Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

By: Derek Brown

• TB -10, O/U 46.5
• Falcons vs. Buccaneers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Expect the Buccaneers to push the pace. They are up to 13th in neutral pace while the Falcons slug along at 20th.
• The Dirty Birds and Arthur Smith are determined to live and die by their ground game with the second-highest neutral rushing rate. With healthier weapons, Tampa Bay is now up to ninth in neutral passing rate. Expect Tom Brady to push that even higher this week.

Quarterbacks

Marcus Mariota: Mariota’s level of play has sharply declined as the season has worn on. He’s 27th in PFF passing grade and 35th in adjusted completion rate. Arthur Smith needs to continue to lean on his ground game this week to move the ball because Mariota could struggle mightily. Tampa Bay has limited opposing passers to the eighth-lowest success rate per dropback, fifth-lowest yards per attempt, and fifth-lowest EPA per dropback. The Buccaneers are 11th in pressure rate, which is concerning because Mariota is eighth in turnover-worthy play rate when pressured. Sit Mariota in Week 5.

Tom Brady: This week, Brady goes full scorched earth. Atlanta’s secondary play has fallen apart. They have yielded the fourth-highest success rate per dropback while also ranking tenth in yards per attempt and 12th in passing touchdown rate. The Falcons are seventh in explosive pass rate allowed. Atlanta has remained a zone-based defense (60% zone for their outside corners). Brady is third in passing accuracy and fourth in completion rate against zone.

Running Backs

Weeks 4

Tyler Allgeier: With Cordarrelle Patterson on the IR, Allgeier takes over as the primary ball carrier. Last week he turned 11 touches into 104 total yards playing a season-high 44% of the snaps. Allgeier split routes with Avery Williams and Keth Smith last week, so while yes, his pass game role will increase, it’s fair to question how much. Allgeier hasn’t been an overly impressive runner to this point, ranking 29th in yards after contact per attempt (minimum 15 carries). He’s forced only three missed tackles on 26 carries while ranking 45th (out of 57 running backs, minimum 15 carries) in PFF’s elusive rating. Allgeier could rack up volume against a run defense with cracks in the pavement. Yes, Tampa has limited back to the fourth-lowest explosive rush rate and 12th-lowest rushing yards per game, but that doesn’t tell the entire story. The Buccaneers also sit at 27th in adjusted line yards, 21st in second-level yards, and eighth in rushing success rate allowed. Allgeier also should enjoy running behind an offensive line that’s second in PFF’s run blocking grades and top-six in adjusted line yards, second-level yards, and open field yards. Allgeier is an RB3 with 15-plus touch upside.

Caleb Huntley: Last week, Huntley worked as the 1B in the backfield behind Allgeier. He logged 22% of the snaps with ten carries and 56 rushing yards. He didn’t factor in the passing game, failing to run a route. Huntley is a breather back for Allgeier. He’s an unimpressive physical specimen with a 4.82 forty time and a burst score below the 40th percentile. Huntley was effective in the preseason. He was sixth in yards after contact per attempt and fifth in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 20 carries). With the Falcons failing to enter the red zone with these two backs, it’s unknown who will get the goal line carries. Still, my best guess would be Allgeier as the passing game and snap share leaned to him, so we can guess Atlanta has more trust in his abilities. Huntley is a stash and hold, but don’t start him this week.

Weeks 1-3

Weeks 4

Leonard Fournette: We need to discuss Fournette’s usage in Week 4. From the splits above, it would appear that Fournette is losing his grip on this backfield, but after only one game of him splitting work with White, I’m inclined to say no. The Buccaneers entered the game with a pretty clear plan to throw the ball and throw often. Tampa Bay passed on 89.8% of their plays and 66.6% in neutral script (Weeks 1-3 62.0% neutral passing rate). One of White’s calling cards is his pass game skills. This could easily have been a way to keep Fournette fresh while leaning into the pass-heavy approach. He dominated the work in Weeks 1-3, never playing less than 76% of the snaps while averaging 22 touches and 97 total yards. He’s been effective with his workload ranking 24th in yards per route run, sixth in evaded tackles, and 21st in yards created per touch. Fournette should reprise his every-down Lenny role this week against a paper-thin run defense. Atlanta is bleeding out the third-highest rushing success rate, second-highest EPA per rush, and 11th-highest explosive run rate.

