High-end fantasy football performances and weekly finishes are fueled by high numbers of routes run and high-value targets and touches. The majority of top scorers from Week 3 saw healthy doses of red-zone targets, air yards, deep targets and goal-line carries.
Targeting players who run a high percentage of routes is also a good approach for identifying breakout candidates, beatable player props, DFS targets and players to prioritize in the Week 4 fantasy football rankings and rest of season rankings.
This weekly report will look at recent rates of routes run per dropback along with players who commanded a high rate of high-value opportunities compared to larger samples to find sleeper running backs, wide receivers and tight ends who are garnering more or fewer opportunities in the passing game heading into Week 4 and for the remainder of the 2022 season.
- Week 4 Waiver Wire Advice
- Fantasy Trade Advice: Buy & Sell
- Week 4 Waiver Wire Rankings
- Fantasy Football Injury Analysis
Check out the rest of our weekly fantasy football advice 
WIDE RECEIVERS
| Player | Routes | % of routes run per dropback | Targets | Target Share | Target Rate Per Route Run |
| Diontae Johnson | 33 | 100% | 11 | 34% | 33% |
| DeVante Parker | 40 | 100% | 10 | 31% | 25% |
| Ja’Marr Chase | 39 | 100% | 10 | 28% | 26% |
| D.J. Moore | 29 | 100% | 6 | 25% | 21% |
| Cooper Kupp | 27 | 100% | 6 | 24% | 22% |
| Davante Adams | 47 | 100% | 10 | 24% | 21% |
| Chase Claypool | 33 | 100% | 6 | 19% | 18% |
| Justin Jefferson | 42 | 100% | 6 | 16% | 14% |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | 42 | 98% | 9 | 25% | 21% |
| Christian Kirk | 39 | 98% | 9 | 24% | 23% |
| Amari Cooper | 32 | 97% | 11 | 35% | 34% |
| Brandin Cooks | 32 | 97% | 7 | 23% | 22% |
| Treylon Burks | 27 | 96% | 2 | 8% | 7% |
| Darnell Mooney | 24 | 96% | 6 | 38% | 25% |
| Gabriel Davis | 70 | 96% | 6 | 11% | 9% |
| Mack Hollins | 45 | 96% | 10 | 24% | 22% |
| DK Metcalf | 44 | 96% | 12 | 28% | 27% |
| Adam Thielen | 40 | 95% | 8 | 22% | 20% |
| Marquise Brown | 59 | 95% | 17 | 31% | 29% |
| Elijah Moore | 53 | 95% | 10 | 21% | 19% |
| Josh Palmer | 44 | 94% | 9 | 22% | 20% |
| Chris Olave | 39 | 93% | 13 | 33% | 33% |
| DeVonta Smith | 38 | 93% | 12 | 35% | 32% |
| A.J. Brown | 38 | 93% | 10 | 29% | 26% |
| Allen Robinson II | 25 | 93% | 5 | 20% | 20% |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 23 | 92% | 2 | 13% | 9% |
| Tyreek Hill | 20 | 91% | 4 | 20% | 20% |
| D.J. Chark Jr. | 39 | 91% | 6 | 16% | 15% |
| Tee Higgins | 35 | 90% | 7 | 19% | 20% |
| Mike Williams | 42 | 89% | 6 | 15% | 14% |
| Robert Woods | 25 | 89% | 9 | 35% | 36% |
| Terry McLaurin | 49 | 89% | 9 | 21% | 18% |
| Allen Lazard | 32 | 89% | 6 | 23% | 19% |
| Parris Campbell | 38 | 88% | 2 | 6% | 5% |
| George Pickens | 29 | 88% | 7 | 22% | 24% |
| Corey Davis | 49 | 88% | 5 | 10% | 10% |
| Jahan Dotson | 48 | 87% | 8 | 19% | 17% |
| Robbie Anderson | 25 | 86% | 4 | 17% | 16% |
| Greg Dortch | 53 | 85% | 10 | 18% | 19% |
| Curtis Samuel | 47 | 85% | 10 | 24% | 21% |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 28 | 85% | 3 | 10% | 11% |
| Tyler Lockett | 39 | 85% | 11 | 26% | 28% |
| Russell Gage | 38 | 84% | 13 | 33% | 34% |
| Scotty Miller | 38 | 84% | 5 | 13% | 13% |
| Josh Reynolds | 36 | 84% | 10 | 27% | 28% |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 35 | 83% | 7 | 21% | 20% |
| Marvin Jones Jr. | 33 | 83% | 7 | 18% | 21% |
| Tyler Boyd | 32 | 82% | 6 | 17% | 19% |
| Zay Jones | 32 | 80% | 11 | 29% | 34% |
| Rashod Bateman | 27 | 79% | 4 | 15% | 15% |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 33 | 79% | 8 | 24% | 24% |
| K.J. Osborn | 33 | 79% | 8 | 22% | 24% |
Gabriel Davis’ role in the Bill offense is top-notch. He ran a route on 96% of dropbacks, but the targets weren’t there. Just six targets, which ranked fourth on the team. But you should buy the dip. Let DeVonta Smith‘s high-end route participation in a high-powered offense be a reminder that these types of players don’t stay quiet for very long even if they have a bad game.
