The Buccaneers and Cowboys are running back their exciting back-and-forth opener from the 2021 season. The game’s spread is less than a field goal, and the total is over 50. Still, there’s blowout potential, despite what the betting info suggests. So how should gamers approach their showdown lineups? This piece will examine the players to consider using on the Sunday Night Football single-game slate.
Game: Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys
Spread: TB -2.5
Over/Under: 50.5 Points
Buccaneers Analysis: The Bucs have changing faces and injuries on the offensive line to navigate. Fortunately, Tom Brady is arguably the best bet to mitigate offensive-line concerns. The G.O.A.T. has been defying Father Time and was a stud last year. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Brady was first in passing yards per game (312.7) and touchdowns (43).
Brady ran a pass-first offense. In fact, according to Sharp Football Stats, the Bucs passed at the highest rate (67%) in neutral game scripts, two percent higher than the second-highest passing rate. Byron Leftwich remains the offensive coordinator, with Todd Bowles promoted from defensive coordinator to head coach after Bruce Arians retired and took a front office position for Tampa Bay. So, while the offense might change, Leftwich could also continue deploying a pass-first and up-tempo offense in which Brady has thrived.
The Bucs revamped their pass-catching corps, signing Russell Gage, Julio Jones and Kyle Rudolph while watching Rob Gronkowski retire. Unfortunately, Gage missed significant time in training camp and the preseason. Further, he's listed as questionable on the injury report after logging limited practice participation all week.
Chris Godwin is also questionable while working back from surgery to repair a torn MCL and ACL in January. Godwin will probably face playing time restrictions if he's active. It's also unlikely he'll be in pre-surgery form this early in the year. So, gamers should fade him. However, if he's active, gamers should also fade Gage.
Yet, Gage is intriguing if the Bucs are cautious with Godwin and make him inactive. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Godwin played 70.4% of his passing snaps in the slot, and Gage played 49.6% in the slot for the Falcons last season. Gage also aligned wide at a 49.9% clip. Interestingly, Gage had 1.96 Y/RR in 2021, but that mark dipped to 1.60 Y/RR in the slot. Regardless, if Godwin is active, Gage could be stuck in a three-person rotation behind Mike Evans with the incumbent Godwin and fellow signing Jones.
Since Jones is healthier than Gage and not returning from knee surgery, like Godwin, I'm most intrigued by Jones of the non-Evans receivers. Jones was banged up most of last year, landing on injured reserve (IR) in November and struggling upon his return. Still, in five games played (Week 1, 2, 3, 6, 7 and 9) before he was placed on IR, Jones had 27 targets, 17 receptions, 301 receiving yards and 2.35 Y/RR. He won't be healthier at any point this year than the season opener. So, this is an excellent time to fire up Jones as a value selection.
The studs to use with Brady are Evans and Leonard Fournette. Last year, Evans averaged 4.6 receptions and 64.7 receiving yards per game with 14 touchdowns in 16 games. Those marks were slightly up from 2020, and he's reeled in 27 touchdowns in his last 32 games. Brady has loved the big and physical Evans in scoring territory.
According to our red zone stats, Evans had 18 targets, 12 receptions and eight touchdowns inside the 20-yard line last year. Moreover, inside the 10, he led Tampa Bay's wideouts with 11 targets, eight receptions and seven touchdowns. Obviously, Evans isn't a touchdown-or-bust receiver, but his red-zone prowess is fantasy-friendly, enhancing his ceiling. Thus, Brady and Evans are locked into my lineups.
Fournette is also a core player on all of my lineups. According to our NFL snap count leaders page, Fournette played 63% of Tampa Bay's offensive snaps, reaching 80% of snaps four times in 2021. Thus, Fournette was a game-script-proof bell-cow. Fournette averaged 90.4 scrimmage yards and 4.9 receptions per game, splashing paydirt 10 times in 14 games.
He might also have a positive game script. The Bucs are favorites, and I am more bullish on their outlook, thinking they could blow out the host Cowboys. As a result, Tampa Bay's defense is intriguing if the game goes according to my expectation, especially since Dallas's offensive line is in flux and without stud left tackle Tyron Smith.
Cowboys Analysis: Dallas's offensive line could be disastrous in Week 1. The Cowboys are without three of their best lineman from last year. La'el Collins and Connor Williams signed elsewhere, and Smith is hurt. Smith's absence is the most alarming since the Cowboys are starting raw rookie Tyler Smith at left tackle in his stead.