Rachaad White: Last week, White played a career-high 38% of the snaps with eight touches that he turned into 56 total yards. As I discussed with Fournette, I expect his snap rate to fall closer to the 9-27% range he saw in the first three games, where he averaged 3.4 touches. Stash White but don’t play him.

Wide Receivers

Drake London: London continues to do studly things. He’s commanded a 34.7% Target share (8.2 targets per game) and a 33.2% air yard share. He is PFF’s sixth-highest graded wide receiver, ranking 15th in yards per route run (minimum ten targets). He’s ninth in yards per team pass attempt. London’s production’s biggest issues are Mariota and Atlanta’s passing volume. Because of these concerns and tough corner assignments this week, he’s best viewed as a WR3. He’ll run about 85% of his routes against Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis. Dean has allowed a 45.5% catch rate and 44.9 passer rating. Davis has been easier to get by with a 63.6% catch rate and 115.7 passer rating.

ATL corners vs Mike Evans this Weekpic.twitter.com/wRQtxAHIWB

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) October 5, 2022

Mike Evans: In his two full games played, Evans has finished as the WR16 and WR2 for the week. He handled a 21.5% Target share, 34.1% air yard share, and a whopping 71.4% end zone Target share. He’s top 24 among wide receivers despite the missed time in deep targets and red zone looks. What looked like an area of strength entering the season has quickly dissolved into a point of attack for the opposition. This is the sad dilemma that Atlanta’s corners find themselves in. A.J. Terrell and Casey Hayward have been abysmal. Terrell has a 68% catch rate and a 127.7 passer rating in coverage. Hayward is only marginally better, with a 61.1% catch rate and 91.7 passer rating. It’s possible Terrell shadows Evans, this week. As bad as Terrell has been, he has been much better in shadow coverage. In Weeks 3 & 4, he followed D.K. Metcalf and Amari Cooper on 80-82% of their routes, allowing a combined five receptions (13 targets) and 55 scoreless receiving yards. Tampa Bay has moved Evans into the slot in previous shadow situations to free him up. Terrell won’t follow him into the slot, as he has logged ten slot snaps all season. With Trevon Diggs to deal with in Week 1, Evans ran out of the slot on 39.1% of his snaps with 28.6% of his target volume from the slot. Overall this season, he’s seen 33.3% of his targets from the slot. Evans is a strong WR1 this week.

Chris Godwin: Godwin returned to an 83% snap share last week with a 19.2% Target share. He ran a route on 84.9% of Brady’s dropbacks, drawing a target on 22% of his routes. With Evans and Godwin separating from the rest of the receiver group in Target share last week, look for Brady to get him going in Week 5. He’ll run about 78% of his routes from the slot against rookie Dee Alford who has a 66.7% catch rate and 60.2 passer rating. Godwin ranks 34th in PFF, receiving grades (minimum ten targets). Godwin is a strong WR2 this week.

Julio Jones: Jones is a must-sit. He’s still working his way back from injury. Last week he only logged a 32.1% route run rate and a 3.8% Target share. Maybe both climb this week, but it’s too risky to bank on that in your fantasy lineup.

Russell Gage: After crushing as Brady’s security blanket in Week 3, Gage played a part-time role splitting routes (62.3% route run rate) with Jones and falling in as a distant third in the pecking order behind Godwin and Evans. Despite the advantageous matchup, Gage is nothing more than a dart throw WR5/6 who could see his routes cut further if Jones plays more.

Tight Ends

Kyle Pitts: Pitts has been ruled out. No other ATL tight end is worth rostering this week.

Cade Otton: Cameron Brate has been ruled out (concussion). Last week Otton had a 54.7% route run rate with a 7.7% Target share. He should take over the primary pass-catching duties among the tight ends. This is a deep league or DFS flier play, but the matchup is juicy, and Otton could see more targets if Evans gets blanketed. Atlanta has conceded the third-most receiving yards to tight ends and sixth-most fantasy points to inline tight ends (Otton 59.6% inline).

