Week 1 Quick Grades (2022 Fantasy Football Start or Sit Advice)

We’ve officially made it to the regular season, friends. Thursday night was a nice teaser, but now we’re ready for a full slate of action on Sunday. As always, we’re here to provide you with some Quick Grades (or Start/Sit Grades, if you prefer) for the week.

We tapped into our consensus projections and rankings and Derek Brown’s weekly Primer to generate this week’s Quick Grades. See below for the results and accompanying notes.

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Quarterbacks

Notes

Jameis Winston: Jameis Winston throws down with a dirty bird defense that was 29th in pass defense DVOA, allowing the third-most passing touchdowns last year. Dean Pees’ zone-based scheme was middle of the road against the deep ball (15th in DVOA vs. deep passing), but they were carved up underneath (30th in DVOA vs. short passing). Yes, this doesn’t exactly fit Winston’s propensity to chuck it deep, but there’s a path for Winston to wind up deep in Week 1. The Falcons were also dreadful against play-action passing, finishing with the sixth-highest play-action completion rate and 12th-highest play-action yards per attempt difference last season. Winston was fifth in aDOT and the sixth-highest graded play-action passer per PFF (minimum 100 dropbacks). Winston’s in play as an upside QB2 option.

Trey Lance: Trey Lance is set to come storming out the gate. The Bears offer a beautiful matchup to hit the ground running (pardon the pun). Last season in his brief two-game starter stint, we witnessed his rushing upside as he averaged 12 carries and 60 yards on the ground as the QB20 and QB10 in weekly scoring. Lance also displayed a propensity to push the ball vertically, which should serve him well here. Last year he was second in aDOT and yards per attempt among quarterbacks with at least 80 dropbacks.

Despite their offseason upgrades to the secondary, we shouldn’t view the Bears as a league-average defense (not yet, at least). Last season they were fifth in yards per attempt and third in passing touchdowns allowed. They struggled to defend the deep ball, allowing the most deep passing touchdowns in the NFL and the fifth-highest deep passer rating. Add in that they were tied for second in rushing scores allowed to quarterbacks, and Lance has QB1 overall upside in his first week as the starter.

Justin Fields: The last time Justin Fields faced the 49ers’ defense, he completed 70.4% of his passes while chewing up 103 yards on the ground as the QB5 for the week. While Fields is talented and can rip off long runs at the drop of a hat, this should be an improved 49ers defense. Their secondary was in shambles last year, which entering Week 1 isn’t the case. The outside tandem of Emmanuel Moseley and Charvarius Ward should be stout, with second-rounder Drake Jackson assisting Nick Bosa with getting push up front. Fields’ rushing upside alone gives him top 12 upside, and he’ll need it this week. The 49ers allowed the eighth-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks last year, so there’s a path to upside here in fantasy football, even if his passing numbers are muted this week.

Mitch Trubisky: If you’re considering starting a Pittsburgh quarterback outside of the deepest of superflex leagues the answer is no. The Bengals on paper aren’t a tough matchup after allowing the fourth-highest adjusted completion rate and ranking 11th in yards per attempt last year, but there’s a laundry list of better quarterback options to consider over the bag of meh that is Mitch Trubisky and Kenny Pickett. If Trubisky is named the starter he could easily implode behind the Steelers leaky offensive line. The Bengals were 14th in pressure rate last season. The last time we saw Trubsiky under center as a starter he was 31st and 32nd in PFF grade and adjusted completion rate against pressure (minimum 50 dropbacks).

Tua Tagovailoa: The Patriots were a buzzsaw against quarterbacks last year shredding every signal caller in their path. They were third in pass defense DVOA, allowing the second-lowest fantasy points per game and fourth-fewest passing touchdowns to quarterbacks. The beauty of the dawning of a new NFL season is the changes that take place from year to year. New England’s loss of J.C. Jackson and Miami gaining Tyreek Hill‘s services are both massive.

Tua Tagovailoa fell apart last year against New England with 6.3 yards per attempt in their two meetings. The problem for Tagovailoa is that Miami didn’t have anyone that could succeed against man coverage outside of Jaylen Waddle (33rd in yard per route run against man). That’s changed with Hill in town. While Tagovailoa is only a middling QB2 this week, don’t write him off from having a solid game here fueled by Waddle and Hill.

