Week 1 NFL DFS Primer: Bills vs. Rams Thursday Night Showdown Slate (2022)

The opening contest of the 2022 NFL season has a championship fight feel, with a pair of heavyweights doing battle. The defending Super Bowl champion Rams host the 2022 Super Bowl champion betting favorite Bills. The spread for the game is small, the total is north of 50, and there’s elite talent on both sides of the ball for the well-rounded squads. Below, find out the players gamers should mix into their showdown lineups.

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Game: Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams

Spread: BUF -2.5

Over/Under: 52.5 Points

Bills Analysis: Josh Allen was the highest-scoring quarterback in fantasy football last year, making him an obviously attractive target. Allen was a legitimate dual-threat quarterback, passing for 259.2 yards per game and 36 touchdowns while adding 44.3 rushing yards per game and six touchdowns on the ground. The FantasyPros Lineup Optimizer projects Allen to lead the TNF contest in scoring at DraftKings and FanDuel.

As a result, Allen is an excellent option for the Captain/MVP spot. His scoring ceiling is through the roof. Further, Cody Main from Establish The Run did a superb breakdown showing the distribution of Captain salary spent for the top one percent of DK showdown lineups, supporting spending up for the studs.

Buffalo's pass-happy tendencies are also a boon for Allen and his pass-catchers. Yes, the Bills have a new offensive coordinator. So, their offense might look a little different this year. Still, Ken Dorsey was promoted from the quarterback coach and passing-game coordinator to offensive coordinator with an endorsement from Allen before Dorsey was named the new OC. So, it's reasonable to expect a similar offense in 2022.

According to Sharp Football Stats, the Bills passed at the second-highest rate (65%) in neutral game scripts in 2021. Stefon Diggs was Buffalo's top dog in the passing game last year, and he sits atop the heap again this year. According to Sports Info Solutions, Diggs was 14th in Target Share (23.8%) and second in Intended Air Yards (1,930). Pro Football Focus (PFF) also projects Diggs for a sizable matchup advantage against the defenders he'll probably face in coverage. Diggs is the top stacking option with Allen, but he's not a must-use option since Allen's demonstrated a willingness to use his other weapons.

Specifically, Gabriel Davis had a historic performance the last time the Bills played in a meaningful game. Davis torched the Chiefs for eight receptions, 201 yards and four touchdowns on 10 targets in Buffalo's Divisional Round playoff loss. Davis has a desirable role in the offense as a field-stretcher and red-zone weapon. According to PFF, among receivers targeted at least 40 times, including the playoffs, Davis had the sixth-deepest average depth of target (15.3 aDoT). Moreover, according to the FantasyPros Red Zone Stats, Davis was tied for 16th among wideouts in targets inside the 20-yard line (15), despite playing a part-time role most of last season. Thus, Davis has a blend of big-play potential and touchdown upside.

Dawson Knox was another popular target of Allen's in the red zone. Knox was tied for third among tight ends in targets inside the 20 with 18, despite missing two games with a hand injury. The athletic tight end had a nose for the end zone, scoring nine touchdowns in 15 games. Finally, the Bills didn't waste snaps keeping Knox in to pass block. According to PFF, Knox's 573 routes were the second most on the Bills.

Isaiah McKenzie is the biggest screaming value on the showdown slate. He's listed atop Buffalo's depth chart for the slot wide receiver gig, a role he flashed in last year and Cole Beasley has thrived in as well.

Thankfully, McKenzie alleviated concerns about an unspecified injury that popped up last week by practicing on Sunday.

At McKenzie's low salary, the bar is low for him to provide showdown squads with value. He'll be chalky, but the salary relief he provides is valuable. Plus, McKenzie could have a meaningful role, getting peppered with quick targets to limit the impact of game-wrecker Aaron Donald.

The Bills backfield is likely to be a committee, with Devin Singletary dominating work between the 20s, Zack Moss owning the short-yardage role and James Cook mixing in as a change-of-pace runner and pass-catching weapon. Cook's speed and pass-catching role are enough to justify considering him as a punt.

Khalil Shakir is strictly a DK option for gamers entering multiple showdown lineups. The rookie had an eye-catching preseason, posting a blistering 3.51 Y/RR and showing versatility, playing the slot at a 56.5% clip and aligning wide 43.5% of the time. Shakir's versatility makes him a better bet to spell Diggs or Davis on the perimeter than veteran slot Jamison Crowder. Finally, according to Sharp Football Stats, the Bills used at least four receivers on 105 plays last year. Thus, Shakir might rotate in with Buffalo's starting receivers if his solid preseason showing earned the coaching staff's trust.

Rams Analysis: The Rams are a top-heavy offense. It starts at the top with Cooper Kupp. He exploded in his first year with Matthew Stafford, and the duo made sweet music together. Kupp was 11th in Intended Air Yards (1,618) and tied for sixth in Target Share (26.0%). More impressively, Kupp was first in Yards Per Route Run (3.12 Y/RR) among players with at least 40 targets, receptions per game (8.5), receiving yards per game (114.5) and touchdown receptions (16). As a result, he's the must-use player from the Rams and a great Captain/MVP choice.

Stafford was the other part of the prolific connection, and he was sharp last year. He orchestrated a pass-first offense (60% in neutral game scripts) to great success, evidenced by ranking fourth in passing yards per game (287.4) and second in touchdown passes (41).

Stafford's elbow has been a topic of discussion throughout the summer, but Sean McVay provided an encouraging update about Stafford facing no restrictions in Week 1. The veteran gunslinger will face an inexperienced secondary when he chucks the pigskin since Tre'Davious White is on the PUP list, and the visitors are starting 2020 seventh-round pick Dane Jackson and rookie Kaiir Elam on the perimeter and Taron Johnson in the slot. Johnson's a talented slot corner, but Jackson and Elam have much to prove.

Allen Robinson is the Rams' new No. 2 receiver after a disappointing final season with the Bears. The vibes were bad even before the 2021 season started. First, A-Rob didn't want to be franchise tagged. Then, sadly, it was all downhill from there.

Now, Robinson will play with the best quarterback in his career for a team that prioritized signing him. In fact, McVay used some colorful language when describing his pursuit of the veteran receiver. So, was last year a blip on the radar for Robinson? The Rams hope so, and it doesn't seem unreasonable that he'll bounce back after Stafford praised Robinson's work learning the offense during the offseason.

Tyler Higbee and Lance McCutcheon are pass-catchers to fade for the showdown slate. The Bills were tough as nails against tight ends last year. Meanwhile, McCutcheon shined during the preseason, but playing at all during the preseason was a red flag for his placement in the pass-catching pecking order.

If Van Jefferson -- recovering from knee surgery -- is out, Ben Skowronek and Tutu Atwell are the next men up. At their respective salaries, merely being on the field as the third receiver paves the way for panning out as punts.

Finally, Darrell Henderson is markedly cheaper than Cam Akers. Remarkably, Akers returned from a ruptured Achilles last year. However, he was ineffective. Neither back was productive running the ball in the Super Bowl, with Akers rushing for only 21 yards on 13 attempts and Henderson rushing for seven yards on four attempts.

Still, Henderson was more productive as a receiver. Henderson reeled in three of five targets for 43 yards on 15 routes, and Akers had just three receptions for 14 yards on four targets and 19 routes. Entering the year, it appears both backs will have roles in the offense. Therefore, it's unappealing paying Akers' salary and moderately intriguing to spin down to Henderson.

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant - which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections - to our Waiver Wire Assistant - that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much - we've got you covered this fantasy football season.

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.