We’re fortunate not to have any morning games, but we still have plenty of games to examine. Six of the games take place before the 7ET main slate, so we’re going to break down the other nine games. The pitching pool is ridiculous, so let’s go ahead and start there!
Starting Pitcher Rankings
| PLAYER |
DK SALARY |
FD SALARY |
VALUE |
RISK |
| Corbin Burnes (MIL) at ARI |
$9,600 |
$10,400 |
Low |
Low |
| Julio Urias (LAD) vs. SD |
$8,700 |
$10,300 |
Medium |
Low |
| Max Scherzer (NYM) vs. WAS |
$10,900 |
$11,200 |
Low |
Low |
| Jake Odorizzi (ATL) vs. MIA |
$6,100 |
$8,100 |
High |
Medium |
We’re fortunate not to have any morning games, but we still have plenty of games to examine. Six of the games take place before the 7ET main slate, so we’re going to break down the other nine games. The pitching pool is ridiculous, so let’s go ahead and start there!
Starting Pitcher Rankings
| PLAYER |
DK SALARY |
FD SALARY |
VALUE |
RISK |
| Corbin Burnes (MIL) at ARI |
$9,600 |
$10,400 |
Low |
Low |
| Julio Urias (LAD) vs. SD |
$8,700 |
$10,300 |
Medium |
Low |
| Max Scherzer (NYM) vs. WAS |
$10,900 |
$11,200 |
Low |
Low |
| Jake Odorizzi (ATL) vs. MIA |
$6,100 |
$8,100 |
High |
Medium |
Starting Pitcher Strategy
The top-end pitching on this slate is incredible. You have to pay up to use aces like Scherzer and Burnes, but both guys are worth it considering their matchups. We also have some cheaper pitchers that we like, too, but it’s looking like a slate where you need to pay a premium to get the studs into your build. With that in mind, let’s look at those NL Cy Young candidates.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Max Scherzer (NYM) vs. WAS
Mad Max doesn’t need any extra motivation, but you better believe he’ll be motivated against his former team. It’s a Nationals lineup that’s a shell of what we saw earlier in the season, losing Juan Soto and Josh Bell at the trade deadline. That has them as a bottom-five lineup in the second half, which is terrifying against a pitcher with a 2.27 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. The oddsmakers certainly love him, making the Mets a -450 favorite in this majestic matchup.
Corbin Burnes (MIL) at ARI
Burnes is actually amid his worst three-start stretch of the season, but we’re willing to overlook that. The 2021 NL Cy Young winner still has a 2.84 ERA and 0.98 WHIP for the year, posting a 2.39 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 11.4 K/9 rate before that slump. A matchup with Arizona is the perfect way to get him rolling again, with the Diamondbacks ranked 21st in OBP and 19th in OPS. That has him entering this matchup as a -190 favorite.
GPP Recommendations:
Julio Urias (LAD) vs. SD
Not enough people are talking about how good this lefty has been. The young southpaw is slinging a 2.32 ERA and 0.95 WHIP for the year. His recent form is even more ridiculous, registering a 1.08 ERA and 0.78 WHIP across his last eight starts. A matchup with San Diego might scare some people, but this offense has been one of the worst in baseball since all of those big acquisitions at the trade deadline. Urias has exploited that, allowing just one run across 17 innings in their last three matchups.
Jake Odorizzi (ATL) vs. MIA
The Braves made a quiet move by acquiring Odorizzi at the deadline, but it’s proven to be a great trade. Over his last 14 starts, Jake has a 3.30 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. That’s all you could hope for from such a cheap player, especially since he faces a 27th-ranked Marlins offense. The best part about this is the odds, with Odorizzi and Atlanta entering this matchup as a -200 favorite.
Top Lineup Stacks
New York Mets (vs. Patrick Corbin)
This couldn’t be a better situation. The Mets are Top-5 in nearly every offensive statistic, and they get to face the worst pitcher in baseball here. That’s Patrick Corbin, compiling a 6.56 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. That has NY projected for five runs, which seems low since they have 19 hits and 11 runs in their last two matchups this season.
Milwaukee Brewers (vs. Madison Bumgarner)
We always like using Milwaukee against subpar southpaws. Madison Bumgarner is certainly that right now, amassing a 4.87 ERA and 1.47 WHIP this season. His recent form is even more concerning, surrendering at least four runs in six straight starts. This Brewers lineup is full of talented righties too, and we’ll dive into some of those in the next section.
Baltimore Orioles (vs. Adam Oller)
Using weak offenses can be tricky, but this Orioles team has some upside. They have numerous cheap bats that are getting better by the day, and they could definitely exploit a matchup with Adam Oller. The Oakland righty has a 5.66 ERA and 1.52 WHIP this season. That makes this team one of the sneakiest stacks of the day, and they could pair beautifully with the Mets.