Bateman has been extraordinarily efficient through the first two weeks of the season, making big plays despite not having an every-down role on offense. The production was not sustainable based on how much he was playing and it finally caught up with him in Week 3.
He played 62% of the snaps – but didn’t score and saw just four targets. But he was still super efficient – two catches for 59 yards. And his 79% route participation was actually an increase from Weeks 1-2 (72%). Anytime you can buy low on a WR attached to Lamar Jackson, you do it very willingly.
Bateman currently ranks third in the NFL in yards per route run (3.11) among WRs with at least 15 targets.
Garrett Wilson seems to get banged up in every game he plays, but that doesn’t stop him from producing. He missed a few drives after taking a big shot in Week 3 – 63% snap share – but still finished with 10 targets as Joe Flacco threw the ball 52 times.
There’s no denying that Wilson (23% target share) has been Flacco’s guy over the past three weeks, despite not running a full share of routes. He’s locked up a full-time role on offense which should elevate any concern that a change at QB will do to the target pecking order.
But if we are trying to capitalize on Wilson’s ascend the past few weeks, I wouldn’t shy away from putting him on the trade block hoping for a king’s ransom in return. Because there’s no guarantee that even as good as Wilson has shown that he is… Zach Wilson will target him at the same rate as Flacco.
There’s also a chance that the Jets try to be more run-heavy without a DGAF quarterback under center.
But if anything, you should definitely buy low on Elijah Moore who is still operating as the No. 1 WR on the Jets from a usage standpoint – 94% snap share in Week 3 – and has some prior built-in chemistry with his second-year QB. A QB switch could be the kickstart the talented second-year WR needs.
Treylon Burks posted just one catch in the red zone on two targets in Week 3. But his usage was dynamite, as the rookie WR ran a route on 96% of dropbacks leading the Titans. Now that he finally has a full-time role on offense, I am confident the fantasy production will follow. Buy low.
I’m not a believer that Robert Woods‘ 35% target share will sustain into next week.
The once-crowned cardio king from Week 1, Mack Hollins, continues to ball out.
Without Hunter Renfrow in Week 3…he tied Davante Adams with a team-leading 10 targets (24% target share). Just goes to show that eventually when a player is running a route on 95% of dropbacks, they will produce at some point. Especially if other targets in the offense miss time.
Jerry Jeudy returned to the lineup, but that had little to no impact on Courtland Sutton’s status as the alpha in the Broncos passing game. Sutton commanded a 31% target share (10 targets) catching 8 balls for 97 yards.
Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk tied for a team-high 8 targets (28% target share) in Week 3 with Jimmy Garoppolo under center. Samuel also added five carries for 6 yards. Still, Aiyuk led the SF WRs in snaps. And over the last two weeks, Aiyuk has averaged north of a 30% target share. Buy-low candidate.
With all the injuries to the Packers WRs rookie WR Romeo Doubs led Green Bay in targets (8) and ranked second in snap share (89%) behind only Allen Lazard in Week 3. Although his route participation (94%) ranked first on the team. The head coach talked up Doubs having a larger role in this contest and he delivered with 73 receiving yards and one touchdown. Considering the current state of this receiving corps, Doubs is a massive buy with a starting role in hand moving forward now that Sammy Watkins is on IR.
Russell Gage operated as the No. 1 receiver for the Bucs in Week 3: 12 catches for 87 yards on 13 targets. Nobody else saw more than six targets. But don’t be overly bullish on Gage in the long-term with Mike Evans returning in Week 4 and Chris Godwin eventually making a return at some point this season. Sell high.
Of course, the week I decide to bury DK Metcalf on the FantasyPros Football Podcast, he buries me with five catches for 64 yards and 1 TD. But Metcalf still only out-targeted Tyler Lockett by one (12 vs 11) and is still second on the team in targets this season. Weeks, where both Lockett and Metcalf hit, are going too far and few between with Geno Smith at QB because they won’t play the Falcons every week. Sell high on Metcalf’s name brand. Again, it took 12 targets and Metcalf still couldn’t crack 65 receiving yards…
Marquise Brown commanded 17 targets (31% target share) for 14 catches and 140 yards in Week 3 on a 95% snap share. You need to keep playing him as long as DeAndre Hopkins is suspended. But his Week 3 boom does present a potentially sell-high opportunity for those looking for immediate WR production for the next few weeks.
Not surprised by Allen Robinson flaming out with 2 catches for 23 yards on 5 targets in Week 3.
He was a sell high last week based on his extremely low target rate per route run after two weeks.
CeeDee Lamb posted his third consecutive game with at least 11 targets in Week 3, commanding 12 targets on a whopping 40% target share for eight catches and 87 receiving yards (95% snap share). The third-year wideout also earned 51% of this team’s air yards from backup QB Cooper Rush.
Since the start of the year, Lamb owns a 35% target share but still has fewer receiving yards than Noah Brown despite 13 fewer targets.
