Dallas Cowboys vs. Los Angeles Rams

By: Andrew Erickson

• LAR -5.5, O/U 43
• Cowboys vs. Rams Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Despite Cooper Rush being under center, the Cowboys have stayed upbeat, ranking tenth in neutral pace. The change has been a move to a run-balanced attack (tenth in neutral rushing rate).
• The Rams have slowed to a crawl (28th in neutral pace) while they continue to throw the ball a hefty amount (seventh in neutral passing rate).

Quarterbacks

Matthew Stafford: Los Angeles we have a problem. Matthew Stafford has taken a major step back in his second season with the Rams ranking as the QB26 overall behind the likes of David Mills, Baker Mayfield and Joe Flacco. He’s underperforming the most versus expectation (-24.9 fantasy points) which is indicative of how poor he is playing. The Rams offensive line is providing him no favors as the No.32-ranked unit in pass-blocking this season per PFF. He cannot be trusted in a matchup versus the Dallas Cowboys defense that has generated the league’s second-highest pressure rate.

Cooper Rush: Dak Prescott is not expected to make his return for Dallas in Week 5, giving Cooper Rush the starting nod for the fourth consecutive game this season. Rush has performed admirably in relief of Prescott, leading Dallas to a 3-0 record. He’s ranked inside the top-12 in most passing categories, capped off by a QB13 fantasy finish in Week 4 versus the Washington Commanders. However, that was easily his softest matchup to date. The LA Rams provide a bigger hurdle to overcome as they have allowed just one QB to surpass 16 fantasy points against them this season (Josh Allen). The other QB finished their weeks as the QB18, QB22 and QB22 respectively. If you’ve been using Rush in 2QB-formats, I think he’s fine to keep in starting lineups with how well he has played. But he’s not an option in one-QB leagues.

Running Backs

Weeks 1-4

Ezekiel Elliott: Ezekiel Elliott earned 19 carries in Week 4…but rushed for just 49 yards (2.6 yards per carry) against a stout Washington front. The 21 overall touches are nice to see, but the lack of efficiency is just the reality with Zeke at this point in his career. He’s also a complete afterthought in the passing game. Elliott has caught more than one pass once this year despite ranking in the top-12 in RB route participation. His 10% target rate per route run is tied for the lowest (Darrell Henderson) among RBs that have run a route on at least 50% of their team dropbacks this season. He is a TD-or-bust RB3 without any hope of him hitting a high rushing total in Week 5. Los Angeles gives up the fewest fantasy points to the RB position.

Tony Pollard: Pollard was also surprisingly inefficient as a rusher in Week 4, which is a credit to the Washington Commanders’ strong defensive line. The Cowboys RB totaled just 6 yards on 8 carries (0.8 yards per carry). He rushed for 18 yards after contact. Needless to say, Dallas could not open up any lanes for their tailbacks in Week 4 and that’s going to be the case again in Week 5. Per PFF OL/DL matchup chart, Dallas is at the biggest disadvantage when they decide to run the football versus the Rams. You’re hoping that Pollard can just break off a big run if/and the Rams stack the box, but that’s no guarantee. Pollard has a better chance of producing in the passing game based on his 27% target rate per route run. Like his teammate Zeke, Pollard is an RB3 for Week 5, but hardly a desirable FLEX option. Pollard has been listed as questionable (illness), so stay vigilant with the inactives report on Sunday.

Darrell Henderson: For the second straight week, Darrell Henderson (31 routes, 55% route participation) ran more routes than Cam Akers (14 routes, 25% route participation). Henderson also out-targeted Akers 4-to-1 and out-snapped him 59% to 38% in Week 4. His role as the preferred receiving back makes Henderson game script-proof, but he’s a better option in game where the Rams project to be trailing. As 4.5-point home favorites, this probably isn’t the spot to consider Henderson. Although he is more serviceable in PPR formats; he could see a lot of dump-off passes as Stafford will likely see a lot of pressure from the Dallas pass rush.

Cam Akers: Neither Rams RB did anything on the ground versus the elite 49ers run defense in Week 4. And even though Akers had one more carry than Henderson (8 vs 7), he rushed for just 13 yards (1.6 yards per carry). I’d anticipate Akers to lead the charge as the team’s main ball carrier in Week 5 and to be more effective than in Week 4 in a better matchup. Dallas ranks 27th in rushing EPA allowing 4.8 yards per carry to opposing RBs.

