The Week 4 slate has one less game than the Week 2 and 3 slates since there’s a morning contest in London. Additionally, the weather might be an unusual wrinkle this week. First, I hope everyone enduring Hurricane Ian remains safe. That’s the important thing in the grand scheme of things. However, DFS gamers are encouraged to monitor the weather conditions for the NFL games on the east coast. It’s unwise to overreact to the weather, but sustained high-speed wind and rain would hurt passing production. Finally, before proceeding to this week’s suggested choices, the defenses are largely unexciting this week. So, there are more suggestions than usual, and many are featured with their team’s running back as a correlation play.
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
Week 4 Matchups
Game: Cleveland Browns at Atlanta Falcons
Spread: CLE -1.5 Points
Over/Under: 48.5 Points
Browns Analysis: The Browns are favored, and that's a recipe for Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt toting the rock. Cleveland is a run-first team at its core. When they've been tied or leading this year, Chubb has rushed 57 times, Hunt has rushed 32 times and Jacoby Brissett has attempted only 74 passes. Chubb leads the NFL in rushing yards per game (113.7) and should shine in an excellent matchup.
According to Football Outsiders, the Falcons are 27th in rush defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). The favorable matchup is also applicable for Hunt. In addition, Hunt has receiving value which can help him if the Browns are forced to air it out. Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Hunt has run 51 routes, and Chubb has run only 39. Still, Chubb is the more desirable option. Yet, Hunt is a nifty value at FanDuel.
Falcons Analysis: The Falcons are my favorite contrarian stack this week. Marcus Mariota is the most intriguing value quarterback because of his talented young weapons and rushing ability. The athletic veteran quarterback has found paydirt in two of three contests and popped off for 72 yards on 12 attempts in Week 1. Mariota also hasn't embarrassed himself as a passer, ranking 12th among qualified quarterbacks in Adjusted Net Yards Per Pass Attempt (6.09 ANY/A), per Pro-Football-Reference.
Drake London has instantly asserted his presence in the NFL. The big-bodied wideout has commanded targets and has done damage with them. According to Sports Info Solutions (SIS), London has the fifth-highest Target share (32.9%). The rookie wideout has scored two touchdowns, a two-point conversion, and averaged 5.3 receptions and 71.3 receiving yards per game. So, the FantasyPros optimizer loves him, ranking him with the WR4 value score at DraftKings and the WR2 value score at FD.
Kyle Pitts got off the schneid last week, setting season-highs for targets (eight), receptions (five) and receiving yards (87). It wasn't a boom week, but that could be coming. According to SIS, Pitts's 16.8-yard Average Depth of Target (aDOT) has been the seventh-deepest mark among players targeted at least 10 times. Finally, Pitts is projected as the TE3 at both DFS outlets. So, he's a stellar selection.
Game: Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens
Spread: BUF -3.0 Points
Over/Under: 51.0 Points
Bills Analysis: The Bills at Ravens is the most fantasy-friendly game on the slate. First, Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs are projected as the QB1 and WR1 at both DFS outlets. Additionally, Allen has the QB3 value score at DK and QB1 value score at FD, and Diggs has the WR6 value score at DK and WR4 value score at FD. So, they're both projected to ball out.
The Bills have been exceptionally pass-happy this year. The Bills have attempted 115 passes and only 36 rushes by non-Allen players in neutral game scripts this year. The matchup is mouthwatering for Allen, Diggs and a forthcoming receiver, too. The Ravens have allowed the most passing yards per game (353.3) and no one else has allowed more than 300.0 passing yards per game. In addition, according to Football Outsiders, they've allowed the most receiving yards per game (131.7) to No. 1 wide receivers.
Baltimore has also been smoked by No. 2 wideouts, allowing the most receiving yards per game (96.3) to them. So, Gabe Davis should eat. Further, Davis's vertical usage is a perfect fit for this matchup. As I noted at numberFire earlier this week, Baltimore has allowed 17 completions on 26 passes that traveled at least 15 air yards for 512 yards and two touchdowns. And, again, Davis is perfect for this matchup. According to SIS, Davis has had a 13.1-yard aDOT this season. The optimizer has Davis projected as the WR6 value at FD this week. Finally, Davis's status needs to be monitored this week after he sat out practice on Thursday. Still, he was a limited participant on Wednesday and played a whopping 96% of Buffalo's snaps in Week 3.
Ravens Analysis: Lamar Jackson has been the MVP frontrunner after a white-hot start to the year. He's averaging 249.7 passing yards per game with 10 touchdown passes. However, Jackson's passing production is only half of the story. He's also tied for fifth in rushing yards per game (81.0), adding two more scores on the ground.
Jackson might have a challenging matchup if the Bills get back some of their injured defensive players. Nevertheless, this game is projected to produce a ton of points, and Jackson has a massive ceiling.
