The Primer: Week 6 Edition (2022 Fantasy Football)

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts

• IND -1.5, O/U 42
• Jaguars vs. Colts Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• This game will surprise people. Shock people. From a pace and passing rate angle. Jacksonville has been rolling along at third in neutral pace, but Indy is the sneaky team here. They are tenth in neutral pace. This game could easily hold the highest play volume of the week.
• The Colts, of all teams, find themselves at seventh in neutral passing rate, with the Jaguars falling in the top 10 (tenth).

Quarterbacks

Trevor Lawrence: Lawrence is a low-end QB1/high-end QB2 this week. When he met this defense in Week 2, he finished the week as the QB12 completing 83.3% of his passes with 7.8 yards per attempt. Both the completion rate and yards per attempt were his highest of the season. Indy has slipped in pass defense, giving up the sixth-highest success rate per dropback. They’re now 27th in DVOA against short passing, 13th in passing touchdown rate, and sixth in YAC allowed. Lawrence should excel against the Colts’ zone-heavy defense (64-75% of corner coverage snaps). Lawrence is 12th in accuracy rating against zone coverage.

Matt Ryan: Ryan has struggled so far this season as the QB28 in fantasy. Unfortunately for Ryan, this doesn’t look like the opponent that’ll get him back on track. Jacksonville has the fourth-best mark in success rate and third-best in EPA per dropback. They are ninth in pressure rate deploying zone coverage on 54-58% of their snaps. Ryan overall is 35th in PFF passing grade and 20th in yards per attempt (minimum 25 dropbacks). Against zone and pressure, the results have been disastrous. Ryan is 30th in EPA per play against zone coverage. With pressure in his face, he’s 28th in PFF passing grade with the second-highest turnover-worthy play rate. Ryan is a must-sit this week as a basement-level QB2.

Running Backs

Weeks 4-5

Travis Etienne: Last week Etienne continued his takeover of this backfield. His snap share increased for the fourth consecutive week. He’s now out-snapped Robinson in back-to-back weeks. Over the last four weeks, he has averaged 12.3 touches and 68.5 total yards. He’s finished as a top-30 running back in three of his last four games (RB30, RB28, RB56, RB22). Since Week 3, Etienne is 26th in yards after contact per attempt, 18th in breakaway rate, and 22nd in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 15 carries). His 9.2% Target share (15th in yards per route run) will come in handy this week. The Colts are a putrid matchup for backs in the rushing department, ranking top-seven in rushing success rate (seventh), explosive run rate (second), and every adjusted line yard metric I value. Indy has, however, played poorly against running backs in the passing game. They are 23rd in DVOA with the seventh-most receptions, fourth-most receiving yards, and seventh-highest yards per reception. Etienne is an RB3 with RB2 upside.

James Robinson: Robinson’s slide continues as his snap share has dropped from 61.8% to 43.1% over the last four games. He’s finished outside the top 48 running backs (RB58, RB50) in back-to-back weeks. His efficiency continues to crater as his yards after contact per attempt has fallen every game since Week 2. He hasn’t recorded a run of 10-plus yards since Week 3. The only role that Robinson still holds over Etienne is the red zone work. Since Week 3, he’s averaged 13.4 touches and 61.3 total yards. With a bad rushing matchup upcoming and a declining pass game role, Robinson is a touchdown-or-bust RB3.

Jonathan Taylor: Taylor has been ruled out for Week 6.

Nyheim Hines: Hines has been ruled out for Week 6.

Deon Jackson: Last week, Jackson handled a 58% snap rate with 17 touches and 91 total yards. He split the early down work with Lindsay and logged a 53% route run rate. Among all rushers with at least 15 attempts, he’s 32nd in PFF elusive rating. The Jaguars have given up the eighth-lowest rush success rate, sixth-lowest rushing yards, and 14th-lowest explosive run rate. Jacksonville is fifth in DVOA and 15th in yards per reception given up to running backs. They have permitted the third-most receptions but held running backs to zero, receiving touchdowns. Jackson is a high-end RB3 with low-end RB2 upside.

Phillip Lindsay: Last week, Lindsay had 14 touches, turning them into 54 total yards. He only managed one missed tackle forced and finished with a meager 19.5 PFF elusive rating. With most of his contributions likely coming on early downs (23.4% route run rate), Lindsay is a touchdown-dependent RB3/4 in a tough rushing matchup.

