The Broncos are home underdogs after having roughly as bad of a first two weeks as possible, short of losing a player to a significant injury. Nathaniel Hackett has been Rich Kotite-level incompetent while leading the Broncos. Meanwhile, the 49ers lost in a monsoon in Week 1 and earned a win in Week 2, rallying around last year’s starting quarterback after Trey Lance suffered a season-ending ankle injury on San Francisco’s second drive. The 49ers have looked like the better team and are road favorites. So, how should gamers handle roster building with this information? The following primer will help narrow the player pool down while concluding with roster structure suggestions.
Game: San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos
Spread: SF -1.5 Points
Over/Under: 44.0 Points
49ers Analysis: Jimmy Garoppolo was rock-solid last week. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), he's earned their 16th best passing grade out of 34 quarterbacks with at least 20 dropbacks. They credited him with one big-time throw and zero turnover-worthy plays.
Additionally, Jimmy G cut it loose more than in recent years. According to Sports Info Solutions (SIS), he had an average throw depth of 7.7 yards downfield, his longest since an 8.6-yard average throw depth in 2018, and notably deeper than his 6.3-yard marks in 2019 and 2020 while slightly up from last year's 7.2-yard average throw depth. San Francisco's offense is filled with players who can steamroll the competition after the catch. However, a more aggressive Garoppolo would be exciting, enhancing his ceiling.
Deebo Samuel is San Francisco's premier skill-position player. He's more than just an explosive receiver. Sure, that's a massive part of his game. However, in his last five games without Elijah Mitchell, Samuel has averaged 6.2 rush attempts and 46 rushing yards per game. Samuel has also scored five touchdowns in games without Mitchell. Unfortunately, he's slipped significantly in the passing game in those contests, averaging only 3.6 targets, 2.4 receptions and 30.6 receiving yards per game. Thus, Samuel has been big-play dependent. He's not a must-use player but has a massive ceiling.
Perhaps, Brandon Aiyuk would be the most significant beneficiary of Garoppolo taking more shots. Per PFF, he's had an average depth of target (aDoT) of 11.3 yards this year and had a 10.4-yard aDoT in 2021. Aiyuk was outstanding after working his way out of Kyle Shanahan's doghouse last year. In his final 11 games of the 2021 season (postseason included), he had 68 targets, 47 receptions, 720 receiving yards, four touchdowns and 2.16 Yards Per Route Run (Y/RR). Aiyuk was also stellar last week, catching five of seven targets for 63 yards and 2.74 Y/RR. As a result, Aiyuk is my favorite option on this slate, salary considered.
Gamers can comfortably use George Kittle in his season debut since he won't face any restrictions. Kittle was superb in 15 games Jimmy G started and didn't leave early with an injury last year, averaging 63.67 receiving yards per game with 2.37 Y/RR and earning a target on 22.8% of his routes. He can come out of the gate hot in a potentially favorable matchup. In Week 1, Colby Parkinson (2-2-43-1), Will Dissly (3-43-1) and Noah Fant (3-16-0) combined for eight receptions for 102 yards and two touchdowns against Denver's defense. The trio isn't in the same tax bracket for talent as Kittle. Therefore, Kittle should have his way with the Broncos.
Jeff Wilson played 49% of San Francisco's offensive snaps last week. However, he ran only 10 routes on 25 dropbacks. Still, Wilson had two receptions for 19 yards. He also carried the ball 18 times for 84 yards. As a result, Wilson is San Francisco's most attractive running back. Additionally, he can pile up carries protecting a lead if the 49ers have a good game script.
Rookie Tyrion Davis-Price also had 14 carries last week. Unfortunately, he's hurt, leaving a vacancy for another running back to emerge. The 49ers signed Marlon Mack off of the practice squad. However, undrafted rookie Jordan Mason has been with the team all offseason. According to PFF, Mason led the 49ers with 94 rushing yards in the preseason, forcing five missed tackles on only 19 attempts. Sadly, he doesn't have the most exciting workout metrics. Still, Mason's preseason showing was encouraging, making him a viable punt on DraftKings.
Broncos Analysis: Denver's offense has been stuck in the mud against lesser defenses than San Francisco's. Russell Wilson hasn't seamlessly transitioned to his new team. According to PFF, he's ranked 23rd out of 34 quarterbacks with at least 20 dropbacks in their passing grade. PFF has also graded only two of his throws as big-time and two as turnover-worthy plays.
Thus, Wilson shouldn't be a shoo-in for DFS lineups. Still, he can be busy if the team falls behind. Further, Denver might succeed more through the air than on the ground. San Francisco has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game (67.5) at the lowest yards per attempt (2.6).
Javonte Williams is talented enough to make the most of a challenging matchup. He's rumbled for 118 yards on 22 attempts, forcing seven missed tackles and ripping off five runs of 10-plus yards, per PFF.
However, Williams' two most encouraging things are his playing time and passing-game work. The second-year running back had a 65% snap share to Melvin Gordon's 32% snap share in Week 2. In addition, Williams has run 48 routes versus just 22 for Gordon. Williams has also been targeted 15 times, securing 12 receptions for 75 yards. Thus, he's game-script proof.
Courtland Sutton is Denver's lead passing-game option, pacing the team in routes (77), targets (18) and receiving yards (194). Additionally, according to SIS, Sutton has had the third-most Intended Air Yards (340). Unfortunately, though, not all air yards are created equal. Many of them were on inaccurate passes from Wilson. Nonetheless, Wilson's willingness to chuck it deep to his big-play wideout has been a plus.
Sutton's running mate Jerry Jeudy is expected to play this week.
Nevertheless, playing a banged-up wideout in a struggling passing attack against a top-shelf defense isn't exciting. So, gamers should fade Jeudy.
Albert Okwuegbunam and K.J. Hamler are the other intriguing options from the Broncos. Okwuegbunam hasn't shined in the box scores, but he's run the second-most routes (55) for the Broncos. Albert O has been comfortably ahead of Denver's other tight ends in routes, and being on the field and in a route is half the battle for scoring fantasy points. The third-year tight end also has the athletic profile to make big plays.
Hamler is also a potential home-run hitter. He was out last week but is seemingly trending toward playing this week after logging a full practice on Friday. In Week 1, Hamler had two targets at an average depth of 20.5 yards. So, he can pay off for gamers using him on their rosters on just one target.
Final Thoughts: It's difficult to get excited about the offensive product Denver has put on the field. Meanwhile, according to Football Outsiders, San Francisco's defense is fourth in total defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
The 49ers played well with Jimmy G at quarterback last week and will add Kittle to the mix this week. The game's spread is only 1.5 points, but it's not difficult to envision the 49ers boat racing the Broncos. As a result, I don't advise using more than two Broncos on DK rosters. Using five 49ers and only one Bronco is also a stellar decision.
Garoppolo is my favorite Captain/MVP with his full complement of weapons fleshing out the flex spots. Gamers can also use Wilson and Mason together if they expect a blowout. Further, on rosters with both backs, gamers should also use San Francisco's defense in the hopes they rack up sacks and turnovers while Wilson is forced to drop back in obvious passing situations.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
