Week 4 NFL DFS Primer: Dolphins at Bengals Thursday Night Showdown Slate (2022)

The Dolphins won an AFC East battle against the Bills on Sunday. Now, they’re attempting to avoid an emotional letdown on a short week against the Bengals after they ended their Super Bowl hangover with a win in Week 3. Both offenses are top-heavy and have a narrow passing tree. So, how should DFS gamers handle their roster construction for this week’s Thursday Night Football showdown contest?

Check out our top player prop bet picks for Thursday Night Football

Game: Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals

Spread: CIN -4.0 Points

Over/Under: 47.0 Points

Dolphins Analysis: Any thought that Mike McDaniel would deploy a run-first offense because of his background as a running-game coordinator has been dashed. The Dolphins have attempted 52 passes and 32 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts this year. Tua Tagovailoa has thrived in the offense, averaging 308.3 passing yards per game. He's also completed 71.3% of his passes with an NFL-high 82.8 QBR, eight touchdowns, two interceptions, and 8.98 Adjusted Net Yards Per Pass Attempt (ANY/A), per Pro-Football-Reference.

Tua has a challenging matchup this week, though. According to Football Outsiders, the Bengals are eighth in pass defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Still, Tagovailoa is a stellar option thanks to his speedy wideouts, efficiency and pass-happy offensive environment.

However, the Dolphins might test Cincinnati's run defense, despite it ranking ninth in rush defense DVOA. The Bengals are without run-stuffing defensive tackle D.J. Reader. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), he's earned the third-highest run-defense grade among interior defensive linemen who've played at least 50 snaps this year.

Chase Edmonds was Miami's star in the backfield last week, punching in two rushing touchdowns. Still, the backfield rotation has been tight. Edmonds leads Miami's backfield with a 53% snap share. Still, Raheem Mostert has played 51% of the team's snaps. Additionally, Mostert had a 56% snap share last week compared to 44% for Edmonds.

The route distribution has been close between Edmonds and Mostert, too. According to PFF, Edmonds has run 53 routes, and Mostert has run 48 routes this year. As a result, Mostert could easily overtake Edmonds for the most useful fantasy back this week. So, taking the discount to use him has the added benefit of avoiding a recency bias that fuels an uptick in roster percentage for Edmonds compared to Mostert.

The target distribution for the Dolphins has been hyper-concentrated. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Jaylen Waddle (30 targets) and Tyreek Hill (29 targets) have accounted for 59 targets on Miami's 103 pass attempts. The next-closest mark on the team is Edmonds's eight targets. Waddle and Hill have both balled out as well, hauling in 19 receptions for 342 yards and three touchdowns and 21 receptions for 317 yards and two touchdowns, respectively.

Further, they've both been used vertically. According to PFF, Hill has had a 10.0-yard average depth of target (aDoT), and Waddle's had an 11.6-yard aDoT. So, it's splitting hairs when evaluating their performances this year. Waddle's salary is a pinch lower at both DFS outlets. So, that's a checkmark in the pros column for him. However, Hill has a narrative-driven case that complements his outstanding numbers.

The other featured players on Miami's table are punts. Durham Smythe is the most intriguing punt from either team at FanDuel. He's been targeted on six of his 39 routes, securing five receptions for 42 yards. Further, Smythe ran 10 routes compared to only seven for Mike Gesicki in Week 3.

Trent Sherfield and Alec Ingold are sub-$2,000 choices on DraftKings. Sherfield is more viable if Cedrick Wilson is ruled out. Still, he's a defensible option even if Wilson suits up. Sherfield has reached double-digit routes in all three games this year and caught a pass in each, albeit for a paltry 22 yards on four receptions.

Meanwhile, Ingold hasn't been used as only a blocking fullback. Instead, he's been targeted five times and handled three rush attempts, including one inside the five-yard line. Finally, Ingold's passing-game usage has been interesting. According to PFF, he's been targeted three times from zero yards to nine yards downfield, once from 10 yards to 19 yards and once 20-plus yards downfield. Of course, Ingold's blocking is his most important skill in Miami's offense. Still, McDaniel's former fullback in San Francisco, Kyle Juszczyk, would occasionally pop up in the box scores, and it appears Ingold might do the same.

