New York Jets vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

By: Andrew Erickson

• PIT -3.5, O/U 40.5
• Jets vs. Steelers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Quarterbacks

Zach Wilson: The Jets second-year quarterback will make his season debut after suffering an injury in the preseason. But I would temper expectations substantially if you think that the Joe Flacco offensive game plan – No.1 in the NFL in pass attempts – will carry over with Wilson at QB. Wilson’s most pass attempts in a game last season was 42. He averaged just under 30. Flacco is averaging just under 52 attempts per game. Expect the Jets to try and establish the ground game, so leave Wilson on waivers in 1QB leagues.

Mitchell Trubisky: Trubisky ranks as a bottom-10 passer in EPA this season, and has yet to crack the top-16 weekly fantasy QBs in any game as the Steelers starting quarterback. The Jets pass defense ranks 30th in pass EPA, but that’s just more of a reason to have faith in some of the Steeler WRs getting there for fantasy purposes – not necessarily a vote of confidence to view Trubisky as a legitimate streamer. The rushing upside he flashed in Chicago has been non-existent in Pittsburgh. He hasn’t rushed for more than 10 yards in any game this season. Also has yet to pass for over 210 yards.

Running Backs

Week 3

Najee Harris: Najee Harris (80%, 47) dominated snaps over Jaylen Warren (20%, 12) in Week 3. He also out-touched him 18 to 5. Although Warren looked explosive in his limited touches compiling 30 rushing yards on just four carries. Harris rushed 15 times for 56 yards. Considering Harris’ workload and injury entering the season, Warren needs to be stashed. He’d likely be an immediate plug-in play fantasy RB2 should Harris miss anytime…even in the Steelers’ uninspiring offense. In Week 4 versus the Jets, Harris is a backend fantasy RB1 as he continues to get the necessary volume to score fantasy points. But be warned that his receiving usage – 48% route participation in Week 3 – has decreased tremendously from last season, making him more dependent on rushing production. Not ideal for a running back that ranks second-to-last in rushing yards over expectation per attempt (-1.14).

Breece Hall: The Jets rookie RB saw massive target volume over Michael Carter in Week 3. He out-snapped Carter for the 1st time all season 51% to 49% and out-targeted Carter 11 to 2 because he got snaps during the 2-minute drill. The Jets RBs’ carries were still split 8 to 11 in favor of Carter, but both guys rushed for 39 yards Buy Hall now before his massive breakout game. It’s coming. Especially as the Jets’ schedule eases up during the second half of the year. 9-plus targets for a rookie RB in two of his first three NFL games should not be overlooked. Neither is a Week 3 14% air yards share or 23% Target share from running back. As for what to do with Hall in Week 4, I don’t mind him as an RB3 or FLEX-play. Pittsburgh has allowed the 6th-most fantasy points to RBs to open the season allowing five different RBs to surpass at least 47 rushing yards against them. Hall ranks sixth in yards after contact per attempt this season and has averaged 5.9 yards per carry. And like I mentioned earlier, Zach Wilson coming back as the team’s starting quarterback calls for the Jets to run the ball more than they have at any point this season.

Michael Carter: Carter hasn’t been as efficient as Hall this season on the ground – 3.4 yards per carry, 31st in yards after contact per attempt – so we may slowly be seeing a change of the guard atop the Jets RB depth chart. It’s hard to trust him knowing his usage is down, especially as a receiver, with Hall dominating the snaps, targets and routes run in Week 3.

Wide Receivers

Diontae Johnson: Diontae Johnson owns a 33% Target share (5th) through the first 3 weeks of the season. No other Steelers WR has higher than an 18% Target share (Chase Claypool). He has a super-high floor every week, but no ceiling attached to Mitchell Trubisky. It does work in Johnson’s favor that the Jets are tied for the league-lead in TDs allowed to WRs (2/game) and overall passing TD percentage. As the team’s target hog he has a solid chance of hitting paydirt.

