The hot takes were super-duper spicy last week, but I couldn’t taste anything afterward. None of them were particularly close, except for my prediction that Kelce would have a monumental game on Monday night versus the Raiders. He did not put forth the volume I expected, but his four receiving touchdowns signal that my gut instinct that he would go thermonuclear was correct.
Instead of reeling in the heat index for Week 6 to chase a better hit rate, I’m turning the dial up! Picture Flint Lockwood in Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs perilously adding more and more orders to his food weather machine to impress the town folk in Swallow Falls. Fantasy football content can sometimes be as boring as sardines, so I’m making five-alarm chili.
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Stefon Diggs Erupts for 150 Yards and Two Touchdowns as the Bills Get Revenge on the Chiefs in a Game Total Over 64 Points
Most of us will never forget last year’s AFC Divisional playoff game between these two juggernaut squads. Buffalo pitched a perfect game on offense, but the Chiefs snuck into field goal range in under 13 seconds to send it to overtime.
The famous coin toss that changed the rule for playoff games going forward put Patrick Mahomes & Company on the field again to win the game with a Travis Kelce touchdown. It was an instant classic.
Mahomes and Josh Allen are each spectacular talents and will have plenty to prove in the late window on Sunday. The Bills are out for revenge, while the Chiefs want to show they can do it again without Tyreek Hill.
The Chiefs defense deploys man coverage on the outside about 30% of the time (PFF), leaving their feisty corners on an island slightly more often than the league average. Diggs has been one of the best man-beating WRs in the NFL for years (RP) and is having a whale of a 2022 season so far.
I am forecasting a huge performance for Diggs in this game as part of a resounding victory for the Bills. I can’t see any reason to expect the Chiefs to slow Allen down, while Mahomes will need to navigate through a top-5 defense with Kelce and a bunch of mediocre WRs. To their credit, the Chiefs should still score enough points to push this total well over the betting line of 54.
Skylar Thompson Impresses in First NFL Start, Scores 20 Fantasy Points in Dolphins Double-Digit Win Over Vikings
Who? That’s right, Skylar Thompson: the rookie from Kansas State who was the backup’s backup until last week. The Vikings defense has been thoroughly underwhelming this season and has allowed an opposing passer rating of 95.2 (23rd). They are also 30th in pressure rate this season at 24.6% (The 33rd Team).
All signs point to the Mike McDaniel offense in Miami attacking the perimeter with stretch run plays, followed by bootleg play action to get Hill and Jaylen Waddle in space for high-percentage passes to help the rookie out. Thompson is pretty athletic and can scramble for yards that Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater wouldn’t attempt to pick up.
The Vikings have been weirdly inconsistent on offense this season. The Miami defense isn’t exactly stout, but they are well-coached and could give Kirk Cousins fits with exotic blitz packages and mixed coverage looks.
Minnesota is a 3.5-point road favorite, undoubtedly because of the QB situation in Miami. From what I saw in college out of Thompson, along with his reps in the preseason and in relief of Bridgewater last week, it would not surprise me one bit if he has himself a successful debut.
Ezekiel Elliott Rushes for over 100 Yards and Scores Twice in Cowboys’ Win Over Previously-Unbeaten Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles are the best team in the NFC. They also happen to be the last remaining unbeaten team in the entire NFL. Aside from my own personal homerism, why would I stick my neck out for A: an RB who has yet to have a 15-point fantasy performance this season and B: a team who very well could be rolling out Cooper Rush for the fifth game in a row?
It’s because the Cowboys are built to beat the Eagles. The two meetings between these fierce division rivals were not close last season. Dak Prescott threw for a combined eight touchdown passes versus Philly in 2021 and is still questionable to play after thumb surgery, but Dallas was dominant on the ground. The Cowboys averaged 165.5 rushing yards in the two games, which opened up the play-action pass for Prescott.
The Eagles are 14th at fantasy points allowed to RBs this season. They have been very staunch since Week 1, but that’s the game I want to highlight as a precursor to this primetime showdown.
The Detroit Lions absolutely mauled the Eagles up front and rushed for 181 yards. Philly returned the favor and won the game on the heels of 216 rushing yards, but the Cowboys defense is simply much stronger than the sieve they’re running out there from Detroit.
Dallas will look to punch Philly in the mouth with the run game, regardless of whether they are helmed by Rush or Prescott. Elliott has not seen his normal share of goal-line carries this season, but I predict that will change in a big way on Sunday night.
DJ Moore Saves His Best Work for Matt Rhule’s Departure, Racks up 120 Yards and a Rare TD in Road Win over Reeling Rams
The unrelenting stream of incompetent head coaches saw its first casualty in 2022 with the long overdue firing of Rhule. Where the Panthers were at least decent on defense during Rhule’s tenure, the offense has been an abject disaster.
Baker Mayfield ranks dead last in nearly every QB metric and is out “at least a couple of weeks” with an ankle sprain suffered in Week 5. Steve Wilks, who was unceremoniously dismissed by the Arizona Cardinals after one season in favor of failed college coach Kliff Kingsbury, takes the reins in Carolina looking to salvage some wins in the wide-open NFC South division.
PJ Walker will start versus Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey and the Rams. Walker has already publicly stated that his job is “to put the ball in my playmakers’ hands.” Even if just an anecdotal appeasement, fantasy managers need better opportunities for Christian McCaffrey and especially Moore.
Moore has been a deep disappointment in 2022, coming into Week 6 as the WR47 in PPR. He has but one touchdown and only one game with double-digit targets.
This ultra-picante prediction is a bet on Moore’s immense talent. He entered this season with three-consecutive campaigns of more than 1,100 receiving yards. The Carolina offense in each of these seasons leaned just as heavily on him and McCaffrey and was otherwise terrible.
Moore is a fantastic talent that was bridled by Rhule’s philosophy that saw the Panthers offense run the third-fewest plays per game in the NFL. Very often, an interim regime will go out in the first game without the old head coach and let loose with the playbook and perform better.
The Rams still have not shown me they can easily win games where they are favored. They barely beat the Falcons and won in a battle of futility with the Cardinals. All three losses have been by double-digits. There is also the look-ahead component to the bye week followed by another meeting with the 49ers. All the signs point to Carolina winning an emotional exhale game after shedding their wet blanket of a head coach.
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