Baltimore's passing offense has primarily gone through one man. Superstar tight end Mark Andrews is the NFL leader in Target share (36.5%). He's also tied for second in touchdown receptions (three), tied for sixth in receptions per game (7.3) and 14th in receiving yards per game (81.7). As a result, he's the no-brainer TE1 at both outlets this week, owning the TE1 value score at FD and the TE2 value score at DK. So, he's the no-doubt best stacking option with Jackson or bring-back pick for a Bills stack.
Isaiah Likely is a nifty tournament choice. Rashod Bateman and Devin Duvernay have been big-play dependent behind Andrews. Yet, Baltimore's passing game could benefit from another option emerging. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Likely is third on the Ravens in targets (11). In addition, per PFF, Likely has run the fifth-most routes (42). So, if the Ravens have to air it out in catch-up mode, Likely could hear his name called. Unfortunately, his floor is zero points. Still, getting a potentially overlooked piece of this shootout is appealing.
Game: Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys
Spread: DAL -3.0 Points
Over/Under: 41.5 Points
Commanders Analysis: Dallas's defense is legitimate, and Carson Wentz wilted in the face of pressure last week. The game's total is uninviting, too. So, gamers can fade the Commanders this week.
Cowboys Analysis: Cooper Rush deserves a hat tip for winning two starts and playing well enough to keep the offense afloat. Still, despite his stellar production, they're not a high-octane offense with him running the show, making it undesirable to pay CeeDee Lamb's sizable salary.
Game: Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions
Spread: DET -4.0 Points
Over/Under: 48.0 Points
Seahawks Analysis: The Seahawks finally flipped the switch on their offense. They attempted 44 passes, and their running backs attempted 21 rushes last week. So, Seattle kicked up the pace and play volume, boosting their DFS value. The new development is exciting for Rashaad Penny in a dreamy matchup.
The Lions are 24th in rush defense DVOA. They've also yielded the most rushing touchdowns (six) to running backs. Meanwhile, Penny has had an eye-catching role in Seattle's backfield committee, even if his box-score production hasn't generated excitement.
Kenneth Walker joined the backfield mix in Week 2, but Penny has spearheaded the backfield. Penny has run 36 routes in the last two weeks compared to only 28 for Seattle's other backs. Further, he's handled 20 of 33 rushes by the backfield in the previous two games. Thus, Penny's backfield role is significant enough to smash in a dreamy matchup, making him an excellent tournament selection at both DFS providers.
Lions Analysis: Amon-Ra St. Brown hasn't practiced this week while tending to an ankle injury. Therefore, his playing status is up in the air. However, Friday's practice will truly indicate his status this week. ARSB is a dream boat if he plays this week, though. He's the WR3 at DK and WR4 with the WR5 value score at FD in the optimizer. ARSB has been a target sponge, soaking up a 30.6% Target share and parlaying his looks into 7.7 receptions and 84.3 receiving yards per game with three touchdowns. The talented wideout has also rushed for 68 yards. Thus, ARSB's usage is elite.
The runway for Jamaal Williams to be a bell-cow with D'Andre Swift banged up is clear. Swift hasn't been ruled out, but head coach Dan Campbell has discussed the possibility of holding Swift out until after the team's Week 6 bye. So, it's likely Swift will miss this game.
Williams has already been productive while splitting time with Swift, amassing 65.7 scrimmage yards per game, 1.3 receptions per game and scoring four touchdowns. Now, there's potential for an uptick in pass-catching work. Additionally, Williams is game-script proof as Detroit's lead back. So, he's unsurprisingly an optimizer darling. Williams is projected as the RB9 at DK and FD with the RB1 value score at the former and the RB7 value score at the latter.
The veteran running back is a no-brainer cash-game choice at DK. Still, there's some risk of Detroit's offense falling on its face this week if ARSB is out or struggles while playing through an injury. Further, D.J. Chark slid from a limited participant in Wednesday's practice to getting held out of Thursday's practice. Thus, Williams shouldn't be a shoo-in for tournament teams.
Game: Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans
Spread: LAC -5.5 Points
Over/Under: 44.0 Points
Chargers Analysis: The Chargers are untouchable presently. Justin Herbert is playing through a rib injury, and their stud left tackle, Rashawn Slater, is out for the season.
Texans Analysis: Nico Collins is a salary cap-friendly tournament dart. He's had a 12.5-yard aDOT and earned a target on a rock-solid 18.6% of his routes.
Game: Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
Spread: IND -3.0 Points
Over/Under: 42.5 Points
Titans Analysis: Speculation is the name of the game in GPPs. As a result, Treylon Burks is an exciting choice this week. Sure, he had only one reception for 13 yards on two targets last week. However, he led the Titans in routes (27). Finally, the Titans might need Burks and the passing game to step up in a nightmare matchup for their running game. The Colts are second in rush defense DVOA and have held running backs to a paltry 2.51 yards per carry.