Chase Claypool: Claypool’s playing usage cannot get any better. He ran a route on 100% of dropbacks in Week 3 and finished with 6 targets for the third straight week. But with an aDOT of 7.9 (12th-lowest) and 7.2 yards per reception (2nd-lowest), there’s virtually no value attached to any of these opportunities Claypool is seeing. The big slot WR’s air yards share (16%) ranks fourth on the team. Leave him on the bench.

George Pickens: Pickens saw his Target share boost to 22% in Week 3, after Mitchell Trubisky vowed to get him more involved. That Target share was higher than Claypool has seen in any game this season and it came on his lowest snap share (76%) of the season. His target increase also came at the expense of TE Pat Freiermuth (13% Target share). Pickens is worth holding to see if his involvement in the offense continues to grow, but still too risky to play even with the matchup on paper. Because the Jets actually have two solid cornerbacks on the perimeter between D.J. Reed Jr. and first-round pick Sauce Gardner. Reed is allowing the league’s second-lowest passer rating in coverage (16.0). Gardner is being targeted on just 12% of his routes covered.

Garrett Wilson: Garrett Wilson seems to get banged up in every game he plays, but that doesn’t stop him from producing. He missed a few drives after taking a big shot in Week 3 – 63% snap share, 54% route participation – but still finished with 10 targets as Joe Flacco threw the ball 52 times. There’s no denying that Wilson (23% Target share) has been Flacco’s guy over the past three weeks, despite not running a full share of routes. He’s locked up a full-time role on offense which should alleviate some concerns that a change at QB will do to the target pecking order. But there’s no guarantee that even as good as Wilson has shown that he is… Zach Wilson will target him at the same rate as Flacco. There’s also a chance that the Jets try to be more run-heavy without a DGAF quarterback under center. But even so, I’d rather take that risk than sit the uber-talented Wilson versus a Steelers defense that has allowed four different WRs to surpass 95 receiving yards and score TDs in their first three games.

Elijah Moore: You should definitely buy low on Elijah Moore who is still operating as the No. 1 WR on the Jets from a usage standpoint based on 95% route particiaption in Week 3 – and because he has some prior built-in chemistry with his second-year QB Zach Wilson. A QB switch could be the kickstart the talented second-year WR needs. Not to mention, Moore is coming off a game where he saw crazy usage downfield with over 180 air yards and four deep targets. The upside is there for him to deliver the next two weeks in favorable spots versus the Steelers and Dolphins. Both teams rank inside the top-10 in fantasy points and receiving yards allowed to WRs this season.

Corey Davis: The veteran came back to irrelevance in Week 3, commanding just 5 targets for a 10% Target share. He has seen fewer targets than Breece Hall through three games. That could change with Zach Wilson under center, but I’d need to see it first before I’d consider playing Davis in any fantasy football lineup.

Tight Ends

Pat Freiermuth: After a disappearing act last Thursday night, I expect Pat Freiermuth to get back on track. He still owns a 20% Target share on the year which ranks 5th among TEs this season.

Tyler Conklin: There’s a chance that Conklin fails to keep up his unbelievable pace from the start of the season, if the Jets do indeed take the air out of the ball and dial back the pass attempts. His role as the primary pass-catching tight end in the Jets offense doesn’t project to change even with C.J. Uzomah back in the fold, but expecting him to see seven-plus targets for a fourth straight week is probably not smart. He’s fine as a streamer off waivers if you don’t have another option based on his 17% Target share and top-12 route participation. And I will say the matchup versus Pittsburgh does seem to favor the burly tight end as two TEs the Steelers have faced this season (Hayden Hurst, David Njoku) both averaged nine targets.

Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens

By: Andrew Erickson

• BUF -3.5, O/U 52
• Bills vs. Ravens Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen: If you can find Josh Allen passing props set under 300 passing yards, you expose them with the OVER. He has at least 297 passing yards in three straight games and the Ravens pass defense is horrible. Most passing yards allowed this season (353.3 per game).