Tennessee Titans vs. Washington Commanders

By: Derek Brown

• TEN -2, O/U 43
• Titans vs. Commanders Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• This game will challenge for the slowest pace for the week. Washington is 25th in neutral pace, followed by Tennessee, which is 31st.
• This contest will also have a ton of rushing volume as Tennessee is eighth in neutral rushing rate with Washington close behind at 12th. The matchup could dictate that the Commanders take to the air more, but this is provided they can keep Carson Wentz upright.

Quarterbacks

Ryan Tannehill: Tannehill is an upside QB2 this week. He’s been playing better than his QB22 ranking in fantasy would suggest. He’s been a QB1 in 50% of his games so far this season (QB11, QB8). He’s 15th in PFF passing grade, second in adjusted completion rate, and seventh in yards per attempt (minimum 25 dropbacks). Washington has been giving this year to opposing quarterbacks sitting at fifth in EPA per dropback, fifth in yards per attempt, and first in passing touchdown rate allowed. The Commanders have also been blitz happy ranking ninth in blitz rate which should help Tannehill this week. Tannehill is seventh in PFF passing grade against the blitz, 14th in adjusted completion rate, and second in aDOT. If Washington plans to bring the heat, Tannehill will look to launch it.

Carson Wentz: After flying out of the starting blocks with a two-game heater, Wentz has cooled off with back-to-back games outside the top 24 fantasy quarterbacks (QB30, QB27). His issues stem from pressure, as he’s outside the top 25 quarterbacks in under-pressure accuracy and pressured completion rate. Wentz can dice up this secondary if the Commanders can keep him upright. Tennessee is 26th in pass defense DVOA with the second-highest passing touchdown rate and yards per attempt allowed. Tennessee is 13th in pressure rate, but they are only 24th in blitz rate, so Washington has a chance to give Wentz some clean pockets. Wentz is reincarnating past fantasy memories of Blake Bortles. The fantasy results can be tasty, but please don’t watch the film, or you’ll never play him again. Wentz is a frightening QB2 option that could thread the needle into another top 12 fantasy week.

Running Backs

Derrick Henry: Last week Henry showed yet again no elite run defense can contain him after he dropped 114 rushing yards against the Colts. He gets another chance to prove it this week. Washington has the lowest rushing success rate allowed in the NFL. They are also fourth in rush EPA and 11th in explosive run rate. It’s a brutal assignment for Henry. Henry has averaged 21 touches and 99.3 total yards per game with a new found wrinkle to his game. Over the last two games he’s averaged 5.5 targets (25% Target share), four receptions, and 45.5 receiving yards. Since Week 3 his route run rate has been 44.4% which is a 10% increase from the first two games and a 4% increase from last season. If this pass game usage keeps up, Henry is already a matchup proof weekly RB1 with his volume and touchdown equity, but this would raise his weekly floor and ceiling.

Weeks 3-4

Antonio Gibson: Gibson is the RB21 in fantasy, but don’t confuse that with him being anything close to resembling a solid RB2 start this week. His RB27 and RB34 rankings over the last two weeks are more indicative of his current standing in the RB landscape. With Brian Robinson possibly returning this week, he’s an even riskier RB3 play. Over the last two weeks, Gibson has lost the pass game role to McKissic again. He’s averaged an unproductive 14.5 touches and 51.5 total yards. He takes on a Tennessee run defense that is 11th in adjusted line yards and second-level yards but has been prone to giving up the big play. They have allowed the third-lowest rushing success rate and the fifth-highest explosive run rate. Sadly Gibson doesn’t have a chance to break a big play this week. He’s 53rd in juke rate, 52nd in yards created per touch, and has yet to record a breakaway run. If Robinson gets into the mix this week, Gibson is a low-end RB3.

J.D. McKissic: McKissic’s value is found in the passing game. This week doesn’t look like a good spot to lean on that role. Tennessee is third in DVOA against running back through the air. They are 15th in targets faced to running backs but have limited backs to the sixth-fewest receiving yards and second-lowest yards per reception.

Brian Robinson: Robinson’s status is still up in the air for Week 5, but even if he’s active, he shouldn’t be in your fantasy lineup. Until we get clarity on his spot in the pecking order, he’s a blindfolded dart throw that’s likely to bounce off the wall and end up in your skull.

