We finally have some appealing targets at the RB position.
With David Montgomery sustaining a leg injury that could be either an MCL sprain or a high-ankle sprain, Khalil Herbert is going to draw out some FAAB dollars this week – particularly since Herbert turned in such an impressive performance after Montgomery left.
Dalvin Cook injured his shoulder again – a common occurrence, unfortunately – so fantasy managers are going to chase Alexander Mattison in leagues where he isn’t already rostered.
There are some appealing targets at WR and TE, too. In fact, this has been the best fishing in the waiver pond all season. Grab those tackle boxes and get into the boat, friends.
(Rostership percentages are based on Yahoo leagues, Recommended FAAB bids are based on a $100 budget.)
Grade: B+
Written by Derek Brown, Bo McBrayer and Pat Fitzmaurice
Week 4 Waiver Wire Rankings
Running Backs
Written by Bo McBrayer
Khalil Herbert (RB – CHI): 49% rostered
- Next opponents: @NYG, @MIN, WAS
- True value: $23
- Desperate need: $39
- Budget-minded: $9
Analysis: The best time to acquire Khalil Herbert was any of the previous three weeks, when I ranked him as the best handcuff-with-standalone-value in fantasy. You can still get him in half of Yahoo leagues, but his Tuesday price tag will be substantial. David Montgomery suffered multiple lower-body injuries on Sunday and did not return. His “backup,” Herbert, took the bull by the horns and dropped a huge fantasy performance on the Texans, with 20 carries for 157 yards and two touchdowns. The schedule is also very manageable for the Bears for a few games. I see Herbert as the top priority waiver claim for Week 4.
David Montgomery Injury Outlook
Alexander Mattison (RB – MIN): 55% rostered*
- Next opponents: @NO, CHI, @MIA
- True value: $9
- Desperate need: $23
- Budget-minded: $5
Analysis: The caveat here is that Mattison is over the typical 50% threshold to grace this column, but Dalvin Cook‘s shoulder injury has activated Mattison managers like the Undertaker. Cook has a long history of shoulder injuries, and there have been times when he’s sustained one and didn’t even miss the next game. If that’s the case and Cook is active in Week 5 but on a snap count, it would be very tough to pull the trigger on starting Mattison. The risk is massive. Either Cook plays full snaps and renders Mattison completely unusable, or Cook is limited and Mattison is cooking on your bench. If Cook misses any games, Mattison is a premium handcuff with RB2 upside.
Trestan Ebner (RB – CHI): 0% rostered
- Next opponents: @NYG, @MIN, WAS
- True value: $3
- Desperate need: $5
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: Ebner might be just a stash to many fantasy managers, but I might want to toss a couple extra FAAB dollars to get him as a short-term PPR weapon. If David Montgomery is out for an extended amount of time, the Bears will likely be forced to increase Ebner’s snap share and touches. Ebner is a strong receiver with incredible speed and quickness. Let’s call him a stash-plus.
Stash candidates: James Cook, Tyler Allgeier, Jaylen Warren, Eno Benjamin, Craig Reynolds
Cook and Allgeier have both seen gradual increases in work as the season progresses, but neither has made a lasting impression to earn promotion to waiver priority pickups.
Unfortunately, injuries are commonly the driving force for waiver pickups at the RB position. Cook has a healthy Devin Singletary and Zack Moss sharing the work, while Allgeier is only showing up to spell Cordarrelle Patterson.
Jaylen Warren and Eno Benjamin were close to seeing more action when Najee Harris and James Conner got dinged up, but neither ultimately missed any game time to let the youngsters spread their wings.
With D’Andre Swift likely to miss some time, Jamaal Williams will take another step forward in value. Since he is heavily rostered already, it would be smart to stash Williams’ backup, Craig Reynolds. He has seen some modest work over the past couple of years and has some decent traits. Reynolds could be thrust into action at any time if Williams also gets nicked.
Wide Receivers
Written by Derek Brown
Wide Receivers
Written by Derek Brown
Treylon Burks (WR – TEN): 45% rostered
- Next opponents: @IND, @WAS, BYE
- True value: $10
- Desperate need: $15
- Budget-minded: $8
Analysis: Treylon Burks exited Week 3 with a paltry two targets and one carry – numbers that don’t begin to describe the step we saw him take this week. Burks became a full-time player, leading the Titans with 27 routes run and ranking second in snaps among wide receivers. While the box score didn’t reflect this change in role, we need to be buying in. Entering Week 3, Burks was eighth in target per route run rate and seventh in yards per route run. These numbers reflect talent, and Burks now has the runway clear to compete with Robert Woods weekly for the team lead in targets.
