Through seven weeks of play, we have seen seven different players finish as the top overall kicker, highlighted by Cairo Santos’ 18-point performance in a shocking Bears’ 33-14 road victory over the Patriots on Monday Night Football.
Only Graham Gano of the Giants has followed up a number one overall week with a top-10 performance in the following game, leading me to question whether chasing Santos’ big game is a wise play this week with the Bears taking on the Cowboys.
Eleven kickers finished with ten or more fantasy points last week, yet only three of them are rostered in over 70% of Yahoo leagues. It was a rough day for some heavily rostered kickers, as Harrison Butker, Ryan Succop, Brett Maher, Brandon McManus, and Nick Folk all posted six or fewer fantasy points.
A bright spot on the week, and someone who should be added to everyone’s waiver wire list, is Jason Myers of the Seahawks. Myers has quietly moved into third place in season scoring behind Justin Tucker and Daniel Carlson, yet he is rostered in only 33% of leagues. As good as Geno Smith and the Seattle offense have been this season, they are the second-worst red zone offense, and Myers continues to put up solid games.
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Week 7 Stud Performances from widely available kickers
Robbie Gould (K – SF) vs. Kansas City: 33% roster percentage on Yahoo
Myers is the obvious choice here, but I thought I would go in another direction and spotlight Gould. The crafty veteran made three field goals and two extra points against the Chiefs to post his first double-digit performance of the season. Gould does look like another strong play this week as the Niners take on the Rams, a team they have dominated in the regular season as of late. But I am not sold yet on Gould’s long-term value, as the team should continue to improve now they are getting healthy on their offensive line.
Cairo Santos (K – CHI) @ NE: 1% roster percentage on Yahoo
If you predicted the game scrip in Chicago’s lopsided road victory over the Patriots on Monday Night Football, consider yourself part of a small minority. Vegas had the Bears as 7.5-point dogs with an over-under of just 40 points. I predicted a lopsided win for New England with Nick Folk finishing with a top-5 performance. Instead, the Pats were torched on the ground and they could not move the ball with Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe, providing a positive game script for Santos and the Bears.
Week 7 Dud Performances from widely-rostered kickers
Ryan Succop (K – TB) @ Carolina: 90% roster percentage on Yahoo
Another shocking game script in this game left Ryan Succop managers licking their wounds. I am still trying to figure out how Tom Brady and the Bucs managed just three fantasy points against a team that is clearly looking to the future and just sent away Christian McCaffrey.
Kicker Rankings
| Rank | ECR | Name | TEAM | Opponent | Spread | O/U | OPP RZ D | RZ EFF* | OFF RNK | K Score** | Weather |
| 1 | 1 | Justin Tucker | BAL | at TB | -1.5 | 45 | 31 | 20 | 14 | 65 | 75F, 5 MPH Wind |
| 2 | 2 | Daniel Carlson | LV | at NO | -2 | 49 | 13 | 17 | 9 | 39 | Dome |
| 3 | 3 | Evan McPherson | CIN | at CLE | -3 | 48 | 3 | 24 | 11 | 38 | TBD |
| 4 | 5 | Tyler Bass | BUF | vs. GB | -10.5 | 48 | 6 | 23 | 1 | 30 | 51F, 11 MPH Wind |
| 5 | 4 | Ryan Succop | TB | vs. BAL | 1.5 | 45 | 26 | 5 | 22 | 53 | 75F, 5 MPH Wind |
| 6 | 7 | Jake Elliott | PHI | vs. PIT | -11 | 44 | 7 | 26 | 5 | 38 | 61F, 5 MPH Wind |
| 7 | 12 | Jason Myers | SEA | vs. NYG | -3 | 46 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 17 | 56F, 11 MPH Wind |
| 8 | 21 | Riley Patterson | JAC | vs. DEN | -3.5 | 39 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 19 | 65F 5 MPH WInd |
| 9 | 15 | Robbie Gould | SF | at LAR | -2 | 42 | 2 | 17 | 13 | 32 | Dome |
| 10 | 10 | Wil Lutz | NO | vs. LV | 2 | 49 | 30 | 26 | 3 | 59 | Dome |
| 11 | 11 | Nick Folk | NE | at NYJ | -2.5 | 41 | 25 | 6 | 17 | 48 | 59F, 4 Light WInd |
| 12 | 20 | Cade York | CLE | vs. CIN | 3 | 48 | 3 | 19 | 6 | 28 | TBD |
| 13 | 8 | Jason Sanders | MIA | at DET | 3 | 51 | 29 | 27 | 10 | 66 | DOme |
| 14 | 13 | Matt Gay | LAR | vs. SF | 2 | 42 | 23 | 5 | 26 | 54 | Dome |
| 15 | 18 | Brandon McManus | DEN | at JAC | 3.5 | 39 | 12 | 0 | 23 | 35 | 65F 5 MPH WInd |
| 16 | 14 | Greg Joseph | MIN | vs. ARI | -3.5 | 49 | 17 | 21 | 18 | 56 | Dome |
