I can’t tell you how excited I am to be back and writing for Week 1. It’s been a long offseason of drafting season-long leagues and it’s fantastic that we’re finally back to the DFS grind.
I covered cash games last season, but I’m switching to GPP options this year. That means our hit rate will plummet, but this article’s idea is to stumble upon some cheap and explosive players in great spots. Capitalizing on these players can earn you a massive payday, and I hope I can help make you some cash throughout the season. With that in mind, let’s dive into this Week 1 card!
The players below are the ones I’m looking at for GPP considerations for Week 1.
Beyond our daily fantasy football content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Lineup Optimizer – which allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
Quarterbacks
DraftKings
Kyler Murray (ARI): $7,200 vs. KC
Many people seem to have forgotten how good Kyler Murray was last season. He was actually the top-scoring player in fantasy through the first 10 weeks, and his dynamic style of play makes him one of the best GPP plays out there. He still finished fourth at the quarterback position and should get off to a big start against Kansas City. The Chiefs surrendered the second-most fantasy points to opposing signal-callers last year. This game also has shootout written all over it, and we could see Kyler and Patrick Mahomes trade-off touchdowns all afternoon.
Trevor Lawrence (JAX): $5,600 at WAS
It was a rough rookie season for Trevor Lawrence, but we’ve seen sophomore quarterbacks break out seemingly every year. He was the top pick in the draft for a reason, and the organization tried to improve the offense by adding Christian Kirk, Evan Engram and a few offensive linemen. That might not sound special, but it’s an improvement on the horrific 2021 roster. A player this talented facing a defense like this is the best part, though, with Washington surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks last season.
FanDuel
Aaron Rodgers (GB): $7,800 at MIN
Why is Aaron Rodgers outside the Top-5 in terms of pricing? This has been the best quarterback in football for a decade now, and it’s clear these DFS sites are sleeping on the 2021 MVP because of Davante Adams‘ departure. We’re going to stay on the tracks, though, with Rodgers averaging over 20 FanDuel points per game last season. In their two meetings last year, he obliterated this 26th-ranked Minnesota defense, going 52-of-71 for 673 yards and six touchdowns.
Jameis Winston (NOS): $6,700 vs. ATL
This Saints club is one of the most fascinating teams in the NFL, but Winston could be a sneaky fantasy option. In the last full season as a starter, Winston was one of the league leaders with 21 FanDuel points per game. He actually averaged nearly 40 pass attempts and 320 yards per game, making him an enticing GPP play with receivers like Jarvis Landry and Michael Thomas. Atlanta is an astounding matchup, too, with the Falcons ranked 31st in points allowed last year.
In Consideration: Matt Ryan (IND): DK $5,500/FD $6,900 at HOU
It’s unclear how Indy will play things with their new quarterback, but they could unleash him in his debut against perhaps the worst team in the NFL.
Running Backs
DraftKings
Antonio Gibson (WAS): $5,800 vs. JAX
It’s been a rough offseason for Antonio Gibson, but he could thrive with Brian Robinson out for the year’s opening month. We hate to bank on such an unfortunate circumstance, but it should earn Gibson the early-down role he had in previous seasons. We’re talking about a player who ranked 16th at the running back position last year, averaging 15 DraftKings points per game. That would be incredible from a sub-$6K player, and it seems even more likely against a 23rd-ranked Jacksonville defense.
Dameon Pierce (HOU): $4,800 vs. IND
This pricing was decided well before the preseason, and that’s something we can profit off of in DFS. Pierce has taken over backfield duties in Houston, running over defenders in his role as the starting ball carrier. He played two games with the starters in the preseason, finishing with 11 carries for 86 yards. The Texans were so impressed that they decided to part ways with Marlon Mack. That means this is Pierce’s show, and it’s the last time you’ll see him below $5,000.
FanDuel
Saquon Barkley (NYG): $6,800 at TEN
We all know that Saquon Barkley is one of the most talented backs in the NFL, and he impressed in training camp. Health is the one thing that’s held him back, but that shouldn’t be an issue here. A matchup with the Titans is terrifying on the surface, but this could be a close game between two of the worst offenses in the NFL. We selected Saquon mainly because of this pricing, sitting outside the top-15 at the running back position. That should never happen for a player this talented, and it makes him one of the most intriguing GPP plays out there with his skillset.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC): $5,800 at ARI
CEH has been a bust in season-long drafts, but the hate has gone too far. This is still the starting running back for one of the best offenses in football, playing exclusively with the starters in the preseason. He also had at least 12 carries in six of his final seven games last year and should get all the goal-line work. If that sort of workload is there in a game with a 52-point total, CEH could be one of the best buys below $6,000.
In Consideration: Mike Davis (BAL): DK $4,400/FD $5,600 vs. NYJ
If J.K. Dobbins cannot suit up here, it’s possible that Mike Davis gets most of Baltimore’s backfield work against one of the worst defenses in the NFL.