Joe Flacco: Take Baltimore’s secondary stats and toss them in the trash from last year. This defense was decimated by injury. While Joe Flacco facing off against his former team is interesting, that isn’t a reason to consider Flacco for fantasy. This defense will more closely resemble the one that finished 10th in pass defense DVOA in 2020, allowing the fourth-lowest net yards gained per pass attempt. Over Flacco’s last five NFL starts, he’s only managed to finish higher than QB16 in weekly scoring once (QB14).

Trevor Lawrence: In his inaugural start of the new Doug Pederson era, Trevor Lawrence has been gifted a plus matchup to prove the source of his struggles last year was due to his former flameout head coach. Washington was 28th in pass defense DVOA last season, allowing the sixth-highest yards per attempt, most passing touchdowns, and second-highest first read completion rate (Hello Christian Kirk). The Commanders were only 19th in pressure rate last year, so Lawrence should have ample time in the pocket.

Wide Receivers

Notes

Christian Kirk: Christian Kirk is, without a doubt, the number one wide receiver for this team. He was targeted on an insane 36.3% of his preseason routes while playing 50% of his snaps in the slot. I expect his slot usage to bump up in the regular season. Kirk excelled from the slot last year, ranking 22nd in slot yards per route run (minimum 15 slot targets). In Weeks 9-18, with DeAndre Hopkins less than 100%, he was the WR35 in fantasy points per game. Currently, the team page has Benjamin St.-Juste projected as the team’s starting slot corner. I’d be surprised if that happens. St.-Juste is a bigger, slow corner (25th percentile burst score) who played outside last year, allowing a 64.9% catch rate and 114.5 passer rating. I expect Kendall Fuller to move inside this week to tangle with Kirk. Last year Fuller allowed a 65.5% catch rate and 68.0 passer rating in slot coverage.

Terry McLaurin: Terry McLaurin led Washington last year with a 24% target share and 42% of the team’s air yards as the WR29 in fantasy. He also gobbled up end zone targets with a 31% share. Shaquill Griffin can keep up with him with his 4.3 speed, but Tyson Campbell could be a step behind with his 4.4 speed and 39th percentile burst score. Griffin gave up a 69.5% catch rate and 110.6 passer rating last year. Campbell wasn’t any better, surrendering a 67.1% catch rate and 100.7 passer rating in coverage.

Amari Cooper: Amari Cooper is a declining number one receiver on a run-first offense with a game manager quarterback. Even before we weigh in on the matchup, these are reasons to find it difficult to plug into your lineup. Last year Cooper was the WR25 in fantasy points per game as he struggled to get open. He finished 60th in route win rate while watching his yards per route run dip for the third consecutive season. Cooper will matchup with Donte Jackson and Jaycee Horn on nearly 70% of his routes this week. Jackson allowed a 65.6% catch rate and 89.0 passer rating last year. Horn was limited to only 95 coverage snaps last year (injury), but he only allowed opposing receivers to secure one of their five targets. He’s a physical corner who should give Cooper fits.

Robert Woods and Treylon Burks: Robert Woods is an uninspiring flex play this week. My spider sense doesn’t tingle with aging receivers coming off ACL injuries on run-first teams. Woods was 36th in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets) last year, but his blowup game against SEA skewed that number. In five of his eight other full games, he was below 1.7 yards per route run. Before 2021, he had seen his yards per route run decline in four straight seasons. Unless the Titans become more 11 personnel heavy, he’ll be an outside receiver this year, and we could see Adoree Jackson shadow him with Martindale deploying more man coverage. Last year Adoree shadowed twice, holding opposing receivers to three targets, 1.5 receptions, and 11 receiving yards per game. Overall, Jackson gave up a 55.7% catch rate and 73.4 passer rating last year. When Woods isn’t lining up against Jackson, he’ll see Aaron Robinson on the perimeter, which allowed a 57.1% catch rate and 84.4 passer rating in 2021.

Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy: Courtland Sutton has been discussed all offseason as Russell Wilson‘s go-to wide receiver in camp. Now it’s time to show off the rapport. Sutton struggled through bad quarterback play and came off an ACL injury last year as the WR51 in fantasy points per game. His yards per route run and route win rate were outside the top 60 wide receivers. With improved quarterback play and another year of health, the hope is that he reclaims the promise he flashed in 2019. That season he was 12th in yards per route run and seventh in yards per route run when targeted deep. Last season Seattle was fifth in DVOA against deep passing, so Sutton’s field-stretching skill (sixth in deep targets last year) won’t be needed. He’ll matchup up with Sidney Jones and either rookie Tariq Woolen or Artie Burns on nearly 86% of his routes. Jones allowed a 62.5% catch rate and 106.0 passer rating last year. Burns gave up a 54.5% catch rate and 89.8 passer rating.

