The NFL is back! But so are starting-lineup headaches for fantasy football managers. Most of your Week 1 start/sit decisions will be no-brainers, but there are bound to be some tough calls — especially since we haven’t started accumulating regular-season data to help guide us.

With a new season on our doorstep, our featured analysts name some potential Week 1 sleepers and underachievers.

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team, and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

Q. Which player outside of the top 100 in the FantasyPros flex rankings is a good sleeper start and why do you think he has upside this week?

George Pickens (WR – PIT)
“General rule of thumb: take the wide receivers who will line up against Bengals CB Eli Apple. That is potentially the case this weekend for Steelers WR George Pickens, who could begin his NFL career by starting in place of the currently recovering Diontae Johnson (who has hinted that he may not be able to go for Week 1). Pickens has long been my pick as the most talented receiver in this year’s draft class, even though he was drafted tens of picks behind WR1 Drake London. I believe his ball skills will translate extremely favorably to the NFL and he will be able to outmuscle Apple, who was last seen getting burned for the game-winning touchdown in last year’s Super Bowl by Cooper Kupp.”
– Sam Wagman (Footballguys)

Pat Freiermuth (TE – PIT)
“Pat Freiermuth is a tight end I’m down on for the season. However, he has a great Week 1 matchup against the Bengals. Last year the Bengals gave up the most fantasy points to tight ends, surrendering 14.3 PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, Freiermuth scored at least 11 PPR fantasy points in both matchups against Cincinnati last season. While the Bengals improved their defense in the offseason, Freiermuth should find the end zone in this matchup.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)

Jahan Dotson (WR – WAS)
“Jahan Dotson of the Commanders is a great week 1 sleeper because there are really only three target options: Terry McLaurin, Dotson and Logan Thomas. Dotson is very talented, and with so few options, he’s bound to be targeted 6-10 times. Plus, head coach Ron Rivera is apparently not happy with Antonio Gibson, possibly for fumbling issues, but he’s their only good option at RB while Brian Robinson recovers. So, the Commanders are likely to throw the ball more than run it. Also, they are likely to play catchup with the Jaguars, who are an improved team (I hope). For all of these reasons, I consider Dotson a great Week 1 sleeper. ”
– Tal Malachovsky (The Fantasy Scout)

Sammy Watkins (WR – GB)
“Sammy Watkins: The Packers’ receiver room is banged up, and Watkins could find himself finishing Week 1 as Green Bay’s target leader on offense. ”
– Mason Riney (IDP Army)

Noah Brown (WR – DAL)
“Noah Brown. With Michael Gallup still working his way back from the ACL tear and likely out for Week 1, there will be a void in the passing attack for the Cowboys in a perceived shootout (O/U 50.5). While many are hoping for rookie Jalen Tolbert to assume the role of WR2 on the team, it’s been Noah Brown who has been garnering praise from Dak Prescott and the coaches in the preseason. If you are in a pinch and needing a spot starter due to injury, Brown could surprise and find the end zone in Week 1 for the Cowboys. ”
– Brandon Murchison (RotoBaller)

“Noah Brown is a good start this week. The SNF matchup against the Bucs is likely to be a shootout. With Michael Gallup out and Jalen Tolbert not having a lot of time with Dak Prescott, it looks likely that Brown is in line for some work in Week One. When asked about the trust and relationship he has with Noah Brown, Prescott said, “It’s only gotten greater and greater. You want to find a guy who’s the epitome of being a professional – it’s Noah Brown on and off the field.” While Brown isn’t a long-term play, he looks like a solid flex play Week One”
– Adam Murfet (5 Yard Rush)

A.J. Green (WR – ARI)
“How about A.J. Green? The 34-year-old receiver is going to play a lot of snaps while DeAndre Hopkins serves a six-game suspension, and Green had a nice bounce-back year in 2021, averaging an impressive 9.2 yards per target. Chiefs-Cardinals has a 54-point Vegas total, the highest of any Week 1 game, so we’re expecting fireworks. Green is likely to get a lot of face time with rookie CB Trent McDuffie. I like the veteran in that matchup.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)

Isaiah McKenzie (WR – BUF)
“Rams Slot CB Troy Hill is 32 years old and allowed the second-highest passer rating when targeted in the slot last season (130.1). Bills starting slot WR Isaiah McKenzie should be set up super well as an exciting FLEX option, especially considering he likely won’t draw much attention from Jalen Ramsey or the Rams defense in general with so many other options to be concerned about. In fact, the last time the Bills faced the Rams (Week 3 of the 2020 season), Cole Beasley had a solid game as the WR30 on the week, finishing with six catches for 100 receiving yards. McKenzie also flashed big-time upside in his solo spot start for Buffalo in Week 16 versus the Patriots, catching 11 of 12 targets for 125 receiving yards and one touchdown. ”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)

