Fortune favors the bold, right? As Matthew Freedman said on a recent episode of the FantasyPros Football Podcast, “I’m not drafting to come in third place.” Now that draft season is over and we’re into the regular season, it’s time for weekly bold predictions.

The point here is that if you follow the consensus, you’re probably going to have a good team. But in order to go from good to great, you have to take some chances. You have to do your homework and figure out where you can zig when the rest of your league (or at least your opponent this week) zags. In short, you need to know how and when to be bold.

We asked our analysts to provide a bold prediction for Week 4. Their answers and justifications are below.

Check out all of our Week 4 fantasy football content

Week 4 Bold Predictions

AJ Dillon runs wild over the Patriots
As a long-time Patriots fan, I’ve seen Brian Hoyer play. And I sure remember how poorly he played in his one spot-start versus the Kansas City Chiefs in 2020. 59.4 passer rating. 5.4 yards per attempt. 3 turnover-worthy plays in addition to a devasting sack that knocked the Pats out of FG range. In Week 4 versus a GB defense that ranks top-6 in fewest points and yards allowed on defense, Bill Belichick will have no choice but to turn to his rookie QB Bailey Zappe to provide a spark for an offense that will inevitably do nothing with Hoyer “the destroyer of offensive production” at the helm. That being said, Hoyer’s 1st-half performance will put the Packers up big going to the 3rd quarter, allowing them to feed AJ Dillon, AKA Quadzilla, to their hearts’ desire. The Packers RB leads the team with 40 carries this season. And the Patriots’ run defense ranks fourth in most yards allowed before contact per attempt.
– Andrew Erickson

Zach Wilson returns and immediately ruins Garrett Wilson‘s value
I hate to see Wilson-on-Wilson crime, but I fear Zach Wilson will not only throw the ball less than Joe Flacco upon his return but will also favor Elijah Moore and Corey Davis, considering he’s had more time with those two receivers during his brief NFL career. Wilson still has a lot to prove at the NFL level, and so far, I’ve been unimpressed with his development. That’s bad news for Garrett Wilson managers.
– Joe Pisapia

Richie James Jr. is a Top 24 WR in Week 4
Sterling Shepard led the Giants in air yards share (46%) and target share (31%, 10 targets) on Monday night while playing 81% of the team’s snaps. With him out, Kadarius Toney would be the Giants WR to stash off the waiver wire, even though he missed Week 3 with his own injury. He easily has the most upside among this group of pass-catchers. Veteran Richie James Jr. would be next in line for an increased role in Week 4. He currently ranks second on the Giants in every receiving category behind Shepard. He also played the second-most snaps (74%) in Week 3 and has the best matchup from the slot versus Chicago. Bears slot cornerback Kyler Gordon ranks second in fantasy points allowed per coverage snap and fourth in target rate per route covered (26%).
– Derek Brown

Breece Hall has his first 100-yard rushing day in the NFL
Hall’s takeover of the Jets backfield has begun. After being out-snapped by incumbent starter Michael Carter in the first two games of the season, Hall out-snapped Carter 40-38 in Week 3. Carter is a useful player, but Hall is special, and I think the snaps will continue to tilt in his favor. Hall had only 39 rushing yards against the Bengals last weekend, largely because the Jets fell into a big hole early and abandoned the running game. They’re only 3-point underdogs vs. the Steelers this week, so the Jets should have a run-friendlier game script, and Hall will be facing a soft Pittsburgh run defense that gave up the second-most rushing yards to opposing RBs last season and has allowed the 10th-most this season. This game will be Hall’s debutante ball.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

Nick Chubb rushes for 200 yards
In NFL history, there have been 158 games in which a player has had 200-plus yards rushing. This Sunday, we’ll get No. 159. With QB Jacoby Brissett starting, the Browns offense has ranked No. 2 in rush rate (54.3%) and rush DVOA (22.3%, per Football Outsiders), so I expect them to rely on the running game this week as road favorites (-1.5 at DraftKings). Through three games, Chubb leads the NFL with 62-341-4 rushing and is the No. 1 fantasy back with 21.0 FPPG. The Browns offense is No. 1 in the league in rush EPA per play (0.166) — and the Falcons defense is No. 32 (0.119). Chubb is gonna go off.
– Matthew Freedman