Wide Receivers

CeeDee Lamb: Hopefully people are starting to realize that WRs facing the Rams defense is a good thing, despite Jalen Ramsey‘s reputation as a “lock-down” cornerback. Because he can’t cover everybody and doesn’t shadow specific opposing WRs. As a result, the Rams have allowed the third-most fantasy points and most completions to WRs this season. Start Lamb with confidence as a fantasy WR1. The 3rd-year WR owns a 36% Target share (2nd) and 51% air yards share (1st) with Cooper Rush under center this season. Lamb popped up with a groin injury late in the week earning him a questionable tag, but after MRI results came back fine I expect him to play.

Noah Brown: Brown finished with the second-most targets in Week 4 (6, 23% Target share). However, Brown ran a route on just 76% of team dropbacks because he was forced to leave late with a neck injury (79% snap share). The expectation is that he is back for Week 5. He’s been a nice story the last three weeks, commanding a 21% Target share, 69 receiving yards and four catches per game as the WR31 in half-point scoring. However, the return of Michael Gallup makes it tougher to trust Brown as anything more than a WR4.

Michael Gallup: First game back for Michael Gallup: 83% route participation, three targets and one touchdown. He’s a plug-in-play fantasy WR upside option ahead of a juicy Rams matchup. I’d expect his snaps to increase another week removed from his injury.

Cooper Kupp: Cooper Kupp is on pace for 179 catches and 230 targets this season, with 42 receptions through the first four weeks. The overall fantasy WR1 this week, next week and probably every week after that.

Allen Robinson: It’s over for Allen Robinson. He ran a route on 98% of Matthew Stafford‘s 56 dropbacks Monday night and caught just 2 passes for 7 yards on 6 targets. Cooper Kupp (40% Target share, 100% route rate) and Tyler Higbee (29% Target share, 84% route rate) dominated the receiving production for the Rams. A-Rob had one target in the first half of Monday night’s game. He owns a 13% Target share through the first month of the season. His 11% target rate per route run ranks fourth-worst among WRs with at least ten targets this season. You’re just praying Robinson falls in the end zone.

Tight Ends

Tyler Higbee: As previously noted the Rams passing game is going through Kupp and Tyler Higbee. The Rams tight end ranks third in Target share (24%) and first in raw targets (38) at the position this season. And he’s actually due for positive TD regression. Higbee ranks fifth in red-zone targets but has scored zero TDs. Keep starting him as a TE1 until the wheels fall off.

Dalton Schultz: The same cannot be said for Dalton Schultz, who is not startable as long as Cooper Rush is under center. The three-game sample size of Schultz playing with Rush has resulted in an average of fewer than 2 catches and 10 receiving yards per game. He caught zero passes on 3 targets last week. And that came with the Cowboys TE running a route on 79% of dropbacks on a 90% snap share. The Rams have also allowed the fewest catches to TEs this season despite facing Dawson Knox, Kyle Pitts, Zach Ertz and George Kittle the last four weeks.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Arizona Cardinals

By: Andrew Erickson

• PHI -5, O/U 49
• Eagles vs. Cardinals Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Eagles’ sprinting pace is helping to elevate their passing volume. They have the third-highest neutral rushing rate and sit at 24th in pass attempts. They have the third-highest no-huddle rate.
• Arizona is 16th in neutral pace, but Kliff Kingsbury has slowed the team even further over their last two games. Since Week 3, the Cardinals are 26th in neutral pace. He’s deployed a run-balanced system ranking 19th in neutral passing percentage.

Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts: The Eagles QB stands as the QB3 overall this season averaging 25.7 fantasy points per game. His 200 rushing yards (50 per game) rank second behind only Lamar Jackson, but he leads all QBs with four rushing scores. He’s a top-three option every single week, and has a great chance of a QB1 overall finish versus a Cardinals defense that has struggled versus the pass. They rank 28th in pass defense EPA and have allowed the most yards after the catch of any defensive unit. Hurts ranks 6th in total passing yards after the catch this season and fourth in completion percentage above expectation.

Kyler Murray: After totaling just 12 rushes through the first three weeks of the season, Murray turned on the afterburners with 12 carries alone for 26 yards in Week 4. The yardage still wasn’t great, but the rushing is always just going to give Murray a needed fantasy boost. The Cardinals QB is miraculously only the QB8 in points per game despite leading the NFL in passing attempts, because this Kliff Kingsbury offense is just dysfunctional. As a result, Murray ranks second-to-last in the NFL in yards per attempt (5.7) in front of only Mitchell Trubisky. The matchup versus the Eagles defense is also no walk in the park. Philadelphia gives up the 3rd fewest fantasy points to the QB position and they rank No. 1 in pass defense EPA allowing the league’s lowest completion percentage (56%). For Murray to have a top-5 finish, he will need to run more with his legs and hope that starting cornerbacks Darius Slay and Avonte Maddox miss the contest. He’s a mid-range QB1 for Week 3.