HIGH-VALUE TARGETS:
RED-ZONE TARGETS, AIR YARDS AND DEEP TARGETS
| Player | Air Yards | Air Yards Share | Deep Catches | Deep Targets | Red-Zone Targets | Red-Zone TDs |
| Amari Cooper | 132 | 64% | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Allen Lazard | 92 | 61% | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 103 | 58% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 212 | 54% | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 99 | 54% | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 205 | 53% | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| Josh Reynolds | 172 | 49% | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones Jr. | 91 | 48% | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Alec Pierce | 71 | 47% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 104 | 46% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 101 | 46% | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 114 | 44% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Terry McLaurin | 147 | 44% | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Robbie Anderson | 69 | 44% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja’Marr Chase | 124 | 44% | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Marquise Brown | 140 | 42% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| K.J. Osborn | 130 | 42% | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 57 | 40% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 113 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 186 | 40% | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 150 | 38% | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| Diontae Johnson | 146 | 37% | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 137 | 37% | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| D.J. Moore | 56 | 36% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Chris Olave | 164 | 35% | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Tee Higgins | 100 | 35% | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 77 | 34% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 88 | 34% | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 130 | 34% | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| D.J. Chark Jr. | 117 | 34% | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 93 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 109 | 31% | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Tyler Lockett | 123 | 31% | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 101 | 30% | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 57 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Brandin Cooks | 67 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Drake London | 90 | 29% | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Adam Thielen | 88 | 28% | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Speaking of high target shares, Amari Cooper has been commanding a boatload of looks in the Browns offense. Since Week 2, he’s earned a 36% target share (21 targets) and a whopping 66% air yards share. His Week 3 air yards share led all WRs.
Rookie David Bell‘s playing time continues to increase – 56% snap share in Week 3 – as the clear WR3 in Cleveland’s offense over Anthony Schwartz.
Diontae Johnson owns a 33% target share through the first 3 weeks of the season. No other Steelers WR has higher than an 18% target share (Chase Claypool). George Pickens saw his target share boost to 22% in Week 3, after Mitchell Trubisky vowed to get him more involved. Although it came on his lowest snap share (76%) of the season. His target increase came at the expense of TE Pat Freiermuth (13% target share).
Shepard led the Giants in air yards share (46%) and target share (31%, 10 targets) on Monday night while playing 81% of the team’s snaps. The Giants slot receiver was the only reliable option in Big Blue’s passing game, but he will miss the rest of the season with a knee injury.
He was carted off the field after the team’s final offensive snap in Monday night’s loss to the Cowboys.
With him out, Kadarius Toney would be the Giants WR to target off the waiver wire, even though he missed Week 3 with his own injury. He easily has the most upside among this group of pass-catchers.
Richie James Jr. would be next in line for an increased role. He currently ranks second on the Giants in every receiving category behind Shepard. He also played the second-most snaps (74%) in Week 3.
TOP TAKEAWAYS
- Allen Lazard played 90% of the snaps in Week 3, but still only commanded 6 targets. It’s been back-to-back weeks with a meh target share for Lazard (23%,12%) despite full-time usage; although his fantasy production has remained steady due to his two TD scores. Perfect time to sell a player that is not being targeted at a high rate versus his teammates.
- Ja’Marr Chase with a team-high 29% target share and he also ran a route on 100% of dropbacks. One of just 8 WRs to do so in Week 3. Tee Higgins has been ballin’ out the past two weeks, but I don’t think Chase’s production will trail him for much longer.
- The Same sentiment can be made for Justin Jefferson, who also ran a route on 100% of dropbacks in Week 3. These guys are too talented and on the field too much to not be posting monster games.
- Buy low on Elijah Moore. He’s still operating as the No. 1 WR from a usage standpoint and the QB swap back to Zach Wilson could favor him in the target pecking order.
- Sell high on Terry McLaurin. Through three weeks, Curtis Samuel is dominating the target share (24%). TMC is getting by on his team-leading air yards share, but that exact type of production is going to make him extremely volatile. Especially attached to quarterback Carson Wentz.
- D.J. Moore has run a route on 100% of Baker Mayfield‘s dropbacks this season, but ranks outside the top-40 in routes run. He has 88 yards and seven catches on 18 targets (six per game). Sooner or later, Moore is going to produce but his fantasy ceiling remains low in a Panthers offense that ranks second-to-last in plays per game (54.3).
- WRs that saw multiple red-zone targets that did not score in Week 3 include Allen Robinson (3), Keelan Cole (2) and Stefon Diggs (2).
- Darnell Mooney led all WRs in Week 3 with a 38% target share. It still didn’t matter and won’t matter till the Bears extend an effort to throw more.
- WRs that saw multiple deep targets that failed to haul them include: Elijah Moore, Diontae Johnson, Mike Williams, Cooper Kupp, Ja’Marr Chase, Jahan Dotson and Jamison Crowder
- Elijah Moore finished with 186 air yards in Week 3 -the 3rd-highest mark on the week. Buy low.