Russell Gage (WR – TB): 42% rostered
- Next opponents: KC, ATL, @PIT
- True value: $4
- Desperate need: $8
- Budget-minded: $2
Analysis: Russell Gage stepped up in Week 3 as Tom Brady‘s security blanket. Gage led the Buccaneers in every conceivable receiving category, snagging 12 of his 13 targets with 87 receiving yards and a score. Gage earned a 30.9% target share. Even with Mike Evans returning next week, Julio Jones and Chris Godwin are still laid up with injuries. Gage should continue to garner high-value looks from Tom Brady.
Romeo Doubs (WR – GB): 25% rostered
- Next opponents: NE, NYG, NYJ
- True value: $4
- Desperate need: $8
- Budget-minded: $2
Analysis: The Packers discussed getting Romeo Doubs more involved this week, and it happened. Doubs led the Packers with a 22.8% target share while ranking first in routes run. With Sammy Watkins hitting the IR and Christian Watson now dealing with another injury, the mercurial Aaron Rodgers might be forced to lean on Doubs along with Allen Lazard. Lazard has rapport with Rodgers, but it’s not insane to think that Doubs could take over the lead role in Green Bay if he continues to play this well.
Greg Dortch (WR – ARI): 17% rostered
- Next opponents: CLE, @TB, SF
- True value: $4
- Desperate need: $6
- Budget-minded: $2
Analysis: Greg Dortch SZN remains in full effect as long as Rondale Moore is sidelined. After three weeks, Dortch has a 16.3% target share. He ran circles around the Rams, securing 9 of 10 targets with 80 receiving yards. This after finishing as the WR29 and WR22 in the first two games of the season. Dortch looks primed to continue his WR3 production as long as he holds the starting job.
Zay Jones (WR – JAC): 10% rostered
- Next opponents: @PHI, HOU, @IND
- True value: $2
- Desperate need: $3
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: Three games into the season, Jones has seen a 25% or higher target share in two games (25%, 13%, 30%). Jones entered this week 12th among wide receivers in red zone targets. Add his volume on top of this red zone role, and you have a solid flex play in any week. With Trevor Lawrence looking revitalized, grab Jones to strengthen your roster depth and survive the upcoming bye weeks.
Joshua Palmer (WR – LAC): 27% rostered
- Next opponents: @HOU, @CLE, DEN
- True value: $2
- Desperate need: $3
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: Joshua Palmer nearly crossed the century mark this week (99 receiving yards) with his 20% target share. Palmer will continue to see heavy volume in this offense as long as Keenan Allen is sidelined. With Palmer’s next two matchups against weaker secondaries, he is an upside flex who could easily put up top-24 numbers in any given week.
Stash candidates: Mack Hollins, Michael Gallup, Isaiah McKenzie
Mack Hollins entered this week with a 12.3% target share and 1.09 yards per route run as the WR73 in fantasy. With Hunter Renfrow out, Hollins tied Davante Adams with a 22.7% target share as he popped off for 158 yards and a score. Hollins is a fine stash, but don’t start plugging him into your lineup just yet. The chances of a 29-year-old journeyman wide receiver who has never finished higher than WR103 in any season becoming a fantasy stud are slim.
Michael Gallup is worth a stash if you have the bench space. CeeDee Lamb‘s performance so far this season has been uneven. With Dalton Schultz also banged up, Gallup could be start-worthy as soon as Dak Prescott returns.
Isaiah McKenzie keeps producing, with a 7-76-1 performance in Week 3. McKenzie is only a stash, because even though his talent is on display anytime he gets the ball in his hands, he still was on the field for just 55% of Josh Allen‘s dropbacks. Investing in a player to continue to post big box scores on limited snaps is dangerous.
Tight Ends
Written by Derek Brown
David Njoku (TE – CLE): 51% rostered
- Next opponents: @ATL, LAC, NE
- True value: $13
- Desperate need: $18
- Budget-minded: $6
Analysis: After two quiet weeks with his top-four snap share and top 18 route participation, David Njoku was bound to break out. Yes, I know I’m cheating because he’s rostered in just over 50% of Yahoo leagues, but I don’t care. People need to know. If Njoku is out there in your league, you should be picking him up. The upside for a player with his athletic measurables seeing a 32.2% target share like he did against Pittsburgh is ridiculous. Njoku can compete with Amari Cooper for the team lead in targets.
