The Chargers and Chiefs provided fans and fantasy gamers points and stats aplenty in two shootouts last year. Coincidentally, they each scored precisely 58 points across their two meetings. While some teams were sloppy in Week 1, the Chargers and Chiefs were locked in. The modest spread and high total suggest the books and bettors are expecting fireworks. So, which players should gamers use in showdown contests?
Game: Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: KC -4.0
Over/Under: 54.0 Points
The Chargers and Chiefs provided fans and fantasy gamers points and stats aplenty in two shootouts last year. Coincidentally, they each scored precisely 58 points across their two meetings. While some teams were sloppy in Week 1, the Chargers and Chiefs were locked in. The modest spread and high total suggest the books and bettors are expecting fireworks. So, which players should gamers use in showdown contests?
Game: Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: KC -4.0
Over/Under: 54.0 Points
Chargers Analysis: Justin Herbert didn't waste time picking up where he left off last year. He completed 26 of 34 passes for 279 yards and three touchdowns. The showing was promising for a game the Chargers spent most of the day comfortably leading. The Chargers and Raiders exchanged field goals for the only scores in the first quarter, and the Chargers took a seven-point lead early in the second quarter on a touchdown pass and successful point-after-attempt (PAT). The Chargers led by at least seven from that point until Davante Adams hauled in a touchdown with 4:32 in the fourth quarter.
So, the ceiling is much higher for Herbert's passing output in a game the Chargers are four-point underdogs. According to Sharp Football Stats, the Chargers were tied for the fourth-highest pass rate (61%) in neutral game scripts. Additionally, Herbert was busy and productive in two matchups against the Chiefs last year, attempting 76 passes and completing 48 for 517 yards, six touchdowns and only one interception. The young athletic quarterback also rushed for 32 yards on nine attempts. So, Herbert is the premier piece from the Chargers and an excellent candidate for the Captain/MVP spot.
Sadly, there are questions about Austin Ekeler's ceiling and offensive role after one game. Ekeler played only 49% of the Chargers' offensive snaps in Week 1. Last year, he played 64% of offensive snaps and reached at least 58% in 14 of 16 games. The Chargers spent a fourth-round pick in the NFL Draft on Isaiah Spiller. They also signed Sony Michel after the Dolphins cut him late in the offseason, perhaps signaling an intention to reduce Ekeler's massive workload.
The counterpoint is the team might have had an eye on the quick turnaround playing in the Thursday Night Football contest in Week 2. But, unfortunately, Ekeler didn't mention a Week 1 pitch count with an eye on the Thursday Night Football game in this week's episode of Ekeler's Edge. Instead, ekeler mentioned the team feeling out a running back rotation and referenced the length of the season.
Ekeler is so explosive he can still pay off on a reduced workload. Nonetheless, he's a less exciting option if he hovers around a 50% snap share. So, he's not a must-use selection.
Still, Ekeler and the other passing game options will have to pick up the slack in the absence of Allen. So, the following table shows Ekeler's and Mike Williams's stats in three games without Allen since 2021 and Joshua Palmer's stats in one game without Allen during his rookie year last season. The stats on the table are courtesy of Pro Football Focus's (PFF) data.
Williams is the premier stacking partner with Herbert. Offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi didn't use Williams as only a vertical weapon in 2021, and Williams led the Chargers with 71.6 receiving yards per game and nine touchdowns in 2021. In addition, he had two explosions in his previous four games against the Chiefs, going off for 6-108-1 in Week 8 in 2020 and 7-122-2 in Week 3 in 2021. So gamers can forgive him for his underwhelming season opener.
Palmer was also quiet in the box score last week, securing three of four targets for five scoreless yards with a rush attempt for four yards. Still, he ran the second-most routes (25) in Week 1. Palmer is also an excellent bet to remain on the field in two-receiver sets with Williams. As a result, he's the second-most exciting receiver in the passing game.
The other pass-catchers to consider mixing in are Gerald Everett, DeAndre Carter and Tre' McKitty. Everett generated some camp buzz and had the third-most routes (23) for the Chargers last week. Everett parlayed his role into three receptions for 54 yards and a touchdown on four targets.