Wide Receivers

Robert Woods: Woods might be the WR56 in weekly fantasy scoring, but he’s shown some life over the last three weeks. Since Week 3, he’s logged WR42 and WR27 finishes. In two of his last three games, he’s walked away with games in which he surpassed 1.8 yards per route run. He’s seen a 20% Target share this season with PFF’s 29th-highest receiving grade (34th in yards per route run, minimum ten targets). With Burks out, the target tree is pruned, and Woods could see a small uptick in work. Woods will run about 67% of his routes against William Jackson and Kendall Fuller. Woods could turn back the clock this week and remind the fantasy community of his golden years in a Rams uniform. Jackson has allowed an 82.4% catch rate and 154.7 passer rating. Fuller has been cooked with a 68.0% catch rate and 137.5 passer rating in coverage. Woods is a WR3/4 this week with the upside for a WR2 finish. As crazy as it sounds, if you need a home run cut to put your team over the top this week, Woods could be your guy.

Treylon Burks: Burks (toe) has been ruled out.

Welcome to Terry McLaurin Week. pic.twitter.com/v2nkM8rQIX

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) October 6, 2022

Terry McLaurin: Before last week’s WR80 finish with Wentz imploding, McLaurin had been the WR37 or higher in every game. McLaurin has not been a target hog as his Target share has dwindled to 16.2% (57th), as the team has pegged him as a deep threat (15.6 aDOT, sixth-highest). He is second in the NFL in deep targets and sixth in air yards. This is the money role this week against a secondary ranked dead last in DVOA at defending the deep ball and 25th in explosive pass rate. He’ll run about 81% of his routes against the trio of Kristian Fulton, Terrance Mitchell, and Caleb Farley. Mitchell and Farley split the role opposite Fulton in Week 4. Fulton has been torched this year with an 80% catch rate and 158.3 passer rating. Mitchell has been equally flammable with a 63.6% catch rate and 130.2 passer rating allowed. Farley is just trying to blend seamlessly into the mediocrity of this depth chart with a 66.7% catch rate and 130.2 passer rating in coverage. McLaurin is a WR2 this week who could finish with WR1 numbers if he and Wentz go crazy with the deep ball.

Jahan Dotson: Dotson (hamstring) has been ruled out.

Curtis Samuel: Samuel has been a PPR machine with at least seven targets in every game as the WR19 in fantasy. He has a 22.2% Target share and a 23% target per route run rate. He’s eighth in YAC with his suboptimal 4.0 aDOT. He’s a WR3 that gets a bump in PPR formats. If he gets in the endzone with his projected volume, he could finish close to his Week 1 & 2 output (WR13, WR12). Samuel has seen four red zone targets (23rd) this season. This week he’ll run about 72% of his routes against Roger McCreary, who has given up an 82.8% catch rate and 110.2 passer rating. Samuel has dealt with an illness this week, but he’s not listed on the injury report and practiced in full on Friday.

Tight Ends

TEN TEs: There are plenty of streamers in the sea. No one needs to go fishing here for a plug-and-play tight end. Tennessee has incorporated three tight ends into the mix this year. Washington is also ninth in DVOA, giving up the 11th-lowest catch rate and receiving yards to the position.

Logan Thomas: Thomas finally crossed the 70% route run rate threshold (73.3%) in Week 4. With his 12.0% Target share, he’s only the TE17 in fantasy points per game. After opening the year with encouraging efficiency stats, his yards per route run has dipped to 0.91. He still garnered high-value usage with two deep targets (seventh) and three red zone looks (tenth). This matchup against the Titans is a reason to snag him off the streamer pile and plug him in. Tennessee is dead last in DVOA against tight ends yielding the highest catch rate and fourth-highest receiving yards and yards per reception. If he’s good to go, Thomas is a high-end TE2/low-end TE1. There’s some worry, though, as he popped up with a DNP on Friday (calf).

Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

By: Derek Brown

• JAC -7, O/U 43.5
• Texans vs. Jaguars Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Houston has been pushing the pace and passing rate this year in close games, ranking fifth in both categories.
• The Jaguars have sadly been a middling affair in neutral pace and passing rate, ranking 19th, and 17th, respectively. If Jacksonville jumps out to a lead, they have no issues leaning on the ground game as they have run the ball on 56.6% of their plays (ninth-highest) when up by at least eight points.

