Week 1 of NFL DFS action is in the books. It was an…interesting slate that showcased how diving deep for value is important to the success and how variance can be such a big factor. There were plenty of disappointments to be had and a lot more scoring from players not typically shoveled into lineups. Now, with a week of seasonal data to sift through, we forge ahead.
As we build our core lineups for Week 2, let’s discuss some values at each position on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Quarterbacks
DraftKings
OK, we can all admit this one feels kind of gross. However, there is a method to this madness. Wentz finished Week 1 as the QB3 overall, behind only Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. DraftKings is convinced that this is merely an anomaly, and we have all seen enough of Wentz over the last few seasons to be rightfully hesitant to lock him into a lineup. All of this is true.
So here are some things that are also true. He finished with the fifth-most passing yards (313) and the second-most passing touchdowns with four. His 41 pass attempts were sixth-most among the position, and he outscored the five quarterbacks who threw more times. He has a legitimate crew of playmakers around him, including a dual-threat wide receiver in Curtis Samuel and a dual-threat running back in Antonio Gibson. It’s also worth noting that Wentz can do more with his legs than he did in week one.
Now, let’s discuss the matchup. They face the Detroit Lions that just surrendered 455 scrimmage yards in their first game.
For the $5,800 salary and the money it allows to be spent at other positions, it is worth holding your nose and putting Wentz into a couple of multi-lineup tournaments then spending up around him. Just don’t dial him up as an automatic top-five option at the position.
FanDuel
There is a lot to unpack with Derek Carr’s Week 1 performance. The bad was the porous offensive line, three interceptions, and a pair of late fumbles that ended an attempt to come back against a stout Chargers defense.
The good was the 295 passing yards, two touchdowns, and the revived connection with former college teammate Davante Adams. While several of the 17 targets felt very forced, it still came out to 10 grabs for 141 receiving yards and one touchdown.
All in all, with the turnover deductions, it was uninspiring from a fantasy standpoint and disappointing for those who placed him in lineups last week. That was last week. This week, the Raiders host the reeling Arizona Cardinals, who just allowed 360 passing yards and five touchdowns to Patrick Mahomes and company in Week 1. Carr is no Mahomes, but this defensive unit is exploitable, and Adams is also poised for a big day.
On a slate that does not include Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, or Josh Allen, Derek Carr becomes a very intriguing value option. His salary dropped $100 from last week, but the matchup certainly looks better on paper. The lower expected roster percentage is a positive for those looking to utilize him in tournaments.
Running Backs
DraftKings
Javonte Williams is one of the more difficult backs to put into lineups confidently. The $6,500 salary compared to the expected split in workload leaves many managers wary of relying on him. However, there are several things in Williams’ favor heading into their Week 2 matchup.
Despite only seeing seven rush attempts, Williams averaged 6.1 yards per carry. With the Broncos trailing, he was targeted 12 times, showing that despite a split workload, the game script will not take him off of the field.
This week they face a Houston Texans defense that surrendered 161 rushing yards and a score to Jonathan Taylor last week. Both Williams and Melvin Gordon maddeningly fumbled near the goal line, so that role is still up for grabs.
While the split is anger-inducing, Williams is in a good spot to outproduce his salary, and scoring at least once in this game is a higher probability than not.
FanDuel
The talk of Twitter during the first Thursday Night game was the fact that Henderson got the start over Cam Akers. While neither was overly impressive against a solid Bills defensive front, Henderson was easily the better of the two. Henderson would out-touch Akers by an 18-3 margin, gaining 47 rushing yards and 26 receiving yards.
This week the Rams host the Falcons in a far more attractive matchup. The Falcons did not have much to defend in their tilt against the Saints last week. Kamara was held more in check by opportunity than their defense, totaling only 13 total opportunities.
While Akers may get eased into more volume as the season progresses, it appears to be Henderson operating in the majority role.
Henderson has the expected volume against a defense that can and will be beaten. He seems like one of the best value plays at the position this week.
Wide Receivers
DraftKings
Drake London led his team in targets, receptions, and yards in week one, including an impressive 31-yard grab that led to a late field goal. He finished with five receptions on seven targets for 74 yards.
They face a Rams secondary that allowed Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis to combine for 210 receiving yards and two touchdowns in week one. Matthew Stafford could lead some early scoring drives, forcing Mariota to throw more. London will be one of the top, if not the top, recipient of that target share.
In the salary range, London has one of the top expected target projections in target share for an offense largely void of weapons, making him a nice value at the cost.
FanDuel
The annual slow start for Brandon Aiyuk continues. Honestly, there is nothing that can be safely taken away from the week one monsoon game in Chicago, aside from an unexpected loss. Aiyuk was only targeted three times but reeled in two of them for 40 yards. He also handled one carry for seven yards.
It may feel scary to drop Aiyuk into lineups, but there are a few things worth considering that are in his favor. Despite the low target percentage, Aiyuk was out there for 99% of offensive snaps. With Eli Mitchell out with a knee injury and salary incentives for Deebo Samuel, expect him to handle a few more carries out of the backfield. George Kittle still is not practicing, much less expected to play. While we need to see some progression from Trey Lance as a passer, his proclivity for the big-play suits Aiyuk’s skill set.
The matchup against the Seahawks also poses little in the way of worry as their lackluster defensive attention will be primarily focused on Deebo when he lines up out wide. The Seahawks allowed 20 yards per reception last week and 174 receiving yards to Denver’s top two receivers last week.
With the disappointing stat line from a negatable week one game, Aiyuk’s projected roster percentage is less than 5%, making him an ideal value target while leaving plenty of salary left for other positions.
Tight Ends
DraftKings
Mitchell Trubisky looked aggressively mediocre in his first start as the Steelers quarterback. Even with mediocre play, Pat Freiermuth looked impressive. He finished second on the team in targets with 10, reeling in five of them for 75 scoreless yards, which led the team. For an offense still trying to build a cohesive identity, it was a very encouraging outing.
Heading into a week two matchup against the New England Patriots, the early season data sheds a different light on the defensive propensities of the Patriots. Currently ranked as the fourth-most difficult against the position, which is a little misleading. In week one, the Patriots faced the Miami Dolphins, who are utilizing a very different scheme for their tight ends, calling for far more blocking than routes, hence leading to the single target Mike Gesicki received in week one.
Bill Belichick likes to take away a team’s primary weapon. In this case, that would be Diontae Johnson. With the additional defensive attention, Freiermuth could pace this team in targets. As the eighth-most expensive salary, his target share is very safe in this matchup.
FanDuel
Logan Thomas returned from last season’s ACL injury and immediately saw six targets, which he turned into 45 receiving yards. He finished third on the Commanders’ depth chart for targets, which is encouraging with the weapons they have as receiving options. Thomas ran a route on 63% of his snaps last week, including one red zone target.
While there is plenty to be nervous about from Carson Wentz, Thomas operating closer to the middle of the field makes him one of the more reliable targets in this offense and in a beatable matchup. Last week the Lions allowed 60 receiving yards to Dallas Goedert. Last season, they allowed the second-most receiving yards to the position.
If there is a dark horse on this slate to sneak into the top twelve at the position, Thomas is the preferred pick and at a digestible salary.
John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @John_Hesterman.
