High-end fantasy football performances and weekly finishes are fueled by high numbers of routes run and high-value targets and touches. The majority of top scorers from 2021 saw healthy doses of end-zone targets, air yards, deep targets and goal-line carries.

Targeting players who run a high percentage of routes is also a good approach for identifying breakout candidates, beatable player props, DFS targets and players to prioritize in your 2022 fantasy football drafts and Week 1 fantasy football rankings.

• DBro’s Week 1 Primer
• Fitz’s Rankings, Tiers & Start/Sit Advice for Week 1
• Freedman’s Favorites for Week 1

This report will look at rates of routes run per dropback from 2021 along with players who commanded a high rate of high-value opportunities compared to larger samples in order to find sleeper running backs, wide receivers and tight ends who are garnering more or fewer opportunities in the passing game heading into Week 1 for the 2022 season. 

This overview should help you understand what favorable usage looks like, so consider it an introductory piece to my weekly featured article on FantasyPros this season that will debrief you on player deployment from the previous week.

This also provides us with some insight to refer back to after the conclusion of Week 1, to see if players’ roles have changed in the wake of a new season.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Rate of routes run per dropback | 2021 Regular Season 

Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase all finished as top-five fantasy wide receivers while running a route on 92% of their team’s offensive dropbacks.

The high-end usage helped separate them from being back-end fantasy WR1s. It’s that exact role we should be chasing with wide receivers like Michael Pittman Jr., Darnell Mooney, D.J. Moore, Terry McLaurin and Courtland Sutton in 2022.

All of those guys ran a route on over 90% of dropbacks — elite usage — but none finished better than WR18 (Moore). Look for all of them to drastically improve their production next season, especially those who get upgraded quarterback play.

It’s less so with the guys like Jakobi Meyers, Robbie Anderson or Marvin Jones, who are facing more target competition.

Rate of routes run per dropback | Last four weeks of 2021

Rashod Bateman earned a full-time role in the Ravens offense during the final five weeks, running a route on 88% of dropbacks. In Week 18, Bateman tied Marquise Brown with 40 routes run.

As a rookie, Bateman had more receiving yards than Brown from Weeks 14-18 despite seeing 18 fewer targets. With Brown shipped off to Arizona this offseason, expect Bateman to establish himself as the Ravens’ No. 1 wide receiver.

Zay Jones projects to be a full-time starter in the Jaguars offense, but his lowly ADP hardly foreshadows that role. But based on how often Jacksonville used Marvin Jones and Laquon Treadwell last season, it’s easy to see Jones be a nearly every-down type player.

He’s $4.1K on DraftKings for Week 1 — cheaper than Marvin Jones.

TARGET SHARE

Highest Target share | 2021 Season (games played including postseason and other positions)

Still bearish on DeVante Parker being the No. 1 WR in the Patriots offense this season? Look no further than his 24% Target share in games played last season.

Looking for the discount Diontae Johnson? High Target share, but questionable quarterback play — hello, Darnell Mooney.

Highest Target share | Last four weeks of 2021 (including postseason)

Russell Gage posted a 30% Target share over the last four weeks of the 2021 season and is going to be heavily involved in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense from the start with Chris Godwin returning from a late torn ACL. Gage is dirt cheap at WR50. Absurd.

TARGET RATE PER ROUTE RUN

Highest Target Rate Per Route Run | 2021 (minimum 65 targets)

Elijah Moore’s season didn’t end like we had hoped, with the rookie missing the final five games due to injuries and COVID-19 implications. Don’t overlook Moore’s 13th-highest target rate when on the field in 2021, however. It’s a great feat for a first-year player and bodes extremely well for the Ole Miss product as he heads into his second season as the team’s clear-cut alpha.

Other receivers who also saw extremely high target rates but failed to meet the 65-target threshold include Deonte Harty (27%), Kadarius Toney (25%), Sterling Shepard (25%), Albert Okwuegbunam (23%), Braxton Berrios (22%) and Jerry Jeudy (21%).

Tee Higgins’ 23% target rate per route run was higher than Ja’Marr Chase’s 21% in 2021. There’s no denying that WR1 overall upside exists with Chase in 2022, but Higgins’ constant command of targets in a loaded Cincinnati offense will make him a screaming value in 2022 fantasy drafts and in dynasty leagues.

Highest Target Rate Per Route Run | Last Four Weeks (minimum 15 targets)

Antonio Gibson’s target rate per route run increased by 13% over the final four weeks — the biggest increase at the position. J.D. McKissic’s late-season injury fueled Gibson’s receiving surge, as the second-year back commanded a 17% Target share in games without his pass-catching counterpart.

In the other 12 games, Gibson owned just an 8% Target share and ran a route on 36% of dropbacks. It’s clear that Gibson’s path to top-tier usage can only be unlocked if McKissic misses time.

Why Mike Williams over Keenan Allen? Last four weeks of the season, Williams and Allen each saw 30 targets. However, Williams owned a monster 26% target rate per route run versus Allen’s 18%.

END-ZONE TARGETS

Most End-Zone Targets | 2021 Regular Season

WRs and TEs who should experience positive touchdown regression in the 2022 NFL season based on their overall target volume inside the 5-yard line include Kyle Pitts, Zach Ertz, Gabriel Davis, Diontae Johnson, A.J. Green, Van Jefferson, Marquise Brown, Mike Williams, CeeDee Lamb, DeVonta Smith, Chase Claypool, Darren Waller, Courtland Sutton and Marvin Jones Jr.