Lamar Jackson: The Ravens quarterback leads the NFL in passing touchdowns (10) and passer rating. And also just happens to rank fifth in the NFL in rushing yards. With an average of four TDs scored per week and back-to-back QB1 finishes, Lamar Jackson is staking his claim as the No. 1 quarterback in fantasy football here in Week 4. Buffalo’s defense showed signs of weakness in Week 3 versus the Dolphins as they dealt with several injuries on defense. Tua Tagovailoa completed 72% of his passes for 10.3 yards per attempt. He was a perfect 3-for-3 throwing 20-plus yards downfield. Jackson ranks third in the NFL in deep-ball rate.

Running Backs

J.K. Dobbins: J.K. Dobbins played fewer snaps than Justice Hill (48% versus 43%) in his season debut totaling seven carries for 23 yards with 2 catches for 17 yards. Hill looked the part of the more explosive back (six carries for 60 yards) suggesting we have an RB committee at hand till the team turns the backfield over to Dobbins. Exercise patience. The Ravens have shown zero willingness to feature any RB at any point this season, and the Bills defense has been stingy against the run. Second-fewest rushing yards allowed per game and under 2.8 yards per carry to opposing RBs. What does work in Dobbins’ favor as fantasy RB3 is that he did earn both red-zone carries for the Ravens in Week 3, including a carry from the 6-yard line.

Devin Singletary: Devin Singletary tied Stefon Diggs with a team-leading…11 TARGETS in Week 3 (19% Target share). Clearly, there is a much bigger emphasis on getting these Bills RBs involved as pass catchers with James Cook and Zack Moss combining for 6 more targets. Even with other seeing work, Singletary operated as the RB1 overall with 18 overall touches and 20 opportunities on a 59% opportunity share. Moss/Cook combined for just 10 opportunities, with each playing fewer than 20% of the snaps. Singletary is a low-end RB2 option with the Bills boasting the week’s highest implied team total. High probability he finds the end zone after seeing three carries inside the 10-yard line in Week 3. Ravens have also shown a willingness to give up production through the air to RBs, facing the second-most targets to the position.

Wide Receivers

Stefon Diggs: The Bills target pecking order is different from last season, with almost all players seeing some kind of opportunity in the offense. Except for Stefon Diggs, who is operating as the clear alpha in Buffalo’s pass-first offense. His 29% Target share ranks 12th and his 38% air yards share ranks 13th among all receivers. Doesn’t get much simpler than starting him against Baltimore’s secondary that has allowed the most catches and yards to opposing WRs this season.

Gabe Davis: Gabriel Davis’ role in the Bill offense is top-notch. He ran a route on 96% of dropbacks in Week 3 on a bummed ankle, but the targets weren’t there. Just six targets, which ranked fourth on the team. But you should buy the dip. Let DeVonta Smith‘s high-end route participation in a high-powered offense be a reminder that these types of players don’t stay quiet for very long even if they are coming off a bad game. Nobody would be batting an eye at Big Gabe had he not dropped a touchdown versus the Dolphins. Start him. 

Isaiah McKenzie: WR Isaiah McKenzie continues to split slot usage with Jamison Crowder – 56% route participation in Week 3 – but he continues to stay heavily involved whenever he is on the field. 22% target rate per route run in Week 3 and two TDs in three games played. He’s a FLEX with upside in a high-scoring environment.

Rashod Bateman: Bateman was extraordinarily efficient through the first two weeks of the season, making big plays despite not having an every-down role on offense. The production was not sustainable based on how much he was playing and it finally caught up with him in Week 3. He played 62% of the snaps – but didn’t score and saw just four targets. But he was still super efficient – two catches for 59 yards. And his 79% route participation was actually an increase from Weeks 1-2 (72%). Anytime you can buy low on a WR attached to Lamar Jackson, you do it very willingly. Bateman currently ranks third in the NFL in yards per route run (3.11) among WRs with at least 15 targets. Start him as fantasy WR3 against the Bills defense that has allowed two different WRs to surpass 100 receiving yards this season .

Tight Ends

Mark Andrews: Mark Andrews doesn’t just lead all tight ends in Target share…he leads the ENTIRE NFL through three weeks with an absurd 37% Target share. A banged up Bills secondary won’t have many answers for stopping the No.1 overall-ranked tight end for Week 4.