Running Backs

Weeks 1-4

Miles Sanders: Have a day Miles Sanders. The Eagles RB totaled 134 rushing yards on 27 carries in Week 4 while playing on 67% of the team’s offensive snaps. He ran a route on 50% of Jalen Hurts‘ dropbacks and was targeted three times (12 catches). Overall a 77% opportunity share, which boosted his season-long opportunity share to 69% – the 10th-best mark among RBs this season. And most importantly, Sanders also scored from the 5-yard line and 10-yard line. His six carries from inside the 10 are tied with Hurts for the most on the team. The usage has been great for Sanders, so I’d expect him to keep up his productivity against the Cardinals run defense. Arizona hasn’t given up massive numbers to opposing rushers – 30th in rushes faced this season – but they haven’t faced quite a rushing juggernaut like the Eagles yet. Philly ranks 2nd in expected run rate this season and 5th in true run rate. And per PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart, the Eagles have the 5th biggest advantage in trenches. He’s a solid RB2 option this week, with RB1 upside if he finds the end zone with the Eagles’ fourth-highest implied team total.

Kenneth Gainwell: It would have been nice to see Gainwell take on a larger role with Boston Scott out last week, but alas he got 6 touches on a 27% snap share. Gainwell scored a rushing TD on his lone carry inside the 10-yard line and also was missed by Hurts in the red zone on a potential walk-in score. But all in all, Gainwell has not supplanted Sanders as the true receiving back and will only pay off in fantasy if he score. Super fringy play especially if Scott returns.

James Conner: Conner still rules the Arizona Cardinals backfield – 18 touches for 77 yards in Week 4 – but remains super reliant on volume and TD production to deliver fantasy production. He ranks 50th out of 55 qualifying RBs in yards after contact per attempt meaning he’s not creating much on his own. It’s problematic versus a stout Eagles front that hasn’t allowed any rushing room since D’Andre Swift went for 100-plus yards back in Week 1. No RB they have faced has surpassed 32 rushing yards since Week 2. Their DL also ranks fourth in fewest rushing yards allowed before contact (1.09) this season. Conner is a low-end RB2 that you’ll begrudgingly have to play. His role as a receiver increased last week (57% route participation) so stay assured he will catch passes if and when Arizona trails in this game. He has 3 catches in his last two games and has averaged four targets this season. He’ll face uphill sledding behind a battered offensive line with Rodney Hudson doubtful (knee) to play and Justin Pugh (elbow) also questionable.

Eno Benjamin: He’s viewed as the pass-catcher in Arizona’s backfield, but his 14% route participation, 1 target and 14% snap share from Week 4 hardly suggest he’s worth sniffing fantasy lineups. He might be better off on the waiver wire.

Wide Receivers

A.J. Brown: Not even the rain can stop A.J. Brown. The Titans WR caught five balls for 95 yards on a team-high 29% Target share in Week 4. This season, AJB leads all players in weighted opportunity (WOPR) which factors in total Target share and air yards share. Needless to say, the former Titans WR is vacuuming up all of the high-value targets in the Eagles passing attack. Expect Brown to continue his fantasy WR1 production versus a Cardinals secondary that ranks last in yards after the catch allowed this season. The Eagles WR ranks fourth in the NFL in YAC.

DeVonta Smith: The Slim Reaper has granted the full WR3 boom-or-bust experience through the 1st month of the season. In two games he’s surpassed over 80 receiving yards with a WR1 overall performance. But outside those two games are two finishes outside the top-70. His upside alone and role in the Eagles offense – 10th overall in route participation (97%) and 22% Target share – warrants FLEX consideration, especially in a solid matchup versus the Cardinals. Arizona perimeter defensive backs Marco Wilson and Trayvon Mullen are each bottom-15 graded CBs per PFF this season.

Marquise Brown: It’s hard not to be productive when your QB leads the NFL in pass attempts. Case in point with Hollywood Brown, who ranks third in the NFL in targets (11 per game) and fourth in the NFL in receptions (7.5 per game). He also ranks 6th in air yards (420). Brown plays such an integral role in the Arizona passing game that he has a super-high floor every single week, even in a tougher matchup versus the Eagles, who are middle-of-the-pack versus fantasy WRs this season. They do, however, play very favorably into chasing Brown’s volume as they have faced the second-most WR targets this season. Brown’s ultimate finish will hinder how efficient he is on the volume he gets, and I’d be optimistic after his slow start to the season. His yards per route run has increased every single week.