Carter had a surprisingly useful game last week. He had three receptions for 64 yards and a touchdown on four targets. However, he ran only 14 routes. According to PFF, 10 of his routes were in the slot and four were wide. At Carter's size and with his agility score, his best fit is in the slot.
The slot role was fruitful for Greg Dortch last week. The diminutive wideout ran 36 routes from the slot last week and had nine targets, seven receptions and 63 scoreless yards. There's a chance recency bias will push the percentage of rosters Carter is on above Palmer, making the latter more intriguing. Further, since Palmer was outperformed by Everett as well, Palmer might be on the lowest percentage of rosters of the three. That's a mistake. Palmer's ceiling is the highest of the trio since he should be on the field the most. Regardless, Palmer, Carter and Everett are affordable and appealing options.
Finally, Tre McKitty is a nifty punt on DraftKings. Donald Parham is out, and McKitty chipped in as a rotational option last week. He ran 13 routes, including two from the slot and two more wide. McKitty's four targets weren't an eye-catching mark. However, being targeted on 30.8% of his routes was noteworthy. Finally, McKitty was able to haul in three receptions for 24 yards. So, a repeat of last week would be a useful outcome at only $400 on DK.
Chiefs Analysis: Patrick Mahomes was a fire-breathing monster in Week 1. He completed 30 of 39 passes for 360 yards and five touchdowns. It was also encouraging the Chiefs were a pass-happy offense to open 2022. In the first half, the Chiefs attempted 28 passes and the running backs carried the ball only 10 times. The game was a blowout. So, the first half numbers are likely more predictive than the full-game totals.
Additionally, the Chiefs had the third-highest pass rate (62%) in 2021. Thus, the opener was probably not an outlier. And, of course, Mahomes' numbers against the Chargers last season were electrifying in fantasy. He had 260 passing yards, three touchdowns, two interceptions and 45 rushing yards in Week 3 last year. However, Mahomes cleaned it up in the second meeting, torching the Chargers for 410 passing yards, three touchdowns, one interception and 32 rushing yards in Week 15. As a result, Mahomes is a must-use player and my favorite Captain/MVP.
Travis Kelce is the unquestioned top pass-catcher for the Chiefs. Last week, he flamed the Cardinals for eight receptions, 121 yards and a touchdown on nine targets. Still, Kelce has had mixed results against the Chargers when safety Derwin James has played. Fortunately, he's had his two best games in his most recent matchups against the superstar safety, as you'll see in the upcoming table.
JuJu Smith-Schuster was second on the Chiefs in targets (eight), receptions (six) and receiving yards (79) in Week 1. He didn't score a touchdown and fumbled twice, losing one. It wasn't a bad showing, but Smith-Schuster wasn't a dynamic monster. So, I'm out on him at his salary.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire helped gamers in DFS and season-long leagues last week. He had 74 scrimmage yards, three receptions and two touchdowns. Nevertheless, CEH wasn't a bell-cow back. Isiah Pacheco did most of his damage in the fourth quarter but mixed in before.
Further, Jerick McKinnon ran four more routes than CEH (17 versus 13) in Kansas City's opener. Jet also siphoned some rushing work, carrying the ball three times for 24 yards through the first three quarters. McKinnon is an appealing value selection as the passing game and change-of-pace back for the Chiefs.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has the best blend of usage, ceiling and salary in Kansas City's pass-catching corps. He led the Chiefs with 33 routes last year. But unfortunately, he only had four receptions for 44 scoreless yards on four targets. Still, MVS's spot atop the heap in routes was promising, and the same was true for his usage.
The speedy wideout was only a lid-lifter for the Packers. However, Andy Reid used him differently in the opener, resulting in an average depth of target (aDoT) of 5.5 yards downfield, per PFF. MVS still has the blazing speed that can result in successful bombs. However, he might be less volatile with more short targets in Kansas City's offense.
The table below shows the stats -- box score and underlying -- Mecole Hardman, Skyy Moore and Justin Watson had in Week 1.
Final Thoughts: Mahomes and Herbert are shoo-ins for all of my lineups. One of them will be the Captain/MVP on most of my rosters. Though MVS is an appealing swerve for Captain/MVP since he has big-play potential, and reeling in multiple long touchdowns is within his range of outcomes.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
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