NFL Week 1 DFS Value Plays: Targets & Advice (2022)

Take a deep breath. We have made it back to football, and with that return, both seasonal and DFS contests. This is the best time of year.

This weekly series aims to identify some of the best values at each position for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Keep in mind, value does not always mean the lowest price, but the best return for the cost.

Happy kickoff weekend. Let’s ride.

Quarterback

DraftKings

Jameis Winston (NO) $5300 vs. ATL

This may seem gross at first and is not intended to be a cash-game play, but Jameis Winston has a lot going for him this week. Namely, a Week 1 tilt against an Atlanta defense that ranked 29th in pass defense and 28th in run defense last season. That defense was so bad, it’s rumored that the 1994 Mighty Ducks could have flying-V’ed their way to victory against the Falcons.

He has the best set of weapons he has had since landing in New Orleans. Michael Thomas is returning and expected to start Week 1, they picked up Jarvis Landry in free agency, and they also drafted talented rookie Chris Olave. Not to mention the versatile Alvin Kamara in the backfield.

It is easy to forget how effective Winston was in the seven games he played last season. He averaged 17.3 fantasy points per contest, more than Ryan Tannehill, Daniel Jones, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Tua Tagovailoa. He turned in the lowest interception rate (1.9%) of his career. His 102.8 passer rating was the sixth highest among qualified quarterbacks. All of this was accomplished with a wide receiver corps made up of Marquez Callaway, Deonte Harty, and Tre’Quan Smith.

In summary, for a salary that sandwiches Winston between Andy Dalton (not starting) and Davis Mills, there is more upside than risk. Winston could finish Week 1 as one of the biggest ROI plays at the position.

FanDuel

Matt Ryan (IND) $6900 vs. HOU

Matt Ryan has been an under-the-radar value thus far in redraft formats after a rough 2021 season. This becomes exploitable, especially with an expected low rostered percentage, despite the fact that it feels weird plugging him into a roster.

Due to a hodge-podge offensive line partially constructed of what appeared to be practice dummies, Ryan was pressured on 27.9% of his dropbacks, the fourth-highest rate in the league last season. Between that and a lack of available weapons, Ryan struggled from a fantasy-scoring aspect.

This season is a new start for the veteran signal-caller.

Since the 2014 season, Matt Ryan has only failed to produce a top-10 receiver once. That was 2021 after the departure of Julio Jones, an odd series of events with Calvin Ridley, and the aforementioned offensive line. He now has an upgraded offensive line, one of the best running backs in the league, a real-life NFL defense, and a receiver primed for a breakout in Michael Pittman.

The Houston Texans allowed the sixth-most points per game last season and the 15th-most fantasy points to the quarterback position.

Ryan is not going to single-handedly win a GPP, but he can exceed his cost while simultaneously allowing more salary allocations to other positions. For this slate of games, his cost versus potential ROI makes him a prime candidate to be part of some winning rosters.

Running Back

DraftKings

Dameon Pierce (HOU) $4800 vs. IND

For anyone who has not spent the last two weeks in some form of fantasy football or social media isolation, Dameon Pierce’s ascension has swollen to massive proportions. With the Texans not only cutting his biggest obstacle, Marlon Mack, they then subsequently signed him to the practice squad, only to again cut him from there as well. That leaves only 32-year-old Rex Burkhead as anything resembling competition and Dare Ogunbowale and Royce Freeman as depth pieces.

Pierce enters Week 1 as a double-edged sword. The $4800 salary is fantastic and he should be a return on investment at that price and perceived volume. However, his recent catapult into fantasy popularity means that he will be heavily rostered at cost. It’s also worth noting that the Colts allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the running back position last season, only allowing three backs to hit the 100-yard mark. Just be aware of the risk going in.

In the end, for cash games, Pierce retains a solid value projection and should be in lineups as one of the more likely Texans to cross the goal line against a solid defense.

FanDuel

Chase Edmonds (MIA) $5800 vs. NE

Chase Edmonds’ versatility as a running back made him a sought-after asset during the free-agency period, reportedly also drawing interest from the Buffalo Bills. When the dust settled, Edmonds chose to ink a deal with Mike McDaniel and the Miami Dolphins. McDaniel deploys a zone-blocking run scheme that Edmonds has excelled with during his career.