Bengals Analysis: Joe Burrow had his best game of the young season last week. He passed for 275 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions in Week 3, taking only two sacks. In addition, Burrow had a sizzling 9.31 Adjusted Yards Per Pass Attempt (AY/A).

Fortunately, he has a dreamy matchup for racking up more chunk plays. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Dolphins are tied for the sixth-most Net Yards Per Pass Attempt (7.0 NY/A) allowed this season. Miami is also 29th in pass defense DVOA.

Also, while the Dolphins have leaned heavily into the pass this year, Cincinnati has taken it to a greater extreme. Cincinnati's non-quarterbacks have attempted only 23 rushes in neutral game scripts, far fewer than the 63 passes they've chucked in that game script. Thus, there is a ton of meat on the bone for Cincinnati's co-alpha wideouts.

Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins have both played at a high level together. However, Jacob Gibbs from CBS Fantasy and SportsLine tweeted some eye-brow-raising numbers from when Chase and Higgins shared the field.

So, Higgins isn't merely the Robin to Chase as Batman. As a result, Higgins is the most attractive choice of the stud wideouts in this game since he's underpriced relative to his usage and excellence. Still, both elite receivers are excellent choices.

The matchup is challenging for Cincinnati's running game on Thursday night. The Dolphins are seventh in rush defense DVOA. In addition, according to Pro-Football-Reference, they've allowed the third-fewest rushing yards (168) to running backs at a tiny 3.65 yards per carry.

The matchup is a deterrent for using Joe Mixon. Further, his grotesque 2.8 yards per carry and ankle issue are a concern, especially with the quick turnaround.

Mixon isn't in danger of missing this game. Still, the ankle issue might help explain his struggles on the ground. Unfortunately, it also seems reasonable to consider the possibility of aggravating it during the game. So, it's a sound move to fade Mixon, despite elite usage.

Samaje Perine also isn't an attractive option in Cincinnati's backfield. According to PFF, Perine has run only 35 routes compared to Mixon's 87. In addition, Perine has toted the rock only 11 times compared to 58 carries for Mixon.

Still, the Bengals might successfully attack the Dolphins with their running backs in the passing game. According to Football Outsiders, Miami's opponents have thrown 9.7 passes per game to their running backs for 56.7 receiving yards per contest, resulting in the Dolphins ranking 27th in DVOA defending running backs in the passing game.

So, suppose Zac Taylor has noticed Miami's deficiencies defending running backs as pass-catching options. Maybe, he'll use second-year back Chris Evans for a few designed plays. Or, what if Mixon's ankle acts up and he is forced out of the contest? Then, Evans could serve as a change-of-pace back and siphon some of Perine's passing-down work.

Unfortunately, Evans has run only two routes this year. He also ran just 65 routes last year. Still, Evans has had 2.31 Yards Per Route Run (Y/RR) in his young career. According to PFF, Evans had the fourth-highest receiving grade and third-most Yards Per Route Run (2.11 Y/RR) out of 74 running backs targeted at least 15 times in the regular season and postseason in 2021. So, Evans has the requisite receiving chops to excel if called upon. However, the second-year back isn't a consideration in showdown cash-game lineups. Gamers who are multi-entering tournaments also shouldn't go overboard using Evans. However, unique dart throws delivering unexpected performances are necessary for winning a tournament with a unique lineup that doesn't chop with many other gamers. So, Evans is an exciting galaxy-brain pick.

Final Thoughts: The matchup is easier for Cincinnati's passing attack. Therefore, I prefer double-stacking Cincinnati's two supremely talented wideouts with Burrow instead of Miami's talented duo with Tua. Still, using one of Miami's speedy wideouts or Tagovailoa as a bring-back is advisable. But, of course, that means punting one spot on FD and two on DK. It's never a comfortable feeling using punts, but it's the correct decision on this top-heavy single-game slate.

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant - which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections - to our Waiver Wire Assistant - that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much - we've got you covered this fantasy football season.

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.