NFL Week 3 DFS Lineup Advice: GPP (2022 Fantasy Football)

Last week’s article was strange. It felt like all of our in-consideration players went off while the written-up guys had some lackluster performances. In any case, it felt like the process was correct, and we’re ready to have a better week here. So with that in mind, let’s get started with the quarterbacks.

And be sure to check out our weekly trade value chart with updated values for all players

The players below are the ones I’m looking at for guaranteed prize pool (GPP) considerations for Week 3:

Quarterbacks

DraftKings

Carson Wentz (WAS): $6,300 vs. PHI
I’ve always had mixed feelings about Wentz, but he’s been a great fantasy producer with his new team. Carson has thrown the ball at least 40 times in each of his first two games, dropping at least 32 DraftKings points in both of those. That’s ridiculous from a player in this price range, and you know he’ll be motivated against his former team.

Tua Tagovailoa (MIA): $6,100 vs. BUF
That game Tua had on Sunday was absurd, finishing with 44 fantasy points. With that said, people will be scared to use him against what looks like the best defense in the NFL. However, that will not deter us because this game has a 54-point total. That makes it the highest-projected game of the weekend, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Tua playing catchup all day long.

FanDuel

Joe Burrow (CIN): $7,500 at NYJ
Burrow has been bad to start the year, but he’s still got at least 17 FanDuel points in both outings. That shows how reliable this stud can be, leading the league in fantasy points across the final four weeks of last season. He should be able to recapture that form against the Jets, with New York ranked bottom-five in yards and points surrendered last season. In their one matchup last year, Burrow had 259 yards and three touchdowns.

Jameis Winston (NO): $6,900 at CAR
Winston continues to be undervalued. He was a top-five quarterback in his days with Tampa, and he’s being priced around players like Joe Flacco, Baker Mayfield and Justin Fields. That’s insulting to a talented player like Jameis, averaging 250 yards and 37 pass attempts through the first two games. As long as that volume is there, Winston will produce with Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry running all over the field. We’re also not concerned with Carolina sitting 21st in total defense last year.

In Consideration: Derek Carr (LV): DK $5,900/FD $7,100 at TEN
Carr has as many weapons as any quarterback in the NFL, and he’s a bit too cheap outside the top 10. Tennessee looks terrible, too, surrendering 62 points through their first two games.

Running Backs

DraftKings

Dalvin Cook (MIN): $7,900 vs. DET
Fantasy managers will fade Cook after his Week 2 dud, but it’s just a matter of time before this stud gets rolling. We’re talking about a guy who averaged nearly 20 DK points per game last year, being drafted in the Top-5 in season-long leagues. His biggest asset here is the matchup, with Detroit allowing 5.1 yards per carry while sitting 26th in rushing yards surrendered and 30th in points allowed. In their last three matchups, Cook has compiled 65 carries for 410 rushing yards and five touchdowns.

Rashaad Penny (SEA): $4,900, vs. ATL
It floored me to see this price tag. Penny was a disaster in Week 2 when he had just 1.5 DK points, but he’s still the starting running back in Seattle. That game’s blowout nature and script killed Penny’s value, but this is expected to be a close game. That means 15-20 touches for Penny, which is amazing since he averaged 18.3 carries for 134 yards in the final five games last year. Even half of that would make Penny an immense value, and we expect a bounce back here against an Atlanta team allowing 29 points per game.

FanDuel

David Montgomery (CHI): $7,100 vs. HOU
Montgomery has been held back by the Bears throughout his career, but he’s always been a good player when they feed him the ball. This is one of the few game scripts where we expect that to happen, with Chicago entering this matchup as a 3.5-point favorite. That’s no surprise since Houston has one of the worst defenses in the NFL. However, they won’t be able to slow down Montgomery, mauling the Packers to the tune of 122 yards on 15 carries in Week 2.

Antonio Gibson (WAS): $6,700 vs. PHI
We were unsure what Gibson’s role would look like in Washington, but he seems like the bell cow with Brian Robinson injured. Through the first two games, Gibson has played 60% of the team’s snaps, totaling 28 rushing attempts and 12 targets. That doesn’t even include that he’s the goal-line back, earning him the role that made him an $8K player in the past. Philly looked good on Monday but don’t forget that they surrendered the most fantasy points to backs in Week 1.

In Consideration: Chase Edmonds (MIA): DK $5,100/FD $5,700 vs. BUF
It’s been a rough start for Edmonds in Miami, but he should see some extra work in the passing game, with this being the highest-scoring matchup of the week. If he sees double-digit carries and the five to eight targets we expect, Chase is too cheap.

