So many injuries. But don’t sweat it because SportsMedAnalytics + FantasyPros have your back. If you like what you see, hit us with a follow and tell your friends! IG: @sportsmedanalytics, @fantasypros. Twitter: @SportMDAnalysis, @FantasyPros. Now let’s dive in.
Check out all of our Week 5 fantasy football content
A mid-week addition to the injury report is far from ideal, but Lamb does look likely to play. Mild groin strains cause a slight (~10%) performance dip, but the more concerning aspect is the ~20% rate of worsening the injury. Not expecting major limitations, although the injury, in addition to the matchup against Jalen Ramsey, will have me avoiding him for DFS.
It could still go either way, but we’d lean toward Hill playing. The average quad strain comes with a temporary performance dip of ~20%, but based on his practice timeline, this one sounds like it’s on the milder side. As a season-long Hill owner, I’m still planning to play him, but I would be looking elsewhere in DFS.
Waddle has been battling a mild groin strain, so the SportsMedAnalytics project him likely playing at ~85% capacity. The re-injury rate is nearly 20%, so season-long owners and Dolphins fans must keep their fingers that he avoids that outcome. He’s still a true game-time decision, but we’d lean toward him playing.
Turf toe averages 3-4 weeks for WRs, but the Saints haven’t given any indication of severity yet. The fact that (1) he hasn’t practiced in two weeks and (2) he’s being treated non-operatively together implies a moderate level. Unfortunately, the performance dip with these injuries can linger even 3-4 weeks beyond the return timeline.
The SportsMedAnalytics project Kamara back to baseline for per-play production and usage rate. A hit to the affected area could aggravate this issue, which may be why he missed last week. However, a rapidly improving trajectory is what we typically see with these rib injuries (see Week 3 vs. 4 of Justin Herbert‘s stat line for reference).
Not surprising that he missed the Thursday night game on a short week. Mild ankle sprains average ~1 missed game, so we’d lean towards him playing Week 6. Per-play production isn’t generally affected, but historical usage data suggests his backups are more likely to get touches due to JT’s injury.
Mild hamstring strains average 2-3 weeks. Based on his young age and the Falcons’ comments, we’d lean toward the lower end of that range for Pitts. Production impact is relatively low, as players return to ~90% explosiveness, but they do carry a 20% re-injury risk for the first few weeks back.
Severe high ankle sprains average 4-6 weeks for position players, but QBs can hustle back in 2-4. Expect Jones out in Week 5 with a possible return in Week 6. Data still indicates the most likely return date is Week 7.
~50% snap rate is definitely progress for Dobbins. The typical ramp-up in workload takes four weeks for RBs coming off of multi-ligament knee surgery. Expect the training wheels to come off ~Week 7, with Dobbins looking progressively more explosive up until ~Week 10.
True game-time decision. Slightly lean towards him sitting. If he plays, expect less than his typical production. Ankles don’t tend to affect WRs on a per-play basis, but data suggests they see fewer snaps and targets when dealing with sprains that knock them out of practice for almost 2 full weeks.
Out this week, but that’s not a setback. AC joint sprains (shoulder) average 2-4 missed games but don’t cause much performance impact when RBs return. Expect him back near full strength in Week 7.
Likely playing. Wide receivers usually play through mild ankle sprains without much performance impact. The re-injury risk is real – which is probably why we haven’t seen much production from Gabe Davis recently – but the short-term impact for Higgins if he avoids that outcome shouldn’t be too high.
Mid-foot sprains average 2-3 weeks for WRs. Luckily, upon return, not much performance dip is expected. We’ll hope to see Bateman return to limited practice next week, although there’s potential for this to linger ~1 week beyond that.
Looks like he’s finally past this foot injury, as he logged a full practice to close out the week. Consider him a full-go with no noticeable performance impact.
Gallup’s snap count was relatively high (64% of team snaps) considering that he’s only 8 months out from ACL surgery, but his production was right in line with the SportsMedAnalytics projections. We should expect a progressively more solid player as the season progresses, but his 90% mark won’t likely arrive until late November-early December. Expect him to produce like a skilled player with significant explosiveness limitations for now.
Schultz is back on the field and without practice limitations. However, data projects another 2-4 weeks of limited production before his knee feels good enough to play like his pre-injury self.
Average QB return timelines take 5-6 weeks, so it wouldn’t be unreasonable to see Dak on the field (with mild limitations) next week. However, the most common outcome would still be Week 7. Grip strength (and with that full return to pre-injury performance) generally recovers in 8 weeks, so expect him to be full strength after their Week 9 bye.
Godwin’s usage rate should remain high despite the scare during last week’s game. By early-mid November, the SportsMedAnalytics project the return of ~top 15-20 WR production. Promising buy-low candidate.
Looks like he’s ready to make his debut only ~5 weeks after getting shot. Luckily, it sounds like the areas he got hit were mostly large muscle groups (glute, thigh, etc.). Those areas recover quickly because they have a good blood supply, and the overall strength/explosiveness impact is likely to be relatively mild. Expect Robinson to look like 85-90% of his pre-injury self, although we don’t know how the Commanders plan to utilize him.
A moderate hamstring strain has kept him out of practice this week. The average timeline takes WRs ~3 weeks. The most common outcome would be a return in Week 7, but there’s an outside chance he could beat that by 1 game. Wide receivers tend to return at ~90% of their prior explosiveness without much lag in productivity.
Allen re-aggravated his prior hamstring strain late last week. This is bad news, as it usually means ~4 weeks of recovery. Look for Allen to return to practice leading up to ~Week 7-8. Performance impacts can linger beyond that, and re-injury risk for the rest of the season is relatively high. Potentially a buy-low candidate if you have the patience to stash him until ~Week 10-12.
A true game-time decision, but we’d avoid starting Montgomery either way in season-long or DFS formats. The Bears haven’t given us much information to work with, but initially, listing both knee and ankle potentially suggests a high ankle sprain. Even when mild, these average ~2 weeks for RBs. As a result, if he plays, we’d expect per-play production and total usage rate to both take a hit.
It could still go either way, but we’d lean towards Hurst playing this week. The SportsMedAnalytics report a 10% performance dip and 20% re-injury risk.
Very likely to play despite the hamstring issue. Minimal performance impact (<10%) is expected.
More questions? Don’t hesitate to ask by posting this article link on Twitter and tagging @SportMDAnalysis + @FantasyPros!
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.