Dawson Knox: Knox owns just a 9% Target share on the season. The Bills tight end is nothing more than a boom-bust TD-reliant asset at this point. His route participation isn’t elite as it was last season and his target rate per route run dipped under 10% in Week 3.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Houston Texans

By: Andrew Erickson

• LAC -5, O/U 44.5
• Chargers vs. Texans Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert: This is a decent spot for Justin Herbert to get back on track. Obviously the rib injury is a concern as is losing starting left tackle Ra’Shawn Slater. The Texans ranks fifth in pressure rate and third in lowest passer rating faced (66.6). And Herbert will be without WR Keenan Allen making him more of a back-end fantasy QB1 than a locked-and-loaded top-7 option.

Davis Mills: The Texans quarterback has been horrible to start this season. He ranks dead last in passing EPA (-23.6). Even in 2QB-formats, I’d consider sitting him on the bench. Even against a banged-up Chargers defense. His 58.5% completion rate from a clean pocket (3rd-worst) tells you all you need to know. Even if LA isn’t generating pressure without Joey Bosa, Mills probably won’t take advantage.

Running Backs

Week 3

Austin Ekeler: Austin Ekeler‘s usage has not been great this season. His Week 3 snap rate (56%) matched his season-long average as he continues to lose snaps to a combination of Joshua Kelley and Sony Michel. He had just four carries for 5 yards in Week 3. And for the second straight week, he lost red-zone opportunities to one of his backups. Two of Kelley’s three touches came inside the Jaguars’ 20-yard line. But like in Week 2, Ekeler racked up a ton of receptions – 8 catches for 48 yards – to salvage his fantasy day. Even so, the constant effort to get guys like Michel and Kelley involved might hurt Ekeler’s fantasy value in the long term. His overall volume won’t be the same as last season when he scored 20 TDs. But Week 4’s matchup versus the Texans is juicy, as their defense cannot stop the run. No team has allowed more rushing yards per game (202.3) than Houston. And it’s by a wide margin compared to the second-worst team (Chicago Bears, 157). So I’d be looking to sell high after this game if possible. But don’t pass up a deal if you can get one done this week. Can’t forget that Chargers stud tackle Ra’Shawn Slater is out for the season. And the Chargers are going to struggle in future matchups to create rushing lanes as they rank 31st in yards created before contact. Luckily the Texans are the exact cure, as their defensive line ranks 31st in yards allowed before contact. A true battle of two movable objects.

Dameon Pierce: The defensive line that ranks 32nd in yards allowed before contact belongs to the Los Angeles Chargers. As a result, they allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. So prepare your body and mind for Pierce RB1 season to roll on. He out-carried Rex Burkhead 20-3 in Week 3 en route to a 73% opportunity share in the Texans’ backfield. In games where Houston can be competitive or face weak run defenses, Pierce can be a big producer on early downs as a rusher. Just note that Burkhead still has the receiving role (5 targets, 45% route participation in Week 3) making Pierce game-flow dependent (2 targets, 27% route participation in Week 3).

Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen: Allen has been participating in individual drills this week as he looks to make his return from a Week 1 hamstring injury. But as of Friday, he has been ruled out. 

Mike Williams: Williams’ fantasy ceiling increases because Allen can’t go, putting him firmly in the high-end fantasy WR2 territory. He went 0-for-3 on his deep targets in Week 3, which likely won’t be the case versus the Texans. Their pass defense is underrated, but they still rank 30th in yards gained per pass completion (12.5). And the archetype wide receiver they have struggled to stop this season – Courtland Sutton and Michael Pittman hung 120-plus receiving yards each on Houston – is exactly what Big Mike brings to the Chargers passing game.

Joshua Palmer: Palmer is rock solid WR3/FLEX option as his 96% route participation from the last two weeks will stay intact based on Allen’s absence. He’s actually out-targeted and out-produced Mike Williams in the Chargers’ last two games.

DeAndre Carter: Expect Carter to play a role with Keenan Allen sidelined. He’s seen his route participation hover around 73% the past two weeks while operating as the team’s primary slot receiver. 