Wide Receivers

Christian Kirk: In Week 2 against the Colts, Kirk secured all six of his targets with 78 receiving yards and two scores. Kirk has finished as the WR46 and WR93 over the last two weeks. He’s seen a 23.5% Target share (29th) and 26.7% target per route run rate (23rd) while excelling against zone coverage. He’s 17th in yards per route run and 23rd in PFF receiving grade against zone (minimum five targets). With Marvin Jones out, Kirk will likely move outside more like he did in Week 4 when Zay Jones was out of the lineup. In Week 4, Kirk ran 44% of his routes from the perimeter (48% slot). In his four other games played, he’s spent 78% of his snaps from the slot. The worry with Kirk playing more outside is that Stephon Gilmore could follow him on those routes. It’s advantageous to keep Kirk in the slot more, but we’ll see if they actually do that considering his Week 4 usage. Gilmore has shadowed twice this year following Brandin Cooks and Courtland Sutton on 57-83% of their routes allowing only 5.5 targets, two receptions, and 16.5 scoreless receiving yards per game. If the Jaguars choose to keep Kirk inside more Gilmore won’t follow him. Gilmore has covered the slot on one snap this season. If Kirk is inside he’ll see Kenny Moore (70% zone, 65.4% catch rate, 125.3 passer rating) in coverage. A matchup we’ve already seen him crush. Kirk is a more volatile WR2 play now with Jones out.

Jamal Agnew: In Week 4 with Zay Jones out, Agnew drew a 26.1% Target share (six targets, four receptions, 50 receiving yards, two scores) while running a route on 55.6% of dropbacks (62% slot rate). He’ll likely reprise the slot role this week against Kenny Moore which puts him on the WR4/flex radar.

Zay Jones: Jones has seen eight or more targets in three of four games played. With this volume, he’s been extremely volatile, finishing as the WR32, WR76, WR5, and WR81 in weekly scoring. Jones is a WR4/5. While he’s seen a 21.3% Target share (31st), he hasn’t been efficient (63rd in yards per route run) and draws tougher corner assignments on the outside. He’ll run about 64% of his routes against Stephon Gilmore and the tandem of Isaiah Rodgers and Brandon Facyson. Rodgers and Facyson split corner duties last week opposite Gilmore. Gilmore remains one of the best corners in the NFL, with a 59.4% catch rate and 67.4 passer rating in coverage. Rodgers has allowed all three targets in his coverage to be secured this year (Career: 72 targets, 63.9% catch rate, 79.3 passer rating). Facyson has been the weak link, with an 81.8% catch rate and 101.9 passer rating.

Marvin Jones: Jones has been ruled out for Week 6.

Michael Pittman: Don’t let consecutive down games as the WR58 and WR37 in fantasy scoring sway belief in Pittman’s skills, but Ryan’s struggles have hurt him. While he’s 33rd in PFF receiving grade, he’s dipped to 50th in yards per route run. He’s drawn a 22.9% Target share and five red zone targets (22nd). He’s yet to be targeted deep, though, and his aDOT (6.6) is ranked 89th among wideouts. Pittman can have a bounceback game against two burnable corners if Ryan can get him the ball. He’ll run about 77% of his routes against Shaquill Griffin (68.4% catch rate, 128.4 passer rating) and Tyson Campbell (63% catch rate, 91.6 passer rating). Pittman is a mid WR2.

Alec Pierce: Pierce is a player on the rise. Last week his route run rate climbed to 75% as he drew a 21.9% Target share. He’s surpassed 80 receiving yards in consecutive games. He’s been quite effective in his limited playing time, ranking 27th in yards per route run, immediately behind D.K. Metcalf and CeeDee Lamb (minimum ten targets). He’ll run 93% of his routes against Campbell and Griffin as a plug-and-play WR4.

Tight Ends

Evan Engram: Engram is a TE1 this week. He’s been an inefficient route monster. He’s cobbled together two top 12 weeks based on his high route rate and volume. He’s 13th in Target share (15.0%), tenth in routes run, and 14th in route participation (71.4%). He’s also top ten in air yard share and deep targets. All of these areas are fantastic, but here are the warts. He’s only seen two red zone targets (21st) and has 1.30 yards per route run (19th). With his volume and a plus matchup in Week 6, he should find his way inside the top 12. Indy is 26th in DVOA, allowing the eighth-most receptions, 11th-most receiving yards, and fourth-most receiving touchdowns to the position.

