On one hand, it feels like the NFL season just kicked off and we all felt good about our dynasty teams. On the other hand, so much has changed through seven weeks that it feels like our teams have been turned upside down and inside out.
At the start of the season, nobody would have projected Josh Jacobs would be an RB1. It’s unlikely anybody had Kenneth Walker emerging this early or Eno Benjamin as an RB1 in any given week this season, let alone Raheem Mostert and Gus Edwards. How about Mecole Hardman, Parris Campbell, and Marquise Goodwin – did anybody have them as WR1s this week?
Needless to say, it’s been a wild season to this point. Let’s identify some of the dynasty risers and fallers following a bizarre Week 7.
Risers
Travis Etienne headlines the risers this week after an 18.9-point performance. With many random names popping up with big weeks, this is one we saw coming. Etienne has slowly been taking over the Jaguars backfield and he put an exclamation point on it Sunday when he notched his first 100-yard rushing game. He gashed the Giants’ defense for 114 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries, adding one reception for five yards. Etienne started in Week 6 but the backfield remained a nearly even split. On Sunday, Etienne handled 57 snaps compared to 12 for James Robinson who did not receive a single carry. Doug Pederson suggested post-game that Robinson may be dealing with an injury, but he was healthy enough to play so it’s tough to assume that limited him. In any case, we will likely see more of Robinson going forward but Etienne is now the guy.
At first glance, seeing Parris Campbell finish as the week’s WR5 feels random. But a closer look tells us that Campbell has seen 23 targets across the last two weeks as his playing time has increased. He played 63 snaps on Sunday, just one fewer than Michael Pittman, running one less route, 47 to 48. Campbell, however, led the team in targets with 11, two more than Pittman’s nine. He’s caught 17 passes for 120 yards and two touchdowns in the last two weeks as the team has shifted to a pass-heavier approach. Campbell has flashed his talent and athleticism many times before succumbing to injury. Let’s hope the 25-year-old can stay on the field and continue the upward trajectory he’s on.
The rookie tight end has played two NFL games, relegating Albert Okwuegbunam to the inactive list both times. Dulcich played a healthy number of snaps in Week 6 but was targeted just three times, a total that jumped to nine this week. He caught six of those targets for 51 yards and appears to be a major part of the offense. He’s been targeted on 19.7% of routes run and if the Broncos’ offense ever rides, he’s going to really break loose.
After a slow start to the season, Smith-Schuster has topped 100 yards in each of the last two games. He tallied 124 yards and a touchdown on seven receptions against the 49ers for 25.4 fantasy points. He’s now posted 237 yards and two touchdowns across the past two weeks after just 257 yards and no touchdowns in the first five weeks. Will the real Smith-Schuster please stand up? It’s tough to know which version we will get moving forward, but he leads the WRs in targets and seems to be developing a rapport with Mahomes. At just 25 years old, he has plenty of NFL life left to make a dynasty manager very happy in the long run.
Joe Burrow led all quarterbacks in scoring with 39.24 points in Week 7. He’s now scored 71.74 points in the last two weeks combined and his 481 yards this week is a season-high for all NFL quarterbacks. He’s thrown for three touchdowns and rushed for one in back-to-back games. The biggest boost for Burrow and the Bengals’ offense has been shotgun. The team has lined up in shotgun on all but 15 snaps the past two weeks, with many of those coming on kneel downs and quarterback sneaks. That equates to 88% of the time compared to 69.7% in the first five weeks and the percentage would be around 90 if we remove the kneel downs. Suffice it to say, the Bengals have found their identity and that lies in the shotgun formation with Burrow slinging the rock.
Fallers
The Packers opened the season with a split backfield approach, but things have shifted in Aaron Jones‘ favor and away from AJ Dillon. Jones handled 40 snaps compared to just 16 for Dillon, who carried four teams and was not targeted. His 15 rushing yards were the fewest of his season, but his usage and production have been trending in the wrong direction the last few weeks. In the last three games, Dillon has carried the ball six, 10, and four times while finishing with rushing totals of 34, 41, and 15. The Packers’ offense has been extremely disappointing, and Dillon is sinking with the ship.
Speaking of sinking with the ship, Leonard Fournette produced just 4.6 fantasy points on Sunday as the Bucs generated just three points. Fournette has been productive lately, posting point totals of 35.9 and 22.1 in Weeks 5 and 6. So, why is he a faller after one bad week? He was outrushed by rookie Rachaad White and their usage was far closer to even than a Fournette manager would like to see. In addition, Fournette has been most ineffective on the ground with his recent production coming through the air. He’s exceeded 3 yards per carry in just two games this season and although White hasn’t been any better in that category, he looked more explosive on Sunday. It’s fair to wonder if the wheels are beginning to fall off for Lenny as he runs behind an offensive line that is downright offensive.
Drake London is 21 years old – I’m not suggesting his struggles will be everlasting. But contenders are not buying London and rebuilding teams are apprehensive to pay up for the talented rookie, and for good reason. Arthur Smith is running the offense like Air Force or Navy – if you’re unfamiliar, they don’t pass the ball much. Despite facing a steep deficit for the entirety of the contest, Marcus Mariota attempted just 13 passes with one of them going in London’s direction. Good thing they drafted this kid eighth overall. Of Mariota’s 124 yards passing, 75 came on one big play to Damiere Byrd. To be clear, if you can buy low on the rookie and afford to weather the storm, do it. But the Falcons pass catchers are unplayable right now and it’s difficult to see a light at the end of the tunnel.
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