Tyler Conklin (TE – NYJ): 21% rostered
- Next opponents: @PIT, MIA, @GB
- True value: $3
- Desperate need: $6
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: Tyler Conklin entered Week 3 as the PPR TE9 in fantasy on the strength of his top-10 snap share (third-best) and route participation (eighth). Conklin has been an inefficient target magnet, ranking fifth in receptions and 33rd in yards per route run. With plus matchups in two of his next three games, Conklin could still return top-10 fantasy numbers.
Logan Thomas (TE – WAS): 37% rostered
- Next opponents: @DAL, TEN, @CHI
- True value: $3
- Desperate need: $6
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: Thomas entered Week 3 as the PPR TE10, and while he didn’t have a strong game on Sunday, the arrow is still pointing up for him. After his route participation hovered in the 60% range for back-to-back weeks, he hit 83.7% in Week 3. That’s fantastic news for a player who entered the week ranking 13th in yards per route run. Thomas can hold onto his top-12 fantasy tight end status for the rest of the season.
Evan Engram (TE – JAC): 26% rostered
- Next opponents: @PHI, HOU, @IND
- True value: $3
- Desperate need: $6
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: Engram was a top-12 fantasy tight end (TE12) going into Week 3. His target share dropped to 7.6% in a Week 3 dud game, but he’s still worth picking up. Engram entered Week 3 ranked 11th among tight ends in routes. In light of his 82% route participation on Sunday, he should remain inside the top 12. Routes and snaps are the magic elixir for fantasy tight ends, and Engram is sipping from it.
Stash candidates: None
Quarterbacks
Written by Bo McBrayer
Jameis Winston (QB – NO): 42% rostered
- Next opponents: MIN, SEA, CIN
- True value: $5
- Desperate need: $8
- Budget-minded: $2
Analysis: Jameis stays on the top of the streaming list at QB this week after a “bad” performance still saw him throw for 353 yards in Charlotte. The next defenses on the schedule don’t have nearly the young talent that Carolina displayed in Week 2, so Winston is in line to keep the aerial attack humming. His chemistry with rookie Chris Olave has been awesome to see the last two weeks, and looping in Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas is icing on the cake.
Jared Goff (QB – DET): 45% rostered
- Next opponents: SEA, @NE, Bye
- True value: $5
- Desperate need: $8
- Budget-minded: $2
Analysis: Goff has been a pleasant fantasy surprise so far in 2022, even after a modest one-touchdown game in Minnesota in Week 3. I favor him slightly over Winston for Week 4, but the appeal to keeping Winston active for a longer stretch as a plug-in fantasy starter is completely understandable. Amon-Ra St Brown and T.J. Hockenson have been joined in the fun by D.J. Chark, with D’Andre Swift still yet to get going in the passing game. The eventual debut of Jameson Williams is another reason to leave Goff on waivers until later in the season.
Marcus Mariota (QB – ATL): 22% rostered
- Next opponents: CLE, @TB, SF
- True value: $4
- Desperate need: $7
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: Mariota was in line for a good chance at a ceiling game at Seattle, but he was unable to make the explosive plays to get it done. It was the first win of the season for Atlanta nonetheless. Mariota finally got his stud TE Kyle Pitts going, looking The Unicorn’s way eight times for a solid 5/87 line (40% target share). Mariota also tossed his only touchdown pass to rookie phenom Drake London and rushed another one in himself. The upcoming schedule is a bit tougher, so he’s carrying a lower streaming priority going into Week 4.
Jimmy Garoppolo (QB – SF): 37% rostered
- Next opponents: LAR, @CAR, @ATL
- True value: $2
- Desperate need: $4
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: Jimmy G is terrible. For every good throw Garoppolo flips to his receivers, there are two or more critical mistakes or simple misfires. Good game-managing QBs might make physical mistakes but tend to limit the mental errors that cost their teams games. Jimmy G is notorious for both, with his supporting cast famously bailing him out to get “him” the win. His early TD pass to Brandon Aiyuk in Denver Sunday night was sadly the only good highlight in an otherwise nightmarish performance and 11-10 loss. The next two weeks are not walks in the park either, so if you’re brave enough to stream Garoppolo, keep your expectations firmly on the ground.
Stash candidates: Malik Willis, Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder
Analysis: We will stick with the “stream, don’t stash” rule for QBs in most leagues, but leagues that dig deeper into the player pool might warrant a stash for one of the rookies with reasonable hopes of starting at some point in 2022. Although Mike Tomlin has not budged in his resolve to keep Mitchell Trubisky as his starter, I don’t ultimately expect the old ball coach to stake his career record of zero losing seasons on a journeyman bridge QB with a first-round pick waiting in the wings.
