Monkey Knife Fight Advice: Week 4 (2022 Fantasy Football)

Welcome to Monkey Knife Fight. Monkey Knife Fight is one of the more intriguing entrants in the DFS arena. Instead of the traditional salary cap based contests, Monkey Knife Fight allows DFS players to put their fantasy football knowledge and predictive powers to the test.

They offer fantasy point and stat-based contests. Perhaps the most appealing of all of their offerings is the ‘More or Less’ contests. In these contests, you can choose whether a player will fall above or below totals for a preset combination of two to 10 players. Your win probability obviously goes down with the more players you add, but you receive an increased payout multiplier in exchange.

Since Monkey Knife Fight’s fantasy point and stat-based totals are dynamic, meaning the total, total type, and pairings change throughout the week, it is important to search for favorable and advantageous total pairings to exploit on a daily basis. Ideally, when choosing a total pairing, you want to feel extremely confident on one of the totals and feel strongly enough about the other total to proceed. This week we will take a look at two of the ‘More’ options that stood out the most for Week 4. Note that these are not locked in pairings, and may no longer be offered by the time you log in to make your picks.

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Plays of the week

Nick Chubb (RB – CLE): 88.5 rushing yards
Nick Chubb has continued to be a war hound for the Cleveland Browns, rushing for 113 or more rushing yards in two of three contests and 87 yards in the other. Chubb saw his snap share rise to 63 percent in Week 3 and could creep closer to the 70 percent mark based on potential gamescript this week against Atlanta. Atlanta has been surprisingly good against the run this season but has not yet faced a running back who has hit 89 or more yards in any game this season. The Falcons have surrendered 88.3 rushing yards per game this season, giving the More the higher probability for this matchup. Gamescript could prevent Chubb from hitting the number. However, with the Browns listed as road favorites despite still having Jacoby Brissett under center and Myles Garrett a likely game-time decision, the projected gameflow lends itself to a More play. One of the top rushers averaging 113.7 rushing yards per game, only needing to hit 88.5 while playing for the favorite, makes this look like the strongest More play currently listed at MonkeyKnifeFight. Get this one in sooner than later to avoid disappointment.

Prediction: More

Derrick Henry (RB – TEN): 89.5 rushing yards
Derrick Henry has struggled this season but has still hit 82 or more rushing yards in two of his three contests. He has run for 103 or more rushing yards in four of his last five games against Indianapolis and looks set to be facing a Colts defense that looks like it will be without Shaq Leonard for at least one more game and could also be without DeForest Buckner. The Colts have been strong against the run this season but have not faced any top-five rushing yard leader types. 89.5 is a high number, however, and should probably be closer to 75.5. We rarely feature the More or Less totals in which we ultimately lean Less, but the disparity presented in this particular offering presents significant value. My initial lean was the More but doesn’t make sense for Week 4. Tap the Less on Henry against the Colts, or avoid this one altogether. There is no value on the More at 89.5 rushing yards.

Prediction: More

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Raju, check out his profile and follow him @FantasyContext.