Quarterbacks

Davis Mills: There’s no reason even in the deepest of 2QB leagues to consider playing Mills. He has only thrown for multiple touchdowns in two games, yet to eclipse 250 yards passing in any game, and hasn’t finished higher than QB17 in any week. Jacksonville is seventh in pass defense DVOA with the 11th-lowest passing touchdown rate conceded.

Trevor Lawrence: Lawrence is a mid QB2. He’s the QB16 in fantasy points per game, but his fantasy stock is shinier than his real-life play. He’s 26th in PFF passing grade, 20th in big-time throw rate, and 20th in yards per attempt. Lawrence has been operating in play-it-safe mode, which has also led to him ranking ninth in adjusted completion rate and 27th in aDOT. Houston has conceded the tenth-highest yards per attempt and ninth-highest explosive pass rate, but they have been tough in the touchdown department (eighth-lowest passing touchdown rate). Lawrence has directed an offense that’s 24th in explosive pass rate, so he likely won’t take enough chances to take advantage here.

Running Backs

Weeks 4

Dameon Pierce: Pierce is a straight baller. It warms my heart that Houston allows this talented player to showcase his skills at the highest level. Something he was never afforded at Florida. After taking over this backfield in Week 3, he has averaged 63.5% of the snaps played, averaging 21 touches and 120 total yards. He’s been the RB9 and RB5 over the last two games. He’s fourth in yards after contact per attempt and fifth in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 15 carries). Before Miles Sanders dominated this run defense, Jacksonville allowed the lowest rushing success rate in the NFL, fifth-lowest explosive run rate, and lowest rushing yards per game. This is more indicative of the matchup Pierce is staring down. Houston’s offensive line has surprised, ranking 15th in adjusted line yards and ninth in open field yards, but they aren’t the Eagles. Pierce is a rock solid RB2 that should see around 20 touches with sprinkled-in pass game usage.

Rex Burkhead: At this point, Burkhead’s pass game usage is shriveling up, and his early down role is non-existent. He should be cut loose to the waiver wire.

Weeks 3-4

James Robinson: Robinson’s declining usage and efficiency is worrisome. It’s something I noticed last Sunday when I was last second peering through stats which led me to leave him out of my DFS lineups. Robinson has seen his snap share decrease in each of the last three weeks down to 47% last week. His yards after contact per attempt have dropped each week with a beautiful 4.18 in Week 1 but all the way down to 2.25 in Week 4. This falls in line with other efficiency metrics that raise big time red flags. Robinson is 40th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 15 carries), 41st in juke rate, and 44th in yards created per touch. Over the last three weeks Robinson has averaged 17.7 touches and 74.3 total yards. The Texans offer a good bounceback opportunity for Robinson. Houston is 29th in rush defense DVOA permitting the tenth-highest rushing success rate, second-highest explosive run rate, and second-most rushing yards per game. Robinson is a shaky RB2 with RB1 upside in Week 5.

Go trade for Travis Etienne NOW.

This backfield usage could flip fast.

James Robinson’s snaps have dropped in three consecutive weeks.

His efficiency metrics are also raising big red flags right now.

Yards after contact/att each week:
4.18 > 2.96 > 2.71 > 2.25 ?

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) October 6, 2022

Travis Etienne: Etienne looks like a running back on the rise. His snap rate has increased in each of the last three weeks (51% in Week 4). He has also seen his yards after contact per attempt slowly nudge up from 1.67 to 2.63 over the last three games. Overall he’s 24th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 15 carries), 29th in juke rate, and 12th in yards created per touch. Over the last three games, he’s averaged 12 touches and 53.3 total yards. With the rushing, routes, and red zone edge all still belonging to Robinson, Etienne is an RB3 with tangible upside in Week 5 if their usage continues to flip.

