Dynasty Fantasy Football Risers & Fallers (2022)

Perhaps the most explosive week of the season thus far, Week 4 gave us a lot to chew on. Five of the Sunday games finished within a three-point differential, while nine games ended within one score, providing plenty of drama.

Adding to the excitement, we saw 23 non-QBs surpass 20 PPR points and five of those players clear 30 points. It was a busy week all around, and with the Lions and Seahawks combining for 93 points, the NFL world feels upside down in many ways.

Let’s sort out the dynasty picture with the latest risers and fallers.

Risers

Josh Jacobs (RB – LV)

The former first-round pick out of Alabama was being drafted as the RB27 in dynasty entering the season, and for a good reason. The team gave us every indication that they planned to utilize a running back by committee approach. Josh Jacobs, however, had other plans. Averaging just over 10 points per game through three weeks, Jacobs walloped that total on Sunday, piling up 34.5 fantasy points. He carried the ball 28 times, nine more than any other game this season, leading to 144 yards and two scores to go with five grabs for 31 yards.

It’s not surprising to see Jacobs handle the bulk of early-down duties. Still, perhaps the most encouraging aspect is that his route participation has increased weekly, topping out at 72% on Sunday. If he can sustain an every-down role, he will battle for RB1 status. On top of that, it’s a contract year for Jacobs after the club passed up his fifth-year option. I can think of a few good offenses that could maximize Jacobs’ skill set, making him a good buy for this season and beyond.

Miles Sanders (RB – PHI)

Not to be confused with Jacobs, Miles Sanders is also an upcoming free agent who was snubbed by the fantasy community. Coming off a season in which Sanders’ passport to the end zone had seemingly expired, he’s been busy traveling past the goal line this season. He made it there twice on Sunday, rushing 27 times for 134 yards while adding two receptions for 22 yards. It was a wet, rainy mess in Philadelphia, which aided the plans to rely on the running game, but the juice we saw from Sanders had nothing to do with the conditions. We can’t expect 29 touches or 29.6 fantasy points every week, but it’s an encouraging start to the season for Sanders, who has no less than 15 touches in any game this season.

George Pickens (WR – PIT)

Throughout the preseason, George Pickens became the trendiest name in the dynasty community while consistently flashing big play potential. After a quiet start to the season, a one-handed grab in Week 3 put Pickens back on the map. He followed that up with six receptions on eight targets for 102 yards in Week 4. Although he was unable to find the end zone, his usage and 16.2 fantasy points are signs of progress.

Per Nathan Jahnke of PFF, Pickens was targeted on 28.6% of his routes in the first half and 33.3% in the second half, compared to 12.9% through the first three weeks. He played two fewer snaps than Chase Claypool and 12 less than Diontae Johnson but doubled each of them up on targets, eight to four. It was always unlikely that Pickens would immediately live up to the preseason hype, but it’s extremely encouraging to see him gaining momentum early in the season. The likely change at quarterback is also a boon for Pickens, making him a clear riser.

Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)

It’s full steam ahead for Breece Hall, who is taking over the Jets backfield. He out-snapped Michael Carter 46 to 31 and carried the ball 17 times to Carter’s nine, but the best news for Hall is that he also garnered more work in the passing game. He ran 26 routes and saw six targets compared to 15 and two for Carter. He’s now been targeted the second most of any running back and looks like a lynchpin in New York’s offense going forward. In addition to the usage, Hall looks good with the ball in his hands. He compiled 66 rushing yards and a touchdown on Sunday, totaling 15.8 fantasy points. It’s the highest fantasy output of his young career, but he’s cleared 10 PPR points in every game this season and will be in the RB1 mix before long.

David Njoku (TE – CLE)

Njoku is playing over 90% of snaps, participating in nearly 70% of routes, and is being targeted on nearly 30% of those routes. His 17 targets across the last two weeks are third-most behind the two best tight ends in the game, Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews. It often takes years for tight ends to realize their potential in the NFL, and the time has come for Njoku. Although his 9.7-point total and TE13 finish on the week are nothing special, the volume is intriguing, and his 73 yards mark back-to-back weeks of solid production.

Dameon Pierce (RB – HOU)

Pierce made this column last week, but how could I not get his name here? A big chunk of his 131 rushing yards came on a 75-yard touchdown scamper, but he looks explosive. The only thing holding him back from truly unlocking his ceiling is Rex Burkhead. Yes, seriously.

Fallers

Michael Carter (RB – NYJ)

With the rise of Breece Hall comes the inevitable fall of Michael Carter. There’s not much to add here that wasn’t stated in Hall’s section, but Carter is slipping into handcuff territory. If you’re rostering him, you were likely expecting this, at least.

Antonio Gibson (RB – WAS)

I put together a short rant about Antonio Gibson’s value on the FantasyPros dynasty podcast in August, firing warning shots to those who rostered Gibson. Although a nice start to the season amongst Brian Robinson‘s unfortunate situation kept Gibson afloat, he’s beginning to fall back into running back purgatory. He rushed 13 times for 49 scoreless yards on Sunday, adding three receptions for 14 yards. He’s now posted rushing totals of 58, 38, 28, and 49, with his 72 receiving yards in Week 1 standing as an outlier in an otherwise pedestrian stat sheet.

J.D. McKissic out-snapped Gibson 38 to 30, ran 26 routes to Gibson’s 12 and carried the ball eight times, just five fewer than Gibson. On top of that, Jonathan Williams recorded five carries, and reports suggest that Brian Robinson could be activated this week. Gibson’s dynasty stock has been a bit of a rollercoaster, and I’m afraid we’re headed for another downturn.

Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL)

It’s difficult to include Pitts on this list as I love the player, but his lack of production is impossible to ignore. His snap share is decreasing every week as he played just 34 in Week 3, getting out-snapped by teammate Parker Hesse. Additionally, Pitts sports the highest average depth of target (aDOT) — 15.4 — of any tight end in the league, yet his catchable target rate (55%) comes in at 34^th. Essentially, he’s playing a limited number of snaps and being used as a big play threat down field, while playing alongside a quarterback who struggles to throw the ball downfield. It’s a recipe for disaster and unfortunate development for a generational talent. I’m certainly not suggesting you sell low, but it might take a quarterback upgrade to unlock his talents.

Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS)

McLaurin is another player whose talent I am high on, but unfortunately, talent doesn’t always translate to fantasy success. He recorded just two catches for 15 yards on Sunday and was out-targeted by Curtis Samuel, seven to six. The production hasn’t been awful this season, with yardage totals of 58, 75, and 102 entering Week 4, but it’s clear that he’s not close to taking the next step that many of us had hoped for. The narrative entering the season was that McLaurin would finally get an upgrade at quarterback, even if it was in the form of Carson Wentz. But the erratic quarterback hasn’t elevated McLaurin to this point, and with Samuel and Jahan Dotson being heavily involved, there’s nothing to suggest that will change any time soon.