Rondale Moore: Rondale Moore played 86% of the snaps while running a route on 94% of dropbacks in Week 4. He relegated Greg Dortchback to the bench. Moore earned 5 targets and a 10.4 aDOT in his season debut, seeing two targets of 20-plus air yards. His downfield usage and lack of slot deployment (34% slot rate) were vastly different from his rookie-year usage. Considering Dortch was a top-36 WR for three straight weeks before Moore came back into the lineup, the second-year wideout owns sneaky WR4 appeal in Week 5. Especially if Darius Slay is healthy, who would likely force targets away from Marquise Brown. Moore picked up a knee injury this week and only managed limited practices on Thursday and Friday. He’s been listed as questionable. With A.J. Green not carrying an injury designation this week and back in the lineup, if Moore is active, I expect him to reprise his slot role. This would pin him against Josiah Scott, who has allowed a 72.7% catch rate and 140.3 passer rating in his career (22 targets). If Moore can’t play, fire up Greg Dortch, who would operate as the inside receiver.

Tight Ends

Dallas Goedert IS a TOP 3 TE in Week 5

ARI leads the NFL in YAC allowed

Goedert leads PHI in YAC/rec

ARI also 29th in DVOA vs TEs

DALLAS GOEDERT SMASH WEEK pic.twitter.com/VsCbLR1iMf

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) October 6, 2022

Dallas Goedert: Other than Austin Ekeler – who owns a -1.4 aDOT – no player has accumulated more yards after the catch than Dallas Goedert. The Eagles talented TE is averaging a league-leading 13 yards after the catch and 9.3 expected yards after the catch. He has absolutely terrorized defense with the ball in his hands, and that should be the presumption against Arizona; their defense ranks second-worst in fantasy points allowed to TEs this season. They have faced the most targets and allowed the second-most yards to the position. The Cardinals have allowed the most YAC in the NFL. Considering Goedert’s usage in Week 4 – 100% route participation, 25% Target share – he is slated for a ceiling performance in Week 5. His season-long route participation ranks fifth overall this season (83%).

Zach Ertz: Ertz has been nearly perfect as “the” late-round tight end in 2022. He currently stands as the TE4, which is exactly how he performed last season with Arizona sans DeAndre in 2021. There’s no reason to think his production falters either until Hopkins returns with the league’s fourth-most targets (8 per game) and second-most routes run among TEs. Ertz also leads all TEs in red-zone targets (10) which provides him additional upside across all scoring formats. Fantasy TE1.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens

By: Pat Fitzmaurice

• BAL -3.5, O/U 48
• Bengals vs. Ravens Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• While I might grow frustrated with donkey Zach Taylor’s play calling, the Bengals are still ninth in neutral pace with the third-highest passing rate in this environment.
• Baltimore still moves at a methodical pace (30th) while deploying their ground game with regularity (24th in neutral passing rate).

Quarterbacks

Joe Burrow: Things seem to be trending in the right direction for Burrow. He’s thrown for 275 and 287 yards in his last two games. He’s thrown multiple TD passes in each of his last two games. After throwing four interceptions in Week 1, Burrow hasn’t been picked off since. And after being sacked 13 times in his first two starts, Burrow has been sacked only three times in his last two starts. He now gets a delicious matchup against a Ravens defense that has given up a league-high 1,261 passing yards and has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing QBs. Burrow rocked the Ravens for 416 passing yards and three touchdowns in Week 7 of 2021, then eviscerated Baltimore with 5255 passing yards and four touchdowns in Week 16. The Ravens have since gotten healthier at cornerback, but they’re still being picked apart through the air. Burrow is a midrange QB1 this week.

Lamar Jackson: Jackson cruised into Week 3 as the top-scoring fantasy quarterback but was only the QB19 last week against the Bills, throwing for 144 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions, and rushing 11 times for 73 yards and no TDs. You’re starting Jackson, of course, but this isn’t a great spot for him. He’s facing a Bengals defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to QBs, and Jackson could be without WR Rashod Bateman, who’s dealing with a foot injury and wasn’t practicing as of Wednesday. The Bengals have only allowed 22 rushing yards to quarterbacks so far this season, but Jackson ran 12 times for 88 yards in his only start against Cincinnati last year.

Running Backs

Joe Mixon: The touch volume Mixon has been getting is glorious. The efficiency? Not so much. With 82 carries, Mixon trails only Saquon Barkley in that category. Mixon also has 17 receptions on 24 targets — already getting him halfway to the 48 targets he had in 2021. But Mixon has scored only one touchdown and is averaging only 2.7 yards per carry behind an offensive line that ranks 27th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards run-blocking metric. He’s also averaging just 4.8 yards per target. As a result of his low efficiency, Mixon currently ranks as the RB16 in half-PPR scoring. Still, Mixon’s immense workload makes him a midrange RB1 against a Ravens defense that he gashed for 65 rushing yards, 70 receiving yards and two touchdowns when he last faced Baltimore in December 2021.