Thus, I'm not crazy about Dak Prescott. He was sharp when kept clean, but his production crumbled under pressure. Per PFF, Prescott completed only 50.9% of his passes with 6.2 yards per attempt on 222 dropbacks under pressure. When pressured, they also deemed 12 of Prescott's throws big time and 11 turnover-worthy plays. Prescott's lack of established weapons behind CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Schultz is also alarming.
Nevertheless, he might deliver for gamers taking the plunge because of volume. The Cowboys avoided running at Tampa Bay's stout rush defense last year, asking Prescott to chuck it 58 times in the opener. So, even if he's not sharp, he can make up for efficiency through sheer volume.
Still, I'd rather get exposure to their probable pass-heavy approach through Dallas's pass-catching players. Lamb had PFF's ninth-best receiving grade and was tied for 18th in Yards Per Route Run (1.94 Y/RR) out of 73 receivers with at least 60 targets in 2021. Lamb also averaged 4.9 receptions and 68.9 receiving yards per game with six touchdown receptions. He's the highest-ceiling player in Dallas's passing game.
Meanwhile, Schultz was a reliable safety valve for Prescott. According to PFF, Schultz ran the third-most routes (548) among tight ends in the regular season in 2021. He also commanded a target on a rock-solid 18.4% of his routes, parlaying the looks into 4.6 receptions and 47.5 receiving yards per game. Moreover, Schultz led the Cowboys in touchdown receptions with eight. Schultz had a dozen targets inside the 20-yard line and five inside the 10.
The matchup is good, too. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Bucs were tied for the sixth-most receptions (92) allowed to tight ends in 2021. Additionally, Dallas's questionable offensive line could lead to an uptick in quick throws to Schultz. According to PFF, Schultz had a modest average depth of target (7.1-yard aDoT) last season.
Tony Pollard is the most exciting back for the Cowboys, and Ezekiel Elliott is a no-brainer fade. In 2021, Tampa Bay's stingy run defense yielded the fewest rushing yards (1,083) to running backs at a paltry 4.01 yards per attempt, per Pro-Football-Reference. The Cowboys were smart enough to recognize running against Tampa Bay would be foolish. Therefore, they fed Zeke only 11 carries for 33 scoreless yards.
Pollard had only three attempts for 14 scoreless yards against the Bucs. Yet, he's much more explosive than Zeke, giving him a chance to spring one. According to PFF, Pollard had nine rushes for 15-plus yards on 134 attempts, and Zeke had only six on 249 attempts. Yuck.
Still, Pollard's potential contributions in the passing game are the reason to give him a look at his reasonable salary on DraftKings' full-point point-per-reception (PPR) platform. Pollard spent time in the offseason receiving tutoring in the slot from offensive quality control coach Kyle Valero. Finally, the Bucs had the second-most receptions (117) allowed to running backs in 2021.
Noah Brown is Dallas's No. 2 receiver, but he's not priced as if he's a starter. He was a seventh-round pick in the 2017 NFL Draft and has rarely been used on offense since then. Still, he's familiar with the offense and has Prescott's trust.
Brown has also generated buzz in camp. Additionally, Jon Machota of The Athletic speculated rookie Jalen Tolbert might be inactive. Brown might just run wind sprints and fail to earn targets. Still, he's a safe bet to play a ton of snaps and run plenty of routes, making him a stellar value pick on DK and FanDuel.
Finally, Jake Ferguson is a defensible dart. The Cowboys regularly used two tight ends through the first seven games last year before Blake Jarwin was placed on IR. According to Sharp Football Stats, the Cowboys used two tight ends on 37% of their offensive plays in Week 1 through 7 in 2021.
NFL analyst Lance Zierlein described the rookie as a "solid receiver" in his scouting report. He was also graded favorably by PFF, earning the eighth-highest receiving grade out of 45 tight ends in FBS with at least 40 targets in 2021. Ferguson also had a stellar 1.73 Y/RR.
Further, Ferguson hit the ground running in the preseason. He caught all seven of his targets for 76 yards. Finally, out of 51 tight ends with at least five targets in the preseason, Ferguson had PFF's eighth-highest receiving grade and was ninth with 2.30 Y/RR.
Since I think the Bucs will win by more than the spread, with the potential to blow out the hosts, I suggest building unbalanced showdown lineups with more players from the Bucs than the Cowboys.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