RUNNING BACKS
| Player | Routes | % of routes run per dropback | Targets | Target Share | Target Rate Per Route Run |
| Leonard Fournette | 32 | 71% | 6 | 15% | 19% |
| Christian McCaffrey | 19 | 66% | 4 | 17% | 21% |
| Joe Mixon | 25 | 64% | 7 | 19% | 28% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 25 | 63% | 5 | 16% | 20% |
| Alvin Kamara | 26 | 62% | 7 | 18% | 27% |
| Aaron Jones | 22 | 61% | 4 | 15% | 18% |
| Jonathan Taylor | 25 | 58% | 5 | 14% | 20% |
| Jeff Wilson Jr. | 19 | 58% | 3 | 10% | 16% |
| Josh Jacobs | 27 | 57% | 6 | 14% | 22% |
| Khalil Herbert | 14 | 56% | 2 | 13% | 14% |
| Darrell Henderson | 15 | 56% | 1 | 4% | 7% |
| J.D. McKissic | 30 | 55% | 9 | 21% | 30% |
| Rashaad Penny | 25 | 54% | 1 | 2% | 4% |
| Devin Singletary | 39 | 53% | 11 | 19% | 28% |
| Austin Ekeler | 25 | 53% | 8 | 20% | 32% |
| James Robinson | 21 | 53% | 3 | 8% | 14% |
| Kareem Hunt | 17 | 52% | 4 | 13% | 24% |
| D’Andre Swift | 22 | 51% | 4 | 11% | 18% |
| Nyheim Hines | 22 | 51% | 6 | 17% | 27% |
| Raheem Mostert | 11 | 50% | 2 | 10% | 18% |
| Najee Harris | 16 | 48% | 3 | 9% | 19% |
| Nick Chubb | 16 | 48% | 1 | 3% | 6% |
| Breece Hall | 27 | 48% | 11 | 23% | 41% |
| Jerick McKinnon | 20 | 48% | 1 | 3% | 5% |
| Derrick Henry | 13 | 46% | 6 | 23% | 46% |
| Miles Sanders | 19 | 46% | 1 | 3% | 5% |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 12 | 46% | 1 | 5% | 8% |
| Rex Burkhead | 15 | 45% | 5 | 16% | 33% |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 15 | 45% | 1 | 3% | 7% |
| J.K. Dobbins | 14 | 41% | 2 | 7% | 14% |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 17 | 40% | 5 | 15% | 29% |
| Brandon Bolden | 19 | 40% | 2 | 5% | 11% |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 16 | 39% | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| A.J. Dillon | 14 | 39% | 3 | 12% | 21% |
| Chase Edmonds | 8 | 36% | 1 | 5% | 13% |
| Patrick Ricard | 12 | 35% | 1 | 4% | 8% |
| Travis Etienne | 14 | 35% | 3 | 8% | 21% |
| Michael Carter | 19 | 34% | 2 | 4% | 11% |
| James Conner | 21 | 34% | 5 | 9% | 24% |
| Dalvin Cook | 14 | 33% | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Javonte Williams | 13 | 33% | 5 | 16% | 38% |
| Melvin Gordon III | 13 | 33% | 5 | 16% | 38% |
| Tyler Allgeier | 8 | 31% | 1 | 5% | 13% |
| Justice Hill | 10 | 29% | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Damien Harris | 11 | 28% | 3 | 9% | 27% |
| Mike Boone | 11 | 28% | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Dameon Pierce | 9 | 27% | 2 | 6% | 22% |
| Antonio Gibson | 15 | 27% | 1 | 2% | 7% |
| Alexander Mattison | 11 | 26% | 1 | 3% | 9% |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 7 | 25% | 1 | 4% | 14% |
| Trestan Ebner | 6 | 24% | 1 | 6% | 17% |
| Alec Ingold | 5 | 23% | 1 | 5% | 20% |
| Eno Benjamin | 13 | 21% | 4 | 7% | 31% |
| Jamaal Williams | 8 | 19% | 2 | 5% | 25% |
| DeeJay Dallas | 8 | 17% | 2 | 5% | 25% |
| Mark Ingram | 7 | 17% | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Reggie Gilliam | 12 | 16% | 3 | 5% | 25% |
| Darrel Williams | 10 | 16% | 1 | 2% | 10% |
| David Montgomery | 4 | 16% | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Samaje Perine | 6 | 15% | 2 | 6% | 33% |
| Joshua Kelley | 7 | 15% | 2 | 5% | 29% |
| Cam Akers | 4 | 15% | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Sony Michel | 6 | 13% | 2 | 5% | 33% |
| Jaylen Warren | 4 | 12% | 1 | 3% | 25% |
| C.J. Ham | 5 | 12% | 3 | 8% | 60% |
| Craig Reynolds | 5 | 12% | 1 | 3% | 20% |
| Boston Scott | 4 | 10% | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| James Cook | 7 | 10% | 5 | 9% | 71% |
| Zack Moss | 7 | 10% | 1 | 2% | 14% |
Devin Singletary tied Stefon Diggs with a team-leading…11 TARGETS in Week 3 (19% target share). Clearly, there is a much bigger emphasis on getting these Bills RBs involved as pass catchers with James Cook and Zack Moss combining for 6 more targets.
Even so, Singletary operated as the RB1 overall with 18 overall touches and 20 opportunities on a 73% snap share. Moss/Cook combined for 10.
David Montgomery left Week 3 with an injury, opening the door for one of my favorite RBs, Khalil Herbert, to absolutely smash. The second-year RB rushed for 157 yards on 20 carries with two TDs. Also added two catches for 12 yards, while running a route on 56% of dropbacks.