Q. Which player inside the top 40 in the FantasyPros flex rankings is likely to disappoint fantasy managers this week?

David Montgomery (RB – CHI)
“David Montgomery could struggle this week against the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers had one of the best run defenses in the NFL last season and return most of their starters for this season as well. Add in that Montgomery has faced questions this offseason about playing time and has been practicing on special teams, and the rise of Khalil Herbert‘s status, and you could have a recipe for disaster with Monty.”
– Sam Wagman (Footballguys)

“David Montgomery has had quite the tumultuous offseason, drawing scrutiny on his effectiveness in the Bears’ offense in 2022. His season may not get off to the greatest start with a stiff test against a 49ers defense that was among the league’s best in points allowed to the position in 2021 (14.6 FPPG allowed). With Justin Fields and the Bears passing attack showing inconsistent play throughout the offseason, look for the 49ers to focus on stopping Montgomery early and often. Montgomery was drafted as an RB2 in many formats, and I do not expect for him to return that kind of production to begin his 2022 season. ”
– Brandon Murchison (RotoBaller)

Saquon Barkley (RB – NYG)
“While Saquon Barkley has high expectations this season, his Week 1 matchup is awful. The Titans were one of the best teams stopping the run last season, giving up the second-fewest rushing yards to running backs. Furthermore, they gave up the second-fewest PPR fantasy points per game (15.2) and the fourth-fewest total touchdowns (eight) to the position. Maybe Barkley can salvage his fantasy outing with a garbage-time touchdown or a high catch performance. However, he won’t provide top-12 numbers this week.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)

A.J. Dillon (RB – GB)
“A.J. Dillon will disappoint fantasy managers in Week 1. The Packers are going to try to manage the clock and run as much as possible, but Aaron Jones is the primary bell-cow back. Also, this slow style is not conducive to scoring touchdowns or fantasy points, especially not for the secondary running back. Alternatively, If the Vikings come out hot, which is how I see it playing out, it will force the Packers to throw the ball more. I would see how the Packers use Dillon before putting him in my lineup. ”
– Tal Malachovsky (The Fantasy Scout)

Ezekiel Elliott (RB – DAL)
“Ezekiel Elliott: In last year’s opening contest against Tampa Bay, Elliott finished with 11 rushes and 33 yards. I don’t expect much of a difference in the 2022 season opener.”
– Mason Riney (IDP Army)

“Ezekiel Elliott. He faces the Buccaneers, and it’s hard to run on Tampa Bay. The Bucs allowed the fewest rushing attempts and the fewest rushing yards in the league last year. Opponents sometimes don’t even bother trying to establish the run against DT Vita Vea, LB Lavonte David & Co. When the Cowboys faced the Buccaneers in the 2021 opener, Elliott played 70 offensive snaps but totaled only 39 yards from scrimmage. It’s not hard to imagine another frustrating game for Elliott and his stakeholders in this year’s opener.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)

“Ezekiel Elliott totaled just 33 rushing yards on 11 carries (4.9 fantasy points) versus a stout Tampa Bay Buccaneers run defense last season, and I’m afraid Week 1 of 2022 will bring similar results. The Bucs’ defensive front is still stacked with the additions of Akiem Hicks and Logan Hall, and Dallas’ offensive line has just gotten worse since last season. With Tony Pollard likely to be the more involved RB as a receiver, Zeke falls into the TD-or-bust category amid a brutal matchup. Tampa Bay allowed the third-lowest TD conversion rate on rushes inside the 5-yard line last season. ”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)

Javonte Williams (RB – DEN)
“I am worried about Javonte Williams this week. He is in a complete job share, as it stands right now, with Melvin Gordon. And, while the game script would dictate that there could be enough work for both Williams and Gordon this week, Russell Wilson will want to not only make a statement against his own team on primetime Monday Night Football, but he will also want the reps. There is nothing like game reps to help a quarterback build relationships with his receivers. Therefore, expect Williams to finish outside the top 50 this week. That is well short of the 18th rank he currently is this week in the FantasyPros flex rankings.”
– Adam Murfet (5 Yard Rush)

Thanks to the experts for sharing their advice! For more of their insight, be sure to follow each pundit on Twitter (click their names above) and visit their respective sites.

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If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.