Colts Analysis: Indianapolis's receivers have a superb matchup this week. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Titans have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards (614) and have tied for the most touchdown receptions (six) to wideouts this year.
Pittman is a ball hog. He's been targeted on 23.2% of his routes. Pittman has also been highly productive, averaging 8.5 receptions and 96.5 receiving yards per game, splashing paydirt once. Finally, Pittman has the most significant matchup advantage on this week's main slate, per PFF's wide receivers versus cornerbacks matchup chart.
Alec Pierce and Ashton Dulin, in that order, are GPP dice-roll-worthy. The Titans have been flamed deep. Tennessee's opposing quarterbacks have completed 12 of 21 pass attempts traveling at least 15 air yards for 392 yards and two touchdowns. Both Pierce and Dulin have wheels. And more importantly, they've been used deep, with a 12.4-yard aDOT and 13.6-yard aDOT, respectively.
In Week 1 and Week 3, Pierce ran 56 routes, and Dulin ran just 23. Meanwhile, Parris Campbell ran 82 routes in those contests. However, Campell also had a pathetic six targets, five receptions and 47 scoreless yards. Will Frank Reich be rational and drop Campbell down the depth chart? That remains to be seen. Still, it has been clear that Matt Ryan likes throwing to Dulin. The small-school wideout has been targeted on an eye-popping 30.4% of his routes. Thus, it's not crazy to fire a few bullets on Pierce or Dulin in GPPs in the hope Campbell has played his way to the pine.
Game: Chicago Bears at New York Giants
Spread: NYG -3.0 Points
Over/Under: 39.5 Points
Bears Analysis: David Montgomery hasn't practiced this week. So, Khalil Herbert is listed on the table in anticipation of Montgomery missing this week's game. Herbert was remarkably productive last week, rushing for 157 yards and two touchdowns. He also caught both targets for 12 yards. The second-year back can maintain his momentum this week against a cushy defense. The Giants are 28th in rush defense DVOA. So, Herbert is projected as the RB13 at both DFS providers and has the RB5 value score at DK.
The Bears DST is also a value at DK. In fact, they have the highest value score. According to StatHead, Daniel Jones has had the fifth-highest sack rate (8.15%) among 35 quarterbacks with at least 400 pass attempts since 2020. Jones has also thrown 31 interceptions and lost 21 fumbles in 41 games in his career.
Giants Analysis: The resurgence of Saquon Barkley has been a joy to watch. The do-it-all back leads the NFL in scrimmage yards (408). He's also scored two touchdowns and averaged 4.3 receptions per game. So, Barkley's usage makes him game-script-proof. Nonetheless, he has a tasty matchup. The Bears are 22nd in rush defense DVOA.
Further, Big Blue is a favorite. So, Barkley might tote the rock a ton while protecting a lead. As a result, he's projected as the RB3 at DK and FD, with the RB2 value score at the former and the RB1 value score at the latter.
Sadly, Sterling Shepard is out for the rest of the year with a knee injury. Further, Kadarius Toney and Wan'Dale Robinson haven't practiced this week. Therefore, it looks like Richie James and David Sills will headline Big Blue's receiving corps. James is third on the Giants in routes (86), and Sills is fourth (84). The former has done more with his playing time, averaging 4.7 receptions and 48.7 receiving yards per game.
Sills has primarily been a cardio king, hauling in only 1.7 receptions for 19.0 receiving yards per game. Although, Shepard leaves a meaningful vacancy in the passing attack. Additionally, Sills is the only healthy receiver for the G-Men who's been targeted in the red zone. So, Sills is a defensible punt on DK at the minimum salary.
Finally, Big Blue's DST is an attractive option against a sack and turnover-prone quarterback.
Game: Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles
Spread: PHI -6.5 Points
Over/Under: 47.0 Points
Jaguars Analysis: Zay Jones was initially included as a featured player. Unfortunately, he was added to the injury list with an ankle injury and missed practice on Thursday.
The matchup against Philadelphia's secondary is a nightmare. So, even if Jones suits up, he's an easy fade at less than 100%.
Eagles Analysis: I prefer to invest heavily in the Bills at Ravens. However, most DFS gamers will think similarly. As a result, pivoting to Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert is appealing in tournaments. Hurts is projected as the QB2 at DK and FD and projected to be on only 1-5% of rosters at the former. Meanwhile, Brown is projected as the WR4 at DK and the WR3 at FD, and Goedert is projected as the TE4 at both sites. Philadelphia's offense has been cooking with gasoline, making them an appealing swerve from the Bills and Ravens in GPPs. Simply, Hurts, Brown and Goedert are game-theory-fueled suggestions.