Including Week 3, Herbert has never rushed for fewer than 75 yards in a game he has played at least 50% of the snaps. His average output in those games is just over 100 rushing yards per game (5-game sample size). Montgomery has rushed for 75 yards-plus 5 times since the start of 2021.
Worth all the waiver wire money in the world if Monty’s injury is severe. Listed as day-to-day, which suggests he will likely miss at least 1 week of action.
For the second straight week, Rhamondre Stevenson (62%) dominated the snap and receiving usage over Damien Harris.
He hit a season-high 16 touches in Week 3, going over 100 yards from scrimmage with a touchdown. The second-year back averaged 6.1 yards per carry to go along with 5 targets and four catches for 28 yards. Harris still scored a red-zone TD. But totaled fewer targets (3) and carries (11). Also was much less efficient (3.7 yards per carry).
The time is now to sell the TD-dependent Harris, who will feel the biggest impact in a less efficient Patriots offense without Mac Jones.
Josh Jacobs posted a top-10 opportunity share in Week 3 despite coming into the game very questionable with an illness. But aside from seeing work as a ball carrier, Jacobs finally got used more as a receiver – 6 targets: 5 catches for 31 yards. He ran a route on 56% of Derek Carr‘s dropbacks, 15% more than his Weeks 1-2 average.
RB Opportunity Share | Week 3
Goal-line carries (Any carry inside the 10-yard line)
| Player | Carries | Touches | Opportunities | Goal-Line Carries | Goal-line TDs | Overall Opportunity Share |
| Leonard Fournette | 12 | 17 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 100% |
| Christian McCaffrey | 25 | 27 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 91% |
| Derrick Henry | 20 | 25 | 26 | 1 | 1 | 90% |
| Jeff Wilson Jr. | 12 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 88% |
| Alvin Kamara | 15 | 17 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 81% |
| Josh Jacobs | 13 | 18 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 79% |
| Najee Harris | 15 | 18 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 78% |
| Miles Sanders | 15 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 76% |
| Jonathan Taylor | 21 | 24 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 74% |
| Dameon Pierce | 20 | 22 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 73% |
| Cam Akers | 12 | 12 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 71% |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 17 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 69% |
| Khalil Herbert | 20 | 22 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 67% |
| James Conner | 13 | 16 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 62% |
| Joe Mixon | 12 | 15 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 61% |
| Dalvin Cook | 17 | 17 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 61% |
| Nick Chubb | 23 | 23 | 24 | 1 | 1 | 60% |
| Breece Hall | 8 | 14 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 59% |
| Devin Singletary | 9 | 18 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 59% |
| J.K. Dobbins | 7 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 56% |
| James Robinson | 17 | 20 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 56% |
| Rashaad Penny | 14 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 56% |
| Jamaal Williams | 20 | 22 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 55% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 12 | 16 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 55% |
| Austin Ekeler | 4 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 55% |
| Javonte Williams | 15 | 18 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 54% |
| Raheem Mostert | 8 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 53% |
| Antonio Gibson | 12 | 13 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 52% |
| Aaron Jones | 12 | 15 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 52% |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 7 | 12 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 50% |
| A.J. Dillon | 12 | 14 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 48% |
| J.D. McKissic | 3 | 9 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 48% |
| Melvin Gordon III | 12 | 18 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 46% |
| Damien Harris | 11 | 13 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 45% |
| Travis Etienne | 13 | 16 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 44% |
| Michael Carter | 11 | 12 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 41% |
| Kareem Hunt | 12 | 15 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 40% |
| Justice Hill | 6 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 38% |
| Chase Edmonds | 6 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 37% |
| Samaje Perine | 9 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 35% |
| Jerick McKinnon | 7 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 33% |
| Sony Michel | 5 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 32% |
| Eno Benjamin | 5 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 31% |
| Darrell Henderson | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 29% |
| Alexander Mattison | 7 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 29% |
| D’Andre Swift | 7 | 10 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 28% |
| Tyler Allgeier | 6 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 27% |
| Rex Burkhead | 3 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 27% |
| Nyheim Hines | 3 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 26% |
| Trestan Ebner | 7 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 24% |
| Kenneth Walker III | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 22% |
| Jaylen Warren | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 22% |
| Brandon Bolden | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 21% |
Buy Breece Hall: Hall seeing the massive target volume over Michael Carter in Week 3 is eye-opening. 11 to 2 is massive as is Hall’s work during the 2-minute drill. The Jets RBs’ carries were more split (8 to 11) in favor of Carter. Although they both rushed for 39 yards and Hall out-snapped Carter (51% versus 49%) for the first time all season. Buy Hall now before his massive breakout game. It’s coming. 2 of 1st three NFL games with 9-plus targets for a rookie RB should not be overlooked.
Neither is a 14% air yards share or 23% target share for a running back…
J.K. Dobbins played fewer snaps than Justice Hill (48% versus 43%) in his season debut totaling seven carries for 23 yards with 2 catches for 17 yards added on. Hill looked the part of the more explosive back (six carries for 60 yards) suggesting we have an RB committee at hand till the team turns the backfield over to Dobbins. Exercise patience.