Jerry Jeudy played from the slot on 76% of his snaps last season. He showed improvement last year, ranking 27th in yards per route run, but he has never been a high target earner. He’s finished 35th and 30th in targets per route run in his first two seasons. Wilson could focus more on Jeudy this week against a team that was 31st against short passing last year. He’ll see Justin Coleman in coverage from the slot, which allowed a 69.4% catch rate and 67.6 passer rating last year.

Running Backs

Notes

Alvin Kamara: Last season after Mark Ingram was acquired by New Orleans, we only got a brief four-game sample with Ingram and Alvin Kamara both active. In that short stretch, Kamara was the unquestioned lead back. He played at least 60% of the snaps in each game, averaging 16.7 touches and 67.5 total yards with an 18.5% target share. He gobbled up all of the work inside the 20.

If Atlanta is as stout on the ground as they were last year, he’ll have a long day in the rushing department. The Falcons allowed the second-lowest open field yards while also ranking 13th in explosive run rate allowed. However, Kamara can still have a productive day because Atlanta was swiss cheese against running backs near the goal line and through the air. They were 31st in red zone rushing defense (seventh-most rushing touchdowns allowed) and gave up ninth-most receptions to backs. Kamara is a locked-in RB1.

Cordarrelle Patterson: Cordarrelle Patterson began the season in a swiss army knife role before rolling into a traditional running back role. In Weeks 1-10, Patterson played running back on 56.2% of his snaps and outside or in the slot on 37.7% of his snaps. He was a running back for 69.9% of his snaps for the rest of the season, with only 29.5% of his playing time coming as a receiver. Patterson flourished in the multipurpose role. He was the RB10 through the first ten weeks before dipping to RB31 over his final seven weeks.

New Orleans remains a tough draw for running backs. Last year they continued to field a stellar run defense, ranking inside the top nine in adjusted line yards, second-level yards, and open field yards allowed. The Saints were elite on the ground and through the air vs. backs ranking third in DVOA against receiving backs and sporting the fourth-best red zone rushing defense. Patterson is nothing more than a low-end flex play against a team that surrendered the second-fewest fantasy points per game against running backs.

Elijah Mitchell: Last year Elijah Mitchell finished as the RB14 in fantasy points per game purely off of volume averaging 20.5 touches and 100 total yards. He ranked third in opportunity share with the 13th-most carries in only 11 games played. With a rushing quarterback now under center and a 7.0% target share last season, pass game involvement won’t be his path to fantasy success. The Bears lost Akeem Hicks in the offseason which won’t help their run defense despite their attempts to bring in savy veterans like Mike Pennel.

The Bears allowed the seventh-most rushing yards and missed tackles last year. While Mitchell was only 30th in breakaway run rate there’s an opportunity for big plays here against a Windy City front that was 26th in explosive run rate allowed in 2021.

Miles Sanders, Boston Scott, and Kenneth Gainwell: As you can see above, trying to make sense of this backfield will give you a migraine in two seconds. That three way-split in the only two games with all three of these backs doesn’t even include Jordan Howard being active in Week 16, where he saw nine carries and drew four targets.

While Boston Scott was the red zone back in this sample, there are camp reports that the team plans to use Kenneth Gainwell more in high-leverage situations this year. Yes, the water is murky. Muddy. Disgusting. The allure of even considering any of these backs for your lineup is the matchup. Last year the Lions stunk against running backs in every way imaginable. They were 31st in DVOA against receiving backs. They allowed the fifth-most rushing yards and third-most rushing scores. If you’re in a deep league or staring at a Goliath-like matchup in Week 1 and need a ceiling dart throw, I get it. Still, with so many players making it through camp and the preseason healthy across the league, the reality is you probably have a better option. Each of these backs is an RB3/4 dart throw type. This is without even considering the newly signed Trey Sermon.

Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert: The Miami Dolphins have handled this backfield like a 1A/1B situation on early downs with Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert. Chase Edmonds played 76.9% of the snaps with Tagovailoa in Week 2 of the preseason before sitting out Week 3. Mostert was on the field for 75% of Tagovailoa’s snaps in Week 3 without Edmonds active. Edmonds still probably has the edge from a route perspective. He ran a route on every snap in Week 2 when he didn’t get a rushing attempt.

