This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Geoff, head over to GoingFor2.com or find him on Twitter @GeoffLambert77.
I had a much better week last week with my value picks, Dameon Pierce and Chris Olave being by biggest hits, but overall, more hits than misses. This week is interesting because we have a game in London that kickoffs at 930am ET. That game will not be included on the main slate, and, along with the three prime-time games, means four games won’t be on the slate, effectively shrinking our player pool.
With that said, there is still a ton of great value this week, so let’s dive in…
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If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Geoff, head over to GoingFor2.com or find him on Twitter @GeoffLambert77.
I had a much better week last week with my value picks, Dameon Pierce and Chris Olave being by biggest hits, but overall, more hits than misses. This week is interesting because we have a game in London that kickoffs at 930am ET. That game will not be included on the main slate, and, along with the three prime-time games, means four games won’t be on the slate, effectively shrinking our player pool.
With that said, there is still a ton of great value this week, so let’s dive in…
Check out all of our weekly fantasy football content
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
Quarterback
Draftkings
Daniel Jones (NYG) vs. CHI $5,400
Jones’ fantasy day was saved last week due to his rushing ability, gaining 79 yards on nine carries. The Bears have only faced one quarterback this season that has the rushing ability of Jones, and that was in Week 1 when Trey Lance had 56 rushing yards.
On paper, the Bears’ defense looks good against the pass, ranking 10th in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA). However, they faced Trey Lance in Week 1 in the monsoon, Aaron Rodgers in a game the Packers ran for over 200 yards, Rodgers only had six incomplete passes all game and Davis Mills, who isn’t exactly lighting up the stat sheet. That’s a long-winded way of saying, “I don’t think the Bears’ defense is as good as it looks on paper.”
At $5,400, Jones is probably the cheapest viable quarterback this week and worth the shot. He hasn’t looked great through three weeks, but he hasn’t looked terrible, either.
Others to Consider: Jared Goff (DET) $5,900, Geno Smith (SEA) $5,400
Fanduel
Geno Smith (SEA) @DET $6,600
Wow, did I really just suggest Geno Smith as a play? Smith’s only bad game thus far came against a stout 49ers’ defense, but he has looked pretty good outside of that. The Lions’ defense is ranked 19th in DVOA and has given up a ton of points through the first three weeks. The Lions’ offense is equally as good as their defense is bad, meaning the Seahawks will have to continue to score if they want to keep up with the Lions. This game also has the second-highest total on the main slate at 48.5.
Others to Consider: Jacoby Brissett (CLE) $6,800
Running Back
Draftkings
Rashaad Penny (SEA) @ DET $4,900
For the record, I’m not a huge fan of Penny overall. However, $4,900 for a guy who got nearly 70% of the snaps in two of the three games this season while averaging nearly four and a half yards per carry, is just too cheap. The Lions are ranked 24th in rush DVOA, and this game has the second-highest total on the slate at 48.5. Penny is one of my favorite values on the entire slate.
Others to Consider: Breece Hall (NYJ) $5,400
Fanduel
Tony Pollard (DAL) vs. WAS $6,000
Pollard has looked explosive through the first three weeks, and while he is still splitting snaps with Ezekiel Elliott, he is still getting enough work to be a viable play. His rushing attempts have increased in each of the first three games, including 13 carries for 105 yards last week against the Giants. The Commanders are the 19th worst run defense in DVOA and gave up over 120 yards on the ground in two of the three games this season. The one they did not, they were torched through the air for over 300 passing yards by Jalen Hurts. I expect both Zeke and Pollard to have good games.
Others to Consider: Kareem Hunt (CLE) $6,100, Breece Hall (NYJ) $6,300
Wide Receiver
Draftkings
Zay Jones (JAX) @ PHI $4,200
Jones (ankle) has quietly been very productive for the Jags, including 10 catches on 11 targets for 85 yards and a touchdown last week against the Chargers in L.A. Breaking news as of Thursday, he did not practice and is officially listed as questionable. Still, after two games with nine or more targets, if Zay Jones is active, he makes for a great play on DraftKings. The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite, so the Jags could be playing catchup for most of the game, leading to more targets for Jones.
Others to Consider: Romeo Doubs (GB) $4,500, George Pickens (PIT) $3,800
Fanduel
George Pickens (PIT) vs. NYJ $5,100
Pickens is my shot-in-the-dark play this week. I’m going to call this game the Pickens breakout game after showing some flashes in the first few games. The Jets are dead last in pass DVOA and gave up over 90 yards receiving to two Bengals wide receivers last week, Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins. Pickens is playing over 75% of the snaps through the first three weeks, and this matchup should allow him to finally put up some decent fantasy points.
Others to Consider: Alec Pierce (IND) $5,100, Elijah Moore (NYJ) $5,500
Tight End
Draftkings
Daniel Bellinger (NYG) vs. CHI $2,800
The Giants are running out of pass catchers. Rookie Wan’Dale Robinson has yet to make his debut, Kadarius Toney missed Week 3 and isn’t practicing so far this week, and they lost Sterling Shepard for the season with an ACL injury. That leaves the “elite” trio of Richie James, David Sills and the ghost of Kenny Golladay as their top wide receivers. Bellinger has seen his snap count go up in each of the first three games, including 60% in Week 3 where he saw five targets and caught four for 40 yards. As a sub-$3k tight end, you don’t need much from him to hit value, and with the limited receiving options, he should see an uptick in his routes run this week.
Fanduel
Tyler Conklin (NYJ) vs. WAS $5,300
Fanduel isn’t respecting Tyler “GRONKlin” this week, pricing him as the 10th highest tight end on the slate in a great matchup with the Commanders. Conklin has had at least seven targets in every game this season, and while the return of Zach Wilson might hurt his value a little, I still fully expect him to be heavily involved. Only three tight ends have been targeted more this season than Conklin: Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz. And only Mark Andrews has more receptions than Conklin’s 18.
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If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.