IND TEs: This isn’t a spot to worry about plugging in Mo Alie-Cox, Jelani Woods, or Kylen Granson. Tight-end routes are being divided up between the three, with no one seeing more than 51% of the routes or a Target share above 9.3%.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Miami Dolphins

• MIN -3, O/U 45.5
• Vikings vs. Dolphins Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Vikings have been, as advertised, with the NFL’s fourth-highest neutral pace and ninth-best neutral passing rate. The Dolphins will pump the brakes coming in a 26th in neutral pace while they have taken to the air (12th in neutral passing rate).

Quarterbacks

Kirk Cousins: Cousins is a top-ten fantasy quarterback with huge upside this week. Overall he’s QB13 in fantasy points per game, ranking tenth in PFF passing grade and sixth in true completion rate. He has finished as a top-12 quarterback in three weeks. He’s primed to smash the Dolphins’ hapless secondary. Where do I begin when describing this pitiful unit? Miami is 32nd in pass defense DVOA with the third-highest success rate and EPA per dropback. The defensive front has done them no favors sitting at 30th in pressure rate, so Cousins should have all day to pick them apart.

Skylar Thompson: Even if Teddy Bridgewater clears concussion protocol, Thompson is expected to start this week. Last week he completed 57.6% of his passes for a paltry 5.0 yards per attempt in relief of Bridgewater. Let’s look back to his preseason performance for a larger context sample. Among quarterbacks with 25 or more preseason dropbacks (67 QBs total), Thompson was 15th in PFF passing grade, fourth in yards per attempt, and sixth in adjusted completion rate. He was 16th in deep ball rate with the 6th-highest deep PFF passing grade and first in deep adjusted completion rate (minimum five deep attempts). I understand it’s preseason and against vanilla defensive schemes, but these numbers are encouraging that he can at least support the passing weapons that we will look to start in Week 6. With at least 267 rushing yards in his first three years at Kansas State, Thompson also offers some mobility. The Vikings offer a soft secondary for Thompson to surprise against. They have allowed the 11th-highest success rate and 12th-highest EPA per dropback. Minnesota has been gashed for the highest explosive rate in the NFL. Thompson is a deep league QB2.

Running Backs

Dalvin Cook: Cook has been hot and cold this year. He’s run for at least 90 yards and posted 3.10 or higher yards after contact per attempt in three plus matchups against GB, DET, and CHI. Against tougher opponents in PHI and NO, he couldn’t crest 2.20 yards per contact per attempt or 80 rushing yards. His overall efficiency numbers are concerning, as he’s 35th in yards after contact per attempt and 33rd in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 15 carries). The biggest red flag for Cook that has my spider sense tingling is his lack of explosive plays. His 2.5% (40th) breakaway run rate is by far the lowest of his career. Cook is still the RB16 averaging 18.4 touches and 89.4 total yards, but it’s possible he’s lost a step from his peak. The Dolphins offer a reason to keep your Cook love in check this week. Miami is top seven in adjusted line yards, second-level yards, and open field yards. They have also conceded the 13th lowest explosive run rate, rushing yards per game, and rush success rate. The only ray of hope for Cook is Miami’s susceptibility to running backs in the passing game. The Dolphins are 29th in DVOA with the tenth-most reception and third-highest yards per reception allowed. The issue here is that Cook hasn’t been good as a receiver, either. He’s 33rd in Target share (8%) and 38th (out of 43 RBs) in yards per route run (minimum ten targets). Cook is a low-end RB1.

Alexander Mattison: Mattison has been listed as questionable (shoulder). Mattison is a touchdown or bust flex in deep leagues. He’s only handled 7.4 touches per game while averaging 30.4 total yards. The caveat is that he has nine red zone opportunities to Cook’s ten, so the red zone equity gives him viability in deep leagues or a dynasty format if you are struggling to fill out a lineup.