J.K. Dobbins: The Ravens were cautious with Dobbins when he made his 2022 debut in Week 3 following a long recovery from a major knee injury, giving him 27 snaps and seven carries. He had a more robust workload last week vs. the Bills, playing 35 snaps and finishing with 13-41-1 rushing and 4-22-1 receiving. Dobbins missed practice on Wednesday with a chest injury. Assuming it’s not enough to keep him out of action this week, it appears safe to roll out Dobbins as an RB2 vs. the Bengals.

Wide Receivers

Ja’Marr Chase: Chase opened the year with a 10-129-1 game against the Steelers, but he’s been the WR36 over the last three weeks, with 15-164-1 over that span. In Week 4, the Dolphins frequently double-teamed Chase and single-covered Tee Higgins with CB Xavien Howard – and Higgins made them pay, finishing with 7-124-1, including a 59-yard TD catch on which Howard had no safety help whatsoever. Chase, to his credit, still managed to post 4-81-0 despite the extra attention. This week, Chase faces the Ravens’ outside CB duo of Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters. On paper, it’s a very good CB tandem, as PFF had graded Humphrey and Peters 38th and 20th, respectively, among 105 cornerbacks so far this season. But Baltimore has given up more fantasy points to WRs than any other defense, so this is not a matchup to be feared.

Tee Higgins: The last time Tee Higgins faced the Ravens — in Week 16 of 2021 — he erupted for 12-194-2 in a 41-21 Bengals victory. In fairness, the Ravens were missing injured CBs Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey in that game. But then again, Peters and Humphrey are healthy now, and yet the Ravens are giving up a league-high half-PPR 41.2 fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Over the last three Weeks, Higgins is the WR5 in fantasy scoring. He’s dealing with some sort of ankle issue and has been listed as questionable, so be sure to monitor his status, but of course you’re starting him if he plays.

Tyler Boyd: As the No. 3 receiver in Cincinnati behind Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, Boyd doesn’t offer a safe floor, but he’s a high-quality slot man capable of randomly turning in a big week, as when he posted 4-105-1 in Week 3. Barring major injury problems, you’re probably not starting Boyd this week. But if Tee Higgins‘ knee issue jeopardizes his Week 5 status, Boyd becomes a more interesting fantasy option.

Rashod Bateman: Bateman has been ruled out (foot).

Devin Duvernay:  With Bateman out of action this weekend, Duvernay becomes an interesting option. He’s only been targeted 13 times this season but already has three TD catches (along with a kick-return touchdown). With his track speed, Duvernay is capable of scoring from anywhere on the field, and he doesn’t need heavy target volume to pay dividends. Duvernay falls into the WR4 range and offers flex appeal.

Tight Ends

Hayden Hurst: Hurst scored his first touchdown as a Bengal last week, finishing with 3-27-1 against the Dolphins. After seeing 15 targets in his first two games, Hurst has drawn only six targets in his last two games. His target outlook would be enhanced if WR Tee Higgins were unable to play this week due to a knee issue. But otherwise, he’s no better than a risky midrange TE2 as he has been listed as questionable with his lingering groin issue.

Mark Andrews: Andrews stakeholders had become so spoiled by the Baltimore tight end’s stellar early-season numbers that his 2-15-0 stat line in Week 4 was a shock to the system. But there’s no reason to worry about Andrews, who’s averaging 9 targets, 6 catches and 65 yards per game. When he last faced the Bengals in Week 16 of 2021, Andrews had 8-125-1.

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs

By: Pat Fitzmaurice

• KC -7, O/U 51.5
• Raiders vs. Chiefs Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• This game will be the holy grail of play and passing volume. Each team ranks inside the top ten in neutral pace (LVR seventh, KC second) and neutral passing rate (LVR second, KC eighth). Let the fireworks begin.

Quarterbacks

Derek Carr: Carr was ineffective as a passer last week against the Broncos, throwing for 188 yards and no touchdowns, but he ran for 40 yards — the fifth-highest rushing total of his nine-year career. Before that disappointing performance against the Broncos, Carr had thrown for at least 252 yards and two touchdowns in all three of his other starts. He should have sturdy floor against a Chiefs defense that’s giving up 22.1 fantasy points per game to QBs. Raiders-Chiefs has a Vegas total of 51 points, and with the Raiders 7-point underdog, they’re likely to find themselves in a pass-heavy game script. Consider Carr a low-end QB1 for Week 5.