DEEP TARGETS AND AIR YARDS

Most Deep Targets (20-plus air yards) | 2021 Regular Season

Highest Air Yards Share | 2021

Highest Air Yards Share | Last Four Weeks of 2021 Season

WOPR (Weighted Opportunity = 1.5 × Target share + 0.7 × air yards share)

RUNNING BACKS

Rate of Routes Run Per Dropback | 2021 Regular Season

Jonathan Taylor finished the 2021 regular season 11th in routes run and sixth in route participation (50%). I really think Nyheim Hines’ “increased role” at the expense of J.T. is being overblown, especially considering we are likely to see both backs heavily peppered with targets among a pretty lackluster receiving room. No passer targeted running backs more than Ryan did in 2021 — 8.6 targets per game.

Only two rookie running backs finished inside the top 15 in route participation in 2021: Najee Harris (1st) and Javonte Williams (13th).

It makes sense for Harris, who operated as a three-down workhorse all season. The volume he is going to see in 2022 pretty much locks him into RB1 territory. Still, his ceiling/floor projection will be dependent on the state of the Pittsburgh Steelers offense is with Mitchell Trubisky/Kenny Pickett at QB.

As for Williams, the fact he was able to carve out such a large receiving role as a rookie while also working in tandem with Melvin Gordon III demonstrates his sky-high ceiling. We got a glimpse of his potential when he scored 27 fantasy points against the Chiefs without Gordon in the lineup.

Gordon is going to be involved this season, but Williams’ upside cannot be ignored should the team turn to him more down the stretch.

Rate of Routes Run Per Dropback | Last Four Weeks of 2021

Ameer Abdullah is one of my favorite final picks and a running back I am adding in super-deep dynasty formats. His 30% target rate per route run and 16% Target share ranked second among all RBs over the final four weeks. As the locked-in third-down back, he could provide more value in PPR leagues than many would assume.

A 10% Target share (top 10 at the RB position) isn’t crazy considering Josh Jacobs and Brandon Bolden saw similar target usage last season.

Highest Target share | 2021 Regular Season

Why can D’Andre Swift be this year’s version of Austin Ekeler? They had identical target shares in 2021 (13%), tied for second-best among RBs,  although Swift’s target rate per route run (24%) was superior to Ekeler’s (21%).

Highest Target share | Last four weeks of 2021

Highest Target Rate Per Route Run | 2021 Regular Season 

Highest Target Rate Per Route Run | Last Four Weeks of 2021

CARRIES NEAR THE GOAL LINE

Most Carries Inside the 5-Yard Line | 2021 Regular Season

What separated Jonathan Taylor as the bona fide No. 1 running back in fantasy football? Goal-line usage. No player came close to seeing his amount of volume near pay dirt. Taylor’s 42 carries inside t he 10-yard line were 12 more than the next-closest back (Harris, 30).

It’s pretty clear that RBs with the vise grip on the touches inside the 5- and 10-yard line have an easy path to a top-tier fantasy ceiling, but not all RBs convert their opportunities into scores at the same rate.

Running backs who should easily experience positive touchdown regression — assuming their roles stay relatively the same — include A.J. Dillon, Alvin Kamara, Javonte Williams, Dalvin Cook, Antonio Gibson, Leonard Fournette and Miles Sanders.

The fact that Dillon is due for positive touchdown regression does not bode well for Aaron Jones’ elite fantasy football status in 2022. The bruising back was used heavily around the goal line all season, and that doesn’t seem likely to change entering Year 3.

Playing in a high-powered offense, Dillon could end up as the better Packers fantasy RB after finishing as PFF’s second-highest-graded rusher.

TIGHT ENDS

Rate of Routes Run Per Dropback | 2021 Regular Season

Rate of Routes Run Per Dropback | Last Four Weeks of 2021

David Njoku’s 65% route participation from the last part of 2021 combined with his full-time usage during the preseason suggests the dude is going to ball out in 2022. I’ve moved him up into my top 10 tight ends and he is by far my favorite target when I go late-round at the position.

His 18% target rate per route run was identical to Cole Kmet’s target rate last season … but we all know that Njoku can offer way more upside as an athlete and yards after the catch monster.

Highest Target share | 2021 Regular Season

The fact that Dalton Schultz has been able to produce the way he has for fantasy despite just a 15% Target share just goes to show how valuable that role is in the Dallas Cowboys offense. It makes him hard to beat as one of the elite tight ends going in the middle rounds, especially considering that his Target share increased during the last four weeks of the season, foreshadowing a 20% Target share in his range of outcomes for the entire 2022 season.

Highest Target share | Last Four Weeks of 2021

Do not disregard Mo Alie-Cox. While others debate endlessly on the Colts No. 2 pass-catcher, simply stash the former basketball standout. The big man had a 20% target rate per route run in his last four games.

Love Mo Alie-Cox as another TE stash.

Guy had a full-time role in preseason action…https://t.co/o5FbmaqZU6

And is making nearly the identical amount this season as the Colts 3 highest-paid WRs…

Combined. Yup.

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) September 4, 2022

Highest Target Rate Per Route Run | 2021 Regular Season 

Highest Target Rate Per Route Run | Last Four Weeks of 2021

*Routes run data provided by PFF.com