The storyline for the Monday Night Football game is apparent. It’s the return of Russell Wilson to Seattle. However, he didn’t play any preseason snaps. So, will he have to shake off rust? Maybe. Regardless, the Seahawks have the worst quarterback situation in the league. So, they’re unlikely to take advantage of a sluggish start from Denver’s offense gelling on the fly. Below, find out the best way to attack the last game of Week 1 in single-game contests.
Game: Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks
Spread: DEN -6.5
Over/Under: 44.0 Points
The storyline for the Monday Night Football game is apparent. It’s the return of Russell Wilson to Seattle. However, he didn’t play any preseason snaps. So, will he have to shake off rust? Maybe. Regardless, the Seahawks have the worst quarterback situation in the league. So, they’re unlikely to take advantage of a sluggish start from Denver’s offense gelling on the fly. Below, find out the best way to attack the last game of Week 1 in single-game contests.
Game: Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks
Spread: DEN -6.5
Over/Under: 44.0 Points
Broncos Analysis: Wilson is getting his first game action on a new team, with a new head coach and a new offense. It might not be aesthetically pleasing, but Wilson's talented enough to succeed while improvising and doing his normal off-script things.
The matchup is good, too. According to Football Outsiders, the Seahawks were 26th in pass defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) in 2021. Additionally, Seattle's secondary was ranked 30th by Pro Football Focus (PFF). So, don't overthink this. Instead, use Wilson in showdown contests.
Courtland Sutton is the receiver to stack with Wilson. The offseason drumbeat has drastically favored Sutton in the battle with Jerry Jeudy for the No. 1 receiver on the Broncos. In addition, Sutton deserves a partial pass for last year's struggles in his first season back from a torn ACL. Sutton has demonstrated a higher ceiling than Jeudy, erupting in 2019. According to PFF, Sutton was tied for 12th out of 67 receivers targeted at least 60 times in 2019 with 2.08 Y/RR. Additionally, according to Sports Info Solutions (SIS), Sutton was sixth in Target Share (25.7%) and 10th in Intended Air Yards (1,602). Thus, Sutton has a demonstrably high ceiling if he returns to pre-ACL-injury form.
Albert Okwuegbunam and K.J. Hamler are ancillary options who can benefit from Wilson's ability to extend plays and willingness to take shots downfield. Hamler has wheels. He also put his jets to good use in college, averaging 16.9 yards per reception, per Sports-Reference. Moreover, according to PFF, Hamler had 2.48 Y/RR and a 14.4-yard average depth of target (aDoT) in his final collegiate season. So, he's a vertical weapon who could pay off on one play.
There aren't many tight ends who were talked about more in fantasy football circles than Albert O. It was alarming that he played into the fourth quarter of Denver's second preseason contest. Still, Okwuegbunam was treated like a starter and rested in Denver's final preseason game.
Okwuegbunam is an athletic specimen and receiving specialist. Out of 44 tight ends targeted at least 30 times in 2021, Albert O was sixth in Yards Per Route Run (1.94 Y/RR). Unfortunately, it's unclear how much his blocking shortcomings will hinder his playing time. Cecil Lammey of DenverFan.com and Football Guys has voiced concerns about Okwuegbunam's blocking struggles capping his playing time.
He also mentioned Albert O's blocking on The Audible and some other interesting nuggets and expectations for Week 1.
The game script should be great for Denver's two-headed monster in the backfield. The following tables show Javonte Williams' and Melvin Gordon's stats in 2021, including playing time and red zone stats from our snap counts leaders and red zone (RZ on the table) stats pages, as well as advanced stats, such as Missed Tackles Forced (MTF), Yards After Contact Per Attempt (YCO/A), route and Yards Per Route Run (Y/RR), from PFF.
The backfield was essentially split down the middle under Denver's previous coaching regime. It is unclear how new head coach Nathaniel Hackett will divvy up playing time. However, he shed some light on his thinking.
Still, the organization traded up in the second round to pick Williams last year and allowed Gordon to test free agency before re-signing him to a modest contract. Both backs can succeed in this matchup with a good game script, but Williams is the higher-ceiling choice. Nonetheless, it's not outrageous to use both.
Finally, Denver's defense can benefit from the expected positive game script and Seattle's questionable offensive line. PFF ranked Seattle's offensive line dead last, with rookie tackles projected to bookend the line. As a result, the Broncos might pile up sacks and wreak havoc.
Seahawks Analysis: Seattle's offense has two talented wide receivers. D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are fantastic players, but they're attached to a bad offense and arguably the NFL's worst quarterback situation. Still, they might be able to overcome the situation.
Geno Smith started three games for the Seahawks in 2021. So, let's begin by looking at how Metcalf and Lockett played in Smith's starts.
Not pictured, Gerald Everett had the third-most targets with only seven. Thus, Smith was wisely locked in on his supremely talented receiver duo. Metcalf hauled in three touchdowns, but Lockett had more targets and receptions. So, it's tempting to take the salary discount by spinning down from Metcalf to Lockett. Regardless, they're the best options from the Seahawks on the Monday Night Football showdown slate.
Finally, if the Seahawks play catch-up most of the game, Travis Homer or DeeJay Dallas could be active as passing-down backs. Unfortunately, it's unclear which back has the edge for that role. They're listed on the same line of the depth chart.
Pete Carroll praised their play in the preseason. In addition, Dallas ran 106 routes, and Homer ran 95 routes last year. So, there wasn't a significant discrepancy between the two backs. However, Dallas held the slight edge, and The Athletic's Michael-Shawn Dugar has Dallas listed ahead of Homer.
There isn't much to create strong convictions, making either option defensible as punts. Finally, Smith isn't a must-use option, but he's a reasonable pick, given the likelihood of being forced to throw in catch-up mode.
Gamers should invest minimally in the Seahawks on the Monday Night Football slate. Instead, they should use four or five Broncos on DraftKings and shouldn't use more than two Seahawks on FanDuel.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.