Core Studs
| POS |
PLAYER |
DK SALARY |
FD SALARY |
| 1B |
Pete Alonso (NYM) |
$5,500 |
$3,700 |
| OF |
Hunter Renfroe (MIL) |
$4,200 |
$3,700 |
| OF |
Cedric Mullins (BAL) |
$5,200 |
$3,100 |
| OF |
Mookie Betts (LAD) |
$6,500 |
$4,700 |
| 1B |
Paul Goldschmidt (STL) |
$6,400 |
$4,600 |
- What if I told you the best hitter on the Mets has the platoon advantage against Corbin? That happens to be Big Pete, providing a .512 OBP, .882 SLG, and 1.394 OPS in 43 at-bats against Corbin. That’s a large sample size, and it’s scary since he did most of that damage when Corbin was actually a good pitcher.
- Renfroe is the best play in this Brewers stack. The slugging outfielder has a career-best .506 SLG this season, generating a .352 OBP, .506 SLG, and .858 OPS against left-handers since 2020. His recent form is ridiculous, too, registering a .456 OBP and 1.096 OPS across his last 13 games. He’s also got a .333 AVG and .857 SLG in 21 at-bats against MadBum.
- If we’re going to stack the O’s, we have to use their leadoff hitter. That happens to be Mullins, who’s led this team in fantasy points over the last few years. Most of his damage has come against right-handers, tallying a .298 AVG, .499 SLG, and .861 OPS against them since 2020. He’s also got almost all of his steals against righties, and he’s the best play in this Baltimore stack.
- Mookie is one of the frontrunners for MVP, and he’s always a good play, no matter the matchup. The Dodgers leadoff man has been scorching for weeks, amassing a .383 OBP and 1.071 OPS across his last 27 games. That looks even better since he has the platoon advantage against Sean Manaea, maintaining a 7.29 ERA and 1.68 WHIP across his last seven starts. Not to mention, Mookie has a .417 OBP, .818 SLG, and 1.235 OPS in 24 at-bats, matching up with Manaea.
- Goldy is the frontrunner for NL MVP, and it’s easy to understand why. The perennial All-Star has a .332 AVG, .418 OBP, .617 SLG, and 1.035 OPS this year. His numbers against lefties are even more absurd, accumulating a .517 OBP and 1.347 OPS against them.
Value Plays/Punts
| POS |
PLAYER |
DK SALARY |
FD SALARY |
| OF |
Andrew McCutchen (MIL) |
$3,700 |
$2,400 |
| 1B/OF |
Mark Canha (NYM) |
$3,700 |
$3,100 |
| OF |
Tyler O’Neill (STL) |
$5,600 |
$3,400 |
| C |
Adley Rutschman (BAL) |
$5,400 |
$2,800 |
| OF |
Jesse Winker (SEA) |
$3,900 |
$2,300 |
- Cutch has quietly had a bounce-back year in Milwaukee, picking up most of his numbers against left-handers. In fact, Cutch has compiled a .368 OBP and .917 OPS against lefties since 2020. That’s all you could hope for from such a cheap player, and it’ll likely have him batting fourth or fifth in this bludgeoning Brewers stack.
- Not many of the Mets hitters will be cheap, but Canha is the best value of the bunch. He will likely bat right behind Pete Alonso, doing most of his damage against left-handers throughout his career. That’s big news against Corbin when considering Canha’s recent form, accruing a .341 AVG, .426 OBP, .805 SLG, and 1.230 OPS across his last 13 games. He’s also got incredible BvP numbers, producing a 1.129 OPS in 13 at-bats against PC.
- It’s been a slow season for O’Neill, but this 2021 breakout is starting to get going. The jacked outfielder had 32 dingers, and 14 steals last season, generating a .385 OBP and 1.118 OPS across his last nine games. He’s also hitting from the right side against Drew Smyly, who’s flirting with a 5.00 ERA since 2016.
- Rutschman has changed the culture in Baltimore, and it looks like this rookie will be a superstar for years to come. It’s rare to see so much talent from the catcher position, but Adley has amassed a .382 OBP and .860 OPS since June 11. His opposite splits are just as superb, posting a .369 OBP and .855 OPS against righties this year.
- Winker has had a rough debut season in Seattle, but he should never be this cheap in a matchup like this. Like many of these guys, Winker has crushed with the platoon advantage in his favor. He’s actually just shy of a .400 OBP and .900 OPS against righties since 2019, and he should have no problem exploiting a pitcher making his second career start.
Hitter Strategy
I try not to lean on BvP too much, but there are so many great numbers from a myriad of these hitters. All of them appear to be in fantastic spots, but no one is quite up to par with the Mets. It’s one of the best lineups in baseball facing one of the worst pitchers, and they’re easily the best stack of the day. It’s not easy to use those guys because of their lofty prices, but we have plenty of value in the punt section to pair them with. Some of the other teams that we like include the Oakland Athletics, St. Louis Cardinals, and Los Angeles Dodgers, along with the Orioles and Brewers. There’s plenty to find from those five teams, which should make lineup construction a breeze.
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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.
