Welcome to The Heat Index for 2022!
For those unfamiliar with the column, every Tuesday during the NFL season, we dig into the players whose performances the prior week jumped out to us the most. Along with their stats (half-point PPR scoring) and positional rank for the week, we’ll rank their rest-of-season prospects on a scale of ?-to-?????.
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Quarterback
Carson Wentz (QB – WAS)
Stat-line: 27 of 41 passing for 313 yards with four TDs and two INTs; 12 yards rushing
QB Rank: 3
Analysis: The Commanders probably don’t want Carson Wentz throwing the ball 41 times very often, but it worked for them Sunday. Wentz’s performance was reminiscent of last season with the Colts when he would look good at times but then produced some head-scratching interceptions. Four TDs significantly contributed to his fantasy success in Week 1, which probably won’t happen very often.
Heat Index: ??
Wide Receivers
Devin Duvernay (WR – BAL)
Stat-line: Four receptions off four targets for 54 yards and two TDs.
WR Rank: 9
Analysis: From a positive standpoint, Devin Duvernay should be the WR2 in the Ravens’ offense opposite Rashod Bateman and ranked third in snaps among their pass-catchers Sunday. On the other hand, he only played four more snaps than Demarcus Robinson and Isaiah Likely, and his two TDs are what drove his fantasy relevance. Duvernay has upside in this offense, but it feels like he is destined to boom-or-bust this season. He’s worth a speculative add for depth but probably won’t deliver as anything more than a bye-week fill-in.
Heat Index: ???
Robbie Anderson (WR – CAR)
Stat-line: Five receptions off eight targets for 102 yards and a TD.
WR Rank: 10
Analysis: After a breakout 2020 season, Robbie Anderson regressed to the point in 2021 where he wasn’t drafted in most leagues this year. Lo and behold, Anderson put up his best receiving day in almost two years on Sunday. Could it be that the change in QB from Sam Darnold to Baker Mayfield was the difference? Perhaps. It may not be coincident that Anderson’s best season came when Darnold wasn’t his quarterback. It’s only one game, so it’s a bit premature to assume Anderson will return to his 2020 form. Plus, much of his production came on one 75-yard TD. But it’s encouraging and makes Anderson, at worst, someone to keep an eye on.
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Running Backs
Cordarrelle Patterson (RB – ATL)
Stat-line: 22 carries for 120 yards and a TD; three receptions off five targets for 16 yards
RB Rank: 4
Analysis: After Cordarrelle Patterson’s breakout 2021, this week’s performance shouldn’t be a surprise. It is, though, based on how he delivered the production. Patterson’s high in rushing attempts last season was 16, so 22 this week was certainly unexpected. The early injury to Damien Williams and the Falcons’ failed attempt to protect their lead in the second half significantly contributed to Patterson’s workload and may not be repeatable. However, he was very efficient, averaging 5.5 yards per carry, and it’s clear that Arthur Smith trusts him. Patterson may not be an RB1 again this year, but it certainly looks like you can trust him in your starting lineup.
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James Robinson (RB – JAC)
Stat-line: 11 carries for 66 yards and a TD; one reception off two targets for three yards and a TD
RB Rank: 8
Analysis: After tearing his Achilles tendon last December, it was a minor miracle for James Robinson to be active in Week 1. Despite his track record, fantasy managers were hesitant to draft him given the injury and the return of Travis Etienne Jr., who missed all of 2021 due to a Lisfranc injury. But Robinson once again silenced his critics, accumulating twice as many touches as Etienne and producing six yards per carry. Robinson won’t score two TDs weekly, but the Jaguars’ backfield looks like it will be a timeshare, making him an excellent value to those who drafted him late and a prime waiver wire option for this week.
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Tight Ends
O.J. Howard (TE – HOU)
Stat-line: Two receptions off two targets for 38 yards and two TDs
TE Rank: 2
Analysis: O.J. Howard only played 12 snaps while the other Texans’ tight ends, Pharaoh Brown and Brevin Jordan, played 46 and 42, respectively. However, keep in mind that Howard just got to Houston after being cut by the Bills two weeks ago. Both his TDs came fairly far from the endzone – 16 yards and 22 yards – which shows his playmaking ability. Howard has an opportunity to be a red zone monster for this team. He’ll likely lack consistency and have his share of dud weeks, but almost every tight end is TD-dependent. It’s unlikely he’ll break out, but he’s worth consideration in two TE leagues and as an injury or bye-week replacement.
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