Dynasty Risers & Fallers: Brian Robinson, Brandon Aiyuk, Damien Harris (2022 Fantasy Football)

Week 6 was a struggle for many, both on the football field and in our virtual box scores. Just four of the 13 games through Sunday night hit the over, leaving many fantasy teams falling short of expectations. With the bye weeks hitting and injuries becoming a major factor, it can be tough to feel confident in the lineups we’re setting on Sundays.

Even if this is the case for you and you’re down on your luck after six weeks, dynasty fantasy football is the gift that keeps on giving. There’s always something to build for and players to be scouted.

Here are this week’s dynasty risers and fallers.

Risers

Brian Robinson (RB – WAS)

Brian Robinson made his NFL debut in week 5, just 42 days after a robbery attempt left him with multiple gunshot wounds to his lower body. Following an emotional introduction, Robinson played only 29% of the Commanders’ offensive snaps but led the running back room with nine carries. In week 6, Robinson took the first snap on offense and played 47% in total. He carried the ball 17 times while Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic combined for seven, finishing with 60 yards and a touchdown. Robinson ceded the passing work to the other backs, but early downs belong to the rookie. His value will be somewhat reliant on touchdowns, but he should garner somewhere north of 10 carries per game, including goal-line work.

Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF)

Aiyuk led the 49ers’ wide receivers in snaps with (55), routes (39), and targets (11). He converted that usage into eight catches for 83 yards and two touchdowns, finishing as the week’s WR4 with 28.3 PPR points. Aiyuk has now seen eight or more targets in three games and four or less looks in the other three. It’s easy to attribute his usage to Deebo Samuel‘s role in the backfield, but Samuel only carried the ball twice, yet the offense seemed to emphasize Aiyuk’s involvement. He will likely continue to be a volatile fantasy option, but he’s more of a 1B in the passing game than he is a number 2.

Rondale Moore (WR – ARI)

Admittedly, I’ve never been a big believer in Rondale Moore and I’m not necessarily buying him now, but it’s impossible to deny his value boost. Moore leap-frogged AJ Green, playing in two wide receiver sets this week. He ended up leading the Cardinals with 70 snaps and 46 routes due to Marquise Brown’s ankle injury. The severity of Brown’s injury is unknown, but he’s expected to miss time and Moore will certainly be relied upon in his absence. Even with DeAndre Hopkins set to return next week, Moore appeasers to be a lock for two wide receiver sets and should be a focal point of the offense. His ADOT is still too low at 5.4, but if the Cardinals can get him more opportunities downfield to go with his target share, he will be a consistent fantasy option.

Daniel Bellinger (TE – NYG)

Bellinger posted his best fantasy score of the season on Sunday with 14.8 points, but there are more factors working in his favor than just the fantasy output. Prior to week 6, the rookie tight end was a rotational player despite starting for the Giants. On Sunday, however, Bellinger led the entire team in routes run and targets, with 26 and five, respectively. He played on 94% of the team’s snaps, turning in 38 yards and a touchdown. He’s also recorded the best PFF grade of any Giants pass catcher thus far at 74.5. Coming out of San Diego State, the knock-on Bellinger was minimal college production, but he showed off his athleticism at the combine. Now a full-time player for the Giants, who lack pass-catching playmakers, Bellinger is primed to make a splash in a shallow pool of tight ends.

 


Ken Walker
and Rhamondre Stevenson were included in this column last week, but both delivered and will continue to climb in value.

Fallers

Elijah Moore (WR – NYJ)

I was a big believer in Elijah Moore following his flashes of greatness as a rookie. He was the WR3 in PPR scoring from weeks 7 to 12 last year before suffering a season-ending injury, providing optimism that he would lead the Jets receiver room this season. Despite the team’s selection of Garett Wilson in the first round, reports out of camp overwhelmingly favored Moore as the Jets’ top receiver. In each of his first four games, Moore posted anywhere between 41 and 53 yards before tallying just 11 in week 5. If that was rock bottom, week 6 left Moore beneath the soil. His snaps (32) and routes (14) were second only to Corey Davis, but he did not see a single target come his way. Part of this can be attributed to the team attempting just 18 passes and deploying a heavy dose of Breece Hall, but it’s another layer of disappointment on top of an early-season letdown.

Clyde-Edwards Helaire (RB– KC)

Jerick McKinnon led the Chiefs backfield with 29 snaps while Edwards-Helaire played 28. Although CEH out-carried McKinnon nine to 2, it was McKinnon who led in targets, three to zero. The worse news is that McKinnon took the goal line snaps and Isiah Pacheco worked in more than he has in past weeks. The rookie played 10 snaps, carrying twice and seeing two targets. The majority of Edwards-Helaire’s production this season has come from his visits to the endzone and targets from Patrick Mahomes. There’s not much meat left on the bone when those are taken away, leaving CEH as an unreliable piece of a committee. He can still pay off in the high-scoring Chiefs offense, but it will be unpredictable. His long-term future is cloudy and it’s a given the team will be looking to add to the backfield next season.

Damien Harris (RB –NE)

It’s a tough break for a player to make the fallers list when he’s sidelined with an injury, but there’s no way around it. Damien Harris isn’t going to fade into oblivion, but it’s becoming clear that Rhamondre Stevenson is too good to take a back seat. Stevenson rushed for 76 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries with Harris out in week 6 and is now averaging 5.1 yards per carry. His 21 targets more than double Harris’ who hasn’t been as efficient on the ground, with 4.5 yards per carry. It was nearly a 50/50 split in carries before Harris went down, but it’s likely to shift further to Stevenson’s favor moving forward. Combine that with a lack of pass-catching, and Harris’ value needs a reset. He will be a free agent after the season, but so will other talented backs like Josh Jacobs and Miles Sanders, not to mention a talented incoming class of running backs that will be in demand.

Diontae Johnson (WR – PIT)

Diontae Johnson finished with 8.6 fantasy points on Sunday, his second game below double digits in the last three weeks. His best game this season featured 84 yards and 16.4 fantasy points. He tied with Chase Claypool for the team lead in targets with seven, but George Pickens was close behind with six. Johnson has made his money on a high volume of targets, but those are beginning to spread around more with the emergence of Pickens. Kenny Pickett left in the third quarter with a possible concussion, handing the keys back to Mitch Trubisky. It’s tough to take target shares to the bank with changes at quarterback, but it’s the second time in three weeks that he’s seen seven or less balls thrown his way. That’s a concern, especially in a struggling offense. An offense, by the way, that may have a new WR1 before long.

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