Fantasy Football Air Yards Analysis: Week 7 (2022)

The game of fantasy football has become more complex over the past several years. While the game itself hasn’t changed much, the way to analyze stats and draw conclusions has become much more in-depth with the development of advanced stats.

One of those advanced stats is air yards. Why are air yards important? Because it helps differentiate the value of targets. Quick passes like screens and slants have a different value than downfield routes. Depending on what your league’s scoring is, it will make a difference in what you want from a fantasy player.

Receiving yards is a basic yet important stat for fantasy football players. Having receivers who catch plenty of short targets is valuable in PPR scoring. However, a receiver with consistent big-play ability downfield is equally valuable.

Air yards are not the golden ticket to winning your fantasy league. However, they are a useful tool to help you analyze the game. Let’s look at the top 10 performers at each position and the five top underperformers.

Stats via FantasyPros

The Top 10 Quarterbacks

 
While Ryan was the QB2 in Week 6 and finished with the second-most air yards, he also had the most pass attempts. With Jonathan Taylor unable to play and the Jacksonville Jaguars jumping out to a 14-3 lead early in the second quarter, the Colts abandoned the run and leaned on their veteran quarterback. However, fantasy players shouldn’t expect consistent elite air production from Ryan to continue. The Indianapolis quarterback has only two other games this year with over 150 air yards. The question is: which wide receiver will suffer moving forward when Ryan doesn’t have 50-plus pass attempts in a game?

With Mac Jones sidelined the past three weeks because of a high-ankle sprain, Zappe has played well for the Patriots, leading them to two straight wins as the starter. But has the rookie quarterback been more aggressive in pushing the ball downfield? Zappe has not. While he had the fourth-most air yards last week, it came on the 12th-most pass attempts. However, Zappe has 283 air yards on 55 pass attempts (5.2 aDOT) in his two starts, while Jones has 531 air yards on 97 pass attempts (5.5 aDOT) in his three starts. So, which quarterback will start when Jones is 100% healthy? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.

The Top 10 Wide Receivers

 
Whether it’s Bridgewater, Tua Tagovailoa, or Skylar Thompson, the Miami wide receiver duo are must-start players every week. At least one has made the top-10 air yards list in four of the past five weeks, with both making it twice. What is more surprising is that both have maintained solid aDOTs despite averaging eight or more targets per game. Hopefully, Tua starts this week. If he plays, both Miami wide receivers could end next week in the top-five air yards list against a struggling Pittsburgh Steelers secondary.

Diggs and Davis both made the top-10 list for the second time this season in Week 7. With Allen under center, that isn’t surprising. However, could things change in Buffalo with the trade deadline around the corner? The Bills are reportedly interested in trading for Christian McCaffrey and signing Odell Beckham Jr. However, if either joins the team, fantasy players should expect a decline in air yards and targets for both Diggs and Davis. Hopefully, neither joins the Bills as Diggs is second in the NFL with 432 air yards, while Davis is fourth, adjusting for the one game he missed.

The Top 10 Tight Ends

 
For the fifth time in sixth weeks, Andrews or Kelce had led all tight ends in air yards. That isn’t surprising as Kelce is the TE1, averaging 18.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, while Andrews is the TE2 averaging 15.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Meanwhile, the next closest legit tight end is Ertz, averaging 10.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. I refuse to call Taysom Hill and his one reception this season a tight end for the record. If you thought drafting a stud tight end was a mistake and wouldn’t give you that much of a leg up on your league mates, Kelce and Andrews continue to prove you wrong.

It’s interesting to see how Tonyan’s play has changed throughout the season. He had 26 air yards on five targets in Week 1. Then the veteran tight end had only 17 air yards on 15 targets over the next four games. However, he had his best performance of the year with a season-high 63 air yards and 12 targets on Sunday. So, is Tonyan back to his old ways after slowly starting the year recovering from a torn ACL? This week he has a matchup against the Washington Commanders, who have held tight ends to the third-fewest half-point PPR fantasy points per game this season. I’m curious which version of Tonyan shows up in Week 7.

The Top Five Underperformers

 
Over the first five weeks of the year, Justin Herbert had 834 air yards, the fourth-most in the NFL. Considering Keenan Allen has played only 22 snaps this season, the third-year quarterback has been excellent without his top weapon. However, Herbert had only 118 air yards in Week 7, the 15-most at quarterback despite having the second-most pass attempts (57). The reason was the massive disappointing performance from his receiving corps against the Denver Broncos.

Williams, Palmer, and Everett had 25 targets but had only 35 air yards and a combined 1.4 aDOT. Furthermore, Palmer had the fourth-most targets in Week 6 with 12 but finished outside the top-42 wide receivers in air yards with 22. Hopefully, this was a one-week fluke because of a tough matchup against the Broncos and not a long-term problem in the making. Things should improve once Allen returns from his hamstring injury.

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.