Weeks 4-5

Raheem Mostert: Mostert has been listed as questionable with a knee issue, but he seems likely to play after limited practices on Thursday and Friday. Mostert missed Wednesday’s practice with a knee issue that bears watching. Mostert has asserted himself as the clear primary back in Miami. Since Week 4, he’s averaged 18 touches and 101.5 total yards with RB30 and RB15 finishes. Mostert has shown flashes of his old prowess over the last two games ranking seventh in yards after contact per attempt and 18th in PFF’s elusive rating minimum 15 carries). Overall this season, he’s 24th in yards after contact per attempt and 22nd in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 15 carries). Before David Montgomery slugged his way around the field against the Vikings in Week 5, this run defense was being exploited weekly. In Weeks 1-4, Minnesota had bled out the tenth-most rushing yards, the sixth-highest explosive run rate, and the fourth-highest rush success rate. Mostert will evoke memories of his heyday in San Francisco this week. Start him as a strong RB2.

Chase Edmonds: With Mostert banged up, Edmons is worth holding on your rosters, but with Myles Gaskin getting more than him in Week 5, he’s not startable.

Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson: Jefferson is a must-start weekly and a top-five fantasy wide receiver. I know you didn’t need me to tell you that, but equate that statement to your parents telling you “to wear your seatbelt” every day. You already know it to be true, but it must be said. Jefferson is seventh in Target share (30.2%), tenth in air yard share (38.2%), and the WR3 in fantasy points per game. He’s already rolled up three outings with at least nine receptions and 140 receiving yards, and he could make it a four-pack this week. Jefferson will run about 64% of his routes against Nik Needham (57.1% catch rate, 115.2 passer rating) and Xavien Howard (66.7% catch rate, 149.3 passer rating.

Adam Thielen: Thielen is an uninspiring WR3 that gets a small bump because of the juicy matchup. Thielen has only commanded a 19.2% Target share (40th) and 22.7% share (55th) of the team’s air yards. His customary red zone role has remained as he’s eighth in red zone targets (eight), but the rest of his metrics scream he’s slowing down. He’s only finished higher than WR52 twice this season. He’s 56th in PFF receiving grade and 77th in yards per route run (minimum ten targets). He’ll run about 65% of his routes against Needham and Howard.

K.J. Osborn: Osborn is a must-sit and droppable at this point. He’s finished higher than WR46 only once this season. He’s only seen an 11.5% Target share (85th) and three red zone targets (38th).

Tyreek Hill: Hill doesn’t carry an injury designation this week despite popping up with a quad and foot injury. He’s practiced in full all week. Hill is the WR4 in fantasy points per game with a 30.7% Target share (sixth-best) and 35.0% target per route run rate (fifth). He’s fifth among wide receivers with nine deep targets. He’s second among wideouts in PFF receiving grade and yards per route run (minimum ten targets). He’ll run about 58% of his routes against Patrick Peterson (50% catch rate, 71.0 passer rating) and Cameron Dantzler (74.2% catch rate, 110.7 passer rating). Hill remains a low-end WR1 despite Thompson playing this week.

Jaylen Waddle: Waddle started the season on fire before faltering the last two weeks as the WR60 and WR76. Yes, instability at the quarterback position has contributed to this. Waddle remains the WR11 overall this season with a 23.3% Target share (26th). He’s 13th in PFF receiving grade and fourth in yards per route run (minimum ten targets). Minnesota has struggled with wide receivers that can produce after the catch this year, as they’re eighth in YAC and have the ninth-most missed tackles. Waddle has been among the league’s best in creating yards for himself, as he’s 11th in YAC per reception (minimum ten targets). Waddle is a top-15 wide receiver.

Tight Ends

Irv Smith Jr. Smith could pop off with a big game this week. He’ll be ranked comfortably inside my top 12 tight ends. Since Week 2, he’s seen his route run rate climb from 60% to 68.2%. Over that stretch, he’s seen a 14.6% Target share (17th) while ranking 14th in weighted opportunity. Miami has been wretched against tight ends ranking 29th in DVOA with the fourth-most receptions and third-highest catch rate surrendered. They have forked over the 11th-most fantasy points to inline tight ends (Smith 54.8% inline).