Brandin Cooks: Davis Mills‘ struggles have had a trickle down effect on Brandin Cooks‘ fantasy production. Because even though the Texans No. 1 wide receiver is seeing high-end 28% Target share, he ranks outside the top-50 in half-point scoring. In fact, no WR has performed worse versus expectation than Cooks (-17.8) as his efficiency numbers have suffered to open the year. But I’d expect somewhat of a bounce-back effort from the savvy veteran versus a reeling Chargers defense that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to WRs this season.

Tight Ends

Gerald Everett: The Chargers free agent acquisition has been a pleasant surprise so far this season, with his high end route participation (72%) and Target share (16%). Assuming that Justin Herbert is back to his former self, fantasy managers should have confidence going back to Everett as a backend fantasy TE1.

Texans TEs: Houston didn’t even have Brevin Jordan in the lineup last week, but they still elected to use a three-man committee at tight end between Pharaoh Brown, Jordan Akins and O.J. Howard. The Texans are fantasy tight end wasteland, like the majority of waiver wires.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Carolina Panthers

By: Andrew Erickson

• CAR -1.5, O/U 44
• Cardinals vs. Panthers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray: The Carolina pass defense had yet to be tested against a legitimate opponent prior to Week 3 facing the likes of Jacoby Brissett and Daniel Jones to kick off the 2022 season. They took on Jameis Winston in Week 3. The Saints quarterback tossed for over 300 passing yards, but a lot of the production came in garbage time with the game sealed in favor of the Panthers. So this is hardly a smash spot for Kyler Murray against a defense that ranks inside the top-10 in several key metrics including yards allowed per attempt, passer rating faced and TD rate. Murray has also struggled thus far as a passer when he has not been creating magic on his own. His 5.6 yards per attempt ranks 32nd among 33 qualifying quarterbacks and he’s currently the QB13 in points per game. He leads all quarterbacks in fantasy points scored under expectation (-18.1). If he was playing to his full capacity, Murray would rank second in the NFL in passing yards based on 4th-ranked expected fantasy points per game. That being said, the Cardinals quarterback is still on the bottom end of the elite fantasy QB, which should make him a staple in all fantasy lineups. His lack of rushing in Week 3 – two carries for 8 yards – I’d blame on variance and a Rams defense that ranks last in the NFL in pressure rate. Murray needs to be forced into using his legs, which the Panthers should have more success doing with the 17th-ranked pressure rate.

Baker Mayfield: It’s been ugly for Baker Mayfield in his start for the Carolina Panthers in 2022. He’s completing an abysmal 52% of his passes – 3rd-worst in the NFL – and that has made it extremely tough to trust him or any of his WRs with confidence this season. But there’s no denying that the Cardinals defense provides Mayfield with by far the easiest matchup he has faced all season. They are allowing the league’s third-highest completion rate (71%) and third-most passing yards. All in all, they rank 31st in pass defense EPA. The divine matchup warrants Mayfield a mid-range QB2 option in the SuperFlex format and last-minute streamer in deeper 1QB-leagues.

Running Backs

Week 3

James Conner: Conner totaled 16 touches for 57 yards in Week 3 (60% snap share). No TDs and 3 catches. He’s still Arizona’s clear-cut RB1, with Darrel Williams (17% snap share) and Eno Benjamin (27% snap share) combining for just 7 touches. If you need to make roster depth, I’m okay with cutting those Zona backups. No guarantee either is a bellcow if/and when Conner goes down. The Cardinals offense (aside from feeding their top-3 pass-catchers) is also not inspiring hope that they can support fantasy production for a lesser-talented RB based on just volume alone. As for Conner’s expectations versus the Panthers he remains a volume-based RB2 option. I’d expect the Cards’ lead back to see a higher share of the team’s backfield touches another week removed from his Week 2 injury. The matchup on the ground isn’t as great as the Panthers’ run defense EPA (28th) would suggest as they have faced superior running games to the Cardinals thus far, but Conner should be able to muster enough yardage and potentially score to start in Week 4. The main concern is that Arizona’s OL has the third-worst rushing disadvantage per PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart. It’s been a problem all year and attributed to Conner’s lackluster 3.1 yards per carry. And Conner isn’t a running back that is going to create much on his own, currently ranking 47th out of 54 qualifying RBs in yards after contact per attempt.

