It no longer bothers me when I get some of these dead wrong. It takes a lot of insecurity to try and cover up bad predictions and there will always be people on the internet who will point out the mess-ups. All the tweets stay up, the articles remain published and archived. I can’t run and hide (and I don’t want to). The more parts I add to these “PICANTakes,” the tougher they are to get exactly right and the more silly they look when it doesn’t break my way. The hits and close calls keep me coming back to write this piece every week like a birdie on the 18th hole to wrap up a round of 107.
Week 4 was horrendous for my fantasy teams. Nothing went as planned, except for that darling Chargers RB Austin Ekeler. Although he fell well short of the 170 scrimmage yards in my prediction, he was the RB1 in PPR scoring on the heels of multiple touchdowns (3). Two-thirds correct doesn’t warrant a victory lap, but it still felt good. Some of you ran with that inkling of mine and loaded up on Ekeler in DFS and padded your bankroll considerably. The Week 5 PICANTakes have been simmering in my mind for a few days, so here they are like a smoky, sultry birria consume.
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Tom Brady Puts Work First and Tosses Three Touchdown Passes as the Bucs Obliterate the Falcons by 20 Points
My parent’s divorce left an indelible imprint on my worldview as a child. I hope Tom and Gisele can be amicable for their children since this is not a laughing matter for them. The GOAT has dealt with every type of distraction before in his career, so this tabloid fodder won’t inhibit him in the slightest against the shockingly 2-2 Falcons. I give Atlanta zero chance of winning this game.
Arthur Smith will be thoroughly out-coached in this game and the staggering talent gap between the two rosters will be exposed. Let the Falcons try to “run the piss out of the ball.” The Bucs will shut it down and force the Falcons to be one-dimensional with Marcus Mariota. I have the final score as 31-10, with Coach Smith once again blithering about “trying to win” by taking his star receivers off the field instead of attacking with them.
Ja’Marr Chase Puts Up 175 Receiving Yards and Two Touchdowns on the Ravens in Highest-Scoring Game of Week 5
If you have the time, take a gander at Joe Burrow‘s career numbers against the Ravens. Spoiler alert: they are absolutely insane. The 2022 Bengals have not been able to provide Burrow much of a clean pocket from which to throw, but he is still having no trouble getting the ball to his stud WRs. Ja’Marr Chase is primed for a massive game against the old, tattered Ravens secondary.
Joe Burrow threw for 941 yds and 7 TD's vs the Ravens in 2021
Jamar Chase caught 15 balls on 20 targets for 326 total yds
Ravens finished 2021 ranked 32nd in the league in pass yds allowed
Ravens rank 32nd in the league in 2022 in pass yds allowed with 315 per game
— Sporting Intelligence (@SportIntellgnce) October 5, 2022
Tee Higgins is dealing with a minor ankle injury but will be good enough to keep the defense honest and produce his own solid stat line. Many are expecting this game to have fireworks, but I am picturing something historic. Each offense has the artillery to score at will this week, leaving me breathless at the thought of an 80-plus point total. Smash all the over bets in this one and invest heavily in Chase Bank of Nuclear Fantasy Performances.
Travis Kelce Racks Up 15 Receptions on MNF Versus Raiders, More Than All Other Chiefs Combined
Without Travis Kelce, the Chiefs receiving corps is dismal. Marquez Valdes-Scantling and JuJu Smith-Schuster were covered as soon as they arrived at Arrowhead Stadium. Mecole Hardman and Skyy Moore have yet to earn the trust of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. Heck, they are so desperate that they are targeting Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jody Fortson in the red zone. This offense is all about Kelce… and it works.
Travis Kelce vs. Raiders Since 2016:
❌ 3-32-0 (3 targets)
✅ 5-101-0 (8)
✅ 4-33-1 (5)
✅ 7-74-0 (13)
✅ 12-168-2 (13)
✅ 5-62-0 (9)
✅ 7-107-1 (9)
✅ 5-90-0 (9)
✅ 8-108-1 (12)
✅ 8-127-1 (10)
✅ 8-119-0 (10)
❌ 3-27-0 (4)— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) October 5, 2022
The future Hall of Fame TE will be peppered on Monday night. This will be partly due to the Raiders’ sluggish linebacking group and strong pass rush forcing Mahomes to scramble and find his security blanket. If the Raiders can keep this game close or somehow gain a lead, Kelce might approach 20 targets.
Aaron Jones Fogs Up London with a Steamy 150 Scrimmage Yards and Two Touchdowns at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
The Green Bay Packers are still a good football team, despite trading away Davante Adams and leaving Aaron Rodgers with a bunch of washed-up vets and a couple of rookies at WR. One reason has been the outstanding play of Aaron Jones. The RB from UTEP is an excellent runner and leads the NFL in yards after contact per attempt (Fantasy Points). Jones has also resumed his stellar play as a receiver, compiling exactly three receptions in all four games this season. This is the first London game ever for the Packers as a franchise and they are being fed possibly the worst 3-1 team in NFL history, the New York Giants.
Aaron Jones leads all RBs in Yards After Contact per Attempt (min. 40) attempts! #GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/SsWKBQvXVp
— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) October 4, 2022
A similar duo of RBs ripped the Giants to shreds in Week 3, when Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard combined for 178 rushing yards. Jones is the Pollard in this scenario and should expect more than the 13 touches the Cowboys gave their explosive RB. He has surpassed that figure in every game since Week 1. I also expect the Packers to wallop the Giants handily on the scoreboard and lead to a positive game script that favors Jones, whose snap share has not been affected by AJ Dillon in the slightest.
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