This sounds crazy to say, but this is the final Thursday of the regular season. It’s been a wild ride to get to this point, and I’ll be filling in for the next four days. We really want to end the season strong, and we’re going to get it started with this short Thursday card! We have just 10 games in total, with five of them making up the main slate. We’re going to key in on those because that’s where the fat pool prizes will be at.

Starting Pitcher Rankings

Starting Pitcher Strategy

It’s rare to have such a short slate and run into four pitchers we actually like. That’s the case here, with two aces toeing the rubber and two cheap guys in brilliant spots. Mixing and matching these four guys should be a simple task, and it’s going to make lineup construction a breeze when we dive into the hitters.

Cash Game Recommendations:

Shohei Ohtani (LAA) vs. OAK

Ohtani has developed into one of the best pitchers in baseball, providing a 1.79 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 11.8 K/9 rate across his last 17 starts. That’s three months of dominance, and it should continue against Oakland. The A’s rank bottom-three in runs scored, OBP, OPS, wOBA, and xwOBA. Shohei scorched them in their last matchup, throwing six scoreless innings. That’s why he’s a -250 favorite, with the A’s projected for just three runs.

Carlos Rodon (SF) vs. COL

The Rockies had the fewest runs on the road last season, and they’re on their way to set that mark again this year. It’s uncanny how bad they are outside of Coors, but it’s definitely a trend at this point. It’s not like Rodon needed any more incentive to go off here, registering a 2.98 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 11.9 K/9 rate on the year. He’s faced Rocky Road twice this season, striking out 17 batters across 10 solid innings.

GPP Recommendations:

Andrew Heaney (LAD) vs. SD

This is a risky play with how limited Heaney has been, but he has some of the highest upsides on this slate. The streaky southpaw has a 3.06 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 13.5 K/9 rate. Those would be Cy Young averages if he made every start, but injuries and limitations have kept his fantasy value lower than it should be. We’re not worried about him facing San Diego, sitting bottom-10 in total offense since the All-Star break.

Eric Lauer (MIL) vs. MIA

Lauer is another pitcher coming off of injury, but he’s in a fantastic spot here. Milwaukee gets a matchup with Miami, who rank 27th in runs scored, OPS, and OPS. That’s huge since Lauer was a breakout earlier on in the season, posting a 2.38 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 10.8 K/9 rate through his first 10 starts. He can definitely recapture that form against the Marlins, especially since he’s a -200 favorite against a team that’s only projected to score three runs.

Top Lineup Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers (vs. Sean Manaea)

• Road (Petco Park)
• Value: Low
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8 Runs/LAD -300

Manaea used to be a pitcher we’d be concerned about, but he’s broken right now. The San Diego southpaw has one quality start since the middle of July, generating a 7.61 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in that span. Three of those matchups came against these Dodgers, with LA giving Manaea a 14.49 ERA and 2.27 WHIP in their four matchups this year. Those are laughable averages, and it’s likely to continue against the best lineup in baseball.

San Francisco Giants (vs. Ryan Feltner)

• Home (Oracle Park)
• Value: High
• Risk: Medium
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 7.5 Runs/SF -230

The Rockies throw out bad pitchers every day, but Feltner is one of their worst ones. The right-hander has a 5.91 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. That’s standard stuff for Colorado, and it’s led to San Fran winning six games against them over the last week. This is also one team that should be relatively cheap from a salary standpoint, and that alone makes them one of the most enticing stacks in such a supreme matchup.

Los Angeles Angels (vs. Cole Irvin)

• Home (Angel Stadium)
• Value: Medium
• Risk: Medium
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 7 Runs/LAA -250

Irvin has impressive averages on the year, but he’s starting to fall apart. He’s allowed at least four runs in five of his last eight starts, totaling a 6.99 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in that span. These offenses are simply catching up with Irvin’s stuff, and this is a lineup that’s starting to get healthy. Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, and Taylor Ward are all playing every day, and they should have success against a guy like Irvin.

Core Studs

• Mookie is one of the frontrunners for MVP, and he’s really trying to finish the season strong. The Dodgers leadoff man is just 4-for-30 over the last nine days, but he has a chance to get hot here. We already discussed how disastrous Manaea has been, with Mookie amassing a .444 OBP and 1.444 OPS in 27 at-bats against him. It’s no surprise when looking at his splits, sporting a 1.014 OPS against left-handers this season.
• Trout is probably the best play on the board. The former MVP has a .289 AVG, .693 SLG, and 1.092 OPS across his last 29 games. That’s pretty much who this has been for a decade now, and we also love that he has a .416 OBP and 1.058 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor.
• Garcia won’t light the world on fire with his discipline at the plate, but this guy is a beast in fantasy. He’s got 25 homers and 25 steals in the cleanup spot in this lineup and is on his way to 100 RBI as well. His recent form is fabulous, too, accruing a .397 OBP, .607 SLG, and 1.004 OPS across his last 15 games. His only weakness is his strikeouts, but hitting from the right side against Marco Gonzales’ 1.33 WHIP and sub-20 percent K rate puts him in a beautiful spot.
• Joc Jams is the best play in this Giants stack. He usually hits leadoff against righties, tallying a .272 AVG, .347 OBP, .532 SLG, and .879 OPS against them this year. Those superb splits make him tough to fade against Feltner, especially since Joc has a .357 AVG and .988 OPS in his last eight matchups with the Rockies.

Value Plays/Punts

• Turner is the best value on the Dodgers. The former All-Star has been raking in the second half, producing a .358 AVG, .430 OBP, .569 SLG, and .998 OPS across his last 56 games. That’s a longer stretch than I even expected, and he’ll add to it in this superb matchup. We also like Trayce Thompson as well, with both of these guys hitting from the right side.
• It’s been a rough season for Yastrzemski but facing Colorado every day is turning his numbers around. Over his last seven games, Yaz has three homers, two doubles, and six RBI en route to a 1.037 OPS. He also typically bats cleanup against righties, and we already discussed how rubbage this Rockies fill-in has been.
• Everyone knows to use Trout and Ohtani in an Angels stack, but Rengifo is the best value on the team. He’s been hitting leadoff for a month now, accumulating a .296 AVG, .547 SLG, and .846 OPS across his last 12 games. Those are amazing averages from such an affordable player, and it looks even better since he has a .331 AVG, .595 SLG, and .941 OPS against lefties this year.
• Renfroe is one of the best home run bets on the board. This is a .250 ISO player who’s got at least 26 bombs in five of the last six years. He’s starting to get on one of his home run binges as well, blasting three over the last three days. It’s even more likely when he gets to face a lefty, posting a .845 OPS against them since 2020.

Hitter Strategy

There are two offenses we really want to exploit. The Giants and Dodgers stand above anyone else on this slate, and they should be relatively simple to stack. LA is the safest option on the slate, but you’ll have to pay up for them. San Fran is a much better value, and you should find plenty of bats from this team while saving a ton of your salary. Filling in some Angels and Rangers is a great way to finish things off, and filling in lineups should be a breeze with such few options available.

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio

Whether you’re new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy – like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests – to learn more.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.