The 2022 NFL season begins next week. Most leagues have either drafted already or will in the next few days. You’ve been cramming your mind for a month now with as much fantasy football knowledge as it can hold. It’s time for a break. Let’s have some fun.
A million different things will happen in the next 12 months to influence 2023’s first round. But what the heck, we’re going to take a crack at it anyway. Below, we project next year’s first 10 picks, but first, let’s establish this year’s baseline. Based on Yahoo’s ADP for half-PPR scoring leagues, here is this year’s first round for 10-team leagues:
Beyond our fantasy football content, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you prepare for your draft this season. From our free mock Draft Simulator – which allows you to mock draft against realistic opponents – to our Draft Assistant – that optimizes your picks with expert advice – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football draft season.
The 2022 NFL season begins next week. Most leagues have either drafted already or will in the next few days. You’ve been cramming your mind for a month now with as much fantasy football knowledge as it can hold. It’s time for a break. Let’s have some fun.
A million different things will happen in the next 12 months to influence 2023’s first round. But what the heck, we’re going to take a crack at it anyway. Below, we project next year’s first 10 picks, but first, let’s establish this year’s baseline. Based on Yahoo’s ADP for half-PPR scoring leagues, here is this year’s first round for 10-team leagues:
Beyond our fantasy football content, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you prepare for your draft this season. From our free mock Draft Simulator – which allows you to mock draft against realistic opponents – to our Draft Assistant – that optimizes your picks with expert advice – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football draft season.
2022 First-Round Draft Picks
Before we reveal next season’s top 10, let’s first look at who will drop out and who will climb in:
Who’s Out and Why?
Christian McCaffrey (RB – CAR)
CMC begins with a bang, leading all players in fantasy points over the first four games of 2022. In a bizarre twist of fate, he sprains his thumb doing knuckle push-ups Week 5 and misses the next few games. McCaffrey comes back in Week 7, scores three TDs, and yells “I’m Baaaack” into the camera after the third one. Unfortunately, he trips running back to the sideline and sprains his knee, causing him to be sidelined through the Panthers’ Week 13 bye. CMC is awesome again down the stretch before pulling his hammy Week 16, which keeps him out for the fantasy finale. Frustrated fantasy managers swear, “Never again!”
Cooper Kupp (WR – LAR)
With defenses keying in on him all season, new teammate Allen Robinson II outscores Kupp by 25 fantasy points in 2022. Fantasy managers argue about who will have the better 2023, and both go in the second round.
Derrick Henry (RB – TEN)
Henry’s yards per carry drop to 3.9 and yards after contact to 2.5 as age and usage start to catch up to the big fella. The Titans decide they miss the good ‘ol days when Henry split carries with Dion Lewis and sign Tony Pollard in the offseason, and fantasy managers panic.
Dalvin Cook (RB – MIN)
When a sprained ankle causes Cook to miss Week 5, Alexander Mattison rushes for 112 yards with four receptions against Chicago, and Kevin O’Connell realizes he’s pretty good. In an effort to keep Cook healthy, the two backs share the backfield for the rest of the season, and O’Connell tells the media, “If it can work for Denver, it can work for us too.”
Joe Mixon (RB – CIN)
Mixon thrills in 2022, then he disappoints. Then he thrills again, only to disappoint again. Fantasy managers begin to realize that this is who he is, and he drops to the second round.
Who’s In and Why?
Javonte Williams (RB – DEN)
Williams goes full beast mode in 2022, while Melvin Gordon III plays like a 29-year-old running back. By the end of the season, Gordon is a high-priced handcuff, and Williams rewards his fantasy managers by scoring 26.5 fantasy points versus the Chiefs in Week 17, winning many of them championships. The Broncos resist the temptation to re-sign Gordon in the offseason, and Williams becomes the hottest commodity this side of Jonathan Taylor.
CeeDee Lamb (WR – DAL)
Lamb is targeted on an absurd 34.7% of passes in 2022, scores 10 TDs, and finishes the season as the third-best fantasy wide receiver. Jerry Jones is so happy that he gives CeeDee a five-year, $125 million extension but does little else to beef up the Cowboys’ receiving corps in the offseason. Assured that Lamb’s target share will remain high, fantasy managers vault him into the first round.
Saquon Barkley (RB – NYG)
With his free agency impending, Barkley has an excellent 2022, looking more like his rookie-year self. He still misses three games due to various ailments but is in the top five running backs on a points-per-game basis. The Giants re-sign him, and the fantasy managers who bail on Christian McCaffrey find their substitute, elevating him to the first round.
Kenneth Walker III (RB – SEA)
Rashaad Penny develops a toenail infection between Week 2 and Week 3 and misses the rest of the season. After two weeks of Travis Homer and DeeJay Dallas, Walker returns from his hernia procedure and averages 22.5 carries a game as Pete Carroll and the Seahawks go into full tank mode. Walker only averages 3.5 yards per carry against stacked boxes, but fantasy managers love the volume, and he pushes into the first round.
Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL)
Pitts finishes the year as the clear No. 1 tight end after hauling in 84 catches for 1,253 yards and a league-leading 16 touchdown receptions. Meanwhile, Travis Kelce shows his age, and Mark Andrews cedes targets to uber-rookie Isaiah Likely. Pitts emerges as the top tight end in 2023 by a mile and creeps into Round 1.
Early 2023 First Round Projections
Enjoy the season, everyone, and please don’t refer back to this next August!