The Denver RBs were heavily involved as receivers Sunday night, with Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon both seizing 5-plus targets.
Williams led the team with 15 carries, followed by Gordon (12), but the usage was more split than in Week 2. Williams played just a 45% snap share to MG3’s 38% with No. 3 RB Mike Boone seeing some playing time (19%). His snap rate was 65% in Week 2.
Gordon also scored the lone rushing TD.
The TD score by the wily veteran will likely have Williams managers soured, so I’d be all over buying low ahead of a matchup versus the 0-3 Raiders.
The fact that Williams totaled 20 opportunities (10 in 1st half) on a sub-50% snap share is evidence enough they want to get the ball in his hands, and that there’s room for him to grow. Also, Boone’s 19% snap share was a season-high and not likely a trend.
This team is featuring Leonard Fournette until the wheels fall off. The Bucs RB posted an absurd 91% snap share and 100% opportunity in Week 3 totaling 17 touches for 70 scoreless yards. The dude’s usage is out of control and the lack of points he’s scoring is not going to sustain with this heavy workload.
He’s a buy for me as is the No. 2 RB Rachaad White. Fournette has had trouble staying healthy in the past so there is some concern he breaks down at some point.
Jeff Wilson also saw a ton of usage (73% snap share) as the 49ers RB1 rushing for 75 yards on just 12 carries. He also caught all three of his targets while running a route on 58% of dropbacks. No. 2 RB Jordan Mason saw just one touch playing 9% of the snaps. Locked-and-loaded fantasy RB2 until Elijah Mitchell returns.
Henry posted a 90% opportunity share in Week 3 with 20 carries alongside 6 targets – matching his career high. The 5 catches were the 2nd-most he’s ever had in a game.
Henry’s route participation was only slightly higher than it was in Weeks 1-2, so I do want to see this usage continue before jumping to a huge conclusion above a massive receiving role for Henry in the coming weeks.
Rashaad Penny led the team with 14 carries for 66 yards in Week 3 (69% snap share). No other RB had more than 3 carries giving Penny a 56% opportunity share. Although rookie Kenneth Walker did get three targets for the second straight week.
Cordarrelle Patterson (ATL – RB)
Cordarrelle Patterson is still not seeing any worthwhile role as a receiver…One target again for a second straight week. But getting it done as a rusher. 17 carries for 141 yards and 1 score. But because Atlanta doesn’t project to be protecting many leads for the remainder of the season, C-Patt’s Week 3 performance is the perfect time to sell high.
Look before the haters see. Cam Akers averaged 5.1 yards per carry on a team-leading 12 attempts with a rushing TD. Darrell Henderson Jr. had just four carries and one target.
Although not everything was great. Zero targets and he fumbled at the goal line in the 4th quarter. And after being out-snapped by Henderson in Week 2, the duo split snaps exactly 50/50, with Akers obviously being more involved on a touch basis.
And Akers’ touches almost exclusively came in the second half. In the first half, he had just 2 carries for -1 yards to Henderson’s 4 for 17.
Henderson also has superior route participation (56% versus 15%).
All things considered, I think the wise move is to put Akers on the trade block. The Rams offense isn’t as good as it was last season and Akers still hasn’t done enough to completely bury Henderson as the no doubt RB1 in the offense. Factor in a brutal matchup versus San Fran in Week 4 and the time to sell Akers is now… as painful as it is to admit for someone that was very high on Akers this offseason.
James Robinson put together another RB1 performance in Week 3: 20 touches for 116 yards and 1 TD (58% snap share). But don’t overlook the usage by second-year RB Travis Etienne Jr. who also saw steady work with 16 touches for 75 yards on a 43% snap share.
Simply put, you want to acquire pieces of this ascending Jags offense and ETN’s perception as the No.2 back makes him attainable.
Austin Ekeler’s usage has not been great this season. His Week 3 snap rate (56%) has been his season-long average as he continues to lose snaps to a combination of Joshua Kelley and Sony Michel. He had just four carries for 5 yards. And for the second straight week, he lost red-zone opportunities to one of his backups. Two of Kelley’s three touches came inside the Jaguars’ 20-yard line.
But like in Week 2, Ekeler racked up a ton of receptions – 8 catches for 48 yards – to salvage his fantasy day.
Even so, the constant effort to get guys like Michel and Kelley involved might hurt Ekeler’s fantasy value in the long term. His overall volume won’t be the same as last season when he scored 20 TDs. I’d be looking to flip him for another stud RB that isn’t seeing as much of a work split load or for an elite WR.
Joe Mixon was a non-factor as a rusher (12 carries for 24 yards) but got the receiving usage yet again. 7 targets. With it now being 3 straight weeks of him going scoreless despite bell-cow usage (66% snap share in Week 3) the Bengals RB is a screaming buy. Went 0-3 for his touches inside the 5-yard line in Week 3. Positive TD regression is coming his way…
Ezekiel Elliott rushed 15 times for 73 yards and one TD on Monday night playing on a 64% snap share. He also saw one target. Teammate Tony Pollard also only saw one target but rushed for 105 yards on 13 carries playing on just a 44% snap share. Zeke delivered for fantasy because he scored, which is going to be his situation every week as the inferior and less explosive rusher compared to Pollard.