As for Willis and Ridder, their teams enjoyed their first wins of the season in Week 3. Ryan Tannehill took the rest of the game off when Buffalo was whalloping them in Week 2, but Willis didn’t exactly look sharp in mop-up duty.
Ridder has yet to see any game action, but Mariota hasn’t been terrible to his own credit. We shall see what the leash situation will be if Atlanta loses a few more games.
Defenses
Written by Pat Fitzmaurice
Minnesota Vikings: 19% rostered
- Next opponents: @NO, CHI, @MIA
- True value: $2
- Desperate need: $3
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: The Vikings’ defense, averaging a respectable 7.0 fantasy points per game, will be in London for an attractive Week 4 matchup against a Saints offense that has scored only 24 points in its last two games. Saints QB Jameis Winston has thrown five interceptions this season and has been sacked 11 times. In Week 5, the Vikings face a Bears offense that has been responsible for four interceptions and 10 sacks. Since you can roll out the Vikings for the next two weeks, it’s acceptable to spend $2 or $3 on them instead of putting in a standard $1 bid for a streaming D.
Kansas City Chiefs: 44% rostered
- Next opponents: @TB, LV, BUF
- True value: $1
- Desperate need: NA
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: As noted last week, the Chiefs have been a top-12 defense in fantasy scoring in each of Patrick Mahomes‘ four seasons as a starter, largely because Mahomes puts pressure on opposing offenses to keep up with Kansas City’s offense by forcing opponents to throw. That means more opportunities for sacks and interceptions. In Week 2, Justin Herbert and the Chargers were trying to keep up, and a Herbert throw intended for TE Gerald Everett was intercepted by CB Javien Watson and returned 99 yards for a TD. In Week 4, the Chiefs visit Tampa for a Sunday-night matchup against a Buccaneers offense that seemed stuck in mud for most of a Week 3 loss to the Packers.
New York Giants: 10% rostered
- Next opponents: CHI, @GB, BAL
- True value: $1
- Desperate need: NA
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: The return of rookie edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux from a knee injury should help the Giants’ pass rush, and Week 4 brings an appealing matchup with the Bears and their punchless passing attack. Bears QB Justin Fields has thrown four interceptions and taken 10 sacks.
Detroit Lions: 1% rostered
- Next opponents: SEA, @NE, BYE
- True value: $1
- Desperate need: NA
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: As of Week 3, the Lions had the lowest rostership rate of any defense. There’s good reason for that. Detroit’s defense is a work in progress. But we’re targeting bad offenses with our streaming defenses, and the Lions have a good matchup against QB Geno Smith and the Seahawks this week. In Week 5, the Lions face the Patriots, who could potentially be without QB Mac Jones.
Stash candidate: Jacksonville Jaguars
The plucky Jaguars shut out the Colts in Week 2 and held the Chargers to 10 points in Week 3. You don’t want to use the Jaguars against the high-flying Eagles in Week 4, but if you have a roster spot to spare, you could grab them for $1 this week and roll them out against the Texans in Week 5.
Kickers
Written by Pat Fitzmaurice
Jake Elliott: 37% rostered
- Next opponents: JAC, @ARI, DAL
- True value: $1
- Desperate need: NA
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: Elliott is making a nice living on PATs alone. He’s kicked 11 of them, and he’s 3-of-4 on FG attempts. The Eagles are going to keep giving him scoring opportunities, and a little less offensive efficiency would actually do Elliott some good, giving him more FG opportunities.
Mason Crosby (GB): 5% rostered
- Next opponents: NE, NYG, NYJ
- True value: $1
- Desperate need: NA
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: Crosby isn’t an especially reliable kicker, and the Packers like to go for it on fourth down. So, what makes Crosby appealing? Well, the Packers’ upcoming schedule is a cakewalk. They have three straight games against teams that have trouble scoring points and keeping the football away from their opponents — two of them home games, one a neutral-site game in London. That should lead to plenty of scoring opportunities. When the Packers finally go on the road again in Week 7, they’ll play the Commanders in Washington. Grab Crosby for a buck and let him kick for you until Week 8, when the Packers visit Buffalo.
Jason Sanders (MIA): 9% rostered
- Next opponents: @CIN, @NYJ, MIN
- True value: $1
- Desperate need: NA
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: The Dolphins have been on such a roll offensively that Sanders has only tried two field goals this season while kicking 11 PATs. He nailed both of the FG tries, of course – Sanders is a good one. With the Dolphins looking like a legitimate AFC contender, Sanders should be a viable fantasy option for the balance of the season. If you don’t grab him now, circle back in a month or two. When the weather starts to turn inclement in northern cities, you might be happy to have a Miami-based kicker.
