MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer: Saturday (9/17)

This sounds crazy to say, but we’re down to the final three weeks of the regular season. It’s always wild to feel like the season has been going on forever and then realize it’s ending so abruptly. That always stinks as a baseball fan, but the playoffs should be one more month of beautiful baseball. There’s a ton to discuss on this Saturday slate, so let’s start with the arms!

Starting Pitcher Rankings

Starting Pitcher Strategy

This pitching pool is ridiculous. Limiting it to four guys was challenging, but we found four borderline aces in excellent spots. Some of the guys that didn’t make the cut include Shohei Ohtani, Joe Musgrove, George Kirby, Aaron Nola, and Brandon Woodruff. All of those guys are incredible pitchers, but we don’t trust their salaries in such tough matchups. Our four recommendations have much easier oppositions, so let’s start with the hottest pitcher in baseball.

Cash Game Recommendations:

Zac Gallen (ARI) vs. SD

Gallen posting a 12-2 record for a team like Arizona is telling. The right-hander has allowed three runs or fewer in 11 straight starts, generating a 1.13 ERA, 0.68 WHIP, and 9.9 K/9 rate in that span. Jacob deGrom is the only other pitcher with better averages, and it makes Gallen the safest option on every slate right now. The Padres appear to have a formidable lineup on paper, but they’ve been a bottom-10 offense since the All-Star break.

Jose Urquidy (HOU) vs. OAK

Using anyone against Oakland is profitable. This offense sits 29th or 30th in runs scored, OBP, OPS, wOBA, and xwOBA, losing almost every game. That seems likely here, with Urquidy and the Stros entering this matchup as a -300 favorite. It’s easy to understand why they’re such big favorites when looking at Urquidy’s averages, accruing a 2.91 ERA and 0.91 WHIP across his last 14 starts.

GPP Recommendations:

Chris Bassitt (NYM) vs. PIT

Bassitt is only in this section because he was blown up by the Cubs earlier in the week. Before that, Bassitt had a 2.32 ERA and 1.04 WHIP across his previous 12 starts. That’s all you can ask for against a team like Pittsburgh, with the Pirates ranked bottom-three in runs scored, OBP, OPS, WOBA, and K rate. That was on full display when Bassitt picked up 10 strikeouts across seven one-run innings against this putrid Pirates team in their most recent matchup.

Julio Urias (LAD) at SF

It’s almost unfair to throw Urias in the GPP section, but that shows how deep this pitching pool is. This left-hander has crept into the AL Cy Young conversation, compiling a 2.30 ERA and 0.95 WHIP for the year. He’s been even better since the opening month, scoring at least 25 FanDuel points in 20 of his last 21 starts. A run like that is tough to find, and he shouldn’t have any issues in ORACLE Park. In his four starts against San Fran this year, Julio has a 0.75 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, and 9.4 K/9 rate.

Top Lineup Stacks

St. Louis Cardinals (vs. Mike Minor)

• Home (Busch Stadium)
• Value: Medium
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9 Runs/STL -250

The Cardinals have been the best team against left-handers all year, and they’re going to mash a pitcher like Mike Minor. The Reds lefty has a 5.48 ERA and 1.58 WHIP, surrendering six runs to the Pirates earlier in the week. Posting a line like that against Pittsburgh is disastrous, and it surely won’t get any better against raking righties like Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Tyler O’Neill, and Albert Pujols.

Los Angeles Dodgers (vs. Alex Young)

• Road (ORACLE Park)
• Value: Low
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8 Runs/LAD -250

The Dodgers are a good matchup against anybody because they have the best lineup in baseball. They rank at the top of almost every offensive category, sending out All-Stars night after night. That’s terrible news for an inexperienced Alex Young, who’s got a 5.60 ERA and 1.61 WHIP since his rookie season. All of that has the Dodgers projected for nearly six runs.