TOP TAKEAWAYS:
- Nick Chubb (62%) and Kareem Hunt (44%) split snaps again in Week 3, but both guys saw their usual workloads. Hunt has been right around the 15-touch mark all year as he was last season, and Chubb has constantly been getting fed carries – 23 on Thursday night – in the Browns’ Jacoby Brissett-led offense.
- Buy Breece Hall: Hall seeing the massive target volume over Michael Carter in Week 3 is eye-opening. 11 to 2 is massive. Their carries were more split (8 to 11) in favor of Carter. Although they both rushed for 39 yards and Hall out-snapped Carter (51% versus 49%) for the first time all season. Hall also ran more routes. Buy Hall now before his massive breakout game. It’s coming. 2 of 1st three NFL games with 9-plus targets for a rookie RB should not be overlooked.
- Najee Harris (80%, 47) dominated snaps over Jaylen Warren (20%, 12). He also out-touched him 18 to 5. Although Warren looked explosive in his limited touches compiling 30 rushing yards on just four carries. Harris rushed 15 times for 56 yards. Considering Harris’ workload and injury entering the season, Warren needs to be stashed. He’d likely be an immediate plug-in play fantasy RB2 should Harris miss anytime…even in the Steelers’ uninspiring offense.
- Aaron Jones (63%) and A.J. Dillon (53%) split snaps for the third straight week, totaling 12 carries apiece. Jones had one more reception (3 vs 2) but also lost a fumble. Both guys earned RZ touches. Jones has three catches through 1st 3 games, slightly lower than his average last season (3.4). He still remains a sell candidate.
- James Conner: 16 touches for 57 yards in Week 3 (60% snap share). No TDs and 3 catches. He’s still Arizona’s clear-cut RB1, with Darrel Williams (17% snap share) and Eno Benjamin (27% snap share) combining for just 7 touches. If you need to make roster depth, I’m okay with cutting those Zona backups. No guarantee either is a bellcow if/and when Conner goes down.The Cardinals offense (aside from feeding their top-3 WRs) is also not inspiring hope that they can support fantasy production for a lesser-talented RB based on just volume alone.
- Add Craig Reynolds off waivers with D’Andre Swift‘s injury. Reynolds is the biggest threat to Jamaal Williams after he finished last season third in yards after contact per attempt (3.9) on the back of nearly 200 rushing yards in two spot starts in 2021.
- The time is now to sell the TD-dependent Damien Harris, who will feel the biggest impact in a less efficient Patriots offense without Mac Jones. In back-to-back weeks, Rhamondre Stevenson has out-snapped Harris by a vast margin (62% versus 38%).
- Miles Sanders‘ ceiling is always going to be limited by his lack of work as a receiver. Sub-50% route participation with a mobile QB isn’t going to cut it, even with his effectiveness as a rusher.
- Sell Clyde Edwards-Helaire. He’s averaging just under 12 touches per game and finished with zero rushing yards on 7 carries in Week 3. Jerick McKinnon rushed 7 times for 20 yards, ran more routes and saw work in the RZ. Edwards-Helaire is not the exclusively featured goal-line back. Isiah Pacheco also had a carry inside the 10-yard line.
- Chase Edmonds‘ role is bizarre in the Dolphins offense. Takes a backseat to Raheem Mostert in terms of snaps, carries, routes and targets…but gets the goal-line work for two touchdowns. We really need this backfield to become one-dimensional.
- RBs that saw multiple carries inside the 10-yard line that did not score in Week 3 include: Jonathan Taylor (2), James Robinson (2), Kareem Hunt (3), Joe Mixon (3), Devin Singletary (3), Cam Akers (2), James Conner (2).
- Saquon Barkley played 91% of the snaps on Monday night, totaling 18 touches for 126 yards and a rushing TD. Barkley’s 95% backfield opportunity share ranked second to only Leonard Fournette in Week 3. Top-3 fantasy RB ROS.
