The season’s first seven weeks featured an underwhelming number of points, both fantasy and on the field. Game totals averaged just 43.4 points per game, a significant dip from last year’s total of 47.2, per Yahoo Sports.
Perhaps the tide is turning back in favor of the offense, as Week 8 featured an average total of 46.7 points per game entering Monday. That total draws closer to last year’s number and could continue to rise as we see new offenses begin to gel.
As scoring increases, so do some players’ dynasty stock. Let’s look at who’s rising and who’s falling after an explosive Week 8.
Risers
Some teams have become notorious for developing certain positions. The Patriots are constantly drafting and developing quarterbacks, while the same is true of the Steelers and wide receivers. For the Ravens, tight ends are their bread and butter. Mark Andrews was the second tight end they took in 2018 after Hayden Hurst, and Isaiah Likely was the second tight end of this year’s class behind Charlie Kolar.
After dazzling in the preseason, Likely was put back in the bottle for the most part but has flashed when he’s seen the field. After Andrews left Thursday’s game with a shoulder injury, Likely found himself in an expanded role and delivered six catches for 77 yards and a touchdown. The early reports indicate that Andrews’s injury isn’t serious, but we may see more from Likely even if he doesn’t miss time. He’s played 176 snaps this season, with 108 of them coming in the slot. Seeing him lining up there more frequently as the season progresses wouldn’t be shocking. Likely’s value is on the rise even with Andrews on the roster.
Admittedly, I’m not a huge believer in Justin Fields as an NFL quarterback, but it’s tough not to be impressed with the numbers he’s posted over the last few weeks. His 26.04 fantasy points are the third-highest at the position entering Monday and mark the second week in a row that Fields has topped 20 points. They are his two highest scores of the season despite failing to clear 200 yards passing in either game, a feat he’s accomplished just once this year.
He did throw for two touchdowns, but much of his production has come on the ground as the Bears are finally building a game plan around the quarterback rather than trying to squeeze him into a system. He rushed for 60 yards and a score this week and has tallied 47 or more in each of the past six games. The Konami code quarterback is a cheat code in fantasy football, and Justin Fields’ managers are reaping the rewards.
Prior to the season, I predicted that Tony Pollard would outscore Ezekiel Elliot. Although Zeke held a slight lead heading into Week 8, Pollard showed the efficiency that led to that prediction. He drew the start with Elliot sidelined, taking advantage with 14 carries for 131 yards and three touchdowns, adding one catch for 16 yards. Despite his success, the Cowboys continue to feature Elliot with Pollard in a complementary role. Although the team will likely return to that approach, Pollard shouldn’t be overlooked, as he’s become a central component of the offense. In addition, Pollard will get to choose where he plays football next year as his contract with Dallas comes to an end. He may return, especially if the team moves on from Zeke, but a bigger role is in his future either way.
DJ Moore (WR – CAR) & Terrace Marshall Jr. (WR – CAR)
If you sold low on DJ Moore – ouch. He’s proving that adequate quarterback play is all he needs to get home, and PJ Walker is providing that. He’s caught 13 passes for 221 yards and two scores over the last two weeks following Christian McCaffrey‘s trade to San Francisco. I can’t say I’m surprised, but Terrace Marshall’s recent surge was far less predictable. The second-year wide receiver has already been labeled a bust and written off by many, but he caught four passes for 87 yards on Sunday and looks like he belongs on an NFL field. He played 74 snaps and ran 36 routes, second only to Moore’s 77 and 37. The next closest player, Shi Smith, recorded 38 snaps and 21 routes, making it clear who the number two wideout is following Robbie Anderson‘s departure.
DJ Moore bounced back finally getting some adequate QB play – but he also gets a boost without Christian McCaffrey in the lineup. Going back to 2020, Moore is averaging:
14.5 PPR points w/out CMC
11.6 w/ CMC3 PPG adds up.
Step 1. Buy low on DJM
Step 2. Make money— The Fantasy Football Chad (@tweetsbychad) October 25, 2022
With Corey Davis missing Sunday’s game against the Patriots, Garrett Wilson was undoubtedly Zach Wilson‘s top target. He caught six of seven passes for 115 yards. Elijah Moore, the presumptive number-one receiver entering the season, was limited to 10 snaps and one target. It’s been an up-and-down rookie year for Wilson thus far, but he and Moore are trending in opposite directions, and Wilson has flashed the talent required to be a top option in the NFL.
I couldn’t pass up an opportunity to sneak Kadarius Toney in here. He and the Chiefs are a perfect match, and I’m not sure any player’s stock has risen as much as Toney’s in the past week. That might be a bold claim before he steps foot on the field for the Chiefs, but he instantly becomes the team’s most talented wide receiver. His skillset offers a blend of Mecole Hardman, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and JuJu Smith-Schuster on steroids. Stay tuned.
Fallers
Zach Wilson (QB – NYJ)
Although Zach Wilson’s dynasty stock wasn’t particularly high entering the season, it’s done nothing but tank further as the season has progressed. In his first two games following his knee injury, Wilson finished with 18.78 and 14.6 fantasy points, providing a glimmer of hope. Wilson is averaging just 9.38 fantasy points in the three weeks since and has thrown three interceptions against two touchdowns, all coming this past week. He did throw for 355 yards on a season-high 41 attempts, but the Jets clearly do not want him throwing that frequently, evidenced by his back-breaking interceptions.
If you haven’t noticed, the Bears backfield has turned into a committee between Khalil Herbert and David Montgomery. While Montgomery remains the starter and is playing more snaps, their touches are nearly even. Herbert has recorded 29 touches over the past two weeks compared to 33 for Montgomery, but the production heavily favors Herbert, who is averaging 6.4 yards per touch during the two-game stretch. It’s not an apples-to-apples comparison, but Montgomery’s 4.1 yards per touch fall significantly short of Herbert’s. Volume has been a major boon to Montgomery’s fantasy stock over the past few seasons. If that’s now capped, it significantly hinders his upside and long-term outlook.
After a hot start to the season, Rashod Bateman quickly became a sell-high candidate. He tallied 167 receiving yards and two touchdowns in the first two weeks, doing so on just six receptions. That type of efficiency is nearly impossible to maintain, even if your name is Gabe Davis. Bateman has played in six games this season, finishing five, and has yet to top four receptions in any of them and hasn’t scored double-digit fantasy points since Week 2. He left early in Sunday’s game with an injury, but that’s also becoming a concern. He’s missed seven of 25 games while leaving others early. He’s already a volatile option in the Ravens’ offense, which has increased Devin Duvernay‘s usage, but he becomes even more so if injuries become a constant.
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