Patrick Mahomes: Do you think Patrick Mahomes enjoys playing the Raiders? In eight career games against the Silver and Black, Mahomes has thrown for 2,546 yards (318.3 per game), with 22 touchdowns and three interceptions, and an average of 8.6 yards per attempt. He’s 7-1 lifetime against the Raiders. So far this year, Las Vegas has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. The Raiders could potentially be without injured CBs Rock Ya-Sin and Anthony Averett. This is a smash spot for Mahomes.

Running Backs

Josh Jacobs: Josh Jacobs has played 72% of the Raiders’ offensive snaps, has handled 77% of team carries and has handled 100% of team carries inside the opponent’s 10-yard line. In the Raiders’ first three games — all losses – Jacobs averaged 64 rushing yards and had zero touchdowns. In their Week 4 win over the Broncos, Jacobs ran for 144 yards and two touchdowns. In the 2021 regular season, Jacobs averaged 73.4 rushing yards and 0.88 touchdowns in wins, and 41.9 rushing yards and 0.29 touchdowns in losses. With the Raiders 7-point road underdogs against the Chiefs, Jacobs should be regarded as a midrange RB2.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire: CEH has played 45% of the Chiefs’ offensive snaps. He’s averaging 10.3 carries a game and has handled more than eight carries only once this season. He’s averaging 3.5 targets a game. In other words, CEH doesn’t exactly have a hearty workload, but he’s the RB4 in half-PPR fantasy scoring because he’s scored five touchdowns and is averaging 5.1 yards per carry and 8.4 yards per target. Edwards-Helaire profiles as a midrange RB2 this week against the Raiders. In all likelihood you’re starting him if you have him on your roster. Just realize that he’s been overachieving relative to his workload.

Jerick McKinnon & Isiah Pacheco: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the headliner in the Chiefs’ backfield, but it’s really a three-man committee. McKinnon has played 105 snaps this season but only has 23 touches (17 carries, six receptions) to show for it. He’s not a fantasy option this week. Pacheco has played fewer snaps than McKinnon, but he has 28 carries on the season and has had double-digit carries in two games — both of them easy Chiefs victories. With Kansas City a 7-point home favorite against Las Vegas this weekend, it’s possible Pacheco gets a lot of late-game work as the designated closer in the Chiefs’ running game — but making such assumptions about game script is dangerous and generally imprudent.

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams: Last season, Davante Adams had an enormous 29.6% Target share for the Packers. His Target share for the Raiders so far this season: 32.4 %. With 26-290-3, Adams is “only” the WR9 in fantasy scoring right now. But there are no significant concerns about his outlook going forward. Start him with confidence in a potential shootout against the Chiefs.

Hunter Renfrow: Renfrow returned to practice this week after missing the last two games with a concussion. If he’s cleared to play, regard him as a WR4 with more appeal in PPR leagues than standard leagues.

Mack Hollins: A journeyman who first entered the league in 2017, Hollins has established himself as the Raiders’ No. 3 receiver, and with 17 receptions, he’s already topped his previous single-season high of 16. But take away Hollins’ 8-158-1 outburst against the Titans in Week 3 and he’s averaging 3.0 catches and 38.3 yards a game. He’s not playable this week, but he might be fantasy-viable when the byes kick in next week.

JuJu Smith-Schuster: JuJu is still looking for his first touchdown and his first 100-yard game as a Chief. With 19-224-0 through four games, he’s currently the WR48 in half-PPR scoring. He’s facing a banged-up Raiders defense, but Smith-Schuster is likely to see a lot of Las Vegas slot corner Nate Hobbs, who’s healthy and has the fourth-highest grade of the 105 cornerbacks PFF has graded. JuJu is a WR4 this week.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: MVS had fewer than 50 receiving yards in each of his first three games with the Chiefs before putting up 3-63-0 last week against the Buccaneers. Valdes-Scantling hasn’t scored a touchdown for Kansas City, and he’s averaging 5.8 targets, 3.3 receptions and 42.0 yards per game. Even with the Raiders banged up at cornerback, MVS is a borderline top-50 receiver this week and would probably need a long TD catch to pay off in fantasy.

Mecole Hardman: Hardman had a season-low 48% snap share in Week 4, while rookie WR Skyy Moore had a season-high 28% snap share. Hardman hasn’t had more than three catches in any game this season, and over the last two weeks he’s drawn two targets and has two catches for six yards. Chicken Little is warning that the Skyy is falling, and it’s about to land on Hardman’s head.

