53.5
• Bills vs. Chiefs Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The pace of this game won’t wow anyone as Buffalo is 18th in neutral pace, with Kansas City close behind (21st).
• While the play volume won’t blow the roof off, we should still see plenty of passing attempts as Buffalo leads the league in neutral passing rate, and Kansas City is sixth.

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen: In his last two meetings with the Chiefs, Allen has averaged 322 passing yards, 3.5 passing touchdowns, and 37.2 fantasy points. Just let those number simmer for a bit. Now, understand that Allen is the QB1 in fantasy, averaging a ridiculous 30.1 fantasy points per game. Allen is fifth in PFF passing grade, first in passing yards, second in passing touchdowns and seventh in adjusted completion rate (minimum 25 dropbacks). The Chiefs are allowing the 12th-highest success rate per dropback while also ranking 25th in passing yards per game and fifth-worst in passing touchdown rate. Allen is the overall QB1.

Patrick Mahomes: I could quote Mahomes’ recent performances against the Bills, but let’s be real. Without Tyreek Hill, this is a different ball game. Mahomes remains a must-start, as he’ll still do ridiculous Mahomes-type things and finish with a monster stat line. With his new supporting cast, he’s second in PFF passing grade, fourth in passing yards, first in passing touchdowns, and ninth in big-time throw rate. Buffalo is near the top in every defensive metric you can find, but they’re also 16th in pass success rate per dropback. Buffalo is a zone-heavy defense (62.3-63.7% of their corners’ coverage snaps). Mahomes is fourth in EPA per play against zone defense.

Running Backs

Weeks 3-5

Devin Singletary: Over the last three games, Singletary has averaged 71.6% of snaps played with 13.4 touches and 77.7 total yards. He’s finished as the RB4, RB23, and RB51 in fantasy. Kansas City has been tough to run against, allowing the third-fewest rushing yards and the second-lowest explosive run rate. They are 13th in adjusted line yards and second-level yards and ninth in open field yards. Singletary’s value in the game and his upside come from his 14.3% Target share and pass game role. Among running backs, he’s sixth in receptions and receiving yards (23rd in yards per route run). Kansas City is 25th in DVOA against receiving backs allowing the most receptions and receiving yards in the NFL. Singletary is an RB2/3 with a bump in PPR formats.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire: Edwards-Helaire is RB9 in fantasy, whose usage has been variable week to week but relied upon efficiency and red zone usage. He’s 15th in red zone touches. He’s played anywhere from 39-56% of snaps averaging 13.2 touches and 72 total yards. He’s ninth in yards per route run, 17th in yards per touch, 12th in breakaway runs, and 21st in yards created. The Bills could limit his efficiency this week. Buffalo has held the opposition to the ninth-lowest rushing success rate, 14th-lowest rushing yards per game, and 12th-lowest explosive run rate. Against receiving backs, they are 15th in DVOA but have limited them to the fourth-lowest yards per reception. Edwards-Helaire is an RB2/3.

Jerick McKinnon: McKinnon is coming off a season-high 53% of the snaps with ten touches and 72 total yards. If the Chiefs are looking for explosive plays, he could be the skeleton key in this game. Edwards-Helaire has been a playmaker, but McKinnon has arguably been more efficient outside of the passing game (38th in yards per route run). McKinnon is fourth in yards created per touch, 12th in breakaway run rate, and ninth in juke rate. McKinnon is a deep league or low-end flex.

Wide Receivers

Stefon Diggs: Diggs is a stud and top-flight WR1. He’s the WR2 in fantasy points per game, rocking a 26.7% Target share (17th) and 32.5% air yard share (23rd). He’s top-five in receptions, receiving yards, yards after the catch, and touchdowns. He’s off to a scorching start with PFF’s third-highest receiving grade and ranking fifth in yards per route run (minimum ten targets). He’ll run about 64% of his routes against Joshua Williams (three career targets defended) and Jaylen Watson (54.5% catch rate, 76.3 passer rating).

Gabe Davis: Davis is back to full health just in time for this shootout. In arguably his two healthiest games of the season, he’s averaged 129.5 receiving yards as the WR14 and WR1 in fantasy scoring from those weeks. In those games, he’s seen a 16.4% Target share with a 36.2% air yard share (3.65 yards per route run). In his other two games played where he was limping around, he drew a 10% Target share with a 16% air-yard share (0.45 yards per route run). Davis is a strong WR2 that will run about 90% of his routes against Williams and Watson.

Isaiah McKenzie: McKenzie has been cleared of the concussion that sidelined him last week. In the two games prior, he saw a 56.8% route run rate with a 16.7% Target share and 15.8% air yard share as the WR10 and WR29 in weekly scoring. He’s seen five red zone targets (22nd) in limited duty. Khalil Shakir played well in his absence last week. McKenzie may split routes with Shakir, but he could also garner the full-time slot role this week. He’s a WR3/4 that’ll run about 76% of his routes against L’Jarius Sneed (77.4% catch rate, 117.0 passer rating) in the slot.

JuJu Smith-Schuster: Smith-Schuster should be heavily involved against the Bills’ zone defense. He’s seen 50% of his target volume against zone. While the production hasn’t been there, he’s handled a 19.3% Target share with eight targets in four of five games. He’s 11th in red zone targets (seven) but has yet to spike one in the end zone. He’ll run about half of his routes from the slot against Taron Johnson (72.4% catch rate, 86.7 passer rating). Smith-Schuster is a low-end WR3.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Valdes-Scantling has seen a 17.1% Target share with 24.6% of the team’s air yards. He’s coming off his best game of the season, securing six of his eight targets for 90 receiving yards (WR20). Valdes-Scantling leads the Chiefs’ wide receivers in yards per route run (1.66) and passer rating (115.2) against zone. If Smith-Schuster isn’t the one Mahomes leans on outside Kelce, it’ll be Valdes-Scantling. Valdes-Scantling will line up against Kaiir Elam (73.9% catch rate, 77.4 passer rating) and Dane Jackson (65.0% catch rate, 59.8 passer rating) on nearly 57% of his routes.

Mecole Hardman: Hardman isn’t a full-time player. Smith-Schuster and Valdes-Scantling are the only KC wide receivers with 79% or higher route run rates. Don’t play Hardman against this secondary.

Tight Ends

Dawson Knox: Knox missed last game with foot and hamstring issues. He’s been listed as questionable after limited practices all week. Knox has been uninspiring this year. He’s only drawn an 11.0% Target share with a 67.6% route participation (18th). In four games played he has zero deep targets, two red zone targets, and a sickening 0.97 yards per route run (34th). The Chiefs have been shutting tight ends down this year. They rank 10th in DVOA, 18th in receiving yards, and have the ninth-lowest yards per reception allowed. Knox is a TE2.

Travis Kelce: Kelce is an unstoppable force. He’s the TE1 in fantasy with a 23.2% Target share (fourth) and 21.3% air yard share (third). Against all tight ends and wide receivers with at least five zone targets, he’s sixth in PFF receiving grade and 17th in yards per route run. He leads the NFL in red zone targets and targets inside the ten.