Wide Receivers

Brandin Cooks: Cooks’ performance this season has the trappings of a veteran wide receiver that’s finally hitting the wall. While he’s seen a 26.1% Target share (20th) and 26.3% target per route run rate, he’s WR40 with declining efficiency metrics. Yes, dealing with a 69.4% catchable target rate (65th) doesn’t help, but Cooks is 54th in yards per route run and 63rd in PFF’s receiving grade (minimum ten targets). Even with all of this in consideration, Cooks can still produce well in any given week because of the volume he sees. He has finished as the WR24 or better twice already this season. This is one of those weeks. He’ll run about 77% of his routes against Tyson Campbell and Shaquill Griffin. Campbell has allowed a 61.9% catch rate and 93.7 passer rating. Griffin is having a tough season giving up a 62.5% catch rate and 126.3 passer rating.

Nico Collins: Collins is a WR5/6 or low-end flex play. He’s only seen a 15.2% Target share producing 1.82 yards per route run (31st). As the field stretcher with a bad quarterback and minimal red zone usage (one red zone target), the chances of finishing the week with a touchdown are slim. Also, add that Jacksonville is first in DVOA against deep passing. He’ll run about 93% of his routes against Griffin and Campbell.

Christian Kirk: Don’t take Kirk out of the slot Jacksonville. That’s what happened last week with Zay Jones out. With Jones out of the lineup, the team tossed Jamal Agnew into the slot (62.5%) while Kirk ran 44.4% of his routes (48.1% slot) on the perimeter. Before Week 4, Kirk hadn’t seen less than a 67.5% slot rate in any week. Provided Jones is back this week; Kirk should reprise his slot role. Kirk has excelled as the team’s number one from the slot with a 27.9% Target share (13th) and 29.3% air yard share. He’s 13th in yards per route run and the WR11 in fantasy points per game. This week he’ll run most of his routes against Desmond King, who has given up a 66.7% catch rate and 98.6 passer rating. Kirk is a top 15 wideout.

Zay Jones: Jones has been practicing in a limited fashion (ankle) all week. Jones has a 22.6% Target share (28th) and a 26.7% target per route run rate (26th). He’s been a Lawrence favorite in the red zone with six red zone targets which is ninth-most among wide receivers. Jones is a WR3/4 who will run about 60% of his routes against Steven Nelson and Derek Stingley. Nelson has allowed a 58.8% catch rate and 97.9 passer rating. Stingley has given up a 63.3% catch rate and 88.2 passer rating.

Marvin Jones: Jones isn’t playable this year. He’s finished higher than WR59 only once. While he gets points with the Jaguars for locker room presence, those don’t cross over to fantasy football. He’s only garnered a 14.7% Target share while limping to 0.99 yards per route run (78th).

Tight Ends

HOU TEs: Bad offense and the tight end routes are being split three ways between Jordan Akins, O.J. Howard, and Mason Schreck. No thanks.

Evan Engram: Engram is a matchup-based streaming tight end. He’s seen a 12.4% Target share (19th) with nauseating efficiency (27th in yards per route run) and a minimal red zone role (one target), but the opponent is giving. Houston is 20th in DVOA, conceding the fifth-highest yards per reception and seventh-most receiving touchdowns to tight ends.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Carolina Panthers

By: Derek Brown

• SF -6.5, O/U 39
• 49ers vs. Panthers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Panthers would be a pace and passing volume wonderland if they didn’t suck so much. Carolina is first and 12th in neutral pace and passing rate.
• It’s the same old song and dance for the 49ers, who are 29th in neutral pace with the seventh-highest rushing rate in tight games.

Quarterbacks

Jimmy Garoppolo: Yuck. That was my first response after typing the quarterback names for this contest. You can likely find better options to plug in over a quarterback that’s finished as the QB22 and QB28 over the last two weeks. Carolina has conceded the 11th-lowest passing touchdown rate and ninth-lowest success rate per dropback. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging 15.4 fantasy points per game (19th) against this defense. Garoppolo is a bottom-of-the-barrel QB2.

Baker Mayfield: No. Just no. Mayfield, scarry enough, has been even worse than Garoppolo. He hasn’t finished higher than QB21 in any of his last three games (QB21, QB26, QB28). He has only one game over 200 passing yards and hasn’t thrown for multiple scores in any game. So. No. Just no.