Edmonds is set to lead this backfield and can operate between the tackles and as a pass catcher. Coming off of his most productive fantasy season thus far, Edmonds’ price tag has not caught up to the potential out of Miami’s backfield. New England’s run defense allowed middle-of-the-pack production last season to the running back position but also allowed eight running backs to get 40 or more receiving yards. It’s also worth noting that Bill Belichick likes to scheme to take away a team’s primary weapon, which would be Tyreek Hill. Edmonds is not part of his scheme this week.

Edmonds slots in as a value play for depth based on his receiving capabilities and some goal-line opportunities, and he is less likely to be game-scripted out of the playbook if the Patriots are leading.

Wide Receiver

DraftKings

JuJu Smith-Schuster (KC) $5200 vs. ARI

Is there risk involved with this pick? Yes, yes there is. Will it lead to a lower rostered percentage? Also, yes, which is part of the plan.

Here are the plain and simple facts. We do not know how the targets are going to shake out aside from knowing that Travis Kelce will get all he can handle. We also know what we have seen from Marquez Valdes-Scantling, which is exactly one season of over 600 receiving yards despite being paired with a future Hall-of-Fame quarterback. Then there is JuJu Smith-Schuster, who has topped 800 yards in three out of his five seasons as mainly a possession-style big slot receiver.

For Week 1, there are a handful of decent options in this price range. The value comes in the potential upside. If JuJu hits at sub-5% roster percentage, he pays off big time and helps eliminate a large percentage of the field. For the cost, the lower roster percentage, and the potential upside, the value offsets the risk. Think of him as a GPP lottery ticket play, best utilized in multi-lineup, smaller-field contests.

FanDuel

Mike Williams (LAC) $6600 vs. LV

After setting career highs in targets, receptions, and receiving yards last season, Mike Williams opens the season against a division rival in the Las Vegas Raiders. In his last tilt with the Raiders, Williams accumulated 119 receiving yards and one touchdown on his way to 22.4 fantasy points.

His seasonal scoring was up and down last season, leveling his average to 13.03 points per game. While that may not feel overly impressive, it is among the highest fantasy points-per-game averages in his salary range and he’s in an offense that utilizes the pass frequently.

In the most competitive division in football, expect the Chargers to come out hot and try to establish a lead early. Williams will absolutely be a big part of that plan and is one of the more dominant weapons in the red zone due to his size and athletic ability. He is a solid volume play with serious touchdown upside.

Tight End

DraftKings

T.J. Hockenson (DET) $4900 vs. PHI

For those who look to punt the tight end position and just hunt for touchdown upside, look no further than T.J. Hockenson and a matchup against the Eagles. The Eagles allowed the most fantasy points, including 12 touchdowns, to the tight end position in 2021.

While Detroit has bolstered their receiving corps and still has D’Andre Swift to also siphon some targets, one of the best plays on the field is the position the Eagles could not cover last season. In their lone matchup last season, while Hockenson did not manage to score, he did secure 10 of his 11 targets for 89 receiving yards.

If the price is good and the matchup is better, lock it in.

FanDuel

Cole Kmet (CHI) $5000 vs. SF

Let’s start with some honesty. Do I think that Cole Kmet is a great tight end? No. He’s above average, in my opinion, but not by a large margin. He does not possess the yards-after-catch ability of George Kittle, Travis Kelce, or Mark Andrews. He is not a downfield burner or a pristine route runner. He is, however, relatively sure-handed and happens to be in an offense that is lacking in reliable pass-catching options.

Kmet finished with the ninth-most targets at the position last season in a poorly executed offense where Justin Fields was in and out of the starting lineup. When the Bears’ starters played during the preseason, we got an early glimpse at Kmet’s involvement, and it is going to be heavy. Kmet represents an intriguing volume-based play for a good price. The matchup is not great and the 49ers are expected to lead throughout this game. That translates into a more pass-heavy approach to the offense, benefiting Kmet from a volume perspective.

The lack of touchdowns has heavily affected the value that Kmet represents in both redraft and DFS contests. Positive regression is knocking at Kmet’s door, and for only $5000, he will be in some winning lineups.

John Hesterman is a featured writer and and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @John_Hesterman.