Mike Gesicki: If you’re in a pinch, and I do mean PINCH. Gesicki is a panic mode streamer option this week. Over the last two weeks, he’s been reintegrated into this offense with 59% and 66.7% route run rates. The problem is that he’s only drawn a 9% Target share which has amounted to 1.5 receptions and 26.5 receiving yards per game. His numbers are ugly, but the matchup against Minnesota is beautiful. They are 28th in DVOA against tight ends allowing the highest catch rate, tenth-highest receiving yards, 11th-best yards per reception, and 10th-highest fantasy points to slot tight ends (Gesicki 56.4% slot over the last two games). Add in that Tyreek Hill is banged up, and Gesicki could get a bump in the passing game this week.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. New Orleans Saints

• CIN -0.5, O/U 44.5
• Bengals vs. Saints Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Despite their offense lacking bite, the Bengals continue to operate positively overall, as they are seventh and second in neutral pace and passing rate.
• With Andy Dalton under center, the Saints are 19th in pace in close games with the second-highest neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Joe Burrow: Despite walking into Week 6 as the QB6 in fantasy, Burrow has not played well to this point. He’s 23rd in PFF passing grade, 20th in yards per attempt, 26th in big-time throw rate, and 23rd in adjusted completion rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). He’s the QB8 in expected fantasy points per game. Some of Burrow’s struggles can be attributed to pressure, as he’s absorbed the fifth-most quarterback with the seventh-lowest pocket time. The Saints are a middle-of-the-road pass defense, ranking 16th in EPA per dropback, 15th in yards per attempt, and 19th in passing touchdown rate allowed. They are 28th in pressure rate, so Burrow should have more time in the pocket this week. Even when he’s had clean pockets, he hasn’t been exceptional, so keep your hopes in check. From a clean pocket, he is 11th in PFF passing grade, but he’s also 18th in yards per attempt and 19th in passer rating (minimum 50 dropbacks). Burrow is a low-end QB1.

 Andy Dalton: Jameis Winston has been listed as questionable, but Dalton is drawing another start this week. Dalton is a QB2. He’s quietly been dealing in this short run with New Orleans. Dalton is fourth in PFF passing grade, fifth in yards per attempt, and sixth in big-time throw rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). He takes on his former team that has been quite good against quarterbacks. The Bengals allow the sixth-lowest success rate per dropback, seventh-lowest yards per attempt, and a pitiful 2.1% passing touchdown rate (fourth-lowest).

Running Backs

Joe Mixon: Mixon has been the Najee Harris of Cincinnati. Volume. That’s all Mixon has going for him in fantasy. He remains one of the most inefficient running backs in the game. He’s the RB17 in fantasy because he’s sixth in snap share, first in weighted opportunities, and first in red zone touches. That’s it. He’s averaged 23.2 touches and 85.6 total yards per game. Pick an efficiency metric, and I’m sure Mixon is near the bottom of the list. He’s 30th in yards per route run, 54th in juke rate, 47th in breakaway run rate, and 53rd in yards created per touch. Among 66 running backs with 15 or more carries, he’s 63rd in yards after contact per attempt and 62nd in PFF’s elusive rating. Yes, he’s been that bad. Mixon remains a top-15 back based on volume and goal-line totes. The matchup this week is another rough one. The Saints have the sixth-lowest rushing success rate and the 11th-lowest explosive run rate allowed. They have surrendered the lowest rush EPA in the NFL. Even Mixon’s 14.3% Target share (tenth) won’t help him much against a defense that’s eighth in DVOA, giving up the fifth-lowest yards per reception to running backs.

Weeks 5

Alvin Kamara: Kamara looked revitalized in Week 5. He handled a season-high 73% snap share with 29 touches that he turned into 194 total yards. His efficiency in the rushing department is still concerning, as he only cooked up 2.30 yards after contact per attempt and one missed tackle forced on 23 carries. His performance (5.28 yards per route run) was impressive, but it could also be a testament to how bad the Seahawks’ defense is. The Bengals aren’t nearly as giving to running backs, with the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game allowed. They have brick-walled backs with the 11th-best rushing success rate while ranking tenth in explosive run rate and holding offenses to the seventh-lowest rushing yards per game. Kamara’s prospects through the air aren’t any better, as Cincinnati is sixth in DVOA, giving up the sixth-fewest receiving yards. Kamara remains an RB1 with his every-down role intact and the upside for 25-plus touches.

Mark Ingram: With only 22% of the snaps, nine touches (16 total yards), and zero red zone work in Week 5, Ingram returns to low-end stash status.

