You love fantasy rankings, but you really love tiers. We get it: Tiers give rankings texture and can be a big help when you’re actually drafting. Here are my first few running back tiers, rankings and player notes for 2022.
You can find my full tiered rankings and notes here.
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Pat Fitzmaurice’s Running Back Tiers, Draft Rankings, & Notes
Tier 1
Welcome to the elite tier.
Jonathan Taylor is the consensus 1.01 after finishing as the RB1 last year by a wide margin. He’s a rare physical specimen who blends power with speed. Taylor runs behind a strong offensive line and is getting a QB upgrade with Matt Ryan replacing Carson Wentz.
Taylor isn’t a unanimous 1.01; some prefer Christian McCaffrey. I’m not quite there, but I do think McCaffrey and Taylor belong on the same tier, and I would happily draft CMC in the 1.02 spot. Many people don’t have the stomach for McCaffrey after being burned by his injuries. He’s played 10 games in the last two years. The appeal is that CMC is an absolute machine when healthy. Since 2018, McCaffrey has averaged 22.3 fantasy points per game (0.5 PPR). Taylor has averaged 18.4 FPPG over his first two seasons.
Tier 2
All of the players on this tier are worthy first-round picks.
As with McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook comes with injury concerns. But like CMC, Cook produces big fantasy numbers when healthy. He’s averaged 112.8 scrimmage yards and 17.2 fantasy points (0.5 PPR) per game over his five NFL seasons.
Austin Ekeler probably isn’t going to repeat his 20 TD performance from 2021, and his carry total could dip below 200 if rookie Isaiah Spiller or someone else becomes a reliable early-down option. Still, Ekeler is a prolific pass catcher who’s averaged 96.2 yards from scrimmage per game over the last three years. It also helps that Ekeler plays in one of the NFL’s better offenses.
Derrick Henry has been a fantasy powerhouse the last three years, though a foot injury cut short his 2021 fantasy season. I don’t necessarily consider Henry an injury risk, but I can’t get any higher than RB6 for a 28-year-old running back who doesn’t catch many passes.
Najee Harris had a league-high 381 touches as a rookie. The Steelers have talked about trying to lighten his load, but they haven’t made any significant additions at RB. Harris is a versatile performer with serious pass-catching chops. There are concerns, however, including Pittsburgh’s problematic offensive line and a supposedly minor foot injury we learned about in late August.
Joe Mixon hit career highs in nearly every stat category last season, finishing as the RB3. He catches passes and plays in a strong offense that got a substantial offensive line upgrade in the offseason.
D’Andre Swift is already one of the top pass-catching RBs in the league and has only scratched the surface of his potential.
This is the cheapest Saquon Bakley has ever been in fantasy football. The question is whether he’s still the same unicorn athlete after enduring some significant lower-body injuries. We haven’t seen Barkley look special since 2019, but if he’s back to normal this year, you’ll be kicking yourself if you didn’t take advantage of the discount.
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Tier 3
- Javonte Williams
- Aaron Jones
- Alvin Kamara
- Nick Chubb
- James Conner
- Breece Hall
- Travis Etienne
- Leonard Fournette
This is a fascinating and important tier. Draft decisions involving players on this tier will have enormous consequences. All of these guys have obvious appeal, but each comes with at least one concern.
There’s no denying how talented Javonte Williams is. But will he continue to split work nearly 50/50 with Melvin Gordon, or will the Broncos give Williams more of a lead role? Gordon has said he believes the Broncos want Williams to be the main man. Regardless, Denver’s QB upgrade to Russell Wilson is a plus.
Aaron Jones has fared well in games Davante Adams missed for the Packers. With Adams gone, Jones becomes more consistently involved in the passing game. But Jones will share the backfield with A.J. Dillon, who became the Packers’ preferred goal-line back late last season.
Alvin Kamara remains a dazzling playmaker and one of the best pass-catching running backs in the game, although Kamara’s efficiency as a runner nose-dived last year in the first season of the post-Drew Brees era. Kamara could potentially receive a suspension after being arrested for battery in Las Vegas the night before the Pro Bowl, although it now appears likely that any punishment wouldn’t come until 2023.
Nick Chubb is one of the NFL’s best pure runners and lines up behind an excellent offensive line, but he doesn’t catch many passes, the Cleveland offense won’t have Deshaun Watson at QB until Week 13, and Chubb shares snaps with Kareem Hunt.
James Conner was a one-dimensional TD machine early last year, then started posting huge fantasy numbers as a dual run-catch threat after Chase Edmonds got hurt. Edmonds is gone, but it’s unclear whether the Cardinals will use Conner in a lead role or rotate him with newcomer Darrel Williams and perhaps others.
Jets rookie Breece Hall tested off the charts at the combine and had a terrific career at Iowa State. His workload and the overall competence of the Jets’ offense are unknown, but Hall could be special from Day One.
Travis Etienne scored 78 touchdowns in 55 career games at Clemson. He and Trevor Lawrence now finally get to play together again after Etienne missed his rookie season with a foot injury. James Robinson has been the workhorse for the Jaguars the last couple of years, but he’s coming back from a late-season Achilles tear. This figures to be mostly Etienne’s show in 2022.
Leonard Fournette inherited a fantasy windfall last season after Giovani Bernard got hurt, and the Buccaneers’ brain trust determined that they couldn’t trust Ronald Jones and Ke’Shawn Vaughn to make substantial contributions. Fournette averaged 12.9 carries and 4.9 catches a game, finishing RB7 in fantasy points per game (0.5 PPR). Now well into his 40s, QB Tom Brady is anxious to avoid hits and eager to check down. The question is whether the Bucs continue to work Fournette so hard or give the now-healthy Bernard and/or rookie Rachaad White significant playing time. It’s also worth noting that the middle of the Bucs’ offensive line has been gutted by a combination of retirement, free agency and injury.
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