TIGHT ENDS
| Player | Routes | % of routes run per dropback | Targets | Target Share | Target Rate Per Route Run |
| Mark Andrews | 31 | 91% | 13 | 48% | 42% |
| Darren Waller | 42 | 89% | 5 | 12% | 12% |
| Travis Kelce | 37 | 88% | 8 | 24% | 22% |
| Zach Ertz | 54 | 87% | 10 | 18% | 19% |
| Tyler Higbee | 23 | 85% | 4 | 16% | 17% |
| Cameron Brate | 38 | 84% | 6 | 15% | 16% |
| David Njoku | 27 | 82% | 10 | 32% | 37% |
| George Kittle | 27 | 82% | 5 | 17% | 19% |
| Cole Kmet | 20 | 80% | 3 | 19% | 15% |
| Evan Engram | 32 | 80% | 3 | 8% | 9% |
| Tyler Conklin | 41 | 73% | 8 | 17% | 20% |
| Gerald Everett | 34 | 72% | 6 | 15% | 18% |
| T.J. Hockenson | 31 | 72% | 4 | 11% | 13% |
| Hunter Henry | 28 | 70% | 1 | 3% | 4% |
| Kyle Pitts | 17 | 65% | 8 | 42% | 47% |
| Pat Freiermuth | 21 | 64% | 4 | 13% | 19% |
| Logan Thomas | 35 | 64% | 3 | 7% | 9% |
| Robert Tonyan | 22 | 61% | 7 | 27% | 32% |
| Irv Smith Jr. | 25 | 60% | 6 | 16% | 24% |
| Dawson Knox | 43 | 59% | 4 | 7% | 9% |
| Juwan Johnson | 24 | 57% | 1 | 3% | 4% |
| Dallas Goedert | 23 | 56% | 4 | 12% | 17% |
| Pharaoh Brown | 18 | 55% | 4 | 13% | 22% |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 23 | 53% | 3 | 8% | 13% |
| Albert Okwuegbunam | 21 | 53% | 2 | 6% | 10% |
| Hayden Hurst | 20 | 51% | 2 | 6% | 10% |
| Noah Fant | 23 | 50% | 4 | 9% | 17% |
| Isaiah Likely | 16 | 47% | 2 | 7% | 13% |
| Durham Smythe | 10 | 45% | 3 | 15% | 30% |
| Geoff Swaim | 12 | 43% | 3 | 12% | 25% |
| Austin Hooper | 12 | 43% | 2 | 8% | 17% |
The Bills tight end is nothing more than a boom-bust TD-reliant asset at this point. His route participation isn’t elite anymore and his target rate per route run dipped under 10% in Week 3.
HIGH-VALUE TARGETS:
RED-ZONE TARGETS, AIR YARDS AND DEEP TARGETS
| Player | Air Yards | Air Yards Share | Deep Catches | Deep Targets | Red-Zone Targets | Red-Zone TDs |
| Mark Andrews | 152 | 58% | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Kyle Pitts | 165 | 53% | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 52 | 36% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 46 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| Jelani Woods | 32 | 21% | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Gerald Everett | 74 | 21% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 56 | 20% | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| Zach Ertz | 59 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 67 | 17% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 39 | 17% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Darren Waller | 49 | 13% | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 26 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Irv Smith Jr. | 31 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 37 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 18 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 13 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| O.J. Howard | 19 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 18 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| George Kittle | 16 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 27 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Geoff Swaim | 12 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Austin Hooper | 10 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 21 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 12 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 22 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 7 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Njoku built off his encouraging usage in Week 2, with a breakout performance in Week 3 Thursday night versus the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Browns tight end played on 88% of the offensive snaps and commanded a whopping 32% target share, catching a team-high nine passes on ten targets. Njoku’s big night is a credit to identifying tight ends poised to break out as his every-down role puts him in the best situation to score fantasy points.
Immediately add him off waivers if he was dropped after his lackluster first two weeks. He owns a 25% target share (15 targets) over the last two weeks.
Kyle Pitts’ route participation dipped slightly in Week 3 (65%) but his target usage ballooned. Four deep targets and a whopping 42% target share. Also…47% TARGET RATE PER ROUTE RUN. Guy was targeted on nearly every other route he ran.
Consider the buy-low window slammed shut.
Zach Ertz remains a weekly fantasy TE1. His route participation (87%) and target volume (10 in Week 3) are elite and I’d argue he’s overdue to score. Ertz has just one TD score this season, despite commanding 8 red-zone targets so far.
TOP TAKEAWAYS:
- Move on from TE Albert Okwuegbunam. Just a 32% snap share in Week 3…which is not going to get in done for fantasy football. Especially with rookie Greg Dulcich returning after Week 4.
- George Kittle caught four of his five targets for 28 scoreless yards in his first game of the season. But he played a team-high 91% of the snaps and ran a route on 82% of dropbacks, suggesting that he is fully over the groin injury that sidelined him to start the year. If you are sick of streaming TEs off the waiver wire, Kittle should be your priority trade target.
- Wouldn’t read too much into Hayden Hurst‘s down game. Entered the contest extremely questionable and was out-snapped by Mitchell Wilcox likely as a result of his groin injury.
- Logan Thomas‘ 64% route participation from Week 3 is a good sign as it was a bump from his Week 2 usage (57%). However, it’s still not in the range that we are accustomed to seeing tight ends be reliable for fantasy purposes.
- Pay no attention to Dallas Goedert‘s mediocre snap share (64%) or route participation (56%). He missed a portion of the game dealing with a shin injury.
- Evan Engram is a constant headache. Looks like a prime streamer entering Week 3, but duds out with one catch for nine yards. However, he came extremely close to converting his end-zone target into a score, but failed to get his feet inbounds. And we can’t just completely write him off in an ascending offense with his high-end 80% route participation.
- TEs that saw multiple red-zone targets that did not score in Week 3 include: Zach Ertz (3), Darren Waller (2) and Jonnu Smith (2).
- Robert Tonyan‘s usage continues to progress. Route rate up to 61% in Week 3 and his target rate per route run remains high (32%). Don’t let him slide through waivers. 27% target share versus the Buccaneers.
- Before you blow your waiver wire load on Jelani Woods, just know this. He ran a route on just 26% of dropbacks – fewer than fellow teammate TEs Mo Alie-Cox and Kylen Granson.
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