Wide Receivers

Ja’Marr Chase: Chase has struggled this year with only one top-24 fantasy wide receiver finish this season. His usage has still been elite, though, with a 28% Target share (14th) and 33.9% air yard share (20th). Despite ranking second in red zone targets (11), he only has two touchdowns on his 2022 resume. He’s 35th in PFF receiving grade and 53rd in yards per route run (minimum ten targets). Chase is a screaming regression candidate. This could be the week he balls out. The Saints’ corners’ have utilized zone coverage on 55-60% of their snaps. Against zone, Chase has seen 59.2% of his target volume, ranking 23rd in PFF receiving grade and 25th in yards per route run (minimum seven zone targets). Chase will face Bradley Roby (46.4% catch rate, 61.3 passer rating) and Paulson Adebo (77.8% catch rate, 158.3 passer rating) on nearly 75% of his routes. Chase can succeed against Roby and cook Adebo. Chase still leads the team with six deep targets and now gets to tee off against a secondary that’s 26th in DVOA against deep passing. Chase remains a WR1.

BETTLE MATCHUP OF THE WEEK

Each week, we’ll pick a matchup of the week, presented by Bettle. For Week 6, Ja’Marr Chase is our Bettle Matchup of the Week.

Tee Higgins: Higgins tried to gut it out last week through a sprained ankle but was unable to. He has been listed as questionable after practicing in a limited capacity on Friday. When Higgins has been fully healthy, he’s been amazing. He’s ninth in PFF receiving grade, 15th in yards per route run, and 18th in yards per reception (minimum ten targets). He’ll run about 81% of his routes against Roby and Adebo. Higgins is a risky WR2/3. If you have better or comparable options, I would look to them.

Tyler Boyd: Boyd is a lackluster WR4. Boyd has only two games this season inside the top 30 fantasy wide receivers. After five games he’s the WR44 in fantasy points per game with a 12.2% Target share and only two red zone looks. He’ll run about 82% of his routes against Justin Evans (69.2% catch rate, 90.5 passer rating) who has been electric since taking over slot coverage.

Michael Thomas: Thomas has been ruled out for Week 6.

Chris Olave: Olave has been listed as questionable (concussion) for Week 6. If Olave can gain clearance before Sunday he should get peppered. Olave has seen a 25.8% Target share (21st) and 28.8% target per route run rate (16th). He’s first in air yards and deep targets among wide receivers. Olave is also eighth in PFF receiving grade and 11th in yards per route run (minimum ten targets). He’s a strong WR2/3 if he suits up.Olave will run about 77% of his routes against Chidobe Awuzie (42.4% catch rate, 61.4 passer rating) and Eli Apple (66.7% catch rate, 87.8 passer rating.

Jarvis Landry: Landry has been ruled out for Week 6.

Tight Ends

Hayden Hurst: Hurst has been listed as questionable (groin). Hurst has been a profitable streaming option all season who now sits at TE11 in fantasy scoring. This week he falls to TE2 territory against the Saints. Hurst has a 14.8% Target share (14th) while ranking seventh in routes run and ninth in route participation. While his red zone role (fifth in red zone targets) has been healthy, his efficiency has been about what you’d expect (30th in yards per route run). The Saints eat tight ends alive in coverage. New Orleans is second in DVOA with the second-lowest catch rate and eighth-fewest receiving yards allowed.

Taysom Hill: Hill has been feast or famine. He has finished as the TE3, TE50, TE16, and TE1. Hill shouldn’t be listed as a tight end, but that’s a battle for a different day. He’s run a total of 14 routes all season while catching one pass for two yards. The bulk of his production has come via rushing, with 5.3 carries and 57 rushing yards per game (1.3 touchdowns per game). Toss a dart with Hill in your tight end spot if you need the upside, but he’s a risky TE2.

Baltimore Ravens vs. New York Giants

• BAL -5.5, O/U 43.5
• Ravens vs. Giants Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Each team is deploying a rushing-laden offensive attack. The Ravens are 12th in neutral rushing rate, which New York has bested. Since Week 3, the Giants are third in neutral rushing rate. The focus on running the ball is a shared wrinkle but how these teams are functioning overall differs massively. Baltimore has been content under Greg Roman to play slow (29th in neutral pace), but Brian Daboll’s Giants have begun to sprint. Over the last three games, they are eighth in neutral pace.

Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson: Jackson is the QB2 in fantasy with the second-most passing touchdowns and the ninth-highest big-time throw rate. Let’s be honest. You’re never sitting, Jackson. Ever. But this is a good week to expect his fantasy output to be somewhat muted. Since Rashod Bateman has been banged up, Jackson has had tough matchups, but his passing numbers have also suffered. He’s had back-to-back games below 6.0 yards per attempt as the QB19 and QB15. The Giants have been an above-average pass defense with the 12th-lowest EPA per dropback, ninth-lowest yards per attempt, and tenth-fewest fantasy points per game allowed. What could help Jackson’s case is that the Giants have moved to more man coverage over the last two weeks (50-53%). Jackson is sixth in EPA per play against man with the most passing touchdowns (tied).

Daniel Jones: The Ravens’ pass defense isn’t the cakewalk that it appears to be on paper. Over the last two weeks, they are 13th in passing yards allowed per game and 14th in EPA per dropback and explosive pass rate allowed. Josh Allen struggled to the tune of 5.9 yards per attempt while completing 52.8% of his passes. Joe Burrow could only muster 6.2 yards per attempt. The Giants have neutered Jones’ passing upside this season, as he’s only eclipsed 30 pass attempts twice and 200 passing yards once. His value as a QB2 is found in his legs. He’s third among quarterbacks in rushing yards per game (46.0) and fifth in red zone carries. The Ravens have conceded production to quarterbacks on the ground with the eighth-most rushing yards and most rushing touchdowns.

Running Backs

Weeks 3-5

J.K. Dobbins: Since his return, Dobbins has averaged only 11.3 touches and 49 total yards. Outside of his blowup game with two touchdowns (RB10), he’s finished as the RB45 and RB57. He is currently a good bet for 10-12 touches per game, and all of the red zone work, but if he doesn’t score, it could be a rough week in fantasy. He’s shown flashes of his old self, ranking fourth in juke rate, 16th in breakaway rate, and 25th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 15 carries). If there was a matchup for the Ravens to bump his workload up, it’s this one. New York has allowed the 12th-highest rush success rate while ranking 24th and 26th in EPA per rush and explosive run rate allowed. Dobbins is an upside RB3.

Saquon Barkley: Despite a shoulder injury scare that forced him to miss some snaps last week, Barkley keeps trucking along as the RB3 in fantasy. He’s averaged 23 touches and 135.2 total yards. He’s top-two in snap share, opportunity share, and weighted opportunity. He has been vintage Barkley, ranking third in evaded tackles, first in breakaway runs, and ninth in yards created per touch. He faces a Baltimore run defense that’s 15th in rushing success rate while allowing the 12th-lowest rushing yards per game and explosive run rate. Barkley is a matchup-proof monster who hasn’t finished lower than RB17 all season. With his 18.7% Target share (second-best) and 11th-best yards per route run, he can handle a Baltimore defense that’s given up the second-most receptions and fifth-most receiving yards to backs. Barkley RB1 SZN continues.

Wide Receivers

Rashod Bateman: Bateman has been ruled out (foot).

Devin Duvernay: With Bateman banged up over the last two games, Duvernay has absorbed a 21.8% Target share and 41.1% of the team’s air yards. He’s posted a solid 1.94 yards per route run as the WR42 and WR26 in weekly fantasy scoring. Two major worries for counting on Duvernay as anything more than a WR4 are his lack of a red zone role (three targets, 38th) and a possible Adoree’ Jackson shadow. Jackson shadowed in each of the first three games (65-91% of routes), allowing a total of eight targets, six receptions, 57 receiving yards, and one score. Duvernay will run about 71% of his routes on the perimeter, so it won’t be hard for Jackson to follow him.

Darius Slayton: Yes, Slayton just saw a 25.9% Target share in Week 5, but I have no interest in rolling out a wide receiver tied to Daniel Jones‘s arm, which will run about 66% of his routes against Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters. Since Week 3, Humphrey (75% catch rate, 52.1 passer rating) and Peters (50% catch rate, 50.5 passer rating) have been playing extremely well. No, thanks.

Tight Ends

Mark Andrews: Smash Andrews. Smash. Andrews is the TE2 in fantasy, commanding elite numbers. He’s first in Target share (34.1%), second in target per route run rate, first in receiving yards, and third in yards per route run. He’s finished as a top-three tight end in three of five games, with only the Bills having the talent to shut him down (TE41). The Giants aren’t the Bills ranking 25th in DVOA, giving up the fourth-highest catch rate and ninth-most receptions to the position.