Running Backs

Jeff Wilson: Since assuming the starting role for the 49ers, Wilson has averaged 17.7 touches, 94.4 total yards, and 62.6% of the snaps. He’s finished as the RB15, RB25, and RB21 over that three-game span. He’s performed well with the volume, ranking 13th in evaded tackles, 19th in juke rate, and 15th in breakaway run rate. The Panthers are a decent matchup for Wilson. They are 18th in rushing success rate and 17th in explosive run rate allowed. Carolina is 17th in second-level yards and 19th in open field yards. Opposing teams have racked up the sixth-most carries and the seventh-most rushing yards against this defense. The 49ers should crush the Panthers like a grape which would help Wilson as they are tenth in positive script rushing rate. Wilson is a low-end RB2.

Christian McCaffrey: McCaffrey is the RB5 in fantasy points per game quietly. With the Panthers’ stink permeating the air weekly, his continued bell-cow role and prowess is getting lost in translation. McCaffrey is first in opportunity share and fifth in weight opportunity averaging 19.3 touches and 102 total yards. He’s ninth in yards per route run, first in Target share (19.6%), 12th in breakaway runs, and fifth in yards created. Now that we have discussed how awesome McCaffrey is, we can discuss how great the 49ers’ defense is. San Francisco is a frightening matchup for running backs with the second-lowest rush success rate, the third-lowest explosive run rate, and a top-five ranking in DVOA against receiving backs. McCaffrey is an every-week RB1, but it’s good to keep your expectations in check this week.

Wide Receivers

Deebo Samuel: Samuel is the WR17 in fantasy points per game, with his wide-back role helping his fantasy output. He’s averaged 4.8 carries and 28.3 rushing yards per game. Through the air, he’s seen a 29.3% Target share (tenth) and 31.5% target per route run rate (13th) while ranking 15th in yards per route run. When Samuel isn’t taking handoffs, he’ll run about 65% of his routes against Jaycee Horn and Donte Jackson. Horn has allowed a 46.7% catch rate and 26.3 passer rating. Jackson has been more pliable with a 64.7% catch rate and 86.2 passer rating. Samuel is a weekly top 15 wide receiver.

Brandon Aiyuk: Since Garoppolo has been back under center, Aiyuk has a 22.2% Target share and 31.2% of the team’s air yards. Those numbers sound much better than they are because it equates to six targets and 38 receiving yards per game. Aiyuk has been the WR39 and WR50 since Week 3. He’s a weekly WR4 without any injuries to this depth chart. He’ll run about 77% of his routes against Horn and Jackson.

D.J. Moore: Moore has been hamstrung by pitiful quarterback play his entire career. This might be the worst of the lot, though. He’s been unable to get anything going with his 25.9% Target share having to deal with a 51.7% catchable target rate (90th). It’s sad. Moore is 31st in PFF, receiving grade immediately ahead of Chris Godwin and Justin Jefferson. His ceiling with Mayfield this season has been as a WR3. He’ll line up opposite Emmanuel Moseley and Charvarius Ward on about 68% of his routes. Moseley has allowed a 70.6% catch rate and 91.5 passer rating. Ward has been even better with a 60% catch rate and 77.1 passer rating in coverage.

Robby Anderson: Anderson’s Week 1 explosion was fool’s gold. He hasn’t finished higher than WR64 since. He should be living on the waiver wire.

Tight Ends

George Kittle: While public outrage is real over Kyle Pitts‘ usage, I sit here and scream into my hands weekly over Kittle’s misuse. Since Kyle Shanahan allows a talent like Kittle to only see 4.5 targets per game since his return, I’ll join in with the masses that say he’s an overrated head coach. Yes, Kittle is an elite blocker. We all get it, but there should be no game plan in existence that doesn’t feature Kittle as a primary piece in the passing attack. It’s criminal. I’ll leave the candle burning for a Kittle breakout game this week because the matchup calls for it. Good outside corners for the Panthers. Check. A defense that’s susceptible to tight ends. Check. Carolina is 26th in DVOA against tight ends allowing the second-highest catch rate and seventh-most receiving touchdowns. They are 31st in targets faced to the tight end position, so they haven’t been tested enough for this to be a screaming must-play Kittle spot. It still is, though. Play Kittle.

CAR TEs: If D.J. Moore is barely playable, we’re surely not dipping into the pool of meh that is the Panthers’ tight end room.