Game: New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers
Spread: PIT -3.0 Points
Over/Under: 41.5 Points
Jets Analysis: It might be time for a Breece Hall breakout game. He's efficiently had 5.3 yards per carry and 7.8 yards per reception. Additionally, according to PFF, out of 53 running backs with at least five targets this year, Hall is ninth with 1.68 Yards Per Route Run (Y/RR).
The fly in the ointment for Hall has been modest usage. However, last week was encouraging for an increasing role. The rookie back played a season-high 51% of New York's snaps, owning a higher snap share than Michael Carter (49%) for the first time this year. Further, Hall ran 27 routes versus 19 for Carter in Week 3. It can be profitable to speculate on a role change if Hall gets the rock more often this week.
And, of course, the matchup is a plus, too. The Steelers are 17th in rush defense DVOA and have allowed 10th-most receiving yards per game (43.3) to running backs this season. The game script might also be neutral for most of the contest since the spread is small. Finally, the Jets might lean on the run heavily in Zach Wilson's season debut. In Wilson's final seven games of his rookie season (Week 12 through Week 18) after returning from an injury, the Jets attempted 140 passes and 135 rushes with their running backs when the scoring margin ranged from trailing by seven up to leading by any amount of points. Thus, it was nearly a 50/50 split in neutral or good game scripts in Wilson's return last year.
Sadly, there's too much risk of Carter soaking up work to feel good about Hall in cash games. Still, Hall is an exciting speculative pick in GPPs.
Steelers Analysis: The Steelers are a joke offensively. Pittsburgh has scored four offensive touchdowns this season. They've also had more than 300 yards on offense only once, totaling 308 yards last week. As a result, Pittsburgh's offense is a fantasy wasteland.
Game: Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers
Spread: CAR -1.5 Points
Over/Under: 42.5 Points
Cardinals Analysis: The Cardinals are the highest-value defense on FD. Arizona will benefit from facing a punchless offense. Carolina has run the second-fewest plays (163) and has generated the 10th-fewest yards per play (5.0). The Panthers have also allowed nine sacks and turned the ball over three times.
Panthers Analysis: The Panthers are a trainwreck. To the surprise of no one, Baker Mayfield hasn't lifted Carolina's offense. Now, Christian McCaffrey is dealing with a quad injury. As a result, gamers are advised to stay far away from the Panthers in DFS.
Game: New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers
Spread: GB -9.5 Points
Over/Under: 40.5 Points
Patriots Analysis: The Patriots haven't ruled out Mac Jones with a "severe" high ankle sprain. Still, it appears likely he'll be out, and Brian Hoyer will start. So, whether Hoyer or an injured Jones start, it's a bad situation. New England's offense will likely struggle mightily, reflected in their 15.5-point implied total. Yuck. Stay away.
Packers Analysis: The Packers are massive favorites this week, which could be outstanding for AJ Dillon. The following table shows the rushing distribution for the Packers when leading by at least seven points since last year.
Aaron Jones has been more efficient than Dillon. Still, the potential volume for Dillon if the Packers steamroll the Patriots is alluring. Finally, the matchup is tantalizing. The Patriots are 29th in rush defense DVOA.
Romeo Doubs is another attractive option from the Packers. He's tied for the highest value score among receivers at DK. In two games (Week 2 and Week 3) with Allen Lazard active, Doubs has been second among Green Bay's receivers in routes (47) and first in targets (11), receptions (10) and receiving yards (100). Doubs also scored a touchdown last week. Matt Harmon of Yahoo! Fantasy and Reception Perception spoke glowingly about Doubs' work this year on a podcast episode on Thursday. The rookie wideout looks like an ascending talent, and his salary hasn't caught up on DK.
Game: Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders
Spread: LV -2.5 Points
Over/Under: 45.5 Points
Broncos Analysis: According to SIS, Courtland Sutton is second in Intended Air Yards (446). He's also had a juicy 27.5% Target share. So, Sutton's usage has been outstanding. Unfortunately, Russell Wilson hasn't been sharp. So, many of the air yards have been empty and misleading. Still, Sutton has averaged 6.3 receptions and 97.0 receiving yards per game. As a result, Sutton isn't a terrible play and was a tough cut from this piece.
Raiders Analysis: Denver's defense is fifth in total DVOA and ranks fourth in pass defense DVOA and eighth in rush defense DVOA. Conversely, the Raiders offense has been more good than great. The same has been true for prized trade acquisition Davante Adams. The stud wideout destroyed the Chargers for 10 receptions, 141 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. However, Adams had had only seven receptions on 17 targets for 48 yards in two subsequent games. Adams has salvaged his inefficiency with a touchdown in each game. Regardless, the bar is higher than scoring a touchdown on a low-yardage total at Adams' salary on DK and FD.
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant - which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections - to our Waiver Wire Assistant - that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much - we've got you covered this fantasy football season.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