Austin Seibert (DET): 3% rostered
- Next opponents: SEA, @NE, BYE
- True value: $1
- Desperate need: NA
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: The Lions can put points on the board, and they have an attractive home matchup against the Seahawks this week.
Stash candidate: Harrison Butker
Butker has been out with an ankle injury and has been dropped in a lot of leagues. He should be back soon, and this is a good chance to get a kicker tied to one of the most prolific offenses in the league.
Fool’s Gold
George Pickens had a terrific August and dazzled viewers with a spectacular one-handed catch in the Steelers’ nationally televised loss to the Browns in Week 3, but this home-run hitter isn’t going to connect often enough while paired with Mitchell Trubisky, a terrible deep-ball thrower. If the Steelers make the switch to rookie QB Kenny Pickett … well, let’s revisit Pickens as a waiver prospect when that happens.
DeVante Parker exploded for 5-156-0 in Week 3. Jakobi Meyer’s absence may have had something to do with that, as Parker had one catch in New England’s first two games while Meyers was around. Meyers should be back soon, and now Patriots QB Mac Jones is dealing with an ankle injury that could potentially knock him out for a game or two. Pass.
K.J. Osborn had 5-73-1 in Week 3, but unless Justin Jefferson or Adam Thielen miss games, Osborn isn’t going to get enough target volume to produce consistently.
Breshad Perriman and Cole Beasley played enhanced roles for the Buccaneers in Week 3 with Mike Evans serving a one-game suspension for an altercation with Saints CB Marshon Lattimore. When Evans returns next week, Perriman and Beasley lose nearly all of their fantasy value.
Laviska Shenault truthers had a glorious Sunday, basking in the afterglow of Viska’s 2-90-1 performance against the Saints, which included a 67-yard catch-and-run for a touchdown. Alas, Baker Mayfield hasn’t been able to consistently support D.J. Moore and Christian McCaffrey as pass catchers, so Mayfield certainly isn’t going to be able to consistently support a fickle performer like Shenault.
Drop recommendations
Droppable
There was an inkling that Isaiah Likely might end up being the No. 3 pass catcher for the Ravens after TE Mark Andrews and WR Rashod Bateman. That hasn’t really been the case, but even if it were, being the No. 3 pass catcher in a two-target offense isn’t much of a prize.
So long, Rex Burkhead. The Houston backfield now belongs to Dameon Pierce.
Boston Scott is clearly the No. 3 back in Philly behind Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell.
Seattle has three TEs involved in the passing game, and it’s not a very prolific passing game, making Noah Fant droppable.
The Packers were without Sammy Watkins and Christian Watson in Week 3, and Randall Cobb still drew only two targets. You can ditch him.
D.J. Chark was out-targeted by Josh Reynolds on Sunday. He also has to share targets with Amon-Ra St. Brown, D’Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson, and exciting rookie Jameson Williams will be back from a knee injury before long.
It looks as if the 49ers are just going to roll with Jeff Wilson at RB while Elijah Mitchell is on the shelf, with no room at the inn for Jordan Mason.
Droppable with a chance of regret
Donovan Peoples-Jones had 6-60-0 on 11 targets in Week 1, but he’s drawn only four targets since, as Amari Cooper has become the only Cleveland receiver who matters.
Hunter Henry seems to have been surpassed in the New England TE pecking order by Jonnu Smith.
Don’t drop yet
Bears QB Justin Fields is averaging only 15 pass attempts per game, which is why Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet have failed to launch. What we liked about Mooney and Kmet was that they seemed certain to earn generous target shares. We couldn’t have anticipated just how few targets there would be. But that has to change, doesn’t it? Doesn’t it?! I mean, it’s not as if the Bears are going to be faced with an abundance of generous game scripts. They’re going to have to throw.
Mecole Hardman had a quiet Week 3, but give him another week or two. If he gets some of the high-value targets vacated by ex-Chief Tyreek Hill, the speedy Hardman could be a useful asset to have around when the bye weeks hit.
Maybe it’s never going to happen for Allen Robinson in Los Angeles, but we recommend waiting another week or two before pulling the ripcord.
The Giants are so thin at wide receiver, and Kadarius Toney is so talented. Unfortunately, Toney is hurt all the time, and he doesn’t seem to be endearing himself to new Giants head coach Brian Daboll. Try to hang on until Toney is healthy enough to get back on the field. Then, if you don’t see any sparks, send Toney packing.
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