Tagovailoa won’t have to do much in this game if the Patriots’ run defense is still swiss cheese like last year. In 2021 they allowed the highest yards after contact in the NFL and the ninth-most rushing yards. They did hold up well near the goal line (10th in rush red-zone defense), but both of these rushers are home run hitters, so if they get into the open field, they’re gone. Edmonds was 11th in breakaway run rate last year. In 2019 Mostert led the NFL in breakaway run rate. Edmonds’ pass game role gives him a sky-high ceiling in this game. Last season the Patriots couldn’t stop receiving backs, ranking 29th in DVOA, giving up the eighth-most receptions and fourth-most receiving yards. If they break a few long ones, each rusher could find themselves inside the top 20 backs in fantasy scoring this week.

Update: Chase Edmonds has been removed from the injury report (groin) and is expected to be a full-go for Week 1.

J.K. Dobbins, Mike Davis, and Kenyan Drake: With J.K. Dobbins‘ health and workload up in the air, it isn’t easy to trust any of these rushers in your Week 1 lineup. Only three times last year did a Ravens’ running back garner more than 50% of the backfield rushing share in a game, so starting any of these backs with conviction is a fool’s errand. You’re whispering lies to yourself that are difficult to believe.

If you’re forced to plug one in your flex, I get it in deeper leagues. If the Jets are close to as bad against the run this year, there is upside here. Last year New York allowed the fourth-most rushing yards while also ranking 25th in explosive run rate allowed.

Update: Start J.K. Dobbins at your own risk. He’s been listed as questionable after limited practices all week.

Tight Ends

Notes

Tyler Conklin and C.J. Uzomah: If you’re searching for a deep league streaming option Tyler Conklin fits the bill. In Week 3 of the preseason, he looked like the majority leader in the Jets’ tight end room. He played 95.2% of the snaps with Joe Flacco while besting C.J. Uzomah (52.4% snaps) in routes run (nine vs. six). Conklin was the 17th-highest graded tight end last season per PFF (minimum 20 targets) while ranking 16th in YAC per reception and fifth in missed tackles forced. Baltimore offers an advantageous matchup as they were top-four in receptions (second), receiving yards (third), and fantasy points per game (fourth) last season.

Evan Engram: While the matchup is nice for Evan Engram, I am skeptical that he has a standout game here. Engram is positioned as a possible bounceback candidate on opportunity alone this season, but he was among the worst tight ends in the NFL last year. Among tight ends with at least 20 targets, he had the seventh-lowest PFF receiving grade and fifth-lowest yards per route run. Washington was 14th in fantasy points per game, and receptions allowed to tight ends while also bleeding out the ninth-most receiving yards to the position.

Logan Thomas: Logan Thomas isn’t sure if he will be suiting up in Week 1. That’s enough to take him out of consideration for our lineups. Even if he does give it a go, it could be in a limited capacity against a team that held tight ends to the ninth-fewest receiving touchdowns and 14th-fewest fantasy points per game last year.

David Njoku: David Njoku‘s a player I’ve been championing all off-season, but this isn’t the matchup to look to start him. Njoku’s athleticism and yards after the catch (fifth in YAC per reception last year, minimum 20 targets) ability will be muted this week. The Panthers were ninth in DVOA against the position last year. They allowed the fewest yards after the catch in the NFL in 2021.

Mo Alie-Cox: Mo Alie-Cox could see his route per dropback rate climb this year. Last season he sat at 42.9%, but with Jack Doyle gone and only Kylen Granson and Jelani Woods behind him, he could enter full-timer status. Alie-Cox was efficient when featured last year, ranking top 20 in yards per route run, QBR when targeted, and fantasy points per route and target. The Texans offer a match-up that could lead to a top 12 week. Last year they were 12th in receiving yards, sixth in receiving touchdowns, and fifth in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends.

Brevin Jordan: A similar scenario is laid before Brevin Jordan‘s feet in Week 1. He could assume the full-time role in Houston this season after playing well in a limited capacity last season. In his only game with 60% or higher snaps, he was the TE12. When he did play, he garnered targets at a high rate, ranking 11th in target per route run rate. The Colts offer a juicy runway to begin his second season. Last year they were eighth in receiving yards and fantasy points per game and sixth in receiving touchdowns (tied) allowed to tight ends. Jordan is in the Week 1 tight-end streamer conversation or a solid target if you play in two tight-end formats.

Defense & Special Teams

Kickers