| 17 | 23 | Chase McLaughlin | IND | vs. WAS | -2.5 | 41 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 36 | Dome |
| 18 | 16 | Graham Gano | NYG | at SEA | 3 | 46 | 22 | 10 | 19 | 51 | 56F, 11 MPH Wind |
| 19 | 9 | Younghoe Koo | ATL | vs. CAR | -6 | 42 | 10 | 28 | 27 | 65 | Dome |
| 20 | 17 | Mason Crosby | GB | at BUF | 10.5 | 48 | 9 | 23 | 20 | 52 | 51F, 11 MPH Wind |
| 21 | 6 | Brett Maher | DAL | vs. CHI | -2 | 43 | 24 | 18 | 29 | 71 | Dome |
| 22 | 19 | Ka’imi Fairbairn | HOU | vs. TEN | 2 | 41 | 13 | 13 | 25 | 51 | Dome |
| 23 | 22 | Michael Badgley | DET | vs. MIA | -3 | 51 | 28 | 29 | 4 | 61 | Dome |
| 24 | 24 | Greg Zuerlein | NYJ | vs. NE | 2.5 | 41 | 16 | 23 | 21 | 60 | 59F, 4 Light WInd |
| 25 | 25 | Randy Bullock | TEN | at HOU | -2 | 41 | 8 | 31 | 31 | 70 | Dome |
| 26 | 26 | Chris Boswell | PIT | at PHI | 11 | 44 | 19 | 10 | 30 | 59 | 61F, 5 MPH Wind |
| 27 | 27 | Rodrigo Blankenship | ARI | at MIN | 3.5 | 49 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 64 | Dome |
*Red Zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker‘s offense does in the red zone. For example, the Ravens rank 12th in red zone efficiency; therefore Justin Tucker has a RZ EFF score of 29. The lower number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.
**The K Score is the sum of a player’s opponent’s red zone, the red zone efficiency of his offense, and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates that a kicker has variables working in his favor for a good fantasy kicking performance.
Kicker rankings are based on numerous factors, including matchups, Vegas lines and score projections, weather conditions, the ability of a kicker‘s team offense and their ability to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red zone efficiency, and how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide, but not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and negative game scripts significantly impact the outcome.
The following two kickers are players ranked outside of the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who could be an excellent play in Week 7.
Jason Myers (K – SEA) vs. NYG: 33% roster percentage on Yahoo
It is not often that you get a top-three kicker on the season with one of the best K Scores of the season. In the case of Myers at home against the Giants, that is exactly what fantasy managers have, and Myers is available in two-thirds of leagues. Unless you have Justin Tucker or Daniel Carlson, I would drop your kicker for Myers.
Riley Patterson (JAX) vs. Denver: 13% roster percentage on Yahoo
It may take a bit of guts to start a kicker on the Jags who just posted two fantasy points in Week 7. It may take even more intestinal fortitude to start a player who has just one double-digit performance since Week 3. Yet, if you are looking for a player who is available everywhere and a cheap play in DFS, Patterson’s K Score of 19 is hard to ignore.
Prediction Review
Each week I suggest two kickers ranked outside the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who I believe will be solid performers based on the variables described in the K Score section. The following is a review of my picks from the previous week to see where I was successful and where I missed the mark.
Dustin Hopkins (K – LAC) @ Seattle: (18)% roster percentage on Yahoo
- ECR Rank: 11
- My Rank: 6
- Week 7 Finish: NA
Hopkins was ruled out for this game right after my article was published.
Nick Folk (K – NE) vs. Chicago: 48% roster percentage on Yahoo
- ECR Rank: 13
- My Rank: 9
- Week 7 Finish: 26
This one burns a bit. His K Score of 45 was not nearly as high as other players ranked last week, but the projected game script by Vegas with New England as 7.5-point favorites indicated a solid performance. Instead, Folk managed just two extra points in an incredibly disappointing week.
Waiver Wired
Top Add
Jason Myers (K – SEA) vs. NYG: 33% roster percentage on Yahoo
I had Myers as a player to consider last week, and he has earned another spot in the waiver wire section for Week 8. He is third this season in scoring and is a top-10 play with top-5 upside at home against the Giants.
Other players to consider:
- Wil Lutz (K – NO) vs. Las Vegas: 23% roster percentage on Yahoo
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Andrew Swanson is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive or follow him @FFKickerGuy.