Christian McCaffrey: It’s hard to complain about the workload that CMC has been seeing in Carolina’s offense. In Week 3, McCaffrey totaled 27 touches for 115 yards. Rushed for 108 yards on a 91% opportunity share. The issue for fantasy football has been the lack of touchdowns and receiving yards. The TDs will come based on the volume he’s seeing, especially against an Arizona defense that allowed over five yards per carry to Cam Akers in Week 3 and 5 overall TDs to RBs – second-most this season. But a bump in receiving yardage is no guarantee as Baker Mayfield‘s presence has suppressed the Panthers RB’s receiving ceiling so far this season. McCaffrey caught just two passes for 7 yards (4 targets) in Week 3. It was a career-low in receiving yards for McCaffrey in a game that he didn’t leave due to injury. And every game this season, CMC has finished under 30 receiving yards. Before this season, McCaffrey did not have a game with sub-30 receiving yards (where he didn’t leave hurt) since the middle of the 2019 season. He’s still a locked-and-loaded top-3 RB, but the advantage he once gave fantasy managers isn’t the same.

Wide Receivers

D.J. Moore: D.J. Moore has run a route on 100% of Baker Mayfield‘s dropbacks this season, but ranks outside the top-40 in routes run. He has 88 receiving yards and seven catches on 18 targets (six per game). Sooner or later, Moore is going to produce but his fantasy ceiling remains low in a Panthers offense that ranks second-to-last in plays per game (54.3). Their sluggish pace has made it tough for Moore to take advantage of his team-leading 23% Target share. But this matchup against a fast-paced Cardinals offense (second in plays per game) figures to provide the exact push Moore back into starting lineups. Their poor pass defense – last in adjusted yards allowed per pass attempt – lends itself to rolling the dice with Moore in Week 4. I guarantee you no waiver wire WR will be on the field more in a plus-matchup than Moore. Keep the faith.

Robbie Anderson: Anderson plays nearly as much as D.J. Moore does, but his targets have fallen off considerably since Week 1. Just 4.5 targets per game over his last two, which has resulted in 4 catches for 48 receiving yards. Considering how hard it is to back Moore as a WR3 option this week, starting Anderson is just getting cute even with the plus-matchup.

Marquise Brown: Marquise Brown commanded 17 targets (31% Target share) for 14 catches and 140 yards in Week 3 on a 95% snap share. You need to keep playing him as long as DeAndre Hopkins is suspended. The volume for him is absolutely massive. But be warned that his day might be hindered by Carolina Panthers star cornerback, Jaycee Horn. The second-year corner has been an absolute stud this season. He ranks third in fewest fantasy points allowed per coverage snap (0.08) and first in passer rating generated when targeted (15.3). He’s a big reason why the Panthers are tied for first in fewest receiving TDs allowed to WRs this season.

Greg Dortch: Luckily for Greg Dortch, Horn doesn’t operate from the slot. That should keep the target floodgates open for the Cardinals souped-up slot wideout to be peppered with looks from Kyler Murray. He has at least nine targets in two of his last three games (7.6 per game) and ran a route on 85% of dropbacks in Week 3. A.J. Green is also out for Week 4, further concentrating the targets towards Dortch alongside the Cardinals other two top pass-catchers. Very-worthy FLEX or WR3 option assuming that Rondale Moore is out. The second-year WR is questionable, but is apparently trending towards playing. 

Tight Ends

Zach Ertz: Zach Ertz remains a weekly fantasy TE1. His route participation (87%) and target volume (10 in Week 3) are elite and I’d argue he’s overdue to score. Ertz has just one TD score this season, despite commanding 8 red-zone targets so far.

Panthers TEs: Teams that deploy two tight ends are hard enough to figure out, but three is just impossible. Ian Thomas, Tommy Tremble and Giovanni Ricci are all seeing snaps in the Panthers offense. If I had to take a shot on someone it’d be Thomas, who has seen at least two targets and run the most routes in all three games this season. The Cardinals have allowed the most fantasy points to tight ends this season.