Wide Receivers
DraftKings
Michael Thomas (NOS): $5,700 at ATL
Michael Thomas has been in and out of the lineup the last two seasons with differing injuries, but this used to be the best pass-catcher in football. He averaged 118 catches for 1,378 yards through his first four seasons, and 75 percent of that would be a great season for most players. Getting a chucker like Winston in there should help him return to that stud, especially since he faces a 29th-ranked Falcons defense here. In 10 career games against Atlanta, Thomas is averaging 8.2 catches and 98.6 yards per game!
Michael Pittman Jr. (IND): $5,500 at HOU
What is this pricing? Michael Pittman Jr. needs to be used on every lineup over on DK because he will be $7K in no time. He was a stud with Carson Wentz last year, averaging 14.4 DK points per game. That alone makes him too cheap, but an upgrade to Ryan makes him the best value on the board. Not to mention, Houston surrendered the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers last year.
FanDuel
JuJu Smith-Schuster (KC): $6,400 at ARI
Juju Smith-Schuster has stumbled into a fantastic situation in KC, joining the most talented quarterback in the NFL. He’s taking over for Tyreek Hill, leaving about 120 targets and 1,200 receiving yards for Juju to fill. He’s definitely capable of taking that on, averaging 111 targets, 77 catches, and 932 yards through his first four seasons. We also discussed how this game could be a shootout, and you better believe Andy Reid will get Juju double-digit targets in his KC debut.
Hunter Renfrow (LVR): $5,900 at LAC
These DFS sites are obviously worried about Davante Adams taking over in Vegas, but there’s plenty to go around. Hunter Renfrow was a $7K player throughout most of last season, averaging over 12 FanDuel points per game. He also scored at least 8.1 FD points in 13 of 16 games, and that alone is an amazing floor from a sub-$6K player. Renfrow also had his way with the Chargers last year, scoring at least 14 FD points in both of their matchups.
In Consideration: Sammy Watkins (GB): DK $4,700/FD $5,500 at MIN
Sammy Watkins has had a hard time staying healthy, but he’s usually good when he’s on the field. That’s awesome since he might be Rodgers’ top target in the absence of Davante Adams, making him enticing against this horrible Vikings secondary.
Tight Ends
DraftKings
Darren Waller (LVR): $5,400 at LAC
Fantasy managers are concerned with Darren Waller’s lack of practice time in the preseason, but all indications are that he’ll be ready to go in Week 1. That makes him extremely undervalued, sitting fifth in salary at the tight end position. This beast had 55 catches on 93 targets through just 11 games last season, posting some of the best per-game averages in the sport. Some might be concerned about Adams joining the crew, but I believe it opens up even more for players like Waller and Renfrow.
FanDuel
Cole Kmet (CHI): $5,000, vs. SF
Someone needs to catch the ball in Chicago, and it looks like Cole Kmet will be one of their top options. The massive tight end had at least five targets in his final seven games of last season, picking up at least 41 yards in five of those. That’s really all you can hope for from such a cheap tight end, especially since he’s becoming a more significant part of this offense every year. The Bears should be trailing in this game, and that’s big news since Kmet has some positive touchdown regression headed his way. He didn’t score a touchdown last year but should be a red zone target for the Bears behind his 6’6″ frame.
In Consideration: Austin Hooper (TEN): DK $3,700/FD $4,900 vs. NYG
People seem to forget that Austin Hooper used to be one of the best tight ends in the NFL just two years ago, and he could be one of the top targets for this weak receiving core in Tennessee.
Defense/Special Teams
DraftKings
Tennessee Titans D/ST: $3,500, vs. NYG
It’s hard to understand why the Titans sit outside the top five in terms of pricing. They enter this matchup as a 6.5-point favorite in a game with a 43-point total. That means the Giants are one of the lowest-projected offenses on this slate, ranked 31st in yardage and dead-last in scoring last season. We also don’t mind that Tennessee ranked sixth in fantasy points among D/STs.
FanDuel
Indianapolis Colts D/ST: $4,500, at HOU
The Colts are the best D/ST of the week. They ranked second in the NFL with nearly two takeaways per game while sitting fourth in FanDuel points. It’s simply one of the best units in the sport, and they’re going to go off against a terrible Texans offense. Houston was 31st in points scored and dead-last in total yardage last season. In their two 2021 meetings, Indy combined for a ridiculous 33 FD points!
In Consideration: New Orleans Saints D/ST: DK $3,700/FD $4,900, vs. ATL
Marcus Mariota was running for his life in the preseason, and that seems likely to continue surrounded by one of the worst offensive units in the NFL.
Beyond our daily fantasy football content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Value Plays – which allows you to identify players who are projected to outperform their salaries – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.
