Tonight’s main slate is just eight games. In addition, it has an atypical start time, beginning at 6:35 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. The starting pitchers, stacks, studs and values/punts are narrowed to fit the modest slate size.
Thursday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
An ace marching toward another Cy Young Award is the top pitcher tonight. However, a pair of burgeoning righties are excellent selections, too.
Tonight’s main slate is just eight games. In addition, it has an atypical start time, beginning at 6:35 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. The starting pitchers, stacks, studs and values/punts are narrowed to fit the modest slate size.
Thursday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
An ace marching toward another Cy Young Award is the top pitcher tonight. However, a pair of burgeoning righties are excellent selections, too.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Justin Verlander (HOU) vs. BAL
Verlander's putting the finishing touches on a remarkable season. Further, he's gone nuclear down the stretch. According to FanGraphs, in his previous six starts totaling 33.0 innings, he's had a 1.64 ERA, 2.44 SIERA, 0.70 WHIP, 4.1 BB%, 33.6 K% and 26.7 CSW%.
The Orioles aren't a pushover. Still, they're merely a mid-pack offense. Therefore, they're not a deterrent for using Verlander tonight. He's the top pitcher on tonight's slate and an excellent option in all game types.
Mitch Keller (PIT) vs. CHC
Keller started the year looking like the same old punching bag he's been in previous years. However, he turned things around on the fly. As a result, Keller has settled into a groove.
In his last 13 starts spanning 73.0 innings, he's had a sterling 2.96 ERA, 3,66 xFIP, 7.2 BB%, 20.4 K% and 26.3 CSW%. Thankfully, Keller has a decent matchup tonight. The Cubs are tied for 17th in wRC+ (97) against righties. Chicago is also tied for the eighth-highest strikeout rate (23.6 K%) against them, enhancing Keller's floor and ceiling. Thus, he's grossly underpriced on both DFS outlets.
GPP Recommendations:
Hunter Greene (CIN) vs. MIL
Greene has been closing his rookie campaign with a bang. In his previous six starts spanning 34.2 innings, he's had a 3.38 ERA, 2.85 SIERA, 1.10 WHIP, 6.4 BB%, 31.9 K% and 28.9 CSW%. Additionally, Greene didn't skip a beat when he was activated from the Injured List (IL) on September 17. Instead, he held the Cardinals scoreless on four hits, zero walks and 11 strikeouts in six innings.
Nevertheless, Greene has a tricky matchup. The Brewers are tied for sixth in wRC+ (109) against right-handed pitchers. Coincidentally, the Red Birds have had a 109 wRC+ against righties, and Greene toyed with them. So Greene's upside is too tantalizing to pass up in tournaments tonight.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Braves are lefty-killers. They're tied for sixth in wRC+ (117) against southpaws this season. They've also packed a punch, evidenced by ranking fifth in ISO (.182) against lefties. Sadly, they don't have the easiest assignment tonight. Ranger Suarez has been rock-solid, twirling a 3.53 ERA and 3.50 xERA. Still, Suarez's 19.9 K% is lower than the league average (22.3 K%), and his 8.9 BB% is higher than the league average (8.2 BB%). As a result, he's not bulletproof.
- Road (Guaranteed Rate Field)
- Value: High
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 7.5 Runs/CLE -135
Don't be fooled by Johnny Cueto's 3.09 ERA. The veteran righty's ERA estimators don't align with his impressive ERA. Instead, Cueto has had a mediocre 4.04 xERA and worse 4.44 xFIP. He's also at the mercy of batted-ball vagaries, owning a tiny 15.4 K%. As a result, the Guardians are an attractive stack tonight.
- Austin Riley has built on his breakout 2021 season. In 640 plate appearances, he's hit 37 homers with a .347 OBP, .266 ISO and 144 wRC+.
- William Contreras has regularly forced himself into Atlanta's lineup with his blistering bat. He's hit 19 dongs with a .344 OBP, .239 ISO and 136 wRC+ this year.
- Steven Kwan is tailor-made for the leadoff spot. He's had a .375 OBP, 17 stolen bases and a 123 wRC+ this year.
- Andres Gimenez has blossomed at the dish this season. In 515 plate appearances, he's swatted 16 homers, stolen 18 bases and had a .370 OBP and 141 wRC+.
- David Peralta has had a decent 115 wRC+ against righties with his retooled swing this season. Conversely, Jose Berrios has been ripped for a .521 SLG and .374 wOBA against lefties.
Thursday's Hitter Strategy
The Braves and Guardians are great sources of offense. Thankfully, the Guardians are also an excellent source of salary relief from Atlanta's high-salaried hitters.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.