Tight Ends

Darren Waller: In the 2019 and 2020 seasons, when Waller was at the height of his powers, he commanded a massive 25.8% Target share. This year, Waller’s Target share is 16.6% through four games. Call it the Davante Adams Effect. Waller is still an important part of the Las Vegas offense, and he’s still one of the few tight ends you feel good about throwing into a fantasy lineup. But our expectations for the 30-year-old Waller need to be recalibrated.

Travis Kelce: Through four games, Kelce is on pace for 111 receptions, 1,369 yards and 13 touchdowns. Fantasy football’s perennial TE1 gets a Week 5 date with the Raiders, against whom he’s racked up 87-1,226-7 in 16 career games.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos

By: Derek Brown

• DEN -3.5, O/U 43.5
• Colts vs. Broncos Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• It won’t shock anyone, but this game likely crawls as the Colts are only 17th in neutral pace, followed by Denver at 24th.
• The passing volume won’t wow anyone, either. The Colts are tenth in neutral passing rate, which could climb if Jonathan Taylor misses, but Denver is only 17th after four games.

Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan: After four weeks of football, Ryan sits as the QB22 in fantasy, and that’s about where to view him this week as a low-end QB2. Ryan has been a game manager to this point. He is 25th in PFF passing grade with the fourth-lowest big-time throw rate and seventh-lowest aDOT. The matchup is brutal as Denver is sixth in pass defense DVOA with the third-lowest yards per attempt and passing touchdown rate allowed. If the secondary isn’t giving Ryan fits, the Broncos’ pass rush will. Denver is fourth in blitz rate and 12th in pressure rate. Ryan has fallen apart against the blitz, ranking 29th in PFF passing grade and 24th in blitzed passer rating.

Russell Wilson: This is the Russell Wilson breakout game. The Colts are a zone-heavy pass funnel that lends itself to Wilson airing it out this week. Indianapolis is 28th in pass defense DVOA utilizing zone coverage on 61-69% of their cornerbacks’ snaps. Wilson is 12th in yards per attempt and 14th in completion rate and accuracy rating against zone coverage. His play has drastically improved over the last two games. Over that short stretch, he’s tenth in PFF passing grade, eighth in big-time throw rate, and ninth in adjusted completion rate (minimum 25 dropbacks). Start him confidently this week as a top-ten quarterback option.

Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor: has been ruled out for this game.

Nyheim Hines: Hines has played 28-45% of the snaps weekly with a 12.7% Target share. He’s averaged 6.3 touches and 31.1 total yards. He remains one of the league’s best receiving backs, ranking fourth in PFF receiving grade and yards per route run (minimum ten targets). Denver is 16th in DVOA against pass-catching backs with the 12th-highest yards per reception allowed. With Taylor out, Hines could step up as the leader of this backfield. Let’s travel back in time to the pre-Taylor Colts era. In 2018, Hines had four games in which he played 58% of the snaps or higher (averaged 66.7% of the snaps), averaging 14.5 touches (averaged seven carries, 8.5 targets) and 65.2 total yards, with the bulk of his production coming through the air. Denver has the 14th-highest rushing success rate and ninth-highest explosive run rate allowed. The Broncos are 25th or lower in adjusted line yards, second-level yards, and open field yards. My bet is that Hines leads the running back group in usage, with Deon Jackson or Phillip Lindsay working in on early downs. Hines could soak up all of the red zone work in the process. Hines is an RB3 with more love in PPR formats.

Phillip Lindsay: Lindsay probably gets called up from the practice squad for this game. With his role up in the air and a possible split with Jackson impending, he’s unplayable in fantasy. This preseason Lindsay looked like a back that’s cooked. With his 16 preseason rushing attempts, he could only conjure up one missed tackle and 2.19 yards after contact per attempt. You have better options to consider flexing in Week 5.

Deon Jackson: It’s a similar story for the second-year former UDFA. Jackson has 15 career carries with 2.07 yards after contact per attempt and two missed tackles forced. His preseason numbers this year don’t look any more promising either (1.82 yards after contact per attempt). Jackson isn’t worthy of a roster spot, much less a flex start. These middling early down options coupled with Hines should make anyone with Hines feel better about his ability to grab more of the backfield work this week.

Week 4

Melvin Gordon: Gordon put the ball on the turf last week and then seemingly got parked on the bench. Before Week 4, he averaged 14 touches and 60 total yards working in tandem with Javonte Williams. With Williams now out, Gordon looks to be the lead back. His tires seem bald, which doesn’t bode well for Gordon. Among 57 running backs with at least 15 carries, he’s ranked 40th in yards after contact per attempt and 38th in PFF’s elusive rating. He’s managed only one run of 10 plus yards with his 37 carries. Gordon is a low-end RB2/high-end RB3 in a horrible matchup. Indy has been a shutdown unit against the run. They have allowed the seventh-lowest rushing success rate and EPA. They have stonewalled running backs to the second-lowest explosive run rate and sixth-lowest rushing yards per game.