Wide Receivers

DraftKings

Keenan Allen (LAC): $6,500, vs. JAX
We’re not exactly sure of Allen’s status, but he’s one of the best GPP plays if he can suit up. This has been a Top-10 receiver since Justin Herbert was handed the starting job, averaging 16.9 DraftKings points per game last season. We haven’t seen that yet because of the injury, but it has fantasy managers sleeping on this stud. A matchup with Jacksonville is an excellent way to get him on track, with the Jaguars owning a 19th OPRK against opposing wideouts.

Michael Thomas (NO): $5,900 at CAR
Why is Thomas still below $6K? This guy was $9K just two years ago, and he’s shown glimpses of his past performance in the first two weeks. He’s got 11 catches on 17 targets through two weeks, combining for 41 DK points. There’s the stud we know and love, clearly establishing himself as Winston’s top target. Some might be worried about the Panthers’ early season stats but stymying the Giants and Browns is nothing worth writing home about.

FanDuel

JuJu Smith-Schuster (KC): $6,100 at IND
The Chiefs still have one of the best passing games in football, and Juju is going to benefit from Patty Mahomes all year. He had six catches for 79 yards in his debut but was shut down by the Chargers in Week 2. The Week 1 performance is what we regularly expect, with Juju averaging 77 catches on 111 targets through his first four seasons. We expect that to be his floor taking over for Tyreek Hill and Indy looks like one of the worst teams through two weeks.

Corey Davis (NYJ): $5,800 vs. CIN
Davis is the top target in this Jets offense. It’s certainly not a sexy pick, but he’s one of the best bets for a player in this price range. He’s averaging 80 receiving yards per game through the first two weeks, playing in 80% of the team’s snaps in Week 2. That alone is tough to find from a player in this price range, especially since Corey averages 13 FanDuel points per game. This team should continue throwing a ton because they’ll be trailing almost every game.

In Consideration: Allen Robinson (LAR): DK $5,700/FD $6,000 at ARI
Robinson hasn’t been targeted much in his first two games with the Rams, but he’s getting open. It’s just a matter of time before Stafford sees him, and it could happen against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL.

Tight Ends

DraftKings

Darren Waller (LV): $5,800 at TEN
Waller is $2,000 below the highest-priced tight end. Yes, it is Travis Kelce, but that’s some egregious pricing. Waller was one of the best tight ends in football last season, averaging nearly 10 targets per game. He’s also one of the critical targets in the red zone, and Tennessee doesn’t look like they can stop anyone after allowing 62 points through two weeks.

FanDuel

Kyle Pitts (ATL): $5,600 at SEA
It’s wild to see Pitts this cheap. There’s no doubt he’s struggled through the first two weeks, but he is expected to be one of the best tight ends in football. He’s being priced behind Taysom Hill, Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett, which is difficult to fathom. Seattle was 31st in passing yards surrendered last season, and now is a perfect opportunity for Pitts to have his first big game of the year.

In Consideration: Zach Ertz (ARI): DK $4,600/FD $5,200 vs. LAR
Ertz was targeted 11 times in Week 2, and he’s the Pro Bowler we saw in the past. His workload should continue to be high with DeAndre Hopkins out, and it seems like Arizona will be playing catchup here as well.

Defense/Special Teams

DraftKings

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: $3,100 vs. GB
It’s been blasphemy using a D/ST against the Packers in the past, but this isn’t the same old Pack. Aaron Rodgers has very few weapons to work with, ranked 25th in scoring so far this year. That’s terrifying against the hottest D/ST in the sport, with Tampa Bay scoring 39 DK points across the first two games. As a result, the oddsmakers don’t expect much from Green Bay, projected for only 19 points in this game.

FanDuel

Cincinnati Bengals D/ST: $3,600 at NYJ
It’s rare to have to scroll down to find the team playing the Jets. This has been the worst offense for some time now, surrendering the most points to opposing D/STs last year. Unfortunately, we don’t expect much improvement behind Joe Flacco, and this is the perfect opportunity for this talented defense to get back on track.

In Consideration: Atlanta Falcons D/ST: DK $2,700/FD $3,700 at SEA
This is a total punt play, but I like what I’ve seen from the Falcons’ defense. They have four takeaways and five sacks through the first two games, facing one of the worst offenses in football here. Seattle’s 20-point projection tells the whole story.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.