Matthew Freedman’s Fantasy Football Week 4 Rankings & Start/Sit Advice (2022)

Running Back

Jamaal Williams (DET) vs. SEA: No. 1 RB D’Andre Swift (shoulder, ankle) might miss Week 4, so Williams could have an expanded role in the offense, especially as a big home favorite (-6 at PointsBet). Williams is No. 1 in the league with eight carries inside the 10-yard line (per our Red Zone Stats Report), and his scoring prowess this year has been unrivaled.

The Seahawks defense is No. 31 in adjusted line yards (5.10), and the Lions offensive line has a massive edge in their matchup, per our unit power rankings.

Smash city.

A.J. Dillon (GB) vs. NE: I like both No. 1 RB Aaron Jones and Dillon in this spot. Dillon has 15-plus opportunities in every game this year, and the Patriots defense is No. 31 in both rush EPA per play (0.114) and rush SR (50.8%). With LT David Bakhtiari’s Week 3 return, the Packers finally have their full offensive line healthy, and they could straight-up bully the Patriots in Week 4.

Dameon Pierce (HOU) vs. LAC: After splitting carries with veteran Rex Burkhead in Week 1, Pierce dominantly outcarried him (35 to 3) in Weeks 2-3 and is locked in as the early-down thumper. Burkhead is still the default receiving back (16 to 4 in targets), but the Chargers — with all their injuries — might struggle to force the Texans into a pass-heavy game script, and their defense is No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to running backs (23.5 FPPG).

Jeff Wilson (SF) vs. LAR: No. 1 RB Elijah Mitchell (knee, IR) is out, as are third-round rookie RB Tyrion Davis-Price (ankle) and running QB Trey Lance (ankle, IR). Starting in place of Mitchell, Wilson is 30-159-0 rushing and 5-50-0 receiving on five targets over the past two weeks, and in his 12 career games with 15-plus opportunities Wilson has averaged 16.7 FPPG. Under HC Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers are 8-3 ATS against the Rams.

Check out my Week 4 early betting breakdown on Rams at 49ers. 

Kareem Hunt (CLE) at ATL: Even with No. 1 RB Nick Chubb dominating opponents, Hunt in every game has managed to earn 15-16 opportunities, which he has leveraged into 205 yards and two touchdowns. The Browns backs have an undeniable matchup edge in our unit power rankings.

Both Chubb and Hunt can go off in Week 4.

Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) at GB: Without QB Mac Jones (ankle), the Patriots could lean more on the running game early in Week 4, but as big underdogs they might eventually be forced to throw. Either way, that works for Stevenson, who last week played ahead of teammate Damien Harris in snaps (41-25), carries (12-11) and routes (25-11, per PFF).

The Packers defense is No. 32 in rush DVOA (14.0%) and adjusted line yards (5.36).

Khalil Herbert (CHI) at NYG: No. 1 RB David Montgomery (knee, ankle) exited Week 3 early, but the early reports indicate that he has a real chance to play this week.

If, though, Montgomery doesn’t play, then Herbert will be a top-12 back in my rankings. He went off with 169 yards and two touchdowns on 22 opportunities last week as the in-game fill-in, and last year he had 388 yards and a touchdown on 78 carries and 10 targets in four games while playing in Montgomery’s place. He has lead back ability, and the Giants are No. 29 in rush EPA per play (0.079).

Wide Receiver

Treylon Burks (TEN) at IND: Despite ranking No. 3 on the Titans with 57 routes and No. 4 with 60 pass play snaps, Burks is No. 1 on the team with 13 targets and No. 2 with 115 yards receiving. His 95.0% route per snap rate and 8.8 yards per target speak to his potential. The Colts defense is No. 29 in dropback SR (52.1%).

Romeo Doubs (GB) vs. NE: Last week, in the absence of WRs Sammy Watkins (hamstring, IR) and Christian Watson (hamstring), the rookie Doubs had a breakout 8-73-1 receiving performance on eight targets with an 89% snap rate against the Buccaneers, who have the No. 1 secondary in our unit power rankings.

He could have similar usage this week in a much easier matchup against the Patriots.

Greg Dortch (ARI) at CAR: Amazingly, Dortch through three weeks has been the No. 2 pass catcher for the Cardinals with 20-198-1 receiving on 23 targets. WR Rondale Moore (hamstring) will likely send Dortch back to the bench when he returns — but he missed every practice last week: He doesn’t seem close to returning. And Dortch could see extra targets this week with WR A.J. Green (knee) expected to be out. As the team’s primary slot receiver, Dortch might have the best matchup of all the pass catchers against CB Myles Hartsfield, who has allowed a 73.8% catch rate for his career.

DeVante Parker (NE) at GB: In the absence of No. 1 WR Jakobi Meyers (knee), Parker last week had 5-156-0 receiving on 10 targets. Meyers is uncertain to play this week, the Packers are No. 32 in pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers (45.8%) and No. 1 CB Jaire Alexander (groin) is dealing with an injury. As big road underdogs, the Patriots could be forced into a pass-heavy game script.

Julio Jones (TB) vs. KC: No. 1 WR Mike Evans will return from suspension this week, but No. 2 WR Chris Godwin (hamstring, knee) might still be out, so if Jones (knee) is able to play he could see some extra usage. That’s a big “if,” but …

… I’m ever hopeful when it comes to Jones. In Week 1 he had a nice 3-69-0 receiving on five targets (as well as 2-17-0 rushing), and since his age-31 season (2020) Jones has averaged 10.5 yards per target. Yes, Jones is fragile — but when he’s on the field he still bangs.

Richie James (NYG) vs. CHI: No. 1 WR Kadarius Toney (hamstring) missed last week. No. 2 WR Sterling Shepard (knee, IR) suffered a season-ending injury on Monday Night Football. No. 3 WR Kenny Golladay (bad) is a nonentity. Slot WR Wan’Dale Robinson (knee) hasn’t played since Week 1. As a result, James has a livable 14-146-0 receiving on 17 targets in three games. For his career, James has a strong 11.0 yards per target, so he at least has some theoretical upside. He’s a desperation play — but sometimes the only option is the best option.

Josh Reynolds (DET) vs. SEA: Since his midseason addition to the Lions last year, Reynolds has been at least a fantasy WR2 in 30% of his games.

He’s a boom/bust player, and in any given week he’s likely to bust — but what matters most is that he actually has the upside to go off, and this week he might actually do it: The Seahawks are N0. 28 in dropback SR (51.9%).

Tight End

Tyler Conklin (NYJ) at PIT: Conklin is No. 1 at the position with 134 routes.

And he’s No. 1 among Jets pass catchers with 209 snaps and No. 2 with 134 routes and 24 targets. His 18-140-1 receiving stat line doesn’t make me hate myself.

David Njoku (CLE) at ATL: After disappointing in Weeks 1-2 with 4-39-0 receiving on six targets, Njoku went off in Week 3 with 9-89-1 receiving on 10 targets. He’s No. 1 among Browns pass catchers with 197 snaps and No. 2 with 16 targets and 13-128-1 receiving. The Falcons defense is No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to tight ends (17.2 FPPG). There’s no way this ends well.

Juwan Johnson (NO) vs. MIN (London): Ugh. Johnson had just one target last week, but he has 13 on the season and is actually No. 4 at the position with 70.5 AirYAC per game. WRs Michael Thomas (foot), Jarvis Landry (ankle) and Tre’Quan Smith (concussion) were all forced from Week 3 with injuries, so he could see extra usage against the Vikings, who are No. 28 in pass DVOA against tight ends (29.3%).

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