Mike Boone: Last week Boone mixed in with 36% of the snaps, four touches, and 29 total yards. He saw a higher Target share with a higher route run rate than Gordon. This is such a small sample that it could easily be noise. If Boone takes over a larger portion of the passing down work, he could be flex worthy in deep leagues. Indy is 20th in DVOA against receiving backs with the fifth-most receptions and seventh-most receiving yards allowed. This could just be another feather in the cap for Gordon if he garners that work. It would have to be a deep league and dire situation for me to consider playing Boone this week.

Wide Receivers

Michael Pittman: Even after tossing a dud in Week 4, Pittman is the WR14 in fantasy points per game. He’s handled a 23.1% Target share with 24.2% of the team’s air yards as the 31st highest graded wide receiver per PFF (minimum ten targets). Pittman has seen at least nine targets in two of his three games surpassing 70 receiving yards in those contests, so we can chalk up the Week 4 wet fart to being a bump in the road. While the volume should bounce back this week we should temper expectations against a tough secondary with Denver. Pittman will run about 77% of his routes against Patrick Surtain ll and Ronald Darby. Surtain has given up a 57.7% catch rate and 67.1 passer rating. Darby has been even tougher with a 47.1% catch rate and 64.1 passer rating allowed. Surtain could shadow Pittman like he did D.K. Metcalf in Week 1. In that game he followed Metcalf on 76% of his routes limiting him to 35 receiving yards on six targets.

Parris Campbell: It’s not Halloween but Campbell is a ghost masquerading as an NFL receiver. He’s only drawn an 8% Target share and 9% target per route run clip with 0.64 yards per route run. You shouldn’t have Campbell on any rosters at this point, but if you do there is no way that you’re even remotely considering starting him.

Alec Pierce: Despite his 80-yard receiving outing last week, Pierce isn’t startable in any format. While Pittman and Campbell are full-time players in this offense, Pierce is not. He’s only seen a 10.7% Target share this year and hasn’t surpassed a 50% route run rate since Week 1. Last week he split routes with Ashton Dulin and Michael Strachan.

Courtland Sutton: Sutton has been the alpha we thought he would be. He’s the WR13 in fantasy commanding a 27.8% Target share (14th) and 36.3% air yard share (ninth). He’s 19th in yards per route run immediately behind Cooper Kupp (minimum ten targets). He’s tied with Jeudy for the team lead in deep targets. Wilson will chuck it deep this week against a secondary that’s 30th in DVOA against deep passing. Sutton will run about 85% of his routes against Stephon Gilmore and Isaiah Rodgers. Gilmore has allowed a 60.9% catch rate and 79.6 passer rating. Rodgers took over for Brandon Facyson last week. In his career, Rodgers (70 targets) has surrendered a 62.9% catch rate and 78.5 passer rating. Sutton is a top 15 wide receiver.

Jerry Jeudy: Jeudy has two games this year (Week 1 & 4) in which he played a full complement of snaps (due to injury). In those games, he saw an 18.5% Target share with 22% of the team’s air yards. He ran from the slot on 69% of his routes. Jeudy could easily lead the team in receiving this week as he’ll be matching up with one of my favorite corners to target in fantasy, Kenny Moore. Moore has been burnt this year to the tune of a 75% catch rate and 140.8 passer rating. Jeudy is a top 20 wide receiver option in Week 5.

Tight Ends

Mo Alie-Cox: Alie-Cox is the only Colts’ tight end to bother with. Kylen Granson saw four targets last week, but his 41.5% route run rate equals trap. The gentle red zone giant has seen his route run rate climb each week from 35.2% to 63.4% in Week 4. He’s handled a 9.3% Target share with three red zone looks (tenth). He’s been efficient with his targets ranking 14th in yards per route run. Alie-Cox is a solid streaming option against a Broncos’ defense that’s allowed the 11th-highest catch rate to tight ends and the third-most fantasy points to inline tight ends (Alie-Cox, 64.3% inline).

Eric Saubert: The Albert Okwuegbunam dream has expired. Saubert logged an 87.1% route run rate in Week 4. Saubert isn’t a fantasy option with his 4.8% Target share and 0.90 yards per route run.

*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, 4for4, SharpFootball Stats, Rbsdm.com, Football Outsiders, FTN, Rotoviz, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*