New York Mets (vs. Bryse Wilson)

• Home (Citi Field)
• Value: Medium
• Risk: Medium
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8 Runs/NYM -300

The Mets have been sliding the last two weeks, but this is still one of the best offenses in baseball. They still rank Top-5 in BA, runs scored, and OBP, sending out one of the deepest lineups around. That’s not nice for Bryse Wilson, who’s got a 6.03 ERA and 1.50 WHIP this year. We have a few guys from this team in the next section but don’t forget about Daniel Vogelbach, Fransisco Lindor, and Eduardo Escobar.

Core Studs

• We discussed how the Cardinals are the best stack on this slate, and Goldy is the top option on the board. The NL MVP frontrunner has a .324 AVG, .413 OBP, .603 SLG, and 1.016 OPS for the year. His splits are even more sensational, sporting a .524 OBP, .854 SLG, and 1.379 OPS against left-handers. We also don’t mind that Goldy has a .600 AVG, 1.267 SLG, and 1.914 OPS in 17 at-bats against Minor.
• Bregman struggled before the break, but this guy has been one of the best hitters since then. In fact, Bregman has a .451 OBP, .631 SLG, and 1.081 OPS across his last 33 games. He’s also slaughtered southpaws throughout his career, flirting with a .400 OBP and .950 OPS against them. Irvin surrendered five runs to this Houston team six starts ago, generating a 6.50 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in that span.
• Betts is in the NL MVP running, collecting 110 runs, 77 RBI, 34 homers, and 12 steals this year. Those are some of the best counting statistics in the sport, and it’s wild since he has a .966 OPS over his last 50 games. Getting him to bat atop the best lineup is the icing on the cake because he also has a .395 OBP and 1.048 OPS against left-handers as well.
• Alonso has been struggling since the break, but he comes into this matchup amid a nine-game hitting streak. That mini hot streak is hopefully a sign of things to come, with Alonso accumulating a .425 OBP and 1.065 OPS in that span. That’s the slugger we’ve seen all season, and he’s the critical piece to a Mets stack.
• I don’t understand Eloy’s pricing. This has been one of the best hitters over the last month, tallying a .357 AVG, .427 OBP, .595 SLG, and 1.022 OPS across his previous 48 games. That alone makes him too cheap, especially since Eloy gets the platoon advantage against a pitcher with a 4.50 ERA and 1.39 WHIP.

Value Plays/Punts

• McNeil has been hitting third for the Mets recently, and that should be his spot again here. The lefty bat hasn’t shown much power, but he’s got a .323 AVG this season. He’s been raking recently, too, registering a .383 AVG and .885 OPS across his last 13 games. Not to mention, Wilson has some of the worst splits against lefties in MLB.
• Everybody knows how close Pujols is to 700 bombs, but many don’t realize how hot he’s been. The first-ballot Hall-of-Famer has 13 homers across his last 108 at-bats, posting a .371 OBP, .721 SLG, and 1.092 OPS in that span. His splits are also superb, amassing a 1.169 OPS against lefties this year.
• Many people know about Trayce because of his brother, but this dude has been killing it in LA. Over his last 17 games, Thompson has totaled a .345 OBP, .620 SLG, and .965 OPS. That earned him a role in the cleanup spot for this ridiculous lineup earlier in the week, and he’d be the best value of the day if he bats in the Top-5 yet again.
• Miranda has quietly been a great hitter for the Twins. They’ve rewarded him by moving him to the three-hole, with Miranda maintaining a .411 OBP and .878 OPS across his last 17 games. The best part is this matchup, though, with Jose getting the platoon advantage against a pitcher with a 1.57 WHIP.
• Fraley has been doing damage all season in Cincy, but not many people realize it. The outfielder has been crushing righties, registering a .354 OBP, .507 SLG, and .861 OPS against them. That’s all you could hope for from a player in this price range, and he shouldn’t have any issues against Dakota Hudson’s 4.43 ERA and 1.42 WHIP.

Hitter Strategy

This might be an expensive strategy, but I want to stack the Cardinals and Mets. These two offenses have been incredible all season, and both of them are in magical spots. I’d venture to say that the two of them could combine for 15 runs and that’d be guaranteed cash in DFS. We can mix and match those elite offenses with cheaper stacks, including the Twins, Reds, and Guardians. You can’t forget about the Dodgers and Astros, though, because those offenses have some serious upside too.

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.